7th Annual Citi Brazil Equity Conference São Paulo. Financial information as of March 31, 2014

Transcription

1 7th Annual Citi Brazil Equity Conference São Paulo Financial information as of March 31, 2014

2 Leading position in Brazil Gencos Discos Market share in Generation¹ AES Uruguaiana (Rio Grande do Sul) 640 MW 16% 2% 16% State-owned AES Brasil Other private-owned AES Sul (Rio Grande do Sul) 1.3 clients (3.5 people) AES Tietê (Sao Paulo) MW AES Eletropaulo (Sao Paulo) 6.7 clients (20m people) 82% Market Share in Distribution² 13% 13% 87% Others AES Brasil 1 Based on ANNEL data (2014); 2 Distributed GWh () 2

3 Shareholding structure AES Corp C 50.00% + 1 share P 0.00% T 46.15% Cia. Brasiliana de Energia BNDES C 50.00% - 1 share P 100% T 53.85% C = Common Shares P = Preferred Shares T = Total T 99.70% C 99.99% T 99.99% C 99.99% T 99.99% C 71.35% P 32.34% T 52.55% C 77.81% P 0.00% T 30.97% AES Sul AES Serviços AES Uruguaiana AES Tietê AES Eletropaulo ¹ ¹ Free Float Others ² Market Cap ³ 16.1% 19.2% 56.3% 8.5% US$ 0.7bi 24.2% 28.3% 39.5% 8.0% US$ 2.7 bi 1 - Parent companies, AES Corp and BNDES, have similar voting capital on each of the companies: approx 35.9% on AES Eletropaulo and 32.9% on AES Tiete 2 - Includes Federal Government and Eletrobrás shares in AES Eletropaulo and AES Tietê, respectively 3 - Base:05/30/2014. Consider preferred shares for AES Eletropaulo and preferred and common shares for AES Tietê 3

4 3rd largest among private generation companies 12 hydroelectric plants in São Paulo 30-year concession expiring in 2029 Installed capacity of 2,658 MW, with physical guarantee 1 of 1,278 MWavg Physical guarantee contracted with AES Eletropaulo through Dec, 2015 Listed at BM&F Bovespa (GETI3 and GETI4) Dividend Yield: AES Tietê overview : 12.6% PN and 12.4% ON Last 3 years avg: 11.1% PN and 11.3% ON Investment grade: Moody's; National: Aa1 and International: Baa3 1 - Amount of energy allowed to be long-term contracted 4

5 Operational excellence Best practices in asset management (PASS 55 certified) - AES Tietê was the first Latin American company to receive the certification from the British Standards Institute High operational availability Generated energy (MW avg 1 ) Unscheduled outage (%) 124% 127% % 109% 102% 92% , ,629 1,392 1,480 1, Generation/Physical guarantee Generation - MWavg Unscheduled Outage Rate EFOF² 1 Generated energy divided by the amount of hours; 2 Forced outage equivalent factor 5

6 Brazil reservoirs levels and spot prices evolution Average thermal dispatch of 15GW in the vs. 13GW in the Brazil Reservoirs Levels (%) Monthly Evolution of the Spot Price 1 (R$/MWh) - SE/CW jan feb mar apr may jun jul n Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez aug sep oct nov dec Historical data since jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug 2014 sep oct PLD Max nov dec 1 - Since September,, spot price has been calculated with the mechanism aversion to risk; spot price of May, 2014 refers to the average spot price valid for the one-week period starting on May 30,

7 Commercial performance 57% of net revenues and 65% of billed energy in the related to the bilateral agreement with AES Eletropaulo Billed energy (GWh) Clients per net revenue in (%) +2% 15,123 1,519 1, ,728 1,141 3, ,797 1, ,212 7% 11,108 11,138 11, , % 57% 3,058 2,329 0% 2011 AES Eletropaulo ERM¹ Spot Other PPAs AES Eletropaulo ERM¹ Spot Other PPAs 1 Energy Reallocation Mechanism 7

8 Evolution of commercial strategy +128MWavg for 2016, +148MWavg for 2017 and +150MWavg for 2018 at an average price of R$128MWh 1 Expected selling average price of available energy of R$ /MWh for 2016 and R$ /MWh from 2017 on Historical Evolution of Client Base² (MWavg) Average Price (R$/MWh) ,268 1,268 1,268 1, ,084 1,184 Energy available for sale³ Own energy already sold AES Eletropaulo PPA Includes PPAs celebrated in the period from Feb 26th to May 7th; 2 Only conventional energy; 3 Excludes losses and internal consumption; 4 Average price (based on Mar/14) 8

9 Financial highlights Net revenue (R$ million) Ebitda (R$ million) 1, % 2,112 2,337 1,466 +2% 1,542 1, % % % 73% 65% 56% 78% Ebitda Margin 9

10 Financial highlights Net Income (R$ million) +2% Highlights 25% of minimum pay-out according to bylaws Distribution practice: quarterly basis +93% 358 Average payout from 2008 to : 107% Average dividends since 2008: R$ 864 million per year 186 dividends approved: R$ 254 million

11 Investments plan Investment background and guidance for (R$ million) Investments estimated for the period of related to the power plants modernization process, aiming for continuous improvement in operational conditions and ensuring availability in its generation plants Major initiatives for power plants modernization process focused in 2014 and

12 Growth projects Thermal São Paulo Project (503 MW) Natural gas combined cycle thermal plant Previous license granted in Oct, 2011 valid for 5 years Pending gas supply Next steps: obtain installation license Thermal Araraquara Project (579 MW) Natural gas combined cycle thermal plant Purchase option acquired in March, Pending gas supply Next steps: obtain installation license 12

13 Debt profile Net debt (R$ billion) Debt amortization schedule Net Debt/Adjusted Ebitda² Net Debt Covenants Net debt/adjusted Ebitda 2 3.5x Adjusted Ebitda 2 /Financial Expenses 1.75x Debt Cost Average cost (% CDI) 1 113% 104% Average term (years) Effective rate 9.8% 10.9% 1 Brazilian Interbank Interest Rate 2 Adjusted Ebitda (i) by the financial expenses/revenues and (ii) by the depreciation and amortization values to improve the reflection of the Company s operational cash generation 13

14 Capital markets AES Tietê x IEE x Ibovespa¹ - 12 months Daily average volume (R$ thousand) May-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 fev-13 abr-13 mai-13 jun-13 ago-13 set-13 out-13 dez-13 jan-14 fev-14 IEE Ibovespa GETI4 TSR GETI3 IEE Ibovespa GETI4 TSR² GETI3-19,4% -16,1% -6,2% 1212,6% -9,4% -15,5% -15,0% -26,6% -17,8% -30,7% , ,524 12,584 13,598 10,538 4,137 9,315 5,269 16,400 9,461 3,269 5, YTD May/14 Shares negotiated (thousand) Preferred Common Market Cap³: US$ 2.7 billion / R$ 6.0 billion BM&FBovespa: GETI3 (common shares) and GETI4 (preferred shares) ADRs negotiated in US OTC Market: AESAY (common shares) and AESYY (preferred shares) 1 Base 100: from 05/30/ to 05/30/2014; 2 Total Shareholders Return; 3 Index: 05/30/

15 AES Eletropaulo overview Concession area Largest distribution company in Brazil¹ Serving 24 municipalities in São Paulo metropolitan area Concession contract expires in 2028 Concession area responsible for ~17% of Brazil s GDP² 46k km of lines, 6.7 million consumption units and ~20 million clients served in a concession area of 4,526 km 2 ~46 TWh distributed in 6,266 employees as of March, 2014 Listed at BM&FBovespa (ELPL3 and ELPL4) Investment grade: Fitch S&P Moody s National AA AA- Aa2 International BB+ BB Ba1 1 ABRADEE ranking; 2 Source: IBGE,

16 Consumption evolution Total market 1 (GWh) Consumption by class 1 (%) 45,101 45,557 46,215 8,284 7,987 8, ,817 37,570 37, % 11,385 11,779 2,092 2,162 9,293 9, Brazil AES Eletropaulo Free Clients Captive Market Residential Commercial Industrial Others State of São Paulo GDP growth 2.5% (5-year average) GDP growth expectation in the state of São Paulo: 2.1% in 2014, 2.4% in 2015 and 2.3% in Net of own consumption 16

17 jul/07 nov/07 mar/08 jul/07 nov/07 mar/08 jul/08 nov/08 mar/09 jul/08 nov/08 mar/09 jul/09 nov/09 mar/10 jul/09 nov/09 mar/10 jul/10 nov/10 mar/11 jul/10 nov/10 mar/11 jul/11 nov/11 mar/12 jul/11 nov/11 mar/12 jul/12 nov/12 mar/13 jul/12 nov/12 mar/13 jul/13 nov/13 mar/14 jul/13 nov/13 mar/14 Avg Real Income R$ - SP (Q -2*) Avg Real Income R$ - SP (Q -2*) Residential - GWh Residential - GWh Consumption evolution Industrial class X Industrial production in SP¹ Residential class X Average income in SP² Residential Consumption x Real Income - São Paulo (Q -2*) 2,400 15% ,200 10% 10% 2, % 5% 1,800 0% % 1,600-5% % 1,400-10% % 1,200 Economic crisis Economic recovery Economic crisis -15% Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN -15% ,800 2, , , , , , , , , , Residential - GWh Residential Consumption x Real Income - São Paulo (Q -2*) 2,300 1, Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN , , , , , , Residential - GWh Produção Industrial Real SP (% income 12 meses) (São Paulo) Industrial (% 12 meses) Industrial Production Residential in SP Consumption (% 12 months) Industrial Consunmption AES Eletropaulo (% 12 months) Real income (São Paulo) Residential Consumption Consumption focused on more resilient segments (residential and commercial) Consumption per residential client: average growth of 1.2% in the last 7 years (2007-) Industrial consumption impacted by lower industrial production in Brazil 1 São Paulo metropolitan area. Information until January, Information until March,

18 Operational performance Best SAIFI among large distributors¹ in. Reduction in SAIFI of 5.0% in the Third-best SAIDI in ; ratio reached 8.42 hours in the SAIDI (hours) SAIFI (times) Aneel Reference SAIDI (hours) Aneel Reference SAIFI (times) 1 Ranking ABRADEE Distributors with more than 500k clients 18

19 Operational performance Total losses of 10% in the, a reduction of 1% versus the Non-technical losses fell by 2.5% compared to the Total losses (% - last 12 months) Technical losses¹ Non technical losses Aneel reference² Values estimated by the Company to make them comparable to the ANEEL reference for non-technical losses of the low voltage market. 2 ANEEL benchmark: standardized values for the calendar year 19

20 Financial highlights Gross revenue (R$ million) Operating costs and expenses¹ (R$ million) 15, ,405 15, ,355 12, ,599 6,821 1,132 8,281 1,423 7,117 1,303 9,097 9,128 8,203 3, , % 3, , ,689 6,858 5, % 1,929 2, ,547 1, Construction revenues Deduction to Gross Revenue Net revenue ex-construction revenue Opex Energy Supply and Transmission Charges 1 Do not include depreciation, Pension Plan expenses and CDE/ACR Account funding 20

21 Manageable costs Reduction of 13% in reported PMSO Manageable PMSO increased 4.8% versus 7.3% of IGP-M (inflation index) in the period PMSO 1 formation (R$ million) -13% % Pension Fund Contingencies, ADA and Manegeable Write-offs IGP-M Personnel Material, services and others Contingencies, Manageable ADA and Write-offs Pension Fund 1 PMSO: Personnel, Material, Services and Other Expenses 21

22 Financial highlights Adjusted Ebitda¹ (R$ million) Adjusted net income (loss)² (R$ million) 2,581 1,331 1, , (166) 1, (1) (184) x Reported Ebitda x Reported net income (loss) 1 - EBITDA adjusted by expenses related to Pension Plan and to regulatory assets and liabilities. 2 Net income (loss) adjusted by regulatory assets and liabilities 22

23 Adjusted Ebitda Growth in Adjusted Ebitda in driven by market, tariff adjustment and costs reduction Ebitda formation (R$ million) 57% Regulatory Assets and Liabilities Pension Fund Adjusted Market and tariff Opex Adjusted Pension Fund Regulatory liability amortization Parcel A 23

24 Adjusted net income Reversing of the adjusted net loss registered in the Reported net income impacted by R$ 120 million of regulatory liability amortization and R$ 153 million of Parcel A Net income formation (R$ million) Regulatory assets and liabilities Adjusted Market and tariff PMSO Others¹ Adjusted Regulatory liability amortization Parcel A 1 - Includes depreciation, financial result and IR / Social Contribution (effective rate of 34%). 24

25 Investments plan R$ 3.2 billion in the period of Investments (R$ million) Investments breakdown (R$ million) R$ 136 million (e) % System Expansion Operational Reliability Client Services IT Losses Recover Others Funded by clients Own resources 25

26 Debt profile Net debt /Ebitda adjusted ratio at 2.6 times Positive amortization schedule, with few short-term maturities Net debt¹ Amortization schedule (R$ million) National currency Pension Plan 2, ,795 2Q13 3Q13 4Q Net debt(r$ billion) Net debt / Adjusted Ebitda² Cost of Debt Average Term (years) Effective Rate 11.6% 11.8% 1- Net debt in accordance to debt agreements. 2 EBITDA adjusted by expenses related to Pension Plan and to regulatory assets and liabilities 26

27 Capital markets AES Eletropaulo x IEE x Ibovespa¹ - 12 months meses 1 Daily average volume (R$ thousand) 2,092 26,897 26, ,0% -6,2% -9,4% -8,8% -15,5% -44,3% 816 1,114 19,313 1, dez-12 mar-13 jun-13 set-13 dez-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May YTD May Ibovespa IEE² IEE AES Eletropaulo ELPL4 PN AES Eletropaulo TSR³ Shares negotiated (thousand) Preferred Market cap³: US$ 0.7 billion/r$ 1.5 billion BM&FBOVESPA: ELPL3 (common shares) and ELPL4 (preferred shares) ADRs at US OTC Market: EPUMY (preferred shares) 1 Base 100: from 05/30/ to 05/30/2014; 2 Electric Power Index; 3 Index: 05/30/

28 Overview AES Sul Serving 118 municipalities in the State of Rio Grande do Sul and ~3,5 million population attended 1,487 directed employees, as of March, 2014 Business drivers Regional GDP growth 3.1% (5-year average) Fast Facts Consumption units 1.3 Million GWh Sold 8,974 Concession area 99,512 km² Concession expiration 2027 GDP growth expectation: 1.3% in 2014, 2.2% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016 Tariff reset concluded in April/13 in line with expectations. Tariff adjustment approved by ANEEL in April/14 at 16.4% with net effect to clients of 29.5% Consolidation of efficiency programs, leading to operating costs below regulatory levels (~2%) Operational indicators (SAIDI and SAIFI) within regulatory targets and ~32% better than 2009 Financials: Ebitda of R$ (13) million and net loss of R$ 43 million, due to high energy costs (pass-through) 28

29 AES Uruguaiana Overview Natural gas-fired thermal power generation company with commercial operations started in 2000 Located in the State of Rio Grande do Sul city of Uruguaiana Suspended operations in 2008 due to lack of gas supply, and initiated arbitration against YPF in Argentina ICC (International Chamber of Commerce) awarded the merits in favor of AES Uruguaiana in May Next and final phase refers to the damages calculation Fast Facts Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) Capacity (MW) 640 MW Authorization expiration 2027 Business Drivers Currently in emergency operation for a 60-day period to support reservoirs recovery Working to return the plant to long-term service 29

30 Energy sector in Brazil: businesses segments Distribution Transmission Generation 63 distribution companies 463 TWh of energy distributed in 190 million consumers Annual tariff adjustment Tariff reset every four or five years Regulated contracting environment 77 companies High voltage transmission (>230 kv) 104,158 km in extension lines (National Integrated System) Regulated tariff (annually adjusted by inflation) 3,159 power plants 127 GW of installed capacity System based on hydro plants (68%) Contracting environment: free and regulated markets Sources: EPE, ANEEL, ONS, ABRADEE and Instituto Acende Brasil 30

31 AES Tietê contracting opportunities post 2015 Regulated Market Free Market Merchant Existing Energy Auctions (A-1) Bilateral contracts (PPAs¹) Non contracted energy Via auctions organized by federal government Bilateral contracts Exposed to Spot Market price Distribution Companies Free Consumers² 1 Power Purchase Agreement; 2 Conventional consumer (demand above 3MW and connected to a line of 69kV) and Incentivized/ Special consumer (demand above 0.5MW) 31

32 Hydrological risk sharing mechanism 1) Equilibrium (GE 1 = PG 2 ) 2A) Deficit (GE 1 < PG 2 ) 2B) Deficit (GE 1 < PG 2 ) Buy at ERM 3 Buy at ERM 3 Buy at Spot Sell at ERM 3 Buy at Spot PG PG PG Generated Energy ERM Physical Guarantee Generated Energy ERM Physical Guarantee Generated Energy ERM Physical Guarantee Genco A Genco A Genco B 1 GE: Generated Energy; 2 PG: Physical Guarantee; 3 Enough to cover variable O&M costs 32

33 Tariff methodology for distributors Tariff Reset is applied each 4-5 years AES Eletropaulo next tariff reset: Jul/2015; AES Sul next tariff reset: Apr/2018 Parcel A: costs are largely passed through to the tariff Parcel B: costs are set by ANEEL Annual tariff adjustment Parcel A : costs are largely passed through to the tariff Parcel B: cost are adjusted by IGPM +/- X(1) Factor Energy Purchase Transmission Sector Charges Regulatory Opex (PMSO) Parcel A Costs Non-manageable costs that are largely passed through to the tariff Incentives to reduce costs Regulatory Opex Remuneration asset base X WACC X Depreciation Investment Remuneration Depreciation Efficient operating cost determined by ANEEL Remuneration Asset Base Prudent investments used to calculate the investment remuneration (applying WACC) and depreciation 1 X Factor: index that capture productivity gains Regulatory Ebitda Parcel A - Non-Manageable costs Parcel B - Manageable costs 33

34 X Factor methodology X Factor = Pd + Q + T Definition Distribution productivity Quality of service Operational expenses trajectory Objective Capture productivity gains Stimulate improvement of service quality Implement operational expenses trajectory Application Defined at tariff reset, considers the average productivity of the sector adjusted by market growth and consumption variation Defined at each tariff readjustment, considers variation of SAIDI and SAIFI and comparative performance of discos Defined at tariff reset, considers reference company and benchmarking methodologies 34