CHART OF THE WEEK WEEK ON THE MARKETS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 35/2014. Resources productivity (PPS/kg, 2012) English translation by an external party

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1 English translation by an external party HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 35/2014 > Chart of the Week: Resource productivity in Slovakia just below EU average > YoY decline in producer prices moderates in July once again 1,33 1,32 1, WEEK ON THE MARKETS 1,327 1,320 USD/EUR 1,319 1,318 1, ,70 137,13 JPY/EUR 137,15 136,88 136,68 GBP/EUR CHART OF THE WEEK LU NL UK ES IT FR BE MT DE HU EU GR SI SK HR AT CY DK SE LT CZ IE PT PL LV FI BG EE RS RO ,7 2,6 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,7 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,7 Note: at constant prices 3,5 3,1 2,9 Resources productivity (PPS/kg, 2012) > 2 1, ,5 <1 Source: UniCredit Bank based on data of Eurostat Change % 50% 150% IE ES SI HU CZ IT CY UK LV SK LU NL EU GR FR LT AT DE PT PL DK BG FI BE SE MT EE RO 00 0,795 0,790 27,90 27,80 27,70 0,2 00 0,796 0,796 0,794 0,795 CZK/EUR 27,84 27,84 27,83 27,78 27,75 Interest rates curves EURIBOR 7 0,29 4 0,19 0,27 8 0,17 7 1M 3M 6M 12M 34th week 35th week An efficient use of resources is one of the key priorities the long-term EU strategy - Europe 2020 is built on, when the support of a shift towards their more efficient use and low-carbon economy is one of the tools for achieving a sustainable growth in the EU. The current Chart of the Week brings an insight into the resource productivity, i.e. what GDP value (measured in purchasing power standards (PPS), i.e. adjusted for the various price levels in individual countries) is produced, on average, by 1 kg of consumed resources. While 1 kg of consumed resources in Romania, Serbia or Estonia produces only 0.6 GDP units measured in PPS, it is more than 3 PPS in Luxembourg or the Netherlands. There are several factors affecting the productivity of resources - from the weather conditions (it seems that the warm southern countries are more productive in use of resources than the cold northern ones, it is probably mainly owing to the lower consumption of resources for production of heat) up to the structure of economy and industry (for instance, services are usually less resourceintensive than industry). Similarly, economically wealthier countries of Western Europe usually report a higher productivity of resources than the economically poorer CEE countries. As for productivity of resources, Slovakia is just below the EU average; however, together with Hungary and Slovenia, it belongs to the CEE leaders. Productivity of resources is rising in the long run in Europe; compared to 2000, it declined only in two EU countries - Romania and Estonia. However, the efficiency in use of resources went up more considerably in many countries mainly following 2008, which is related also to the economic crisis, affecting mainly the resource-intensive industry. It is thus no surprise that the countries with the most significant increase in > 1

2 productivity of resources include Ireland, Spain, Slovenia, Italy or Cyprus. On the contrary, particularly the economies of the Czech Republic and Great Britain, and partially also of Hungary, Latvia and Slovakia, report a longer-term trend of growth of resource productivity, which was only increased by the crisis. It seems that in CEE countries it is a combination of upgrade of the economy, with foreign investments entailing new and more efficient (in terms of resources) technologies, and structural change in economy with a gradually increasing share of knowledge-intensive services with higher value added and lower resource consumption. In the case of Great Britain, it is likely that the latter - the structural change in economy - has had a decisive role, with Britain (London) becoming one of the most important global financial centres. (lk) ECONOMIC CALENDAR Week Indicator Period Producer prices (August 28) State budget (September 2) Retail sales GDP and its structure Real wage Employment by LFS Unemployment by LFS Market Consensus UniCredit Bank Estimate Reality July % yoy -2.8% yoy August mil. EUR - July - 3.0% yoy - Q2 2.5% yoy 2.5% yoy - Q2-2.1% yoy - Q2-0.8% yoy - Q2-13.7% -, Reuters, NBS, SOSR, UPSVaR, MinFin SR, UniCredit Bank Slovakia ECONOMY Dynamics of the yoy decline in producer prices moderates in July once again PRODUCER PRICES According to data of the Statistical Office of SR, domestic producer prices did not change in July, with dynamics of their yoy decline moderating again from -3.3% to - 2.8%. In July, the development of producer prices was affected mainly by the rising prices in sectors depending on the price of oil refinery and chemical industry; however, a more significant hike in prices was reported, for two months in a row, also by production machineries, resuming its yoy price increase after 4 months. Core producer prices (prices in manufacturing adjusted for the growth of oil and food prices calculation of UniCredit Bank) remained unchanged mom on average, with dynamics of their yoy decline moderating from -1.2% to -1.0%. Unlike the domestic prices, export producer prices kept falling in July by -0.3% mom; however, dynamics of their YoY decline moderated from -3.4% to -3.3% Chart 1: Producer prices - core and export (01/2008=100, SA) Core Export Source: UniCredit Bank based on data of SO SR > 2

3 The moderate mom increase in prices of agricultural commodities came to a halt in July. Their prices were falling mom once again after 3 months by -1.2% mom (seasonally adjusted; calculation of UniCredit Bank). The decline was visible mainly in the case of plant production and it was likely related to the arrival of new harvest. On the contrary, prices in animal production were slightly rising mom in July after adjustment for season (by 0.2%, calculation of UniCredit Bank). In a yoy comparison, the dynamics of decline in prices of agricultural commodities increased from -5.2% to -7.2%, when mainly the prices in plant production were falling (by -10.7% yoy); on the contrary, prices in animal production were slightly rising (by 0.7% yoy). 15% 10% Chart 2: Prices of vegetable and animal production (MoM, SA) crop production (3M MA) livestock production (3MA MA, 5 months lag, rx) 4% 3% 2% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% OUTLOOK In the second half of the year, producer prices should be supported by the lower 2013 comparative base; on the other hand, the increasing uncertainty on European markets related to the Ukrainian conflict might increase the pressure on producer margins once again. We assume that dynamics of the yoy decline in producer prices should be gradually moderated up to around -2.0% at the end of (lk) > 3

4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Slovakia F 2015F Real GDP grow th -4,9 4,4 3,0 1,8 0,9 3,0 3,5 GDP per capita Household consumption 0,1-0,7-0,5-0,2-0,1 2,5 2,5 Government consumption 6,1 1,0-4,3-1,1 1,4 0,2 Gross investments -31,5 2 9,5-16,0-5,1 4,3 4,4 Exports -16,3 16,0 12,2 9,9 4,5 7,8 7,2 Imports -18,9 14,9 9,7 3,3 2,9 8,1 6,9 Industrial Production -14,6 18,9 6,9 7,7 5,3 6,3 6,5 Construction -11,3-4,6-1,7-12,5-5,3 6,5 4,8 Retail Sales -10,3-2,2-2,8-1,0 0,1 3,1 3,3 CPI (average) 1,0 3,9 3,6 1,4 0,2 1,8 CPI (Dec.) 0,5 1,3 4,4 3,2 1,0 2,0 Real Estate inflation -11,1-3,9-3,0-1,1-0,9 0,2 2,0 Average Wage level Nominal Wage grow th 3,0 3,2 2,2 2,4 2,4 2,5 2,5 Real Wage grow th 1,4 2,3 - -1,2 1,0 2,3 0,7 Employment grow th (LFS) -2,8-2,2 1,5-1,0 0,7 Unemployment (average, LFS) 12,1 14,4 13,5 14,0 14,2 13,9 13,3 Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) -8,0-7,5-4,8-4,5-2,8-2,5-2,4 Public Debt (% of GDP) 35,6 41,0 43,7 52,7 55,4 56,5 56,9 Foreign Direct investment (EURbn) -0,2 1,0 1,0 1,5 1,8 2,0 2,0 ECB Refi rate (%, Dec.) 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,25 0,15 0,25 3M EURIBOR (%, Dec.) 0,7 1,0 1,2 0,2 0,3 0,2 3Y SK gov't bonds(%,dec.) 1,3 1,0 1,1 0,3 0,7 1,4 10Y SK gov't bonds(%,dec.) 3,4 2,9 4,8 2,2 2,6 2,8 3,6 Abroad F 2015F Eurozone GDP -4,1 1,7 1, ,5 1,7 German GDP -5,1 3,6 3,1 0,9 0,5 2,5 2,5 Czech R GDP -4,7 2,7 1,7-1,0-0,9 2,5 3,0 USA GDP -3,5 3,0 1,7 2,8 1,9 2,8 2,5 Eurozone Inflation 0,3 2,7 2,5 1,3 0,9 1,3 EUR/USD (average) 1,39 1,33 1,39 1,28 1,33 1,41 1,46 EUR/USD (Dec) 1,46 1,32 1,32 1,31 1,37 1,45 1,50 EUR/CZK (Dec) 26,4 25,1 25,8 25,1 27,5 27,2 26,5 EUR/HUF (Dec) ,6 304,2 285,8 300,2 308,0 315,0 EUR/PLN (Dec) 4,0 4,0 4,5 4,1 4,2 4,1 3,9 Source: NBS. SOSR. ÚPSVaR. MinFin SR. Eurostat. ECB Forecasts: UniCredit Bank Slovakia Slovakia. Eurozone. USA (EURIBOR. USDLIBOR. Brent. USD/EUR); UniCredit Group (CEE Economic Research. CIB) Eurozone. USA > 4

5 FOREIGN EXCHANGE 1,40 1,35 USD/EUR 0,90 5 GBP/EUR 1,30 0 1,25 0,75 JPY/EUR NOK/EUR 150 8, ,4 8, ,0 7, ,6 9,4 SEK/EUR 29,0 CZK/EUR 9,2 9,0 8,8 8,6 8,4 28,0 27,0 26,0 25,0 320 HUF/EUR 4,4 PLN/EUR 310 4,3 4, , ,0 MONEY MARKET 0,2 Interest rates curves EURIBOR 7 0,29 4 0,19 8 0,27 0,17 7 1M 3M 6M 12M 34th week 35th week > 5

6 FIXED INCOME 2,0 IRS EUR 2,0 State bonds yield curves - EUR 1,2 1,2 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y - 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 10Y 20Y Dow Jones Industrial S&P EQUITY EURO STOXX NIKKEI > 6

7 UniCredit Bank Weekly N.o.t.e.s has been prepared by Macroeconomic Analysis Ľubomír Koršňák, ; Lubomir.Korsnak@unicreditgroup.sk Jaroslav Habo, Large Corporates and Multinationals ; Jaroslav.Habo@unicreditgroup.sk Greta Slaninková, Real Estate Financing ; Greta.Slaninkova@unicreditgroup.sk Štefan Brychta, Corporate and Project Finance ; Stefan.Brychta@unicreditgroup.sk František Doležal, MID Corporates ; Frantisek.Dolezal@unicreditgroup.sk Tomáš Perďoch, Markets and Investment Banking ; Tomas.Perdoch@unicreditgroup.sk Marian Burian, Retail and SME ; Marian.Burian@unicreditgroup.sk Roman Hajduk, Private ; Roman.Hajduk@unicreditgroup.sk The present material was elaborated by UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, a.s. and can be reproduced only with its prior written consent. The document contains opinions of authors, which do not necessarily have to correspond with the opinion of UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, a.s.. Information and opinions contained herein were obtained from sources, which were deemed as reliable, however. UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, a.s. does not provide any guarantee for their correctness and completeness. UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, a.s. bears no responsibility for possible damage or other detriment, which can be suffered by third parties if they decide to use information contained herein. The present document cannot be deemed as a replacement for provision of individual investment consultancy. Investors have to make their own assessment of suitability and adequacy of investment in any financial instrument mentioned herein and that based on the substance of and risks connected with the relevant financial instrument, their own investment strategy and their own conditions and financial situation. The present document is not an investment recommendation or direct personal advice, neither this document nor any part hereof is a basis for conclusion of any contract or agreement upon obligation of whatsoever kind, and one cannot rely on the present document in connection with conclusion of any contract or agreement upon any obligation and it is not meant to be used as persuasion or recommendation for conclusion of any contract or agreement upon any obligation of any kind. We strongly recommend investors to contact their own investment consultants in order to receive the required explanations and individual investment consultancy. The present material is only for information purposes and (i) it does not represent any offer for sale or subscription or call to file proposals for purchase or subscription of any financial instruments or securities (ii) it does not represent whatsoever propagation thereof. Investment opportunities mentioned herein do not have to be suitable and adequate for certain particular investors, namely depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon of investment or in connection with their overall financial situation. Investments in financial instruments are connected with risk and value of the investment and revenue on the investment can grow or fall, and that also as a consequence of currency fluctuations. Performance in the past is not a reliable indicator of future performances. No predictions of performance in the future are a reliable indicator of performance in the future. One cannot rely on this document as on an explanation of all risks connected with investing in financial instruments, instruments of the money market, investment instruments or securities referred to herein. > 7