Argentina Corn Production

Transcription

1 February 27, 2014 Informa Economics South American Crop Reporting Service Argentina February Production Update and Weekly Crop Condition Report Informa Economics conducted its February yield survey for corn and soybeans between February 24 and February 26. Based on the findings of this survey, combined with Informa s other analytical tools, Argentina s 2013/14 corn production is forecast at 22.6 million tonnes and soybeans at 54.0 million tonnes. USDA s World Agricultural Outlook Board will issue its next report on March 10. Argentina s Ministry of Agriculture is expected to issue its next monthly report on March 20. Corn Production Unchanged at 22.6 Million Tonnes Argentina s 2013/14 corn harvest is forecast at 22.6 million tonnes, which is unchanged from Informa s previous forecast but, if realized, would be 3.9 million lower than last year. Argentina s corn yield is forecast to average 6.65 tonnes per hectare, which would be 24 percent above last season. Informa s corn forecast is also 1.4 million lower than USDA s February forecast. The Ministry of Agriculture has not issued a production forecast for the 2013/14 harvest. 000 Tonnes 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Argentina Corn Production 775 Ridge Lake Boulevard, Suite 400 ~ Memphis, Tennessee ~ Telephone ~ Fax

2 February 27, 2014 Page 2 Corn planting was last reported at 98 percent complete on February 6; which, although this was equal to average, the bulk of the 2013/14 crop was planted about four weeks later than normal. About 80 percent of the corn has reached the silking stage with just over 50 percent in the filling stage. Almost 10 percent of Argentina s corn is mature and ready for harvest. Although corn harvest has not yet been reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, it is likely underway with less than 5 percent collected. Given this year s delayed planting, corn harvest is expected to run about three to four weeks behind average. Corn Rating Declines Slightly Argentina s corn condition declined since last week with 73 percent rated in good to excellent condition versus last week s 74 percent. Slight reductions in Cordoba and Santa Fe were tempered by a slight improvement in Buenos Aires. Argentina Corn Condition (in percent) Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Current Condition Index Previous Report Index Buenos Aires Cordoba Entre Rios Santa Fe Reporting Provinces Previous Year Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Entre Rios, and Santa Fe account for over 80 percent of Argentina's corn production. 100 Argentina Corn Condition Condition Index / Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec 2-Jan 9-Jan 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb 6-Mar 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 3-Apr 2013 / 2014

3 February 27, 2014 Page 3 Soybean Production Reduced 3 Million Tonnes Argentina s 2013/14 soybean production is forecast at 54.0 million tonnes, which is down 3 million from Informa s previous forecast due to a combination of fewer hectares planted and reduced yield potential. Soybean area was estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture last week at 20.3 million hectares, which was 350 thousand below Informa s previous estimate. Informa further reduced its abandoned area estimate 250 thousand hectares due to reports that soybeans in low areas were damaged by above-normal rains. Soybean yields are forecast to average 2.76 tonnes per hectare, down 2 percent from last month. Informa s soybean production forecast is equal to USDA s early February forecast. Argentina s Ministry of Agriculture has not issued a forecast for the 2013/14 soybean harvest. Soybean plantings were completed in early February. Eighty percent of the soybean crop was in the blooming stage or beyond and 50 percent was in the pod-filling stage by February 20. Argentina s soybean harvest normally begins in mid-march with 10 to 15 percent collected by April 1. 55,000 Argentina Soybean Production 50, Tonnes 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Soybeans Rating Declines Argentina s soybean rating declined for the third consecutive week with 82 percent rated in good to excellent condition versus last week s 85 percent. Ratings declined in Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, and Cordoba with Entre Rios showing a slight improvement. Although the condition rating has been declining, it is rated above last season when 33 percent of the crop was in fair condition and 9 percent was categorized as poor to very poor.

4 February 27, 2014 Page 4 Argentina Soybean Condition (in percent) Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Current Condition Index Previous Report Index Buenos Aires Cordoba Entre Rios Santa Fe Reporting Provinces Previous Year Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Entre Rios and Santa Fe account for 85 percent of Argentina's soybean production. Condition Index Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec Argentina Soybean Condition 2-Jan 9-Jan 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb 6-Mar 13-Mar 2012 / / Mar 27-Mar 3-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr WTM:blg This copyrighted material is intended for the use of clients of Informa Economics, Inc., only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Informa Economics, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable and the views expressed within this document reflect judgments at this time and are subject to change without notice. Informa Economics, Inc. does not guarantee that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

5 February 27, 2014 Page 5 Argentina: Harvested Area (thousand hectares) 2004/ / / / / / / / / /14 Corn 2,783 2,440 2,800 3,412 2,353 2,904 3,748 3,695 4,960 3,400 Sorghum ,000 1,000 1,150 1,000 Barley ,160 1,500 1,270 All Wheat 6,430 5,470 6,210 5,778 4,266 3,273 4,532 4,494 3,300 3,250 Rice Soybean 14,400 15,200 16,300 16,371 16,767 18,130 18,745 17,577 19,418 19,600 Sunseed 1,923 2,167 2,351 2,569 1,820 1,495 1,743 1,823 1,623 1,325 Cotton Argentina: Yields (tons/hectare), except cotton kilos lint/hectare 2004/ / / / / / / / / /14 Corn Sorghum Barley All Wheat Rice Soybean Sunseed Cotton Argentina: Production (thousand metric tons), except cotton in 480 pound bales 2004/ / / / / / / / / /14 Corn 20,483 14,446 21,755 22,017 15,500 25,000 25,201 21,197 26,500 22,600 Sorghum 2,894 2,328 2,795 2,937 1,660 3,629 4,400 4,200 5,000 4,400 Barley ,330 1,600 2,110 1,356 2,950 4,500 5,000 4,750 Wheat 16,900 13,800 16,300 18,600 11,000 12,000 17,200 15,500 8,500 10,000 Rice (Milled) ,118 1,008 1, Soybean 39,000 40,500 48,800 46,200 30,993 54,500 48,876 40,100 49,303 54,000 Sunseed 3,662 3,780 3,498 4,650 3,200 2,450 3,670 3,700 2,800 2,700 Cotton ,000 1,350 1, ,025 Informa Forecasts and Estimates in Bold Feb 27, 2014

6 February 27, 2014 Page 6 Corn - Area, Yield and Production by Provinces, Argentina 2007/ / / / / / /14 Area Planted (000 HA) Buenos Aires 1,147 1,041 1,133 1,428 1,589 1,604 1,200 Catamarca Chaco Cordoba 1,440 1, ,143 1,272 1,802 1,250 Corrientes Entre Rios Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones Salta San Luis Santa Fe Santiago Del Estero Tucuman TOTAL 4,239 3,498 3,671 4,561 5,001 6,114 4,350 Area Harvested (000 HA) Buenos Aires ,206 1,204 1, Catamarca Chaco Cordoba 1, Corrientes Entre Rios Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones Salta San Luis Santa Fe Santiago Del Estero Tucuman TOTAL 3,412 2,353 2,904 3,748 3,695 4,960 3,400 Yield (Tonnes/HA) Buenos Aires Catamarca Chaco Cordoba Corrientes Entre Rios Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones Salta San Luis Santa Fe Santiago Del Estero Tucuman TOTAL Production (000 MT) Buenos Aires 7,077 4,275 8,950 9,015 7,630 8,000 5,500 Catamarca Chaco Cordoba 8,749 7,530 7,450 6,275 4,795 7,650 7,875 Corrientes Entre Rios 1, , ,169 1,400 1,000 Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones Salta San Luis , Santa Fe 2,539 1,900 4,420 3,870 3,831 4,200 3,800 Santiago Del Estero ,850 1,561 1,900 1,800 Tucuman TOTAL 22,017 15,500 25,000 25,201 21,197 26,500 22,600 Informa projections are bold. Feb 27, 2014

7 February 27, 2014 Page 7 Soybeans - Area, Yield and Production by Provinces, Argentina 2007/ / / / / / /14 Area Planted (000 HA) Buenos Aires 4,217 5,444 5,676 5,935 5,969 6,734 6,750 Catamarca Chaco Cordoba 4,699 5,197 5,129 5,054 5,014 5,349 5,250 Corrientes Entre Rios ,419 1,470 Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones Salta San Luis Santa Fe 3,492 3,441 3,079 3,108 3,108 3,174 3,160 Santiago Del Estero ,148 1,300 Tucuman TOTAL 16,604 18,033 18,343 18,883 18,671 20,036 20,300 Area Harvested (000 HA) Buenos Aires 4,148 5,109 5,610 5,843 5,795 6,625 6,535 Catamarca Chaco Cordoba 4,661 5,128 5,034 5,040 4,858 5,256 5,100 Corrientes Entre Rios 1, ,462 1,465 1,325 1,418 1,400 Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones 1 1 Salta San Luis Santa Fe 3,427 3,355 3,075 3,095 3,008 3,168 3,050 Santiago Del Estero ,133 1,275 Tucuman TOTAL 16,387 16,767 18,130 18,745 17,577 19,418 19,600 Yield (Tonnes/HA) Buenos Aires Catamarca Chaco Cordoba Corrientes Entre Rios Formosa Jujuy La Pampa Misiones Salta San Luis Santa Fe Santiago Del Estero Tucuman TOTAL Production (000 MT) Buenos Aires 12,246 6,743 17,700 15,465 15,396 17,813 17,500 Catamarca Chaco 1, ,600 1, ,300 Cordoba 12,750 11,172 13,400 12,252 9,784 13,081 13,250 Corrientes Entre Rios 3,289 1,144 4,180 3,597 3,100 3,529 3,600 Formosa Jujuy La Pampa , ,125 Misiones Salta 1,450 1,311 1,700 1, ,350 San Luis Santa Fe 11,480 8,083 10,800 9,741 8,177 10,509 11,600 Santiago Del Estero 1, ,075 2, ,768 2,800 Tucuman TOTAL 46,238 30,993 54,500 48,876 40,100 49,303 54,000 Informa projections are bold. Feb 27, 2014

8 February 27, 2014 Page 8 Argentina: Row Crop Harvest Progress, Percent Area Harvested Crop/ Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Crop Year Corn 2008/ / / / / /14 5-Year Avg Sunflowers 2008/ / / / / / Year Avg Soybeans 2008/ / / / / /14 5-Year Avg Source: Ministry of Agriculture Feb 27, Argentina Corn Harvest Progress 5-Year Average with Comparisons Percent Complete Feb 20 Feb 27 Mar 06 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Apr 03 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 May 01 May 08 May 15 May 22 May 29 Jun 05 Jun 12 Jun Yr Range 5-Year Average 2010/ / / /14

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