Insurgencies, Terrorism and State Challenges in Central and South Asia

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1 Insurgencies, Terrorism and State Challenges in Central and South Asia New York University Department of Politics Fall 2010 Instructor: Seth Nye Course Description This course is designed to provide an understanding of modern insurgencies and terrorism in Central and South Asia and the challenges to various states these activities have engendered. The course will focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan with the wider regional conflicts and security issues connected to conflicts in those countries. The importance of the internationalization of conflicts in this region due to transnational terrorism and intervention by outside powers will also be discussed in depth. The course will begin with an overview of the regions and series of conflicts which have impacted the various countries involved. Students will examine issues such as terrorist tactics, asymmetric warfare and counterinsurgency doctrine. Instruction on state structures and governance with high levels of terrorism and insurgent violence will be provided in conjunction with discussions on political and social dynamics where conflict is occurring. Requirements and Grading Students will be evaluated on a variety of factors including their essays, class participation and weekly assessments. Two papers will be required with the first paper designed to ensure the student has an understanding of the major concepts of the course. The second paper will test the student s ability to analyze a particular topic or section of the course. A simulation exercise will also test the critical thinking ability of students to put their knowledge into a real world scenario. Weekly assessments will be done based on previous lecture material and the assigned readings. Students are expected to actively contribute in class with participation both in terms of attendance and class participation being graded. First Paper: 20% Second Paper: 30% Simulation Exercise: 15% Weekly Assessments: 20% Course Participation: 15% Office hours are 6-8pm on Mondays in Room 304 at 19 West 4 th St., but can also be scheduled through appointments. If you have any questions or concerns, please

2 the instructor. If you need additional time for an assignment please provide the reason why before the actual due date. Extensions may be granted on an individual and limited basis. If assignments are turned in late they will be subject to grade penalties. Any cheating or plagiarism will not be tolerated. Required Texts Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001, Hassan Abbas, Pakistan's Drift into Extremism. Allah the Army and America's War on Terror, Ahmed Rashid, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia, Week 1: Introduction to Central and South Asia Overview of Course and Assignments Regional Overview Afghanistan up until 1979 The partition of India, creation of Pakistan and new order in South Asia Dissolution of the Soviet Union and emergence of the Central Asian states Abbas, pgs Rashid, pgs Coll, pgs David Gibbs, Reassessing Soviet motives for invading Afghanistan: A declassified history, Critical Asian Studies, Vol. 38, Iss. 2, June 2006, Pgs Week 2: Terrorism, Insurgencies and the State Terrorist organizations, structures and networks How insurgencies develop and function Maintenance of state control, security and counterterrorism/counterinsurgency theories On Guerrilla Warfare, Mao Tse-tung, 1937; Read What Is Guerrilla Warfare?, The Relation Of Guerrilla Hostilities to Regular Operations, Organization For Guerilla Warfare.

3 The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual, Sarah Sewall, John A. Nagl, David H. Petraeus, and James F. Amos, July 4, Read Chapter 1 Insurgency and Counterinsurgency, Pgs. 1-1 to Twenty-Eight Articles: Fundamentals of Company Level Counterinsurgency, David Kilcullen, (7) Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, RAND, Pgs Robert Pape, The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3, Aug Pgs Week 3: Conflict in Afghanistan The Soviet Invasion and growth of the Afghan insurgency Pakistani, U.S. and Saudi intervention and support Abdullah Azzam and Maktab al Khidmat (Services Bureau) Coll, pgs , Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers, RAND, 2010, Read section Afghanistan (Anti-Soviet), Pgs How We Invaded Afghanistan, Oleg Kalugin, Foreign Policy, Dec Week 4: Post-Soviet Conflicts and Rise of the Taliban Afghan civil war and absence of state authority Rise of the Taliban and Northern Alliance Coll, , Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers, RAND, 2010, Read section Afghanistan (Post-Soviet), Pgs , and Afghanistan (Taliban), , Pgs Ahmed Rashid, Chapter One: Kandahar 1994: The Origins of the Taliban (excerpt from Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia by Ahmed Rashid), Yale University Press, Pgs Barnett Rubin, Post-cold war state disintegration: the failure of international conflict resolution in Afghanistan, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 46, Winter 1993, Pgs. pgs Afghanistan Lessons from the Last War (declassified US intelligence reports on Soviet Invasion and Afghan resistance), National Security Archive. Not required reading but useful background reading. Week 5: The Kashmir Insurgency and India-Pakistan Conflicts

4 Roots of the conflict and breakout of insurgency Secular nationalist to Islamist orientation of insurgents Indian counterinsurgency operations and Pakistani use of proxy fighters Impact on Indian and Pakistani relations Abbas, Pgs Rajat Ganguly, India, Pakistan and the Kashmir insurgency: causes, dynamics and prospects for resolution, Asian Studies Review, Vol. 25, Iss. 3, Sept Pgs Yoginder Sikand, The changing course of the Kashmiri struggle: From national liberation to Islamist Jihad?, The Muslim World, Vol. 91, Iss. 1/2, Spring Simon Jones, India, Pakistan, and counterinsurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir, Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 19, No. 1, March 2008, pgs Ishtiaq Ahmad, Towards a Kashmiri Settlement Beyond Jihad, Perceptions, Vol. 9, No. 1, March-May Pgs Arif Jamal, A Guide to Militant Groups in Kashmir, Jamestown Foundation, Feb. 4, Lydia Polgreen, Indian Forces Face Broader Revolt in Kashmir, New York Times, Aug. 12, Week 6: Conflicts in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ( ) The Tajikistan Civil War from The Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) and United Tajik Opposition (UTO) The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) Islam Karimov and state control in Uzbekistan Rashid, pgs Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers, RAND, 2010, Read section Tajikistan, , pgs Central Asia: Islamist Mobilisation and Regional Security, International Crisis Group, May 2001, pgs Week 7: Al-Qaeda (AQ) and Militant Networks in Afghanistan Osama bin-laden and the establishment of al-qaeda Cooperation and links among militant groups Training camps and the global Jihad Coll. pgs , , Gilles Kepel, The Origins and Development of the Jihadist Movement: From Anti-Communism to Terrorism, Asian Affairs, vol. 34 no. 2, July Pgs Week 8: Post-9/11 U.S. Intervention and Afghan Security

5 U.S. Invasion and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan The Taliban insurgency and Afghan militant networks Development of the Afghan Government, Military and Police Opium/Heroin trade and corruption Coll, pgs Kenneth Katzman, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, CRS, June 18, Pgs Seth Jones, Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, RAND, Pgs M. Chris Mason and Thomas H. Johnson, All Counterinsurgency Is Local, Atlantic Monthly, Jan Pgs. 1-3 Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun Alienation, International Crisis Group, Aug. 5, Pgs Week 9: Internal Challenges and Militancy in Pakistan Militant coalescence in Pakistan and challenges to the State Rise and formation of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Pakistani counterinsurgency operations Safe havens and the growth of militancy U.S. drone attacks and impact Abbas, Pgs Christine Fair, Seth Jones, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, RAND, 2010, read section Pakistani Operations Against Militants, Pgs. 5-18, Pgs Zafar Imran, Al-Qaeda s Ambitions in Pakistan: Changing Goals, Changing Strategies, Jamestown Foundation, Aug. 5, Steve Coll, Time Bomb: The death of Benazir Bhutto and the unraveling of Pakistan, New Yorker, Jan. 28, Sumit Ganguly, S. Paul Kapur, The Sorcerer s Apprentice: Islamist Militancy in South Asia, Washington Quarterly, Jan Hassan Abbas, A Profile of Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan, CTC Sentinel, Vol. 1, Iss. 2, Jan Week 10: Transnational Terrorism and Regional Impacts Terrorism Cases in the West and ties to Pakistan-based groups Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and the 2008 Mumbai Attacks The Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) and its foreign recruits Online and media propaganda efforts Readings Paul Cruickshank, The Militant Pipeline, New America Foundation, Feb Evan Kohlmann, Jihad Networks in Pakistan and Their Influence in Europe, NEFA Foundation, July 10, Barbara Sude, Al-Qaeda Central, New America Foundation, Feb

6 Stephen Tankel, Lashkar-e-Taiba: From 9/11 to Mumbai, ICSR, Apr./May Mumbai Attacks: Final Form Report, In the Court of Addl. Ch. M.M., 37 th Court, Esplanade Mumbai, Feb. 25, Christine Fair, Antecedents and Implications of the November 2008 Lashkare-Taiba (LeT) Attack Upon Several Targets in the Indian Mega-City of Mumbai, Testimony to the House Homeland Security Committee, Mar. 11, Thomas M. Sanderson, Daniel Kimmage, David A. Gordon, From the Ferghana Valley to South Waziristan, CSIS, March Week 11: Pakistan and India Security in the Nuclear Era Background on the development of nuclear capabilities The AQ Khan Network and security of Pakistani nuclear materials Conflict and the threat of Nuclear War Robert Wirsing, The Kashmir Territorial Dispute: Political Fallout of Nuclear Testing in South Asia, IBRU Boundary and Security Bulletin, Summer 1998 Steve Coll, The Stand-off: How jihadi groups helped provoke the twenty-first century s first nuclear crisis, New Yorker, Feb. 13, Seymour Hersh, Defending the Arsenal, New Yorker, Nov. 16, Christine Fair, Seth Jones, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, RAND, 2010, read section Asymmetric Conflict Under the Nuclear Umbrella, Pgs Lydia Polgreen, Sabrina Tavernise, Water Dispute Increases India-Pakistan Tension, New York Times, July 20, Steve Coll, The Atomic Emporium, New Yorker, August 7, Stephen Cohen, Nuclear Weapons and Conflict in South Asia, Nov. 23, William Langewiesche, The Wrath of Khan, Atlantic Monthly, Nov Week 12: Regional Security Efforts South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) The Fergana Valley and Collective Security in Central Asia Rashid, Pgs Andrew Scheineson, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Council on Foreign Relations, March 24, Sumit Ganguly, Counterterrorism Cooperation in South Asia: History and Prospects, The National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report #21, Dec Aparna Pande, Counter-terrorism Policies & Postures after 9/11, South Asia Terrorism Portal.

7 Week 13: Simulation Exercise Class will be broken up into groups and decisions made based on real world scenarios To Be Determined Week 14: Course Conclusion