298,700 sq m THE LETTING MARKET - Q PARIS CBD. Take up. Size of transactions Q3 2015
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- Luke Harrison
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From this document you will learn the answers to the following questions:
What is the CBD heading for a shortage of supply?
What is the vacancy rate of the CBD?
What was the state of repair in Paris in 2015?
Transcription
1 THE LETTING MARKET - Q PARIS CBD Take up 298,700 sq m Take up in sq m 395, , ,100 85, ,600 90,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 298, ,800 94, ,500 91, ,500 75,000 85, , ,800 95,800 79,500 79,400 94,500 94,600 99,400 70,800 62, %: transactional activity has proved dynamic in the CBD since the start of Its results continue to increase compared with 2014, which was in turn a good year, against a bleak regional backdrop (-1%) Results are encouraging across all segments of surface areas, including for large transactions (greater than 5,000 sq m), with four large transactions recorded since the start of the year in the CBD, although this is not normally a core segment of the market However, the small surface areas (less than 1,000 sq m) and mediumsized surface areas (1,000 sq m to 5,000 sq m) segments proved most dynamic, with respective increases in transactional activity of +30% and +16% The CBD accounted for 20% of regional transactional activity in the third quarter of 2015, much higher than the average of 16% observed since 2009 Size of transactions 22% 23% 15% 20% 12% 5% 6% 6% 15% 17% 10% 14% 14% 19% 24% 21% 20% 22% 38% 43% 43% 45% 45% 34% 33% 39% 37% 40% 25% 20% 25% 23% 26% 40% 41% 42% 35% 41% Q Q Small areas ( 1,000 sq m) Medium areas (from 1,000 to 5,000 sq m) Large areas (from 5,000 to 20,000 sq m) Very large areas ( 20,000 sq m)
2 Examples of transactions Transactions 1,000 sq m Tenant Address Date Area Rent Quality Confidential 7 rue Copernic, Paris 8 th Sept sq m Owner occupier sale State of repair Rouvier et Associés 9/13 avenue Myron Herrick, Paris 8 th Sept sq m 450 New Etude Notariale Poisson et Gaillard Formatlangues - Services et Séjours 85 bld Haussmann - Paris 8 th Sept sq m 610 New 10 rue du Colisée - Paris 8 th Aug sq m NA State of repair IMG Models 20 rue de la Baume - Paris 8 th July sq m 730 New Lancaster 14 rue Auber - Paris 9 th April sq m 550 State of repair China Construction Bank Europe SA 86 bld Haussmann - Paris 8 th April sq m NA Renovated Confidential 37 rue de la Victoire, Paris 9 th March sq m 460 State of repair Ecovadis 43/47 ave. de la Gde Armée - Paris 16 th March sq m NA State of repair Tag Commander 3/5 rue Saint-Georges - Paris 9 th March sq m 420 Renovated Avenir Finance 12/14 rue de Médéric - Paris 17 th Feb sq m 475 New Insurance company 38 avenue de l Opéra - Paris 2 nd Jan sq m NA Renovated Transactions from 1,000 to 5,000 sq m Tenant Address Date Area Rent Quality Confidential 81/83 rue de Richelieu, Paris 2 nd Sept ,600 sq m 780 New Groupe SMCP 150 bld Haussmann, Paris 8 th Sept ,600 sq m 630 New Hays France 145/149 bld Haussmann, Paris 8 th Aug ,840 sq m NA New Ralph Lauren France 19/23bis rue de Vienne, Paris 8 th Aug ,550 sq m 600 State of repair Eurazeo 1 rue Georges Berger, Paris 17 th July ,130 sq m 730 New Marionnaud Parfumeries 111/119 rue Réaumur, Paris 2 nd July ,000 sq m 565 Renovated French group 15 avenue d Iéna - Paris 16 th June ,500 sq m NA Renovated Sungard Financial Systems 46/50 rue ND des Victoires - Paris 2 nd May ,900 sq m NA Renovated Lafourchette.com 70 rue Saint-Lazare, Paris 9 th May ,290 sq m 450 State of repair Korian 21/25 rue Balzac - Paris 8 th March ,000 sq m 650 Renovated Banque de France 111/119 rue Réaumur - Paris 2 nd Jan ,555 sq m 565 Renovated 2
3 Transactions 5, 000 sq m Tenant Address Date Area Rent Quality Sisley 3/5 avenue de Friedland, Paris 8 th Sept ,000 sq m BPI - Banque Publique d Investissement Owner occupier sale 24/30 rue Drouot, Paris 9 th Aug ,330 sq m NA New Exane # Cloud - Paris 2 nd March ,300 sq m 700 to 760 New New Cartier 33 rue La Fayette - Paris 9 th Jan ,000 sq m 680 State of repair Large occupiers (> 5,000 sq m) 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 11% 7% 7% 11% 10% 18% 21% 12% 17% 6% 25% 15% 27% 17% 10% 32% 31% 26% 26% 12% 12% 35% 32% 46% 8% 34% 18% 9% 3% 12% 26% 15% 9% 11% 37% 24% 52% 40% 59% 45% 19% 25% 7% 22% 11% 21% Banks/Finance & Insurance Legal activities, Audit & Advices Public/Para-public/ Professional and international organisations Industry TMT Luxury & Fashion Others 3
4 Available supply 4.9% Vacancy rate (Sources: Knight Frank, ORIE) Vacancy rate in % 14.0% 12.0% 12.4% The CBD continues to record a very low vacancy rate, significantly below the regional average (7.3%) Vacancy has also fallen in the past six months, to the extent that the CBD is heading for a shortage of supply This is a sign of the CBD s appeal to companies, with no increase in vacant surface areas recorded as a result of the economic crisis 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Western Crescent 7.3% 4.9% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q However, the current situation poses a threat to future transactional activity, with supply tending to create demand in a market such as the CBD, as demonstrated by the absorption capacity of the numerous real-estate projects delivered in Conversely, a lack of supply is likely to drive users away from this market Grade A supply 14% Second hand New or redeveloped Grade A supply (new or restructured) has fallen significantly in the last three months, following leases and sales to users of several new and restructured projects, such as 3/5 Friedland (bought by Sisley) as well as 24/30 Rue Drouot (leased by Bpifrance). Grade A supply therefore represents 14% of available supply recorded in the CBD, compared with 19% at the end of June 2015 The CBD, even more than the rest of the Paris region, is clearly facing a shortage of Grade A supply. These types of properties are very popular with users, since they allow streamlining of real-estate costs and work organisation. In 2014, 81% of surface areas involved in large transactions were Grade A The lack of high quality supply therefore presents a potential hurdle to transactional activity in the CBD Share of new or redeveloped areas in the available supply 14% 18% 4
5 Rents 750 /sq m/year excl. taxes and charges Prime rent Rents in /sq m/year excl. taxes and charges Prime rent Average rent Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q High-end rent has remained at 750 since the end of 2013 This value, established following the lease by Hermès in Rue d Anjou, has since been confirmed, for example by the new Clifford Chance head office in 2014 and the Exane transaction for #Cloud in 2015 (the latter achieving values of 760 for some superior office spaces) This price stability, despite the strong performance of transactional activity, is one of the keys of the fine performance recorded by the CBD in the rental market in 2014 and 2015 There are early signs of an upward trend, however, with the signing of some transactions at record levels of around 800 The Exane transaction for #Cloud marked another significant milestone, as high-end values previously reserved for the West of the CBD (the Golden Triangle), now appearing in the Financial City, to the east of Opéra Size/rents ratio Rented area 13,000 sq m 12,000 sq m 11,000 sq m 10,000 sq m 9,000 sq m 8,000 sq m 7,000 sq m 6,000 sq m 526 Average rent for Q > 5,000 sq m from 1,000 to 5,000 sq m < 1,000 sq m Average rents per area* 5,000 sq m 4,000 sq m 3,000 sq m 2,000 sq m 1,000 sq m Rent ( /sq m/year excl. taxes & charges) * Not enough references to propose an average rent for the >5,000 sq m office sector 5
6 Future deliveries 7% of new deliveries before Q are pre-let New or redeveloped areas in 140,000 sq m 120,000 sq m 100,000 sq m 80,000 sq m 60,000 sq m 40,000 sq m 20,000 sq m 36,800 56,700 Average consumption of new or redeveloped office space (2009/2014): 59,000 sq m 37,900 58,100 85,800 68,100 68,100 57,700 49,300 41, , ,900 8,400 6, The under-production of new or restructured supply seen since 2010 led to a decline in the average annual take-up of Grade A surface areas in the CBD to 59,000 sq m compared with 75,000 sq m two years ago The dominant model in the CBD remains marketing after delivery of the building. Out of the 68,100 sq m delivered in 2015, only 18,500 sq m (27%) are still available Marketing prior to completion remains the exception, amounting to 7% of projected volumes between now and the end of 2018 The dip in the volume of surface areas delivered looks set to be confirmed in 2016 and 2017, accentuating the current shortfall in Grade A supply and pushing up rents for these types of properties Delivered Pre-let Available Summary (Sources: Knight Frank, ORIE) Q Q Annual change Q share in Stock 6,652,381 sq m 6,781,473 sq m -1.9% 53,579,120 sq m 12.4% Take up 298,700 sq m 287,646 sq m +3.9% 1,521,800 sq m 20.0% Immediate supply 326,000 sq m 347,000 sq m -6.1% 3,933,000 sq m 8.2% Vacancy rate 4.9% 5.1% - 7.3% - Average rent 536/sq m/year 506/sq m/year +5.9% 324/sq m/year - Prime rent 750/sq m/year 750/sq m/year - 750/sq m/year - 6
7 Av r 8ème ème RESEARCH PARIS CBD Q Map 17 ème 9 ème 16 ème 8 ème 2 ème 1 er Avenue venue Niel enue des Ternes d de Courcelles agram Avenue Victor Hugo Avenue de la Grande Armée Avenue des Champs-Elysées enue Foch Avenue Victor Hugo Avenue venue Ca Carnot not Avenue enue Kieber Kieber venue Mac-Mahon Avenue Mac-Mahon Mac-Mahon enue Mac-Mahon Avenue venue d Iena d Iena Avenue Hoche Avenue enue Ma Marceau Avenue de Friedand Charles de Gaulle - Etoile Arc de Triomphe Avenue Geor Avenue Montaigne Av G Av. Gabriel Avenue des Champs-Elysées B Boulevard Malesh Champs-Elysées Saint-Lazare Rue Saint-Lazare Boulevard Haussmann ann Rue Tronchet Concorde Rue e de Rivoli rue Scri Bd des Capucines Madeleine Rue Saint-Honoré Opéra R. du Qu mbre Aven péra R. du Petits Champs Bourse Trocadéro Quai des Tuileries s Louvre 7
8 RESEARCH Contacts for market studies Cyril Robert Research +33 (0) Contacts Philippe Perello Capital Markets Partner Knight Frank LLP +33 (0) Laurence Karsenti Retail +33 (0) Aron Shadbolt Knight Frank Valuation +33 (0) Nadège Pieczynski Analyst +33 (0) Aymeric Sevestre Office Agency +33 (0) Guylène Brossart Property Management +33 (0) Arnaud Cosny L Atelier Knight Frank +33 (0) arnaud.cosny@fr.knightfrank.com Knight Frank Commercial Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independant advice customised to their specfic needs. Knight Frank Research Reports are also availaible at KnightFrank.fr Knight Frank SNC 2015 This report is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Commercial Research or Knight Frank SNC for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank SNC in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank Commercial Research. Knight Frank SNC is the french branch of Knight Frank LLP. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England. Sources used in this report: ORIE, INSEE. Amérique Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Peru The Caribbean USA Europe Austria Belgium Czech Republic France Germany Ireland Italy Monaco Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Russia Spain Switzerland United-Kingdom Africa Botswana Kenya Malawi Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Asia Pacific Australia Cambodia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Middle East Kingdom of Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
55,700 sq m THE LETTING MARKET - H1 2015 LA DÉFENSE. Take up. Size of transactions 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 H12015
THE LETTING MARKET - H1 2015 LA DÉFENSE Take up 55,700 sq m Take up in sq m Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 116,500 27,200 15,100 60,600 161,200 101,600 245,500 119,800 105,500 28,000 16,600 45,400 55,700 17,000 82,700 13,200
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