CHART OF THE WEEK WEEK ON THE MARKETS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 48/2013. English translation by an external party

Transcription

1 NL LV MT SK UK* BG HU EE LT PT DK FR DE PL ES AT SI RO FI SE BE CZ CY IT* HR RO SK PL* HU CZ* LT BG IT* BE* SE DE FI LV NL* DK SI EE* AT FR* GR HR UK* CY* ES MT* English translation by an external party HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK 48/2013 > Chart of the Week: Number of Overnight Stays of Tourists in Slovakia Rising > Producer Prices Keep Falling 1,37 1,36 1,35 WEEK ON THE MARKETS 1,351 1,355 USD/EUR 1,360 1,359 1,361 CHART OF THE WEEK 20% 15% 10% 5% 16% Nights spent - YoY growth (jan.-aug. 2013) 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% Net occupancy rate of bed-places (avg. jan.-aug. 2013) 1, JPY/EUR 139,21 139,06 137,57 138,43 137,34 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% % 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Sales of tourist accommodation establishments in Slovakia (seas. adj., 1H 2008=100) 0% -1%-1%-1%-1% -3% -5% -5% -21% GBP/EUR 0,840 0,835 0,830 0,825 27,6 27,4 27,2 27,0 0,6 0,2 0,838 0,835 0,834 0,832 0,833 CZK/EUR 27,39 27,33 27,34 27,35 27,27 Interest rates curves EURIBOR 0,50 9 0,33 0,23 0,32 0,15 0,22 0,13 1M 3M 6M 12M 47th week 48th week Note: * January to July 2013 Source: UniCredit Bank based on data of Eurostat and SO SR The current Chart of the Week brings insight into tourism and hotel industry in the first eight months of this year. The number of overnight stays of tourists in Slovakia increased by nearly 7% yoy. Following the Netherlands, Latvia and Malta, Slovakia has thus reported the fourth fastest growth within the EU. On the contrary, a significant drop in the number of overnight stays was reported by accommodation facilities in Croatia by as much as 21%, mainly in the peak summer tourist season in July and August - after accession to the EU and establishment of visas, mainly the inflow of tourists from Russia and Ukraine declined. However, a visible drop in the number of overnight stays (by 3-5%) was reported also by accommodation facilities in Italy, Cyprus or the neighbouring Czech Republic. A more significant increase in the number of visitors was recorded by Slovak accommodation facilities in particular early this year, i.e. during the winter tourist season. The number of overnight stays from January to April increased by as much as 11.8% yoy. However, there was some improvement also in the summer tourist season - the number of overnight stays from June to August increased by 3.6% yoy. Slovak hotels still have mainly domestic clients, who participated in the number of overnight stays with approximately 62%. Compared to the previous year, however, their share became slightly smaller, with the number of overnight stays of foreign visitors rising slightly faster (by 7.7%), in particular in the winter tourist season. The number of overnight stays of domestic visitors increased by 6.4% yoy. > 1

2 Even despite the yoy increase of the number of overnight stays, occupancy of Slovak accommodation facilities remains extremely low. For the first 8 months of the year, bed occupancy in Slovak accommodation facilities amounted to only 29%, being thus the lowest, following Romania, within the EU countries. Even during the peak tourist season in July and August, it was only up to 40%. Issues relating to the utilisation of accommodation facilities are reported also by the neighbouring V4 countries Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. On the contrary, the highest occupancy of accommodation facilities can be found in Malta, Spain and Cyprus. (lk) ECONOMIC CALENDAR Week Indicator Period Producer prices (November 28) State Budget (December 2) GDP flash Real wages Employment by LFS Unemployment by LFS Retail Sales Market Consensus UniCredit Bank Estimate Reality October % yoy -1.4% yoy November mil. EUR - 3Q 0.9% yoy 0.9% yoy - 3Q - 1.4% yoy - 3Q % yoy - 3Q % - October % yoy -, Reuters, NBS, SOSR, UPSVaR, MinFin SR, UniCredit Bank Slovakia ECONOMY Producer Prices Keep Falling PRODUCER PRICES According to data of the Statistical Office of SR, domestic producer prices went down by 0.3% mom in October, with their drop deepening compared to the same period of the previous year - from -0.8% to -1.4% - i.e. the highest yoy drop since mid Prices of oil products, reflecting the decline in prices of oil on global markets (the Brent oil price in EUR fell by -4.3% mom), supported once again the drop of producer prices in October. A significant decline was, however, recorded also by the core prices (prices in manufacturing adjusted for the growth of oil and food prices calculation of the UniCredit Bank) - they fell by -0.8% mom, being lower by as much as -2.3% yoy, reporting thus the highest yoy drop since April Export prices fell by -0.3% mom in October, with the dynamics of their yoy drop being unchanged (-2.6%) Chart 1: Producer prices - core and export (01/2008=100, SA) Core Export Source: UniCredit Bank based on data of SO SR The mom drop of prices of agricultural commodities came to a halt in October - after adjustment for seasonal deviations (calculation of UniCredit Bank based on the SO > 2

3 SR data), their prices grew by 2.3% mom, with the dynamics of their yoy drop moderating to -9.8% (-10.9% in September). In October, a mom rise was recorded mainly by prices in plant production (+3.1% mom - seasonally adjusted, calculation of UniCredit Bank); however, an increase was recorded also by prices in animal production (by 0.9% mom - seasonally adjusted, calculation of UniCredit Bank). 15,0% 1% Chart 2: Prices of vegetable and animal production (MoM, SA) crop production (3M MA) livestock production (3MA MA, 5 months lag, rx) 4% 3% 2% 5,0% % -5,0% -1% -15,0% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% OUTLOOK Only a gradual recovering of economies of the major business partners could be still creating pressure on the producer margins. Therefore, we expect that producer prices should decline yoy also in the next months. (lk) > 3

4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Slovakia F 2014F Real GDP grow th 5,8-4,9 4,4 3,2 2,0 1,0 2,5 GDP per capita Household consumption 6,0 0,1-0,8-0,5-0,6 0,3 0,9 Government consumption 6,1 6,1 1,0-4,3-0,6-1,5 Gross investments 4,7-31,5 19,9 10,2-10,3-7,8 5,3 Exports 3,1-16,3 16,0 12,7 8,6 4,4 5,3 Imports 3,1-18,9 14,9 10,1 2,8 1,7 4,9 Industrial Production 3,2-14,6 18,9 6,9 10,3 3,5 5,7 Construction 12,0-11,3-4,6-1,7-12,5-8,5 4,5 Retail Sales 9,1-10,3-2,2-2,8-1,0 0,5 2,1 CPI (average) 4,6 1,6 1,0 3,9 3,6 1,6 2,0 HICP (Dec.) 3,5 1,2 4,4 3,4 1,5 2,5 Real Estate inflation 22,1-11,1-3,9-3,0-1,1 0,2 1,5 Average Wage level Nominal Wage grow th 8,1 3,0 3,2 2,2 2,4 2,8 3,0 Real Wage grow th 3,5 1,4 2,3-1,6-1,2 1,1 1,1 Employment grow th 3,2-2,8-2,2 1,5 0,6-0,1 0,3 Unemployment (average) 9,6 12,1 14,4 13,5 14,0 14,3 14,2 Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) -2,1-8,0-7,7-5,1-4,5-3,0-2,9 Public Debt (% of GDP) 27,9 35,6 41,1 43,3 52,4 55,1 56,9 Foreign Direct investment (EURbn) 2,2-0,2 1,0 1,0 1,5 1,8 2,0 ECB Refi rate (%, Dec.) 2,50 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,25 0,25 3M EURIBOR (%, Dec.) 3,9 0,7 1,0 1,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 3Y SK gov't bonds(%,dec.) 4,1 1,3 1,0 1,1 0,3 0,7 1,8 10Y SK gov't bonds(%,dec.) 4,3 3,4 2,9 4,8 2,2 2,6 3,7 Abroad F 2014F Eurozone GDP 0,3-4,1 1,7 1,5-0,6-0,3 1,0 German GDP 0,8-5,1 3,6 3,1 0,9 0,6 1,5 Czech R GDP 2,5-4,7 2,7 1,7-1,0-0,9 2,0 USA GDP -0,3-3,5 3,0 1,7 2,8 1,6 2,5 Eurozone Inflation 3,3 0,3 1,6 2,7 2,5 1,5 1,6 EUR/USD (average) 1,46 1,39 1,33 1,39 1,28 1,31 1,36 EUR/USD (Dec) 1,33 1,46 1,32 1,32 1,31 1,35 1,38 EUR/CZK (Dec) 26,8 26,4 25,1 25,8 25,1 25,7 25,2 EUR/HUF (Dec) 264, ,6 304,2 285, ,0 EUR/PLN (Dec) 4,1 4,0 4,0 4,5 4,1 4,1 4,1 Source: NBS. SOSR. ÚPSVaR. MinFin SR. Eurostat. ECB Forecasts: UniCredit Bank Slovakia Slovakia. Eurozone. USA (EURIBOR. USDLIBOR. Brent. USD/EUR); UniCredit Group (CEE Economic Research. CIB) Eurozone. USA > 4

5 FOREIGN EXCHANGE 1,40 1,35 USD/EUR 0,90 0,85 GBP/EUR 1,30 0,80 1,25 1,20 0,75 JPY/EUR NOK/EUR 140 8, , ,0 7, , ,4 7,2 9,0 SEK/EUR 28,0 CZK/EUR 27,0 8,5 26,0 8,0 25,0 315 HUF/EUR 4,4 PLN/EUR , ,0 MONEY MARKET 0,6 0,2 Interest rates curves EURIBOR 0,50 0,33 9 0,23 0,15 0,32 0,22 0,13 1M 3M 6M 12M 47th week 48th week > 5

6 FIXED INCOME 2,8 2,4 IRS EUR 2,8 2,4 State bonds yield curves - EUR 2,0 2,0 1,6 1,6 1,2 1,2 0,8 0,8 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 10Y 20Y EQUITY Dow Jones Industrial S&P EURO STOXX NIKKEI > 6

7 UniCredit Bank Weekly N.o.t.e.s has been prepared by Macroeconomic Analysis Ľubomír Koršňák, ; Lubomir.Korsnak@unicreditgroup.sk Jaroslav Habo, Large Corporates and Multinationals ; Jaroslav.Habo@unicreditgroup.sk Greta Slaninková, Real Estate Financing ; Greta.Slaninkova@unicreditgroup.sk Štefan Brychta, Corporate and Project Finance ; Stefan.Brychta@unicreditgroup.sk František Doležal, MID Corporates ; Frantisek.Dolezal@unicreditgroup.sk Matej Letko, Financial Institutions ; Matej.Letko@unicreditgroup.sk Tomáš Perďoch, Markets and Investment Banking ; Tomas.Perdoch@unicreditgroup.sk Roland Viskupič, Global Transaction Banking ; Roland.Viskupic@unicreditgroup.sk Marian Burian, Retail and SME ; Marian.Burian@unicreditgroup.sk Roman Hajduk, Private ; Roman.Hajduk@unicreditgroup.sk The present material was elaborated by UniCredit Bank Slovakia a. s. and can be reproduced only with its prior written consent. The document contains opinions of authors, which do not necessarily have to correspond with the opinion of UniCredit Bank Slovakia a. s.. Information and opinions contained herein were obtained from sources, which were deemed as reliable, however. UniCredit Bank Slovakia a. s. does not provide any guarantee for their correctness and completeness. UniCredit Bank Slovakia a. s. bears no responsibility for possible damage or other detriment, which can be suffered by third parties if they decide to use information contained herein. The present document cannot be deemed as a replacement for provision of individual investment consultancy. Investors have to make their own assessment of suitability and adequacy of investment in any financial instrument mentioned herein and that based on the substance of and risks connected with the relevant financial instrument, their own investment strategy and their own conditions and financial situation. The present document is not an investment recommendation or direct personal advice, neither this document nor any part hereof is a basis for conclusion of any contract or agreement upon obligation of whatsoever kind, and one cannot rely on the present document in connection with conclusion of any contract or agreement upon any obligation and it is not meant to be used as persuasion or recommendation for conclusion of any contract or agreement upon any obligation of any kind. We strongly recommend investors to contact their own investment consultants in order to receive the required explanations and individual investment consultancy. The present material is only for information purposes and (i) it does not represent any offer for sale or subscription or call to file proposals for purchase or subscription of any financial instruments or securities (ii) it does not represent whatsoever propagation thereof. Investment opportunities mentioned herein do not have to be suitable and adequate for certain particular investors, namely depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon of investment or in connection with their overall financial situation. Investments in financial instruments are connected with risk and value of the investment and revenue on the investment can grow or fall, and that also as a consequence of currency fluctuations. Performance in the past is not a reliable indicator of future performances. No predictions of performance in the future are a reliable indicator of performance in the future. One cannot rely on this document as on an explanation of all risks connected with investing in financial instruments, instruments of the money market, investment instruments or securities referred to herein. > 7