Real Estate Market Research Report

Transcription

1 April, 21 Real Estate Market Research Report VOL.65 Prepared by Real Estate Consulting Division Topics: Increase in Real Estate Transactions Signs of Unfreezing the Real Estate Market In fiscal 29, the real estate market continued the downturn that had commenced the previous year, following the significant damage caused by the failure of Lehman Brothers. According to the public notice of land prices announced in March 21, the year-on-year decrease grew, and the number of transactions in fiscal 29 fell from the previous year. However, looking only at the second half of fiscal 29, the number of transactions increased, showing signs of a recovery in real estate transactions. In this report, we will consider which movements have caused the increase in the number of transactions. 1. Real Estate Market Continued Deteriorating in Fiscal 29 (1) Public Notice of Land Prices Fell Continuously from the Previous Year The real estate market, which slowed significantly associated with the failure of Lehman Brothers in fiscal 28, showed little recovery in fiscal 29, primarily due to the worsening of the real economy. Demand for offices plunged as cost reductions were implemented by companies, and numerous stores were closed on the back of weak consumption. In addition, there was a low willingness to purchase houses because of reduced individual income levels. According to the public notice of land prices announced in March 21, the national averages of the fluctuation ratios were -4.6% (-3.5%) year on year for all property types, -6.1% (-4.7%) for the commercial zone, and -4.2% (-3.2%) for the residential zone, posting year-on-year decreases for the second consecutive year. These results led to the widespread acknowledgement of the continuous fall in real estate prices. Percentage in parenthesis indicates last year s figure For example, looking at the trends in the fluctuation ratio in Tokyo 23-wards, we find that in 21, the significant decline has continued since the previous year (Diagram 1). In particular, the commercial zone has recorded a larger fall than it did the previous year, indicating the seriousness of the deterioration in the market. In the prime location in CBD Tokyo, where both land prices and rents surged during the market boom, more than a few properties were seen to fall by more than 2%. - 1

2 (Diagram 1) Trends in Fluctuation Ratio of Public Notice of Land Prices in Tokyo 23-wards Public Notice of Land Prices % 2 Residential Zone Commercial Zone (Source) Prepared by MUTB based on published information (2) Fall in both the Number and Amount of Transactions Next, attention should be paid to the number and amount of real estate transactions. Diagram 2 shows the number of real estate transactions based on the sale and purchase information disclosed to the Tokyo Stock Exchange and others on a daily basis. In fiscal 28, both the number and amount of transactions fell almost to one third of the preceding fiscal year s levels. The fall continued in fiscal 29, indicating the limited movements in the real estate market. However, it is essential to pay attention to the trends in each half year. When looking at the results for each half year, we can see that the results in the second half of fiscal 29 surpassed those for the same period of the previous year, both in the number and amount of transactions (Diagram 3). In particular, toward the end of the fiscal year, the hitherto sluggish market had started to move, little by little. In terms of property types, offices and residences took the lead in the increase, followed by commercial zones, warehouses & logistics, and factories. In other words, all property types showed increases (Diagram 4). We will now examine the factors that triggered the transaction increases and consider whether or not this trend will be further triggered going forward. - 2

3 (Diagram 2) Trends in the Number and Amount of Transactions in the fiscal year based on disclosed transaction information. (JPY 1 mil) 45, (Number of Deals) 1,8 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Transaction Amount (LHS) Number of Transactions (RHS) FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information (Diagram 3) Trends in the Number and Amount of Transactions in each half of the fiscal year. (JPY 1 mil) 25, 22,5 2, 17,5 15, 12,5 1, 7,5 5, 2,5 Transaction 取引金額 Amount ( 左 (LHS) 軸 ) Number 取引件 of Transactions 数 ( 右軸 (RHS) ) (Number of Deals) 1, FY 25 FY 25 FY 26 FY 26 FY 27 FY 27 FY 28 FY 28 FY 29 FY 29 (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information. - 3

4 (Diagram 4) Trends in the number of Transactions by Property Types in each half of fiscal year. (Number of Transaction) Office Residential Retail Warehouse / Logistics Industrial (Factory) FY 25 FY 26 FY 26 FY 27 FY 27 FY 28 FY 28 FY 29 FY 29 (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information. 2. Transaction Trend by Player ( 1) J-REIT Transactions Whose Presence Has Increased Again With the public offering announced by the Nippon Accommodations Fund in October 29, the public offerings made by J-REITs, which had been frozen for more than a year, resumed, and successive property acquisitions were made by spending the money raised (Diagram 5). Nippon Accommodations Fund acquired 18 properties for a total of JPY 42.6 billion immediately after the capital increase, and there were other funds that acquired several properties as well. The ratio of the number of transactions in which the purchasers were J-REITs in all the disclosed information on purchases and sales recovered significantly toward the second half of fiscal 29 (Diagram 6). (Diagram 5) Public Offerings and Property Acquisition by J-REITs in the of FY 29 Including those not acquired immediately after the public officering. Capital Increase Announcement JREIT Amount (JPY mil) 29.1 Nippon Accommodations Fund 2,124 Residential: KENEDIX Realty Investment Corporation 8,156 Office: Nomura Real Estate Residential Fund 8,3 Residential: Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation 26,752 Office: Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation 14,614 Office: Japan Logistics Fund 5,425 Logistics: Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation 14,919 Office: 2 (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published Information. Property Acquisition Records - 4

5 (Diagram 6) Trends in the ratio of the number of transactions by J-REITs. 6% 5% Purchase Sell 4% 3% 2% 1% % FY 25 FY 25 FY 26 FY 26 FY 27 FY 27 2nd Half FY 28 FY 28 FY 29 FY 29 (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information At the same time, the ratio of sellouts also increased in line with the increase in acquisitions. Some investment corporations dealt with the need to reduce principal at the time of refinancing loans by selling some of the properties they owned. The fact that Invincible Investment Corporation sold 25 properties as a portfolio transaction after the merger is still fresh in our memories. One of the factors triggering the disposals was that it became easier to sell properties whose sales price may be lower than the acquisition price due to reduced profitability, while limiting the influence on dividends by making use of the negative goodwill generated by the merger. Meanwhile, Tokyu REIT, Inc. attracted public attention when it sold the Ryoshin Harajuku Building to avoid impairment risk in December 29. There was a possibility that impairment would be applied to the building because of the sharp decrease in its assessed value, although an impairment loss cannot be deemed a loss for tax purposes. As a result, the company needed to avoid the risk of the payment of dividends becoming difficult, even if profits were secured from an accounting standpoint. Moreover, the strategy of replacing properties can be mentioned as a factor that relates to both acquisitions and sellouts. There have been some examples observed whereby local properties have been sold to local real estate agencies etc. and properties have been acquired in CBD Tokyo based on an investment policy of increasing the ratio of properties in the urban area. As can be seen from the above, the presence of J-REITs increased for both acquisitions and sellouts in the second half of fiscal 29. Some investment corporations have become more aggressive with the recovery in fund-raising capacity, so the trend of acquisitions is likely to continue for the time being, depending on the - 5

6 supply of properties. Because mergers and other activities have remained vigorous, property replacements appear to have advanced, including sellouts and acquisitions. (2) Real Estate Transactions by General Corporations in Urban Areas Entering the second half of fiscal 29, real estate transactions undertaken by general corporations (this term refers to companies other than those in the real estate and construction industries in this report) in urban areas have become evident (Diagram 7). Transactions undertaken by general corporations appear to have a variety of backgrounds, including cases where companies owning a building for lease sold it for the purpose of reducing interest-bearing debt, a selection and concentration of business focus, and so on (Cases 3 and 7), and cases where companies sold their head office in CBD Tokyo to move elsewhere to streamline their operation systems (Case 12). On the other hand, for companies that have posted solid earnings, now is a good time to invest in head office buildings, factories and other facilities. In fact, some cases have arisen where companies acquired properties for their own operations (Cases 2, 7 and 13). This can be considered to represent opportunities for general corporations to take action for real estate transactions, involving both sale and acquisition. In addition, in the urban and surrounding areas, condominium developers have been revived as buyers in real estate transactions for offices, former factory sites and former corporate housing sites. Cases 4 and 8 show acquisitions by condominium developers of vacant land owned by companies. In addition, the number of developers participating in bidding processes of real estate being disposed by general corporations is increasing. As condominium inventory reductions have been widely publicized, developers have become proactive in acquiring the sites for development. Cases where developers buy the former sites of offices and factories that are offered for sale due to consolidations or moves are likely to be seen going forward as well. Moreover, the trend of the convergence of accounting standards has become an additional factor to motivate companies to sell vacant lands and properties for lease, and this trend is expected to continue in fiscal 21. ( Diagram 7) Main Purchases and Sales by General Corporation in Tokyo/Osaka in the of FY 29 Disclosed Date Property Seller (Sector) Purchaser (Sector) Former Meguro Head Quarter and Factory Site Communications Equipment Manufacturer <unknown> Ebisu Head Quarter Wholesale (Furniture) Garment Ginza Operation Centre Office Building Taxi Operator Wholesale (Jewel and Royal Metals) Vacant land in Mitaka city (Tokyo) Precision Equipment Manufacturer Real Estate Otemachi Office Building Strata Ownership SPC Oil Yaesu Office Building Strata Ownership Oil SPC Higashi Gotanda Office Building Strata Ownership Metal ware Manufacturer Electric Equipment Manufacturer Joto-ward (Osaka) Former Operation and Car Parking Space Security Firm Real Estate Shiba Head Quarter Machinery Manufacturer Real Estate Kawaramachi (Osaka) Office Building Co-ownership Medical Products Manufacturer Real Estate Osaka Head Quarter Consulting Firms <unknown> Former Head Quarter in Meguro-ward Electric Equipment Manufacturer <unknown> Iriya Tokyo Branch Wholesale (Shoes) Restaurant High lighted in red indicates acquisition and disposition by general corporation (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information. - 6

7 (3) New Movements of Private Funds In a situation where cash flow conditions are not favorable, the trend of private funds in difficult financial positions attempting to sell their real estate has continued. Meanwhile, however, we have heard a spate of the establishment of successive new private funds in readiness for them to become the new parties to transactions in the future. Our attention has been caught by those where the role of asset manager is assumed by trust banks, major real estate companies and the like, targeting pension schemes and others that prefer stable, long-term investment (Diagram 8). Some of them have made their investments in a form of full equity that does not depend on borrowings. The flows of investment funds based in Asian countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong have also been reactivated (Diagram 9). Some cases of the establishment of new funds, investments, or the direct purchase of properties can be observed, which covers a wide range of properties from offices and residential to logistics properties. (Diagram 8) Movements of Establishing Private Funds in Japan Timing Name Inception 21.3 Nomura Real Estate Asset Management Core Investment / Private REIT 21.3 Mizuho Trust & Banking N'2 Real Estate Fund for Pension Funds 21.3 NTT Urban Development N'6 Real Estate Fund: Domestic Investors and NTT Urban Development 21.3 Diamond Realty Management Logistics Property Fund: Domestic Investors and Pension Funds (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information and Nikkei Real Estate Market Report and etc. (Diagram 9) Trends of inflows of Asian Funds Timing Name Inception (Singapore)Parkway Life Senior Housing 29.11~ (Singapore)Aman Resorts Group Hotel Portion for Otemachi 1-6 Project 21.1 (Singapore)Mapletree Establish Logistics Fund with Itochu Corporation 21.2 (Hong Kong)Keck Seng Residential Property in Chuo-ward, Tokyo 21.3 (Singapore)Mapletree Office Building in Monzen Nakacho in Tokyo (Source): Prepared by MUTB based on published information and Nikkei Real Estate Market Report and etc. 3. Signs of Unfreezing the Real Estate Market When looking over the entire real estate market in Japan, there does not appear to be any optimistic news about single elements such as prices and rents. It should be noted that the players that have returned to the market are limited to those companies and funds that have been able to recover their fund-raising capabilities after overcoming the adverse effects of the sluggish economic, and that the selection of properties to be acquired has been tightened. Nevertheless, as we have outlined above, it is the fact that the volume of real estate transactions has expanded over the last six months, led by J-REITs resuming operations. Liquidity appears to be steadily increasing in the long frozen real estate market. - 7

8 Important Disclosure This document is produced by Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation ( MUTB ). While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information herein, MUTB accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of information, nor the reasonableness of the conclusions based upon such information, which has been obtained from third parties. Past performance (including back test) is not necessarily a guide for future performance. Principal and income amount of the investment might fluctuate due to market and exchange rate movements. As a result, the investor may not receive the full amount originally invested. - 8