Regional Competitive Industry Analysis

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1 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson Counties May 2014 Jefferson Deschutes Crook Michael Meyers, Economist (503) Global Strategies Section One World Trade Center 121 SW Salmon Street, Suite 205 Portland, OR 97204

2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 SECTION 1: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY... 4 Regional Indicators... 4 Competitive Industry Indicators... 5 Growth Projections... 5 Caveats and Limitations... 5 SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY... 6, Total Payroll and Average Wage per Job... 6 Growth... 6 Manufacturing and Wages... 7 Unemployment Rate... 8 SECTION 3: REGIONAL COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES... 9 Location Quotient Analysis... 9 Shift-Share Analysis Regional Projections by Industry Page 2 of 13

3 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson Counties Executive Summary This region is made up of the three counties that traditionally make up the area known as Central Oregon. Central Oregon has one of the fastest growing populations in state, with most of that growth centered in Deschutes County around the City of Bend. The region had the second fastest employment growth in the state between 2002 and 2012, with all employment growth happening in Deschutes County. The region s average wage is 19 percent lower than the statewide average, owing to an economy more dependent on service sector jobs and less dependent on goods producing industries. Nonetheless, the region has high paying, competitive industries in beverage manufacturing (primarily beer), software publishing, and electrical equipment and component manufacturing. Manufacturing was 9 percent of the region s private sector employment in 2012, which was lower than the statewide average of 12 percent. With a location quotient of 0.83, manufacturing is not very concentrated in the region and less important to the region s competitive advantages. Wood product manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region with nearly 1,400 jobs. Fabricated metal product and miscellaneous (including sporting goods) manufacturing are the next largest manufacturing subsectors in the region. The region has a high concentration of small manufacturers compared to the statewide average, and fewer medium and large sized manufacturers. Forestry, logging, and wood product manufacturing is the industry group with the highest location quotients in the region, but wood product manufacturing has seen competitive advantage erode over the past ten years. Electrical equipment and component manufacturing, beverage manufacturing (primarily beer), and software publishers are some of the competitive industries in the region that pay above average wages. Two of these industries, beverage manufacturing and software publishers, along with support activities for forestry, were leading traded sector industries in competitive advantage gains between 2002 and While industries related to the housing market, like construction and real estate, experienced significant competitive advantage percent and job losses between 2002 and 2012, those industries should improve significantly as the economy grows. Health care, leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and personal services experienced some of the largest competitive advantage job gains between 2002 and 2012 and should continue to thrive if population and tourism and recreation continue their rapid growth. Professional, scientific, and technical services was a leading traded sector emerging industry group with high competitive advantage gains between 2002 and 2012, and could be a source of high wage job growth in future years. in the region is projected to grow by 16 percent between 2012 and 2022, equal to the statewide rate. Industries projected to grow fastest include construction, health care, and professional and business services with growth of 24 percent or more between 2012 and Manufacturing is projected to grow by 19 percent, faster than the statewide average of 11 percent. Page 3 of 13

4 Introduction The purpose of this report is to present a competitive industry analysis of the regional economy consisting of Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson counties. Regional trends in employment and wages are analyzed and compared to trends in Oregon and the U.S. This report provides data and analysis to help economic development practitioners, policy makers, and businesses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that pertain to their regional economy. The information in this report can be used to help guide strategic economic development efforts in the region. This report is composed of four sections. Section one outlines the data sources and methodology behind the creation of this report. The second section provides an overview of the regional economy by analyzing employment and wage trends over time. Section three supplies a framework to identify industries in the region that may have a competitive advantage in developing or expanding regional industry specialization. Section four analyzes ten year employment projections of the region s main industries and identifies industries with above average growth potential. Section 1: Sources and Methodology This report is based on analysis of statistical data from the Oregon Department, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The methodology for this report uses a series of indicators to provide a framework for evaluating the competitive strengths and growth opportunities of the regional economy. The following indicators are used for this report. Regional Indicators Section two begins with a comparative analysis of the regional economy focusing on private sector business establishments, employment, total payroll, and average wage to show the geographic distribution and characteristics of employment in each region. Recent employment and wage trends are also analyzed and compared to the state. This analysis is followed by analysis of manufacturing employment and wages. and average annual wages of leading manufacturing subsectors are presented, along with their location quotients. A location quotient measures the employment concentration of a given industry in a region compared to that industry s employment concentration in the nation as a whole. Location quotients above 1.0 indicate that an industry s share of employment in the region was greater than its share of employment nationwide. For example, an industry with a location quotient of 2.0 has twice as much employment locally as the national average for that industry. Location quotients are a simple way to help identify industries in the region that have a competitive advantage as demonstrated by a greater than average employment concentration. An analysis of manufacturing establishments by size class follows, which shows the distribution of manufacturers in the region amongst four different size classes. This analysis shows how much a region may be dependent on small, medium, or large-size manufacturers. Page 4 of 13

5 The unemployment rate analysis reveals how well the region has done at creating and retaining jobs for its working-age population. The analysis compares the regional unemployment rate to rates from Oregon and the U.S., which shows whether the region has performed better or worse than average. This comparative analysis also provides insight into how autonomous the region s economy is from Oregon and the U.S. Competitive Industry Indicators Section three begins with two detailed analyses that attempt to identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region. A detailed location quotient analysis by four digit NAICS codes shows industries in the region that appear to have a competitive advantage based on high location quotients. This analysis includes all sectors of the economy, not just manufacturing. Industries with high location quotients and higher than average wages are highlighted. Following the location quotient analysis is a shift-share analysis. Shift-share analysis, like location quotient analysis, is useful in identifying industries with a competitive advantage in the region. Unlike a location quotient analysis that is a point-in-time analysis, shift-share analysis looks at industry performance over time to measure how employment in an industry changed in relation to national and industrial trends. If a region s industry consistently outperforms its peers nationwide over a period of time this indicates a growing competitive advantage for that industry. The shiftshare analysis examines the ten-year growth rates for regional and nationwide industry employment. change over the past ten years for each industry is broken out by change due to national total employment trends, change due to national industry employment trends, and change due to competitive advantage. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present competitive share percent changes and competitive share job gains and losses for industries in the region that had the largest gains and losses in competitive advantage. Growth Projections Section four examines employment growth projections for the major industries in each region. Growth projections are a good way to identify industries where employment growth is projected to occur. Current projections cover the period from 2012 to Caveats and Limitations and wage data throughout the report comes from Quarterly Census of and Wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oregon Department. This data is limited to employment and wages that are covered under unemployment insurance in Oregon. The Department estimates that about 90 percent of jobs in Oregon are covered by unemployment insurance. data presented in the Table 9 is total non-farm employment and not limited to covered employment in Oregon. The manufacturing establishments by size data in Table 3 is a combination of two data sets. The total number of manufacturing establishments comes from Quarterly Census of and Wage (QCEW) data from the Oregon Department. The percent of manufacturing establishments by employment size-class data comes from County Business Patterns (CBP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data sets are combined in this table because the QCEW data Page 5 of 13

6 is more accurate in its total count of establishments, but it does not include size class data for counties. The CBP data does have size class data for counties, but its overall number of establishments by county is not as accurate as the QCEW. Combined, one can estimate the number of establishments by employment-size class. Section 2: Overview of the Regional Economy, Total Payroll, and Average Wage per Job Private sector employment in this region accounted for 4.4 percent of Oregon s total private sector employment in The 2012 private sector average annual wage in the region was $35,440, 18.8 percent lower than the statewide average. Deschutes County accounts for 86.8 percent of total private sector employment in the region. Crook County had the highest average annual wage in the region, $39,429. Table 1:, Total Wages, and Average Wage per Job, Private Sector, 2012 Area Total Payroll Average Wage % of Region % of Statewide Ave. Wage Crook 4,377 $172,581,275 $39, % 90.3% Deschutes 51,943 $1,845,162,572 $35, % 81.4% Jefferson 3,489 $101,895,120 $29, % 66.9% Region 59,809 $2,119,638,967 $35, % 81.2% Oregon 1,373,607 $59,948,736,635 $43,643 N/A 100.0% Source: Oregon Depart ment, Quart erly Census of & Wages. Growth The region s ten year private sector employment growth ranked 2 nd in the state. Private sector employment growth in the region was 120 percent higher than Oregon over the past ten years. All private sector employment growth in the region between 2002 and 2012 was in Deschutes County. Deschutes County employment increased by 12.7 percent over the ten years, while employment decreased by 8.2 and 13.4 percent in Crook and Jefferson counties. Deschutes County s ten year employment growth was over three times higher than the state s growth rate. Page 6 of 13

7 Area Table 2: Change in Private Sector, Change Change Rank Crook 4,767 4, % 32 Deschutes 46,073 51, % 8 Jefferson 4,030 3, % 34 Region 54,870 59, % 2 Oregon 1,320,125 1,373, % N/A Source: Oregon Department, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Manufacturing and Wages Manufacturing was 8.9 percent of the region s private sector employment in With a location quotient of 0.83, manufacturing is not very concentrated in the region and less important to the region s competitive advantages. Wood product manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for one quarter of manufacturing employment in the region. The region has a high concentration of small manufacturers, with a much higher percentage of manufacturers with 1 to 19 employees, and much lower percentages of medium and large manufacturers. Table 3: Manufacturing and Wages, 2012 Location Average NAICS Industry Total Pay Quotient Wage Manufacturing 5,349 $212,646, $39, Wood Product Manufacturing 1,364 $46,990, $34, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 459 $18,077, $39, Miscellaneous Manufacturing 331 $10,950, $33, Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 326 $17,745, $54, Food Manufacturing 302 $7,321, $24, Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 271 $10,931, $40, Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 223 $8,965, $40, Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing 213 $14,822, $69, Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 204 $5,866, $28, Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 156 $6,987, $44, Chemical Manufacturing 113 $6,672, $59, Printing and Related Support Activities 101 $3,113, $30, Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 96 $3,287, $34, Machinery Manufacturing 93 $3,368, $36, Textile Product Mills 45 $853, $18,977 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 7 of 13

8 Table 4: Manufacturing Establishments by Size, 2012 Percent of Manufacturing Establishments by -Size Class Total Manufacturing Establishments or More Area Crook % 13.8% 6.9% 0.0% Deschutes % 12.0% 2.3% 0.4% Jefferson % 15.8% 5.3% 5.3% Region % 12.4% 2.9% 0.6% Oregon 5, % 18.2% 4.2% 1.8% Source: Total establishments from Oregon Department, Quarterly Census of & Wages; employment-size class data from U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Pat terns, Unemployment Rate The region s unemployment rate was slightly lower than the state s rate for the first half of the past ten years, but has been much higher since 2008 as a result of the recession s larger than normal impact on the region and its real estate heavy economy. The region reached its highest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 15.0 percent, in 2009 and has since declined at a rate similar to the state, but the region s rate remains elevated compared to Oregon and the U.S. The lowest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 4.9 percent, occurred in Page 8 of 13

9 Section 3: Regional Competitive Industries Location Quotient Analysis Forestry, logging, and wood product manufacturing is the industry group with the highest location quotients in the region. Other crop farming, other electrical equipment and component manufacturing, beverage manufacturing (primarily beer), and software publishers are additional traded sector industries with high location quotients in the region and higher than average wages, except for crop farming. Table 5: Industries with Highest Location Quotients Private Sector, 2012, U.S. Base Area, Industries with Greater than 50, Industries with Average Wage above Region Average Shaded NAICS Industry Total Pay Location Quotient Average Wage 1153 Support Activities for Forestry 211 $7,305, $34, Other Wood Product Manufacturing 1,273 $43,994, $34, Other Crop Farming 266 $6,423, $24, Religious Organizations 717 $14,562, $20, Logging 180 $7,449, $41, Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 253 $11,212, $44, Other Electrical Equipment and Component Manufacturing200 $14,401, $72, Land Subdivision 60 $3,115, $51, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance130 $6,396, $49, Beverage Manufacturing 223 $8,965, $40, Traveler Accommodation 2,082 $46,926, $22, Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores 554 $9,321, $16, Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living 828 Facilities $16,921,916 for the Elderly1.94 $20, Business Support Services 862 $27,904, $32, Residential Building Construction 592 $19,676, $33, Software Publishers 284 $22,138, $77, Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing 257 $8,679, $33, Offices of Other Health Practitioners 685 $21,086, $30, Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 245 $8,432, $34, Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 466 $17,318, $37, Offices of Dentists 745 $37,039, $49, Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance 59 $1,302, $22, Other General Merchandise Stores 1,327 $36,449, $27, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses 220 $7,177, $32, Social Advocacy Organizations 157 $6,561, $41, Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 279 $4,593, $16, RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps 44 $764, $17, Offices of Physicians 1,866 $137,292, $73,576 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 9 of 13

10 Shift-Share Analysis Health care industries were prominent in competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and 2012 in the region as the region continues to grow and attract retirees. Support activities for forestry, software publishers, and beverage manufacturing (primarily beer) were leading traded sector industries in competitive advantage percent and job gains between 2002 and Aside from health care, industries supporting the region s rapidly growing population and tourism and recreation industries experienced some of the largest competitive advantage job gains between 2002 and 2012, such as drinking places, electronics and appliance stores, child day care services, and sporting goods, hobby, and musical instrument stores. Industries related to the housing market, like construction and real estate, experienced significant competitive advantage percent and job losses between 2002 and Automotive parts, accessories, and tire stores experienced the largest competitive advantage percent and job loss between 2002 and Other wood product manufacturing was a key competitive industry with large competitive advantage percent and job losses between 2002 and Professional, scientific, and technical services was a leading emerging traded sector industry group with high competitive advantage percent and job gains between 2002 and Emerging industries (those with a location quotient less than 1.0) related to the region s population growth, included those in health care, retail trade, personal care services, and banking also experienced large competitive advantage percent and job gains between 2002 and Page 10 of 13

11 Table 6: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Greater than 50 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 6211 Offices of Physicians 1, % 1, Support Activities for Forestry % Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) % Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction % Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance % Social Advocacy Organizations % Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying % Software Publishers % Beverage Manufacturing % Electronics and Appliance Stores % Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities % Other Schools and Instruction % Technical and Trade Schools % Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing % Child Day Care Services % Offices of Other Health Practitioners % Business, Professional, Labor, Political, and Similar Organizations % Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers % Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing % Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores % Scientific Research and Development Services % General Freight Trucking % Logging % Other Crop Farming % 93 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 11 of 13

12 Table 7: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Losses, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Greater than 50 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores % Activities Related to Real Estate % Other Specialty Trade Contractors % Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers % Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores % Gasoline Stations % Waste Collection % Other Wood Product Manufacturing 1, % Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors % Building Finishing Contractors % Residential Building Construction % Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturing % Home Furnishings Stores % Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers % -1 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Table 8: Emerging Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Less than 1.0 and Greater than 50 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services % Other Ambulatory Health Care Services % Shoe Stores % Special Food Services % Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing % Specialized Design Services % Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant Wholesalers % Personal Care Services % Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing % Private Households % Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers % Outpatient Care Centers % Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers % Other Personal Services % Securities and Commodity Contracts Intermediation and Brokerage % Other Support Services % Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers % Depository Credit Intermediation % Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services % Home Health Care Services % Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services % Services 1, % 288 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 12 of 13

13 Projections by Industry Total regional employment is projected to grow by 12,140 jobs between 2012 and 2022, a 16 percent increase, slightly larger than projected statewide growth of 15 percent. Construction is expected to experience the greatest percent increase in employment over the next ten years after experiencing large job losses in the recession. Manufacturing employment is projected to increase 19 percent between 2012 and 2022, 8 percentage points higher than the statewide projection. Health care and leisure and hospitality are projected to experience the greatest absolute increase in jobs of all industries in the region between 2012 and Only one industry federal government is expected to experience a decrease in employment between 2012 and Table 9: Regional Industry Forecast, Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson Counties Change % Change Total payroll employment 73,620 85,760 12,140 16% Total private 61,180 72,430 11,250 18% Natural resources and mining 1,330 1, % Mining and logging % Construction 3,250 4, % Manufacturing 5,370 6,380 1,010 19% Durable goods 4,320 5, % Wood product manufacturing 1,890 2, % Nondurable goods 1,040 1, % Trade, transportation, and utilities 14,260 15,920 1,660 12% Wholesale trade 2,300 2, % Retail trade 10,300 11,510 1,210 12% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 1,660 1, % Information 1,450 1, % Financial activities 4,490 5, % Professional and business services 6,990 8,680 1,690 24% Private educational and health services 10,780 13,400 2,620 24% Health care and social assistance 9,990 12,450 2,460 25% Health care 8,690 10,860 2,170 25% Leisure and hospitality 10,660 12,810 2,150 20% Accommodation and food services 8,980 10,730 1,750 19% Other services 2,600 2, % Government 12,440 13, % Federal government 1,330 1, % State government 1,780 1, % Local government 9,330 10, % Local education 4,170 4, % Source: Oregon Department Page 13 of 13

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