Regional Competitive Industry Analysis

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1 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington Counties May 2014 Washington Multnomah Clackamas Michael Meyers, Economist (503) Global Strategies Section One World Trade Center 121 SW Salmon Street, Suite 205 Portland, OR 97204

2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 SECTION 1: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY... 4 Regional Indicators... 4 Competitive Industry Indicators... 5 Growth Projections... 5 Caveats and Limitations... 5 SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY... 6, Total Payroll and Average Wage per Job... 6 Growth... 6 Manufacturing and Wages... 7 Unemployment Rate... 8 SECTION 3: REGIONAL COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES... 9 Location Quotient Analysis... 9 Shift-Share Analysis Regional Projections by Industry Page 2 of 14

3 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington Counties Executive Summary The three counties in this region comprise the majority of the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area in terms of population and jobs. 53 percent of total private sector employment in Oregon is found here. Situated around the City of Portland and the mouth of the Willamette River, this region is the historic and current epicenter of Oregon s economy. The region s economy is diverse with competitive industries in high technology manufacturing, professional and technical services, software, and management of companies, but high technology manufacturing has an overweight impact on economic output. The private sector average wage in the region is 18 percent higher than the statewide average. The region was the 4 th fastest growing region in Oregon between 2002 and 2012, and grew faster than the statewide average over that time. This growth has not been evenly distributed throughout the region, though. Washington County, with more employment than Clackamas County, but less than Multnomah County, has been growing much faster than the other two counties over the past 10 years. Washington County employment grew by 11.7 percent between 2002 and 2012 compared to 4.8 and 1.7 percent for Clackamas and Multnomah counties. Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region s private sector employment in 2012, which was higher than the statewide average of 12 percent. With a location quotient of 1.21, manufacturing is very important to the region s economy and competitive advantages. Computer and electronic product manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region with over 32,000 jobs. Fabricated metal product and food manufacturing are the next largest manufacturing subsectors in the region. Amongst competitive industries in the region, professional, scientific, and technical services, transportation equipment manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, e-commerce stores, and data processing, hosting, and related services increased their competitive advantages in the region between 2002 and 2012, while apparel, piece goods, and notions merchant wholesale trade and activities related to credit intermediation in financial services saw their competitive advantages erode over the past 10 years. Amongst emerging industries in the region, nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing, support activities for crop production, amusement and recreation industries, motion picture and video industries, and health care related services and medical equipment and supplies manufacturing saw the highest competitive advantage percent and job gains in the region between 2002 and These industries have location quotients below 1.0, but could be a source of high wage job growth in the region in coming years. in the region is projected to grow by 16 percent between 2012 and 2022, a little faster than the statewide rate of 15 percent. Industries projected to grow faster than average include construction and professional, scientific, and technical services, with growth of 25 percent or more between 2012 and Manufacturing is projected to grow by 9 percent, slower than the statewide average of 11 percent. Page 3 of 14

4 Introduction The purpose of this report is to present a competitive industry analysis of the regional economy consisting of Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties. Regional trends in employment and wages are analyzed and compared to trends in Oregon and the U.S. This report provides data and analysis to help economic development practitioners, policy makers, and businesses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that pertain to their regional economy. The information in this report can be used to help guide strategic economic development efforts in the region. This report is composed of four sections. Section one outlines the data sources and methodology behind the creation of this report. The second section provides an overview of the regional economy by analyzing employment and wage trends over time. Section three supplies a framework to identify industries in the region that may have a competitive advantage in developing or expanding regional industry specialization. Section four analyzes ten year employment projections of the region s main industries and identifies industries with above average growth potential. Section 1: Sources and Methodology This report is based on analysis of statistical data from the Oregon Department, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The methodology for this report uses a series of indicators to provide a framework for evaluating the competitive strengths and growth opportunities of the regional economy. The following indicators are used for this report. Regional Indicators Section two begins with a comparative analysis of the regional economy focusing on private sector business establishments, employment, total payroll, and average wage to show the geographic distribution and characteristics of employment in each region. Recent employment and wage trends are also analyzed and compared to the state. This analysis is followed by analysis of manufacturing employment and wages. and average annual wages of leading manufacturing subsectors are presented, along with their location quotients. A location quotient measures the employment concentration of a given industry in a region compared to that industry s employment concentration in the nation as a whole. Location quotients above 1.0 indicate that an industry s share of employment in the region was greater than its share of employment nationwide. For example, an industry with a location quotient of 2.0 has twice as much employment locally as the national average for that industry. Location quotients are a simple way to help identify industries in the region that have a competitive advantage as demonstrated by a greater than average employment concentration. An analysis of manufacturing establishments by size class follows, which shows the distribution of manufacturers in the region amongst four different size classes. This analysis shows how much a region may be dependent on small, medium, or large-size manufacturers. Page 4 of 14

5 The unemployment rate analysis reveals how well the region has done at creating and retaining jobs for its working-age population. The analysis compares the regional unemployment rate to rates from Oregon and the U.S., which shows whether the region has performed better or worse than average. This comparative analysis also provides insight into how autonomous the region s economy is from Oregon and the U.S. Competitive Industry Indicators Section three begins with two detailed analyses that attempt to identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region. A detailed location quotient analysis by four digit NAICS codes shows industries in the region that appear to have a competitive advantage based on high location quotients. This analysis includes all sectors of the economy, not just manufacturing. Industries with high location quotients and higher than average wages are highlighted. Following the location quotient analysis is a shift-share analysis. Shift-share analysis, like location quotient analysis, is useful in identifying industries with a competitive advantage in the region. Unlike a location quotient analysis that is a point-in-time analysis, shift-share analysis looks at industry performance over time to measure how employment in an industry changed in relation to national and industrial trends. If a region s industry consistently outperforms its peers nationwide over a period of time this indicates a growing competitive advantage for that industry. The shiftshare analysis examines the ten-year growth rates for regional and nationwide industry employment. change over the past ten years for each industry is broken out by change due to national total employment trends, change due to national industry employment trends, and change due to competitive advantage. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present competitive share percent changes and competitive share job gains and losses for industries in the region that had the largest gains and losses in competitive advantage. Growth Projections Section four examines employment growth projections for the major industries in each region. Growth projections are a good way to identify industries where employment growth is projected to occur. Current projections cover the period from 2012 to Caveats and Limitations and wage data throughout the report comes from Quarterly Census of and Wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oregon Department. This data is limited to employment and wages that are covered under unemployment insurance in Oregon. The Department estimates that about 90 percent of jobs in Oregon are covered by unemployment insurance. data presented in the Table 9 is total non-farm employment and not limited to covered employment in Oregon. The manufacturing establishments by size data in Table 3 is a combination of two data sets. The total number of manufacturing establishments comes from Quarterly Census of and Wage (QCEW) data from the Oregon Department. The percent of manufacturing establishments by employment size-class data comes from County Business Patterns (CBP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data sets are combined in this table because the QCEW data Page 5 of 14

6 is more accurate in its total count of establishments, but it does not include size class data for counties. The CBP data does have size class data for counties, but its overall number of establishments by county is not as accurate as the QCEW. Combined, one can estimate the number of establishments by employment-size class. Section 2: Overview of the Regional Economy, Total Payroll, and Average Wage per Job Private sector employment in this region accounted for 52.6 percent of Oregon s total private sector employment in The 2012 private sector average annual wage in the region was $51,374, 17.7 percent higher than the statewide average. Multnomah County accounts for half of total private sector employment in the region. Washington County had the highest average annual wage in the region, $60,173. Table 1:, Total Wages, and Average Wage per Job, Private Sector, 2012 Average Wage % of Region % of Statewide Ave. Wage Area Total Payroll Clackamas 123,454 $5,486,299,390 $44, % 101.8% Multnomah 371,030 $17,910,252,928 $48, % 110.6% Washington 228,118 $13,726,529,696 $60, % 137.9% Region 722,602 $37,123,082,014 $51, % 117.7% Oregon 1,373,607 $59,948,736,635 $43,643 N/A 100.0% Source: Oregon Depart ment, Quart erly Census of & Wages. Growth The region s ten year private sector employment growth ranked 4 th in the state. Private sector employment growth in the region was 27 percent higher than Oregon over the past ten years. Private sector employment in Washington County grew about three times faster than the statewide average, while employment growth in Multnomah County significantly trailed the statewide average. Clackamas County grew a little faster than the statewide average. Page 6 of 14

7 Area Table 2: Change in Private Sector, Change Change Rank Clackamas 117, , % 13 Multnomah 364, , % 18 Washington 204, , % 10 Region 686, , % 4 Oregon 1,320,125 1,373, % N/A Source: Oregon Department, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Manufacturing and Wages Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region s private sector employment in With a location quotient of 1.21, manufacturing is very important to the region s economy and competitive advantages. Computer and electronic product manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for over a third of manufacturing employment in the region. The region has a different distribution of manufacturing establishments by employment-size class than the state, with a lower percentage of establishments with 1-19 employees than the statewide average and higher percentages of medium and large businesses than the state. Table 3: Manufacturing and Wages, 2012 Location Average NAICS Industry Total Pay Quotient Wage Manufacturing 94,080 $7,199,563, $76, Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing32,332 $3,887,895, $120, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 10,553 $530,808, $50, Food Manufacturing 8,315 $336,743, $40, Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 6,646 $430,283, $64, Machinery Manufacturing 6,256 $483,198, $77, Primary Metal Manufacturing 5,592 $385,915, $69, Miscellaneous Manufacturing 3,896 $170,541, $43, Printing and Related Support Activities 3,841 $174,658, $45, Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 2,769 $121,490, $43, Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 2,259 $109,910, $48, Wood Product Manufacturing 2,016 $87,626, $43, Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 1,986 $79,321, $39, Paper Manufacturing 1,889 $105,041, $55, Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component 1,793 Manufacturing $109,668, $61, Chemical Manufacturing 1,275 $68,386, $53,636 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 7 of 14

8 Table 4: Manufacturing Establishments by Size, 2012 Percent of Manufacturing Establishments by -Size Class Total Manufacturing Establishments or More Area Clackamas % 16.6% 4.3% 2.2% Multnomah 1, % 18.7% 4.9% 1.5% Washington % 22.5% 5.5% 2.9% Region 2, % 19.4% 5.0% 2.1% Oregon 5, % 18.2% 4.2% 1.8% Source: Total establishments from Oregon Department, Quarterly Census of & Wages; employment-size class data from U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Pat terns, Unemployment Rate The region s unemployment rate was consistently lower than the state s unemployment rate between 2002 and 2012, and has been similar to the U.S. rate since The region reached its highest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 10.0 percent, in 2009 and has since declined to a level below the statewide and U.S. rates. The lowest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 4.6 percent, occurred in Page 8 of 14

9 Section 3: Regional Competitive Industries Location Quotient Analysis Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing, software publishers, and industrial machinery manufacturing are the industries with the highest location quotients and highest average wages amongst competitive industries in the region. Management of companies and enterprises is the second largest competitive industry in the region that pays well above the region average. The region is also very competitive in professional, scientific, and technical services, metals manufacturing, and other high technology related industries. Table 5: Industries with Highest Location Quotients Private Sector, 2012, U.S. Base Area, Industries with Greater than 200, Industries with Average Wage above Region Average Shaded NAICS Industry Total Pay Location Quotient Average Wage 3344 Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing 25,186 $3,254,817, $129, Religious Organizations 6,840 $149,964, $21, Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production 4,193 $113,516, $27, Software Publishers 6,188 $629,606, $101, Industrial Machinery Manufacturing 2,096 $222,881, $106, Foundries 2,285 $182,672, $79, Audio and Video Equipment Manufacturing 351 $21,884, $62, Specialized Design Services 1,701 $93,448, $54, Support Activities for Water Transportation 1,161 $78,396, $67, Other Food Manufacturing 2,173 $79,629, $36, Activities Related to Credit Intermediation 3,323 $226,027, $68, Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 3,009 $273,160, $90, Technical and Trade Schools 1,466 $52,146, $35, Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing 3,252 $127,226, $39, Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living 9,066 Facilities $207,202,087 for the Elderly 1.76 $22, Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant Wholesalers 2,042 $137,655, $67, Management of Companies and Enterprises 21,988 $1,956,815, $88, Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments 4,330 Manufacturing $388,683, $89, Glass and Glass Product Manufacturing 861 $43,267, $50, Educational Support Services 1,263 $66,252, $52, Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 3,598 $57,017, $15, Social Advocacy Organizations 1,997 $84,811, $42, Cutlery and Handtool Manufacturing 394 $19,936, $50, Activities Related to Real Estate 5,754 $215,069, $37, Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers 7,006 $367,697, $52, Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Merchant 3,067 Wholesalers $154,629, $50, Other Support Services 2,786 $114,656, $41, Support Activities for Road Transportation 816 $23,035, $28, Business Support Services 7,735 $266,930, $34, Outpatient Care Centers 6,062 $494,652, $81, Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except 1,764 Automotive $147,888,228 and Electronic) 1.42 Repair $83,837 and Maintenance Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 9 of 14

10 Shift-Share Analysis Specialized design services, which includes industrial, graphic, and apparel design services, and management, scientific, and technical consulting services were the leading industries in competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and These professional, scientific, and technical services, and others like them, are an integral part of this region s traded sector and competitive advantages going forward. Transportation equipment manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, e-commerce stores, and data processing, hosting, and related services, which includes data centers, also experienced large competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing experienced the largest competitive advantage job gains between 2002 and This industry had higher competitive advantage job gains than the next three leading industries combined and is the most important manufacturing subsector to this region. Apparel, piece goods, and notions merchant wholesale trade was the industry that experienced the most competitive advantage percent and job losses between 2002 and Activities related to credit intermediation in financial services experienced the next largest competitive advantage job losses. Other nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing and support activities for crop production had the highest competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and 2012 amongst emerging industries with location quotients of less than 1.0. Other amusement and recreation industries, motion picture and video industries, and industries related to health care, including medical equipment and supplies manufacturing, had the largest competitive advantage job gains between 2002 and 2012 amongst emerging industries with location quotients of less than 1.0. Page 10 of 14

11 Table 6: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Greater than 200 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 5414 Specialized Design Services 1, % Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services 7, % 2, Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing % Office Furniture (including Fixtures) Manufacturing % Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses 2, % Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 3, % 1, Other Schools and Instruction 3, % Fruit and Tree Nut Farming 1, % Offices of Other Health Practitioners 6, % 1, Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living Facilities 9,066 for the 1.76Elderly 44.4% 2, Beer, Wine, and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers 1, % Glass and Glass Product Manufacturing % Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing 2, % Electronics and Appliance Stores 4, % 1, Other Food Manufacturing 2, % Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing 25, % 7, Residential Building Construction 4, % 1, Specialty Food Stores 1, % Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services 3, % Foundries 2, % Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 3, % Spring and Wire Product Manufacturing % 103 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 11 of 14

12 Table 7: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Losses, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Greater than 200 Location Competitive Competitive NAICS Industry 2012 Quotient Share Percent Share Jobs 4243 Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant Wholesalers 1, % -3, Cutlery and Handtool Manufacturing % Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief 1,271 Services % Local Messengers and Local Delivery % Activities Related to Credit Intermediation 3, % -1, Support Activities for Air Transportation 1, % Paper and Paper Product Merchant Wholesalers % Other Support Services 2, % Support Activities for Road Transportation % Vocational Rehabilitation Services 2, % Religious Organizations 6, % -1, Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 8, % Activities Related to Real Estate 5, % Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies 1,706 Merchant Wholesalers % Software Publishers 6, % Scheduled Air Transportation 3, % Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments 4,330 Manufacturing % -424 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Table 8: Emerging Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Less than 1.0 and Greater than 200 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 3279 Other Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing % Support Activities for Crop Production % Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories 1, % Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers % Motion Picture and Video Industries 2, % Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers % Ship and Boat Building % Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing % Remediation and Other Waste Management Services % Facilities Support Services % Animal Slaughtering and Processing % Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores % Textile Furnishings Mills % Health and Personal Care Stores 4, % Logging % Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 1, % Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing % Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 5, % Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing % 70 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 12 of 14

13 Projections by Industry Total regional employment is projected to grow by 136,700 jobs between 2012 and 2022, a 16 percent increase, slightly larger than projected statewide growth rate of 15 percent. Professional and technical services and construction are the two industries expected to experience the greatest percent increase in employment over the next ten years. Health care is projected to experience the greatest absolute increase in jobs of any industry in the region between 2012 and Manufacturing is projected to grow by 9 percent, less than the statewide rate of 11 percent. Only one industry federal government is expected to experience a decrease in employment between 2012 and Page 13 of 14

14 Table 9: Regional Industry Forecast, Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington Counties Change % Change Total payroll employment 833, , ,700 16% Total private 728, , ,550 17% Natural resources and mining 9,440 11,130 1,690 18% Mining and logging % Construction 38,550 49,880 11,330 29% Construction of buildings 9,240 11,920 2,680 29% Heavy and civil engineering construction 3,370 3, % Specialty trade contractors 25,940 34,000 8,060 31% Manufacturing 94, ,120 8,670 9% Durable goods 73,610 80,580 6,970 9% Primary metal manufacturing 5,580 6, % Computer and electronic product manufacturing 32,390 34,210 1,820 6% Nondurable goods 20,840 22,540 1,700 8% Trade, transportation, and utilities 153, ,550 18,730 12% Wholesale trade 40,320 45,590 5,270 13% Retail trade 84,650 94,960 10,310 12% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 28,850 32,000 3,150 11% Information 19,460 21,760 2,300 12% Financial activities 53,300 60,010 6,710 13% Finance and insurance 35,350 39,500 4,150 12% Real estate and rental and leasing 17,950 20,510 2,560 14% Professional and business services 128, ,160 31,120 24% Professional and technical services 50,870 63,810 12,940 25% Architectural and engineering services 9,250 11,140 1,890 20% Computer systems design and related services 8,970 12,510 3,540 39% Management of companies and enterprises 28,030 33,560 5,530 20% Administrative and waste services 49,140 61,790 12,650 26% Private educational and health services 118, ,340 27,090 23% Private educational services 22,380 27,350 4,970 22% Health care and social assistance 95, ,990 22,120 23% Ambulatory health care services 36,910 46,720 9,810 27% Hospitals 23,690 27,760 4,070 17% Nursing and residential care facilities 19,230 23,590 4,360 23% Social assistance 16,040 19,920 3,880 24% Leisure and hospitality 82,940 97,220 14,280 17% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 11,390 13,080 1,690 15% Accommodation and food services 71,550 84,140 12,590 18% Accommodation 7,650 8, % Food services and drinking places 63,900 76,030 12,130 19% Other services 30,210 34,840 4,630 15% Government 105, ,620 10,150 10% Federal government 14,160 13, % State government 18,190 20,070 1,880 10% Local government 73,120 82,060 8,940 12% Source: Oregon Department Page 14 of 14

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