CB RICHARD ELLIS. Quarterly Survey Japanese Real Estate Investment

Transcription

1 CB RICHARD ELLIS Quarterly Survey Japanese Real Estate Investment Vol. 31, April 2011

2 Notes to Editors 1. Objective The objective of the survey is to collect and analyze the data conducive to looking at the level of expected yield for real estate investments. 2. Survey method and period Sent and received by during April 5 to 15, (Note: Replies after deadline were also accepted.) 3. Recipients surveyed and reply rate Recipients: 203 individuals (202 corporations) Replies: 142 individuals (142 corporations) Reply rate: 70.0% by individuals (70.3% by corporations) 4. Types of respondents Arrangers, Lenders (senior), Lenders (mezzanine), Developers, Real property lessors, Asset managers (Mainly for JREITs), Asset managers (Mainly for nonjreits), Equity investors, etc. 5. Policy regarding the release of survey results This report is an excerpt of the results from our quarterly survey (Please refer to the list on page 10 for all of the surveyed items) Although CBRE Research started tracking quarterly data beginning in July 2003, only the data beyond July 2007 are publicly released. Fullreport of the survey results is available only for the respondents. Those who wish to obtain detailed survey results may participate in the survey. The survey is open to the players actually involved in real estate investment, either directly or indirectly. Disclaimer Results of the survey are based on the opinion of the players in the real estate investment market, who responded to the questionnaire survey conducted by CB Richard Ellis Research Institute (hereinafter refered to as CBRE )and, as such, does not necessarily represent the opinion of all players in the market. Also, the results are not based on actual transactions. The results of the survey are based on an assumed property of a certain category. It is not necessarily applicable to actual individual properties in specific or general means, whether they fall into the category or not. The figures have proportionate deviation according to the nature of the survey and the sample number. Although CBRE expends all possible means to ensure accuracy of the data based on the results of the survey, it shall be exempt from responsibility for the accuracy of the figures. CBRE does not make any asurance, whether it is suitable or complete for the user s specific purposes or commercial use. The survey results should be used under the responsibility of the users. CBRE shall not be responsible, in any event, for damages incurred by the user of a thirdparty due to the use of the survey results. CBRE is entitled to correct the released data anytime, and cease or discontinue the release of the data without notice. Page 2

3 I. Office Building Assume that you are to invest in the following office building. Location: Tenure: Age: Size: Otemachi, Chiyodaku, Tokyo. 100% ownership. Less than 5 years old. Over 500 tsubo typical floor plate (NRA); 20 to 25 stories. Main Features: Raised floors; floortoceiling height over 2,800mm; individually controllable air conditioning zones. Lease: Others: Multitenant, based on normal lease contract (not fixed term). Assume that rent and operating expense are on average. : Tokyo (Otemachi) Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /7 0 ~ 4.20 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 4.70 Vol / ~ 4.75 Vol /7 0 ~ 4.80 Vol /10 0 ~ 4.80 Vol /1 0 ~ 4.80 Vol /4 0 ~ 4.75 Vol / ~ 4.70 Vol / ~ 4.70 Vol / ~ 4.70 Vol / ~ 4.70 : Tokyo (Otemachi) Page 3

4 Location: Prime office building in Osaka and Nagoya. : Osaka (Overall) Vol / ~ 5.60 Vol / ~ 5.70 Vol / ~ 5.30 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /7 0 ~ 5.80 Vol / ~ 5 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 6.70 Vol / ~ 6.95 Vol /10 0 ~ 0 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 0 ~ 6.90 Vol /7 0 ~ 6.95 Vol /10 0 ~ 0 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 0 ~ 6.90 : Nagoya (Overall) Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 5.60 Vol /7 0 ~ 5.80 Vol / ~ 6.20 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /7 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 7.10 Vol / ~ 7.15 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 7.10 Vol / ~ 7.10 Vol / ~ 7.10 Vol / ~ 7.10 : Osaka (Overall) : Nagoya (Overall) Page 4

5 II. Multifamily Residential Building Assume that you are to invest in a multifamily residential building. Studio type apartment Location: Within 10minutes walk from the nearest station. In Tokyo Central 5 Wards (Chiyodaku, Chuoku, Minatoku, Shinjukuku or Shibuyaku). Age: Less than 5 years old. Size: Approx. 25sqm; approx. 50units in total. Others: Assume that the rental level, the levels of operating expenses, and that equipment grade are on average, and that the maintenance is in good condition. : Studio type apartment, Tokyo (Central 5 Wards) Vol /7 Vol /10 0 ~ 5.10 Vol / ~ 5.30 Vol /4 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 5.75 Vol /10 0 ~ 6.20 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 0 ~ 0 Vol /7 0 ~ 0 Vol /10 0 ~ 5 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 6.20 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /10 0 ~ 0 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 0 ~ 0 * Survey of started from Vol. 17 : Studio Type, Tokyo (Central 5 Wards) Page 5

6 Multiroom type (nonstudio type) Location: Residential area in the Jonan/ Josai area in Tokyo (Southern and western part of Tokyo) Age: Less than 5years old Size: Approx sqm (3LDK(Three bedrooms, LR, DR and kitchen)); approx. 50units in total Others: Assume that the rental level, the levels of operating expenses, and that equipment grade are on average, and that the maintenance is in good condition. : Multiroom type, Tokyo (Jonan/Josai area) Vol /7 Vol / ~ 5.25 Vol /1 0 ~ 5.40 Vol /4 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 5.90 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 6.73 Vol /7 0 ~ 6.75 Vol /10 0 ~ 6.70 Vol /1 0 ~ 5 Vol / ~ 6.30 Vol / ~ 6.20 Vol / ~ 6.20 Vol / ~ 6.10 Vol / ~ 0 * Survey of started from Vol. 17 : Multiroom type rental apartment, Tokyo (Jonan/Josai area) Page 6

7 III. Retail Assume that you are to invest in the following retail facility. Location: Tokyo (Ginza Chuo Dori). Other: Multitenant building in premium retail area that luxury brands would select. : Tokyo (Ginza Chuo Dori) Vol /7 Vol /10 Vol /1 Vol /4 Vol /7 Vol /10 Vol / ~ 4.90 Vol /4 0 ~ 0 Vol /7 0 ~ 5.10 Vol / ~ 5.10 Vol / ~ 5.20 Vol /4 5 ~ 5.15 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /10 0 ~ 0 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 0 ~ 0 * Survey of started from Vol. 22 : Multitenant building, Tokyo (Ginza Chuo Dori) Page 7

8 IV. Hotel Assume that you are to invest in the following budget hotel. Cash flow based on management contract Location: Within five minutes walk of a major JR station. In Tokyo s central 5 wards (Chiyodaku, Chuoku, Minatoku, Shinjukuku or Shibuyaku). Age: Type: Size: Room rate: Approximately 5 years old. Hotel providing budget accommodation. Approximately 100 rooms. Occupancy: Approx. 80%. Other: 8,000 yen/night for a single room. Operation is outsourced. : CF Based on management contract, Tokyo (Central 5 Wards) Vol /7 Vol /10 Vol /1 Vol /4 Vol /7 Vol /10 Vol / ~ 7.40 Vol / ~ 7.83 Vol / ~ 7.70 Vol /10 0 ~ 7.80 Vol /1 0 ~ 7.90 Vol / ~ 7.75 Vol / ~ 0 Vol /10 0 ~ 0 Vol / ~ 0 Vol / ~ 7.30 * Survey of started from Vol : CF Based on management contract, Tokyo (Central 5 Wards) Page 8

9 V. Industrial Assume that you are to invest in the following warehouse and distribution facility. Location: Tokyo Bay area (By Tokyo Bay Area, we refer to the adjoining parts of Tokyo, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures which make up Tokyo Bay). Age: Other: Less than 5 to 10 years of fixedterm lease. Multitenant facility. : Tokyo Bay area Vol /7 Vol /10 Vol /1 Vol /4 Vol /7 Vol /10 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 0 ~ 6.80 Vol /7 0 ~ 6.90 Vol / ~ 6.90 Vol / ~ 6.95 Vol /4 5 ~ 6.85 Vol /7 0 ~ 5 Vol /10 0 ~ 0 Vol /1 0 ~ 0 Vol /4 5 ~ 0 * Survey of started from Vol. 22 : Multitenant facility, Tokyo (Bay area) Page 9

10 Survey items Following are items in our quarterly survey. Sector Subcategory Location Survey items Office building Prime Otemachi HibiyaUchisaiwaicho ToranomonKamiyacho TameikeAkasakamitsuke AoyamaOmotesando NOI / NCF cap rate *1 Valuation method for office buildings Investment period Comments on cash flow Shinbashi, Hamamatsucho, Shiba analysis Nihonbashi Opinion regarding the risk Shibuya premium in the cases of Ebisu different ownership and Nishishinjuku compliance status (not a Kandaaround Kudan Shinagawa (Konan exit) regularly surveyed item) Yokohama (West exit) Omiya Sapporo Sendai Nagoya (Overall) Nagoya (Nagoya station) Osaka (Overall) Osaka (Umeda) Hiroshima Fukuoka Multifamily residential building Studio type Multiroom type Tokyo Central 5 Wards Sapporo Sendai Nagoya Osaka Fukuoka Tokyo (Jonan/Josai area) Sapporo Sendai Nagoya Osaka Fukuoka NOI / NCF cap rate Comments Items to be included in the cashflow (not a regularly surveyed item) Retail Hotel Industrial *1 About Cap Rate Stores located in the city center Roadside shopping center Shortterm observation for Market Survey (CBRE Tankan) Topic Question *2 Premium retail area Budget hotel (CF Based on management contract) Budget hotel (CF Based on lease contract) Multitenant Singletenant Near railroad terminal stations, central Tokyo Tokyo suburbs Osaka suburbs Nagoya suburbs Sapporo city Sendai city Fukuoka city Tokyo Ginza Chuo Dori Tokyo Omotesando Nagoya around Sakae Osaka along Midosuji Fukuoka along Tenjin Nishi Dori Near major JR stations, Tokyo Central 5 Wards Governmentdesignated city Prefectural capital city Near major JR stations, Tokyo Central 5 Wards Governmentdesignated city Prefectural capital city Tokyo Bay area Tokyo Inland area Aichi Osaka Fukuoka Tokyo Bay area Tokyo Inland area Aichi Osaka Fukuoka NOI / NCF cap rate Comments NOI / NCF cap rate Assumed amount for the maintenance of FF&E Assumed rental level Comments NOI / NCF cap rate Comments Observing changes in the periods of "Recent", "3 months from now", and "1 year from now", covering Grade A buildings and others located in Tokyo 23 wards, using DI (Diffusion Index). Questions concerned with uptodate events and topics in the real estate industry : Minimum and Maximum of the range of Median, Average, Highest, Lowest and Standard deviation NCF cap rate: Minimum and Maximum of the range of Median, Average, Highest, Lowest and Standard deviation Some of the questions include result by respondent type. *2 About Topic Question The recent surveys included the following questionnaires: Sustainability (ecology) and real estate, loan conditions and recent movements by subsector of real estate (by five degree answers, from excellent to very poor), as well as catalysts and obstacles for recovery of the Tokyo office market. Page 10

11 FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: Junko Maeda, Kaoru Kurisu CB Richard Ellis, Research T investmentsurvey@cbre.co.jp Page 11