Reducing US Oil Consumption With Advanced Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)
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1 Reducing US Oil Consumption With Advanced Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) Analysis by AFS Trinity Power Corporation June AFS Trinity Power Corporation, Developer of the Extreme Hybrid Plug-in Drive Train
2 Hybrid Vehicles Effect on US Oil Year Oil Model: Base Case 30% hybrid market penetration in 2016 US Oil Consumption avg growth rate: 1.90% EIA High Growth Case Hybrid Vehicle Penetration in 2016: 30.00% Low hybrid adoption Hybrid Type: Std-2005 Conv savings: Up to 2.5 million Bbl/ day Oil w/o w/standard w/ Advanced PHEV Domestic US Oil Production Middle East 15% Other 49% 2016 US Oil Sources The US is currently on track for standard hybrid technology to account for 30% of all vehicles by 2016 based on present market trends (red line). Our base case assumes oil prices will remain stable (growing slowly) suggesting modest hybrid and Advanced Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) penetration of global auto markets. US Production 36% Note: The Advanced PHEV (dotted line above) does not require changes in infrastructure.
3 Oil Model: Moderate Case 45% hybrid market penetration in 2016 US Oil Consumption avg growth rate: 1.20% EIA Low Growth Case Hybrid Vehicle Penetration in 2016: 45.00% Med hybrid adoption Hybrid Type: Std-2005 Conv Hybrid Vehicles Effect on US Oil savings: up to 3.8 million bbl/ day Year Oil w/o w/standard w/ Advanced PHEV Domestic US Oil Production Other 54% 2016 US Oil Sources Middle East 5% This case assumes oil prices grow enough to cut growth in oil consumption from 1.9% per year to 1.2% per year. Hybrid vehicle penetration is 45% in US oil imports remain nearly flat with moderate adoption of conventional hybrids, but would actually drop with moderate rate of adoption of Advanced PHEV technology. US Production 41% Note: Advanced PHEV technology (dotted line above), with no changes in infrastructure, would produce oil savings in 2016 of 3.8 Million bbl/day.
4 Oil Model: High Case 68% hybrid market penetration in 2016 US Oil Consumption avg growth rate: 1.20% EIA Low Growth Case Hybrid Vehicle Penetration in 2016: 68.00% Hi hybrid adoption Hybrid Type: Std-2007 Conv savings: up to 5.7 million Bbl/ day Hybrid Vehicles Effect on US Oil Year Oil w/o w/standard w/ Advanced PHEV Domestic US Oil Production Other 56% 2016 US Oil Sources Middle East 0% Our high case assumes (1) oil prices grow enough to cut growth in oil consumption from 1.9% per year to 1.2% per year and (2) Hybrid vehicle prices are low enough to generate high penetration of 68% by US oil imports could drop below 2005 levels and stay there with high rates of adoption of Advanced PHEV technology. US Production 44% Note: Advanced PHEVs (dotted line above), with no infrastructure changes, would produce oil savings in 2016 of 5.7 Million bbl/day, more than enough to eliminate Middle East Oil imports, if that were necessary.
5 Oil Model: Hypothetical Maximum Case 80% hybrid market penetration in 2016 US Oil Consumption avg growth rate: 1.20% EIA Low Growth Case Hybrid Vehicle Penetration in 2016: 80.00% BAH Projection Hybrid Type: A-PHEV Advanced PHEV Hybrid Vehicles Effect on US Oil 2016 US Oil Sources savings: up to 6.7 million Bbl/ day Oil w/o w/standard w/ Advanced PHEV Domestic US Oil Production Other 47% Middle East 0% US Production 53% Year Our hypothetical maximum case assumes (1) oil prices will grow enough to cut growth in oil use from 1.9% per year to 1.2% per year and (2) Hybrid vehicle prices would be low enough to generate very high penetration of 80% by US oil imports could drop to three quarters of 2005 levels with highest projected rate of adoption of Advanced PHEV technology. Note: Advanced PHEV technology (dotted line above), with no changes in infrastructure, would produce oil savings in 2016 of 6.7 Million bbl/day, more than enough to eliminate the need for Middle East Oil.
6 Implications of Saving 6.7 Million Bbl/ day by 2016* It would Eliminate U.S. Need for Middle East Oil (4.5M Bbl/d) Cut U.S. Highway Vehicle Oil Use in Half Cut all U.S. Oil by 41% Cut Total U.S. Oil Use by One Third Cut U.S. Highway Vehicle CO 2 Emissions in Half *Note: These savings are based on Booz Allen Hamilton s maximum forecast (which BAH made in 2004 when oil was at $35/bbl) of 80% penetration of hybrids in 2016 (this assumes no changes in infrastructure).
7 Advanced PHEV Technology Will Enable Other Oil Conservation Measures It supplements grid power during peak periods It makes future fuel cell adoption more practical Advanced PHEV It burns less fuel and thereby makes alternative fuels more affordable
8 Appendix Transportation Oil Math-1 oil consumption = vehicles X oil used per vehicle oil used per vehicle = vehicle mpg X miles driven If you want to reduce vehicle-related oil consumption you can: - reduce the number of vehicles - reduce the oil used per vehicle If you want to reduce the oil used per vehicle you can: - improve MPG - Use fuels other than petroleum - reduce miles driven - All of the above For more information and an opportunity to test your own assumptions about PHEV adoption rates and oil consumption growth rates, experiment with the interactive version of our model at
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