18 th UBS South African Financial Services Conference Beyond South Africa

Transcription

1 NEDBANK GROUP LIMITED 18 th UBS South African Financial Services Conference Beyond South Africa October 2015 Mfundo Nkuhlu, Chief Operating Officer

2 Agenda The Nedbank Group journey Nedbank share price (Rand) Context Operating in rest of Africa will be volatile but the long-term potential remains intact Key strategic considerations Client centred following our clients Capital efficient prudent deployment of capital Risk mitigated with diversification benefits Nedbank Group Rest of Africa strategy SADC & East Africa own, manage & control banks Central & West Africa partnership approach Rest of Africa investment banking opportunities Conclusion Nedbank Group s unique & differentiated strategy 2

3 The Nedbank Group journey Competing strongly in SA, while laying foundations in rest of Africa 2014 onwards Delivering the Rest of Africa strategy Nedbank Group Headline Earnings (Rm) Nedbank Rest of Africa Headline Earnings (Rm)

4 Operating in rest of Africa will be volatile Commodity prices (Indices in USD$) Key risks Recurring pandemics Resource-reliant economies, but becoming more diversified Improving, but still weak corporate governance Food Metals All commodities Industrial commodities Brent Crude Oil Political & social unrest Sub-Saharan Africa economic growth (%) Uncertain legal & GDP growth 2,0-3,5x that of SA property rights Poor infrastructure Currency volatility & liquidity challenges

5 but the long-term potential remains intact Potential growth versus risk over time Illustration of selected countries in key regions Key drivers Risk ¹ Low uneven growth, higher risk Lower risk, but more limited opportunity Kenya Tourism Good ports & trade corridor Entrepreneurial Business friendly Namibia 00 Advanced, mixed economy Large projects underway Generally good policies 00 Nigeria Large population: 270m Rich oil reserves Better economic policies electricity privatisation SA Higher potential, but higher risk Good overall potential Growth Potential² Source: Nedbank Economic Unit 1: Risk a function of country risk, economic freedom 2: Growth potential a function of GDP per capita, demographics & business conditions Mozambique Oil & gas field discoveries Resource rich & economically exploitable even at current prices SA linkages Infrastructure development Demographics shifts Natural resources Financial services penetration Regional integration & trade Urbanisation Diversifying economies Generally better policies 5

6 Agenda The Nedbank Group journey Nedbank share price (Rand) Context Operating in rest of Africa will be volatile but the long-term potential remains intact Key strategic considerations Client centred following our clients Capital efficient prudent deployment of capital Risk mitigated with diversification benefits Nedbank Group Rest of Africa strategy SADC & East Africa own, manage & control banks Central & West Africa partnership approach Rest of Africa investment banking opportunities Conclusion Nedbank Group s unique & differentiated strategy 6

7 Client-centred SA corporates are expanding into the rest of Africa 7

8 Client-centred SA corporates are expanding into the rest of Africa Source: Ecobank Nedbank Alliance data and Group Strategy analysis. 8 Namibia Botswana Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Lesotho Malawi Mauritius DRC Angola Seychelles Tanzania Kenya Uganda Rwanda Sudan Ethiopia Madagascar Burundi Nigeria Ghana Burkina Faso Mali Côte d'ivoire Guinea Senegal Sierra Leone Benin Other West Africa Algeria Egypt Other North Africa Number of SA listed corporates present in each country Cameroon Rep of the Congo Gabon Other Central Africa Nedbank s clients, as with many JSE-listed companies, are concentrated in SADC but are expanding into West & East Africa SADC (excl. Tanzania) ** # + + SA listed corporates presence in Rest of Africa Legend: Nedbank SA clients Non SA Nedbank client Top 3 ETI country & Nigeria East Africa * ETI presence Nedbank presence No ETI / Nedbank presence West Africa North Africa + Nedbank and Ecobank presence * Ecobank rep office # Nedbank rep office** Nedbank and Ecobank rep offices Central Africa

9 Capital efficient prudent deployment of capital for the long-term Invested to become c20% ETI shareholder ETI investment (30 June 2015): - Cost: R5,9bn - Book value: R5,6bn - Market value: R6,4bn Entry price of less than 1,0x NAV Long-term strategic shareholding & alliance Capital deployed Average capital deployed in Rest of Africa & percentage of Group Ordinary Shareholders Equity (Rbn, %) Value created from day 1 (ETI transaction) Return on investment (annualised) (as at 30 June 2015) 2,4% 3,7% 3,6% 5,7% 10,5% % % % YE ETI Return on investment ETI Funding cost Carry 9

10 Capital efficient Regulatory roll up : implication of banks transitioning from Basel I to Basel III At 20% shareholding a holding bank does not have to underwrite risk e.g. AML & capital structures are usually more efficient Many African banks are primarily retail funded, placing excess liquidity into government stock or other banks: Illustrative bank: Rest of Africa domiciled & country rated 6 by OECD Balance sheet structure: Client advances: 40% Government stock & other banks exposure: 45% Large trading book Immaterial level of reserves that qualify as capital High levels of intangible assets Credit risk Basel I Basel III Government exposure 0% risk weighted 100% risk weighted Other banks 20% 100% Retail credit 120% 80% Off balance sheet 0% <100% Market risk Not measured STD: Net open book ADV: Stressed VAR Operational risk Not measured Gross income x 18% Equity risk Risk weighted at 300% / 400% Risk weighted at 300% / 400% Other risk Risk weighted at 100% Risk weighted at 100% Qualifying capital & reserves Reserves (incl FCTR) Do not qualify Qualifies (FCTR volatile) Intangible assets Not a deduction Deduction Goodwill at acquisition Not a deduction Deduction CET 1 ratio Capital position can reduce significantly 10

11 Risk mitigated with diversification benefits Small, but growing Rest of Africa advances % of Group (30 June 2015) Exposure within risk appetite Nedbank exposures (30 June 2015) Ecobank diversification benefits ETI vs Nigerian Bank index Based to 100 (1 Jan 2014) 15.2% 4.0% 12.6% 12.8% % 10.1% % Exposure within risk appetite Nedbank Bank A Bank B Bank C 70.6% Exposure within risk appetite West & Central Africa SADC East Africa c20% ETI shareholding 50 Exposure within ETI risk appetite Nigerian Bank Index 0 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Current exposure low, but growing in line with risk appetite Exposures concentrated in markets where we own, manage & control banks (SADC) c20% shareholding in ETI limits exposure to oil-based economies 28 year track record & strong position in Central & West Africa On the ground presence & local knowledge across 36 countries Benefits of a diversified portfolio 11

12 Agenda The Nedbank Group journey Nedbank share price (Rand) Context Operating in rest of Africa will be volatile but the long-term potential remains intact Key strategic considerations Client centred following our clients Capital efficient prudent deployment of capital Risk mitigated with diversification benefits Nedbank Group Rest of Africa strategy SADC & East Africa own, manage & control banks Central & West Africa partnership approach Rest of Africa investment banking opportunities Conclusion Nedbank Group s unique & differentiated strategy 12

13 A strong positioning in Africa The Banker Magazine Top 10 banks in Africa (July 2015) Region rank World rank Bank Country Tier 1 Capital ($m) Standard Bank SA 10, FirstRand SA 7, Nedbank Group SA 4, Attijariwafa Bank Morocco 3, Groupe Banques Populaire Morocco 3, Zenith Bank Nigeria 3, Ecobank Transnational Togo 3, Investec SA 2, National Bank of Egypt Egypt 2, First Bank of Nigeria Nigeria 2,327 Source: The Banker Magazine, July 2015 Note: Barclays Africa Group excluded from the main rankings as it is a subsidiary of Barclays, but would have come in at #3 with a Tier 1 capital base of $6,1bn 13

14 Multi-pillar strategy leveraging unique strengths SADC & East Africa Central & West Africa Investment banking in rest of Africa Own, manage & control banks Partnership approach Investment banking deals Nedbank currently in 6 countries Ecobank presence in 36 countries Banco Unico control in 2016 #1 in Ghana, #6 & SIFI in Nigeria Concluded deals in 24 countries Expand to 10 countries over time Top 3 in 14 countries Nedbank existing presence Expansion opportunities Ecobank Top 3 in country Ecobank other Ecobank rep offices Investment banking deals Nedbank rep offices Collaboration with Old Mutual Access to unmatched banking network across 39 countries & >2000 outlets 14

15 SADC & East Africa own, manage & control banks Build strong foundations Invest in existing subsidiaries Acquisitions Number of clients Reconstituted subsidiary boards Standardised operating model Banco Unico - 37% shareholding (Moz) Central oversight & control Core IT system replacement (Flexcube) Banco Unico control (50-70%) Review risk appetite Investing in products, digital platforms & distribution Acquisition opportunities Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Jun 15 Branches Scale in existing operations 17 Advances market share Completed In progress To be delivered Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Jun 15 ATMs 19.1% 18.4% 12.3% 4.2% 3.4% 0.8% Banco Unico Swaziland Lesotho Namibia Mozambique Zimbabwe Malawi Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Jun 15 15

16 Central & West Africa partnership approach Evolving strategic Relationship with Ecobank Dec 2008 Announced Ecobank Nedbank strategic alliance Dec 2011 $285m loan to ETI & 20% subscription rights Oct 2014 Exercised 20% rights & invested R5,9bn to become c20% shareholder in ETI Board membership Oct 2015 ETI investment banking team colocated into Nedbank Sandton offices Value through board representation & strategic alliance Board participation A seat on the ETI Board Participated in selection of new CE Like-minded shareholders - Nedbank: 20% - QNB*: 18% - IFC: 15% - PIC: 13% Strategic & technical banking alliance Quarterly alliance steerco meetings Workgroups across all clusters Technical working groups e.g. - BSM e.g. Capital optimisation - IT e.g. Flexcube Dealflow Successes to date (examples) 2 joint deals completed 2015 YTD Strong pipeline Transactional 70 Nedbank wholesale clients banked by Ecobank SAA Voyager / Ecobank co-branded credit card Joint exhibitor stand at the SIBOS conference Regional card initiative - Ecobank debit card holders, can withdraw cash from their accounts at any Nedbank ATM in SA * Post preference share conversion, QNB shareholding estimated to be ~20% 16

17 Rest of Africa investment banking deals concluded in 24 countries Strong growth outside of SA Evolving partnership a potential key differentiator Investment banking loans & advances (Rbn) 90 Continued growth opportunities in areas of CIB strength: Infrastructure Energy 60 Commercial property Trade finance 30 0 H H South Africa H H H Outside South Africa Likely muted demand given macro developments: Resources & commodities Oil & gas Local knowledge On the ground origination force Structuring capabilities Underwriting & fronting of large transactions in line with risk appetite Access to foreign currency funding Other strategic partners 17

18 Agenda The Nedbank Group journey Nedbank share price (Rand) Context Operating in rest of Africa will be volatile but the long-term potential remains intact Key strategic considerations Client centred following our clients Capital efficient prudent deployment of capital Risk mitigated with diversification benefits Nedbank Group Rest of Africa strategy SADC & East Africa own, manage & control banks Central & West Africa partnership approach Rest of Africa investment banking opportunities Conclusion Nedbank Group s unique & differentiated strategy 18

19 Conclusion unique & differentiated strategy Banking presence across 39 countries Local knowledge Ability to service our clients across the most extensive banking network in Africa Strategy tailored for each region SADC & East Africa own, manage & control banks Central & West Africa partnership approach Investment banking deals leveraging relationships, expertise, skills & resources Collaboration with Old Mutual Positioned for upside potential, with downside protection Exposure within Board approved risk appetite Diversification benefits Cognisant of regulatory implications (Basel III, AML etc) ETI value creative from day 1 c20% ETI investment at less than 1,0x price to book on the back of 6 year strategic partnership Long-term play, but demonstrate growth & returns in the short-to-medium term 19

20 THANK YOU 20