Nivesh Commodity. Daily Change & Technical levels. Comex Division. 19 th May, Bullions (Spot) Last close % change

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1 Nivesh Commodity 19 th May, 2016 Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Alumni Gold Lease Rates 1 m % m % m % m % y % Scrip Close % Change R1 R2 PIVOT S1 S2 GOLD SILVER CRUDE NG COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALUMINIUM Comex Division Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Gold $ Silver $ * According to 18 MAY, Ankit Kapoor Sr. Research Analyst Mobile: Tel: ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 1

2 BULLION Gold prices drop in Asia as Fed minutes suggest near term rate hike On Wednesday, minutes released by the Federal Reserve from its April policy meeting suggested an interestrate increase in June was possible if incoming data showed an improving economy. As well, an assessment of risks posed by global economic and financial conditions was downplayed, and the minutes pointed to additional strengthening of the U.S. labor market despite an apparent slowdown in economic activity. Overnight, gold inched down halting a three day winning streak, as investors traded cautiously. Last month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 1 to leave the target range of its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged between 0.25 and 0.50%. At the time, the FOMC said it will assess economic conditions, measures of labor market conditions, indications of inflationary pressures and expectations, as well as readings on financial and international developments in determining the scope of future adjustments to the Fed Funds Rate. Gold traders also digested hawkish comments from a pair of non voting FOMC members on Tuesday regarding the potential for multiple rate hikes by the Fed before the end of At a joint appearance in Washington, both Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed president John Williams suggested that "two to three rate hikes," this year seems possible, while Lockhart noted that a rate hike will still remain on the table at the FOMC's next meeting on June Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with high yield bearing assets in rising rate environments. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed said on Wednesday morning that business inflation expectations increased 0.2 in its May reading to 1.9, its strongest reading since January. It came one day after the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in April, amid a surge in gasoline prices. The Core CPI Price Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.2% in line with analysts' expectations. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at and respectively. Today, Gold has support at and resistance at while Silver has support at and resistance at Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 2

3 ENERGY Oil drops on surging dollar, rising U.S. crude stocks, jump in Iran exports Oil prices fell on Thursday, pulled down by rising U.S. crude inventories, a stronger dollar and surging output from Iran to Europe and Asia. Both contracts broke 2016 highs earlier in the week on the back of output cuts across the Americas, in Africa and also in Asia. But the bull run ended after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published data showing an unexpected 1.31 million barrel rise in U.S. crude stocks to million barrels. "We suspect the oil market has moved too high, too far, too soon," French bank BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) said. The inventory build came despite another fall in U.S. crude oil production to 8.79 million barrels per day (bpd), down from a peak of over 9.6 million bpd last year. Despite this, analysts said oil was being pushed lower by the minutes of the Fed's April policy meeting which showed the central bank was likely to raise rates in June if economic data pointed to stronger second quarter growth, driving up the dollar. Since oil is traded in dollar, a stronger greenback makes fuel purchases for countries that use other currencies more expensive, potentially denting demand. After falling by almost 8 percent against a basket of other currencies (DXY) between January and April, the dollar has since recovered 3.5 percent, weighing on oil. Surging oil exports from Iran after sanctions against it were lifted in January also dragged. Iran's oil exports are set to jump nearly 60 percent in May from a year ago to 2.1 million bpd. The rises suggest that the country's logistical problems following years of sanctions have been overcome or were less severe than thought. Despite Thursday's price falls, analysts said that global supply disruptions still loomed. ANZ bank said that almost 2.5 million barrels of daily oil production has been lost since the start of the year, and that further cuts were likely. "The situation in Venezuela looks particularly bleak," the bank said, adding that the country's oil exports had fallen from 2.4 million bpd at the end of 2015 to 2.15 million bpd in April. "We suspect the nation's recent issues could see this fall below 2 million bpd in May," ANZ said. Overall, traders said that global oil markets would likely remain in a slight production surplus of between 0.1 and 1 million bpd this year, compared with a glut of as much as 2.5 million bpd in Crude oil settled at Crude oil has support at 3180 and resistance at Traders can buy Crude oil in panic with strict stop loss below 3180 on closing basis 3

4 BASE METAL Copper slips to 5 wk low Wed on strong dollar, demand concerns Copper slipped to five week low in afternoon trades Wednesday as the dollar strengthened against other currencies and on demand concerns from China, following weaker than expected economic data. Prices of industrial metals were under pressure as strong dollar index against other currencies denting investors' appetite for greenback denominated commodities. At 2:05PM dollar index, which measures strength of greenback against its six major trading partners, jumped 0.39% to Hawkish comments from key Federal Reserve officials ahead of FOMC minutes also putting pressure on base metals by supporting dollar index. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said it still "makes sense" for the Fed to hike short term interest rates two or three times this year given continued moderate US economic growth and low unemployment. "I think that the data to my mind are lining up to make a good case for rate increases in the next few meetings, not just June, which means it's very live in terms of that," said Williams on Tuesday in an interview with reporters and editors of The Wall Street Journal. If the central bank holds interest rates steady until inflation hits its 2% target, then it may have to raise them quickly, and that raises separate concerns, added Williams. John Williams currently is not a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal Open Market Committee. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said the Fed should raise rates in the "not too distant future." After Tuesday's report of a 0.4% rate of consumer price inflation in April, Kaplan said that "there's evidence we're inching towards reaching" the Fed's 2% annual target. "On monetary policy, in the not too distant future, we should take the next step towards removing some amount of accommodation, i.e. raising the fed funds rate." The Fed has kept that benchmark short term interest rate target in a range between 0.25% and 0.50% since December. Kaplan said the US economy should expand by about 2% in 2016 while unemployment falls below 5%, helped by consumer spending. Weaker than expected Chinese economic data also weighing on base metals. China's retail sales eased to 10.1% in April compared to 10.5% a year ago, missing market expectations of a pick up of 10.5%. Industrial production in the world s second largest economy slowed down to 6% in April from 6.8% a year ago, falling below forecast of 6.5%. China is the world's largest consumer of copper accounting for about 40% of total global demand and major consumer of other industrial metals. Copper Settled in MCX division at Today, Copper has support at and resistance at 315. Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation. 4

5 AGRI COMMODITY Soybean fluctuates on weak soymeal demand, supply hope Soybean fluctuated in morning trades Wednesday on weak demand for soymeal in domestic market and on supply hope following easing worries about delay monsoon rains in domestic. India's weather office said on Monday the late arrival of the monsoon will not delay crop sowing and that rains are expected to make rapid progress after their arrival around June 7. Moreover, Forecast for Brazil, the world's second biggest soybean producer, output hiked at 103 million tons compared to 99 million tons in the same period a year ago, the USDA said in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. Moreover, weather conditions in Argentina have improved which may help faster harvesting progress. Soybean prices were also down on lower consumption is domestic market due to hot temperature. Prices of the yellow bean were also under pressure on subdued demand for the Indian soymeal in export market on higher prices. Soybean oil meal exports plunged 91.99% to 1,442 tons in April compared to 18,017 tons for the corresponding period a year earlier, data released from Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed. India freight on board (FOB) soymeal price was at $493 per ton in April compared to $515 per ton for the same period year ago. US soymeal prices traded at $ per ton as of May 13. Soy oil slumped to over one week low in morning trades Wednesday on oversupply woes following robust imports data. India's soy oil imports rallied 86.35% to 348,195 tons in April compared to 186,849 tons for the same period a year ago, data release from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India showed. Prices of the oil were also under pressure on higher supply as according to April'16 WASDE, global Soy oil inventories stood at 3.73 million tons up by 2.3% from last estimate. Soy oil for June delivery slide 0.96% to Rs per 10 kilogram on the NCDEX. Soybean settled on NCDEX division at Soyabean has support at 3870 and resistance at Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 5

6 AGRI DAILY CHANGE AND TECHNICAL LEVELS Scrip Close % Change S1 S2 PIVOT R1 R2 Soybean Soyaref Rmseed Chana Jeera Turmeric Dhaniya Cocudakl Mentha oil CPO IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) e mail: ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 6