PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS Obama is reelected but Romney carries a majority of districts

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1 POLIDATA Political Data Analysis DATABASE DEVELOPMENT, ANALYSIS AND PUBLICATION; POLITICAL AND CENSUS DATA; REDISTRICTING SUPPORT CLARK BENSEN POLIDATA 0 HAYWARD RD, P.O. BOX 0 CORINTH, VT 009 Tel: Fax: (hrs) info@polidata.org PUBLISHER OF THE POLIDATA DEMOGRAPHIC AND POLITICAL GUIDES AND ATLASES website: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS Obama is reelected but Romney carries a majority of districts April 0, 0 CLARK BENSEN POLIDATA Political Data Analysis Executive Summary. As the president was reelected in 0, the election results indicated a reduction in the overall support for President Obama, even though areas of the relative strengths for both major parties remained about the same. The reduction of President Obama s overall percentage of the vote from. in 00 to.0 in 0 also resulted in a majority of districts voting for Romney. In the 0 election, the Democrat, incumbent Presidential Vote by Congressional Party Obama/Dem 9 Obama/GOP Romney/GOP Romney/Dem 9 President Obama, won 09 districts while the Republican, former Governor Romney, won. Before the election, the results of the 00 elections were reaggregated for the new districts. While these estimates are just that, being based upon the political data used by political stakeholders during the redistricting cycle, they provide a benchmark for comparison of the 0 election with the 00 election. Based upon the reaggregated results of the 00 elections, the number of districts won by President Obama was and the number won by Senator McCain was 9. With President Obama winning 09 districts in 0, this is a net loss of districts: Romney won Obama 00 district and Obama won McCain districts. While this to 09 break is quite near the breaks for 000 (Bush to Gore 0) and for 90 (Kennedy 0 to Nixon ), this represents the first time since 90 that the winner of the election did not win the popular vote in a majority of the congressional districts. Also, the number of turnover or split districts has hit a low point compared to recent elections at : Republicans in the House are in districts carried by Obama and 9 Democrats are in districts carried by Romney. Of course, there were two other factors at play in how many congressional districts were carried, or won, by each nominee: a) the capture of the U.S. House by the Republicans in the 00 elections; and b) the redistricting cycle following the 00 census. See more about the study at Clark H. Bensen, B.A., J.D., is a consulting data analyst and attorney doing business as POLIDATA Polidata Data Analysis and a publisher of data volumes operating as POLIDATA Demographic and Political Guides. POLIDATA has been involved with a Presidential Results by Congressional District Project for the 9, 9, 99, 99, 000, 00, 00, and now, the 0 Presidential Elections. The results from the 00 elections based upon the compilation by contemporaneous district following the 00 election were for Obama and 9 for McCain. (See PRCD Summary, April 009.) Distillers of Official Data since 9

2 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts, 0 Press Release, April, 0, Page The Project. These conclusions are the result of a months-long study undertaken by POLIDATA POLITICAL DATA ANALYSIS, a demographic and political research firm. The project was sponsored by two national political publications, the ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS, 0, published by NATIONAL JOURNAL, and the COOK POLITICAL REPORT, a non-partisan independent reviewer of congressional politics. The data were collected from state and local election officials for the over 00 county equivalents that contain a portion of more than one congressional district. The 0 presidential election was the first following the 0-0 redistricting phase of the congressional apportionment process. POLIDATA has been involved in the compilation of the Presidential Results by Congressional Districts (PRCD) since the 9 elections. In order to compile estimates for the 00 presidential election under the lines for the new districts, datasets used by redistricting stakeholders during the remap process were used. These datasets were reviewed and used to calculate the 00 election results under both the old (00) lines and the new (0) lines. In some cases adjustments were made to the 00 data to address inconsistencies and in other cases adjustments were made once the results for the 0 elections were estimated for the new lines. For both the 00 and 0 election results, the degree to which the results compiled and estimated by POLIDATA may match those compiled by others will vary by state and district. For 00 the data, collected by precinct, were matched to precinct geography and estimates of the vote were deallocated to each census block that comprised the 00 precinct on the basis of a population factor. For 0 the data were aggregated by POLIDATA from the lowest level of political geography required: county, town/city, ward, or precinct. However, the two main issues that affect the final estimates are a) split precincts and b) centrally reported votes, e.g., those cast as absentee ballots or at early voting centers. The degree to which either or both of the above anomalies will be encountered varies by state and local jurisdiction. In many states there is only an occasional occurrence of either but in other states a substantial portion of the vote is reported as such. In order to account for all votes cast in the presidential election, these votes are allocated to the appropriate low-level geography by a variety of methods. In most cases the non-split votes are allocated on the basis of the congressional votes for the unit. However, in numerous cases the congressional vote was uncontested or unavailable at the same level and other methods of allocation, or factors of adjustment, were used. In most cases, the votes for the other candidates were compiled to some degree. Generally, this included three candidates who appeared on the ballots in many states: Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Virgil Goode. In a few states votes for another candidate may have been included (e.g., Roseanne Barr in California). While a substantial portion of the independent vote Data assistance was provided by the Republican National Committee. District votes for New York were compiled by Skyline Consulting. Fortunately, more states provided the basic information for this project in 0 than previously. Unfortunately, some states could not provide it in time for the project and in a few cases what was provided was problematic. Thus, all data are still preliminary. Appropriately tabulating votes for all offices for all districts, congressional, legislative and local, would greatly facilitate analysis by those who are interested in the political behavior of our representative districts, be they academics, politicians, citizens, or the courts. It would also make the entire vote tabulation process more transparent and thus easier to understand and review so as to assess the integrity of the overall process whereby we peacefully transition political power. Copyright 0. Polidata. All Rights Reserved.

3 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts, 0 Press Release, April, 0, Page is included, it is not complete in these results. To the extent that they were included it is clear that they represented a very small fraction of the vote, generally under %. Moreover, most analysis of the presidential vote by district focuses on the two-party vote. Turnovers and Changes. There were turnover, or split-ticket districts: those that elected a member to the U.S. House that was a party other than the winner of the presidential vote in the district. In 0, Obama won districts that elected a Republican to the th Congress while Romney won 9 districts that elected a Democrat. This represents a dramatic decrease over recent elections. For example, following the 00 elections the overall number of turnovers was and following the 00 elections the number was Figure. Turnover Districts (red: Romney Democrats; blue: Obama Republicans). Of course, as mentioned above, there were at least two events that likely had a major impact on the realignment of the presidential vote by district: a) the takeover of the House by the Republicans in 00; and b) the redistricting phase of the apportionment process that occurred since the 00 elections. Clearly, having more Republicans elected in 00 was of benefit to the Republicans but this was coupled with the enormous success the Republicans had nationwide in 00 in capturing state legislatures, most of which have some impact on the drawing of congressional lines. As the first congressional election under the new lines was to be a presidential one as well, it made sense to make the results of the most recent presidential election in 00 a primary ruler against which all districts were reviewed. Likewise, to many stakeholders it is the generic value of the presidential vote that makes the previous presidential election a good guide for an election to be held in any new district, especially one with a presidential incumbent and/or one without a congressional incumbent on the ballot. In other cases new districts were drafted simply to be a toss-up district and these results from 0 will supply a chance to review those. Using the re-aggregations of the 00 elections it is also possible to compare and see where the overall loss of support for the president translated into a loss or gain over 00. Copyright 0. Polidata. All Rights Reserved.

4 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts, 0 Press Release, April, 0, Page There are districts in which the winner for the 00 elections (under the new lines) was different in 0. Obama won districts that McCain had won and Romney won 0 districts that Obama had won in 00. Compare this with the post-00 election review in which there were districts that changed since the previous election. Following the 00 elections, Obama won districts that Bush had won in 00 and McCain won only district that Kerry had won in 00. Regional Patterns. The results of the analysis confirmed regional patterns of split-ticket voting. In the East, Obama won and Romney won 0 districts. With Democrats in the East, this is a net of + for Obama. (The net here is determined by simply comparing the number of members elected to the House with the number of districts won for the presidential nominees.) In the Midwest, Obama won districts and Romney won. With Democrats, this is a net of + for Obama. In the South, Obama won districts and Romney won. With 0 Democrats in the South, this is a net of - for Obama. In the West, Obama won 0 districts and Romney won. With Democrats in the West, this is a net of + for Obama. Nationally, with 0 Democrats elected in the November 0 elections, and 09 Obama districts, the overall net for Obama is a +. Nationally, following the 00 elections, the net for Obama was -. Figure. Change in Obama % over 00 (lighter shading is a decrease). The 0 elections were the first held after the apportionment mandated by the 00 census so the number of members has changed by state and region. Under the old map, the number of districts won by Obama following the 00 elections was and under the new map, the number won by Obama following the 0 elections was 09. The differential shift was not evenly spread across the four regions of the country. Obama s net gains and losses under the old map and the new map are - in the East; - in the Midwest; - in the South; and + in the West. The loss of support for the president in the Midwest was prevalent in most areas. Of the states with turnover districts, states had each: California; Florida; Minnesota; and New York. There are Obama Republicans in 0 states and Romney Democrats in states. Aside from the single-member at-large states, the number of states in which all districts Copyright 0. Polidata. All Rights Reserved.

5 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts, 0 Press Release, April, 0, Page were carried by Obama is : ME, NH, MA, RI, CT, and HI; the number in which all districts were carried by Romney is : WV, KS, NE, OK, AR, ID and UT. The House delegations after 0 break as follows: with more Democrats than Republicans and 0 with more Republicans than Democrats: delegations are tied (NJ, IA, and NV). President Obama carried a majority of the districts in 0 states and won states for the Electoral College vote. Had there been a uniform application of the Electoral Vote by Congressional District method, Obama would have won votes (09 for each district plus for each of the states he won in the popular vote, plus for DC) versus the actually cast for the ticket. Such a proposal would have given Obama 9.% of the electoral vote. This would result in a difference between his share of the two-party popular vote (.0%) and the Electoral College vote (.%), from a bonus of +9. points to a deficit of -.9 points. District Highlights. The study also highlights some other factoids about the presidential election from the perspective of a tally by congressional district. For example: The top five Obama districts are: Jose Serrano (NY:) at 9%; Charlie Rangel (NY:) at 90%; Chaka Fattah (PA:) at 90%; Gregory Meeks (NY:) at 90%; and Hakeem Jeffries (NY:) at 9%. The top five Romney districts are: Mac Thornberry (TX:) at 0%; Michael Conaway (TX:) at 9%;Jason Chaffetz (UT:) at 9%; Doug Collins (GA:9) at %, and Rob Bishop (UT:) at %. There are five Obama districts currently held by Republicans in the House in which Obama received more than % of the vote: Gary Miller (CA:) at %; David Valadao (CA:) at %; Frank LoBiondo (NJ:) at %; Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL:) at %; and Jon Runyan (NJ:) at %. There are five Romney districts currently held by Democrats in the House in which Romney received more than % of the vote: Jim Matheson (UT:) at %; Nick Rahall (WV:) at %; Mike McIntyre (NC:) at 9%;John Barrow (GA:) at %; Collin Peterson (MN:) at %. The 9 Romney Democrats are found in states: AZ (); FL; GA; MN; NC; TX; UT; and WV. The Obama Republicans are found in 0 states: CA (); CO; FL (); IA, MN (); NV, NJ (); NY (); VA; and WA. There are districts that voted for McCain in 00 but for Obama in 00: Michael Grimm (NY:); and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL:). There are 0 districts that voted for Obama in 00 but Romney in 0: 0 of these 0 are in four states with in Michigan; in Pennsylvania; in Illinois; and in Wisconsin. There are districts in which the margin that determined the presidential winner was under %: Obama won 0 of them and Romney won. The degree to which the party caucuses of the U.S. House change vis-à-vis the generic vote for President continues to change over the decades. Both caucuses now have more than 90% of their members in districts that voted for their party s nominee for President (9% for the Democrats and 9% for the Republicans). With only 09 districts voting for Obama, and only Obama Republicans, the pool of members to whom the Obama White House can appeal has shrunk. Voter Turnout. This project once again confirms the variation in the turnout amongst districts and how this translates into a disparity of the weight of a vote depending upon where Nebraska and Maine actually use the Congressional District vote for their electoral votes. Unlike 00, there was no breakup of these delegations: ME: for Obama; NE: for Romney. Copyright 0. Polidata. All Rights Reserved.

6 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts, 0 Press Release, April, 0, Page one resides. Even in California, the range of the district with the largest number of votes cast for president, Waxman (CA:) with,000 votes, was nearly times greater than the number of votes cast for president in the district with the smallest number of votes, Valadao (CA:) with 9,000 votes: each vote cast in CA: had the weight of votes cast in CA:. Excluding the single-member at-large states, the average vote in the ten districts with the highest number of votes for president was 0,000; the average vote in the ten districts with the lowest number of votes for president was 0,000, a ratio of.9. [D:\poligeo\us\amb\0\wpr_prcd_md0b.doc~//0 ::00 PM] Copyright 0. Polidata. All Rights Reserved.