Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum by high quality data sampling during the exploration and delineation

Transcription

1 Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum by high quality data sampling during the exploration and delineation Drill, core and test 6-8 years later: Harvest and learn until the reservoirs are produced Hans Chr Rønnevik Find and produce new oil: Existing and new play concepts Yearly balanced drilling portfolio Clustered portfolio : Efficient exploration Harvest on own breakthroughs Generic themes: Inverted highs Increased cost efficiency Continuous better practice Afford to have good ideas

2 Stability is obtained by will and skill to change; ie learning 1. Thoughts are instant, thinking takes time (self-referencing). 2. Facts are the experienced parts of the truth. 3. The truth must contain all facts, but not be constrained by lack of facts. 4. What is the likelihood of having experienced the truth based on facts? 5. The truth is so large that everybody can see a part of it but nobody the whole. 6. Keep on unfolding reality by interacting with it (David Bohm). - always - usually - general - by and large - more often than not - half the time - often - sometimes - occasionally - been known to happen - never - cannot be true Psuccess Value for tomorrow Limited value for tomorrow time Front Front' Growth' Activity/time

3 Exploration must be balanced and driven by skilled visions Fueled by breakthroughs and predicted to come to halt at frequent intervals True words are not beautiful, beautiful words are not true True words are not beautiful, beautiful words are not true New play types on NCS from 2003: Barents Sea: 6 North Sea: 9+ Norwegian S: 1 65Darcy NCS

4 Exploration wells versus operators and oil prices

5 Revitalization of NCS since Guidelines 5

6 Breakthroughs take time and then become instantly obvious to all 1.' 2.' 3.' 4.' Opening Strategic exploration Barents Sea project Increased Diversity

7 Probability evaluations are related to will, skill and context - always P suksess Probability assessments: - usually - general Possibilities are created by seeing new relations between the factors - by and large - more than not - half the time - often - sometimes - occasionally Mature J Sverdrup in 2007 post E Grieg: 0, E Grieg: 0,38 Why not a success? Stochastic modelling of independent parameters create a paradox: decreasing knowledge with increased diversity of data Modelling is a tool to be used in a context of correct geological conceptual thinking as input - has happened - never - impossible J Sverdrup pre E Grieg Understanding is related to the simplifications leading to numbers (exformation process)

8 New truths are created beyond 2 standard deviations Logic truths are tautological and ambiguous Alvheim Field: Gas satellites that was a major oil field Sold as gas satellites by NH and bought as such by Marathon And out of a concept; A FPSO delayed 1 year Marginal economy at 17 USD/bbl However: First cargo at 140 USD/bbl (2008) East Kameleon Heimdal field Alvheim STOOIP Boa Kameleon Kneler Gekko No extra wells Kneler well Boa well Kameleon-East well Hamsun Kobra 5 km Result AVO gas anomalies Screening model: Area * Oil column = Stooip 96 mill Sm 3 Distribution for Kneler Oil Column Alvheim Field: Cluster of 5 discoveries Heimdal

9 Knowleding is action and change Generation of consciousness (will): Possibility analysis are influenced by the time spirit New knowledge is created: beyond 2 standard deviations by breakthroughs by actions rather than predictions Concepts must contain, but not be constrained by the facts Efficient learning attack uncertainties, not certainties New awareness relates to diversity and not more of the same Modeling is no substitute for thinking Exploration reviews must be open for the implicit Data, tools and methods (skill): Geophysics is being developed towards broadband Drilling, coring and sidesteps are keys to increased knowledge Coring through hiatuses Continuous learning on all parameters during operations Continuous processing and analysis during drilling DST s to understand continuity Flexibility to adapt to reality during operations Data acquisition: Online diverse fact-based knowledging by the people that did the prognosis Acquire data when possible Full logging suite mobilized and use determined by well results Cost benefit analysis ; The value loss of doing nothing is unfolded in the long run: EG,JS,G and A could have been found years ago Basis for success : Fact based Learned internal to learn and partner dialogues Awareness to adapt of to the reality tacit during operations Expansion and before of context TD; and details Test Awareness and side-track of better? practice Active transfer of generic knowledge between core areas through internal dialogue

10 Exploration of inverted highs relate to focused petroleum migration Models will always be different from reality m MSL 1940 m MSL PL'338' PL265' PL'501' Basement(( 1900'm'MSL' 1950 m MSL PL'359' PL'410' 'm'MSL' Hypothesis: Saturated system with m oil leg Results: Under saturated and saturated oil

11 New reservoirs and hiatuses have been cored Edvard'Grieg' BCU Johan'Sverdrup' Base Volg MJU BJU 16/1%8&&&&&&&&16/1%13&&&&&&&&& 16/1%15& & Luno'2' BCU 16/2%11&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&16/3%5&&&&&&&16/3%7&&&&&&&&&&& Secured follow up acreage: Data strategy: Cored through hiatuses Tested for continuity Generic learning: Ongoing oil migration 16/4%6& Luno'2' 16/1%14& 16/1%12&

12 Late structure formation demonstrate late and ongoing oil filling N N N 16/1-8 16/2-6 16/1-8 16/2-6 Eocene structuration Late Miocene structuration BCU depth Map at 55 mill yrs Top Utsira Base Pleistocene/ Pliocene BCU depth Map at 27 mill yrs 5 5 BCU depth Map at 1.5 mill yrs Age 27 Depth (m) 80C Late charge

13 Define a broad context in time and space(2006) Top Utsira sand Pleistocene/Pliocene JS Bubble point bar Johan Sverdrup olje boble punkt; bar

14 Gas samples show ongoing migration Lok 2 Lok 1A & 1B Wetness versus d13c-methane Diagram Microbial Biogenic Gas 01V01 Taken from Luckg C1/C2-C M Lok 2 Lok 1A & 1B Lok 9 Thermal Thermogenic Gas Lok 9 10 i 01V01 x i Secondary Gas derived from biodegradation n g of oil Marine Terrestrial d13c-methane ( ) Asset 01V01 Lok 1A Lok 1B Lok 2 Lok 9 14

15 The Edvard Grieg inlier basin prospect was set in total context Petrel model of the Luno prospect in APA 2004 application BCU map in 16/1-8 discovery report in 2008

16 Coring unfolded the Edvard Grieg discovery in 16/1-8 he well was temporarily suspended for later successful test Chalk Logs read 40% shale in 100% sand Reservoir

17 Associative fact based communication 16/1-8 : Photos from core catcher from base of core 1 made a difference 16/3-8 : Photo from core chip

18 On line calibration of logs by mineralogy/chemistry XRD

19 he test of the second well; 16/1-10 was the key to E.G. PDO Model based on well data 2m good sand w/ K > 1000 md Conglomeratic sandstone 10-50mD Conglomerate 0-5 md 1B 1A 16/ /1-13 Porosity 30% Perm: 12 Darcy 3D OBC data Log-log plot of main buildup 16/1-23S Model based net on test 50m excellent sand w/ K>2000mD 1B 1A Measured bottom hole pressure Test results: Improved k*h away from well OBC seismic in line with predicted in the test 50 m 10D reservoir proved by well 16/1-13

20 Models must be based on geological concepts and laws 16/1,14( Porosity 30% Perm: 12 Darcy 16/1,A,11( 16/1,(23( 16/1118' Hutton: The present is the key to the past and the past the key to the present: 16/1-8 16/1-8 16/ / / /1-15 Walter s law within the constrains of Wheeler sequence diagrams Facies are not related to age(

21 Reality is deterministic 16/1-23S (planned) 16/ / /1-13 Producer 750 m 16/1-23S

22 Unfolding of reservoirs with cores in pilot production wells Porosity Core better continuity than logs 2. Core plugs: higher porosity than logs 22 Presentation name

23 Knowledging by active memories, right questions and answers Geophysics PDO Explore Produce Explore Explore Strategy Decision Explore Delineate Sedimentology 30/14/15 Paleo Processing 4 Production 2 Petrophysic Associative dialogue on maximum parameters Continuity and hands on experience from all phases and disciplines within 10 meters

24 Large fields need and can pay for step change technology Original Edvard Grieg Discovery 2D Benchmark Line Isometric Edvard Grieg Discovery BroadSeis IsoMetrix

25 The POS of the Avaldsnes prospect became 45% after 16/1-8 BCU map from 16/1-8 discovery report in 2008

26 The well 16/2-6 in 2010 was located to learn fast 16/2-6 Facies analogue to Johan Sverdrup Volgian sand North Bretagne, scale 1:2 2006' 19 m oil in 22 m Jurassic 1. The first 22 m reservoir cores defined the uncertainties that have been unfolded by delineation wells in All wells have given surprises and been necessary. The last two wells 16/3-8 and 16/2-19,9A changed the drainage strategy.

27 Deep mud invasion in most wells deteriorate log interpretation Oil saturation increase from ~0.7 to ~0.9 Invasion up to +5m Sh under estimation of 10% No mud cake No standard invasion profile Conductive minerals New procedures necessary in constructing CPI Multi Darcy sand do not have transition zone 40 m + above OWC 27 Guidelines

28 he Avaldsnes/JS discovery pre delineation (16/3-4 spud may 2011) Approx location 16/2-7 Approx location 16/3-4 A A

29 2. and 3. delineation wells 16/3-4 and 16/3-4A on JS: apid shallow marine local derived transgressive sand over weathered loose impermeable basement

30 Adapt to reality by online processing during drilling (4 th well in June 2011) Base Triassic

31 Local correction confirmed by sidetrack (6 th well in August 2011) Post depositional Lower Cretaceous faulting of epeirogenic Volgian and Lower Jurassic basins 16/2-7 and 7A 17 m to low On prog Base Volgian =BMJU Base Jurassic

32 DST s proved commerciality by PI and extent in the first 2 wells mill bbls PI: 460 Sm 3 /d/bar mill bbls PI: 810 Sm 3 /d/bar

33 Johan Sverdrup Field reserves: billion bbls oil 16/2-11 Volgian Pre Volgian 16/2-6 Discovery well in /2-6 Volgian Unfolded by big view, coring, advanced logging, testing, and 3D broadband seismic

34 Lundin wells: 1. Skalle: 3 gas discoveries 2. Juksa: Oil traces 3. Gohta: Oil discovery in Alta: Gohta 2: 2014 Partner wells: 1. Salinas: 2 gas discoveries 2. Langlitinden: small oil discovery

35 Loppa High: Strategic outlook area 1. Play concepts were created in the 70 s, tested in the 80 s and successfully proven from 2011 and onwards. 2. The exploration in the late 80 s was elephant hunting focused on size: To late the oil has leaked out under the ice. Only residual oil remains 3. The Barents Sea project recommended : 3D seismic and coring Large flexible licenses with right to follow up acreage 4. Increased diversity of experienced new companies was necessary ± Johan Castberg Lwr. Triassic gas mature Alta?? Upper Jurassic Salina Lower-Middle Triassic Gohta Upper Permian 20 km

36 Gas flare from sea bottom and anomalies (Flares demonstrate that there are something going on) Loppa High Alta Skrugard?? 7120/113' Gohta Salina Collecting carbonate crust Multibeam echosounder bathymetry Gas bubbles Shallow gas from seismic North Mapping with AUVs Bacterial mats ROV inspection and sampling Gas anomalies from deep to shallow

37 Old concepts in new 3D seismic; Conceptual Sequence models boundary maps are filtered information Stochastic Migration models in the piping not at the sequence boundary Quantification is simplification Deterministic models Knowledge is understanding the simplifications Skalle Juksa Snøhvit Skrugard/Havis Bjørnøya(( Basin( Salina Tromsø(Basin( Gohta Hammerfest( Basin(

38 Loppa High: Base Triassic erosional unconformity 0m s Postrift Carbonates Røye Folded basement Ørn Karst or sink hole (arrow) from the Mount fortet, Spitsbergen. The sink hole has been generated by carbonate dissolution during uplift and exposure to acid rain water. Photo: Lars Stemmerik Falk Dolinas Truncation A surface with A karstification Ugle Paleo dolinas and river systems Klappmyss Kobbe Røye/Isbjørn Undiff Basement Falk Ørn

39 Gohta discovery in 2013 Gotha well 2 Gotha well 1 Gohta1 Reinrose Recoverable resources after first well: million Sm 3 oil 8-15 billion Sm 3 gas 2014 activity : Gohta 2. well proved reservoir continuity Disappointing reservoir in the oil zone Good test in the gas zone (

40 Multi pore system in carbonates: Cores to lab 1 day after for ½ price of by boat 1 intra-, 2 intergranular, 3 vugs, 4 dolomitization and 5 fractures JS(analogue( Svalbard( ~0.35 g/cc 2290 TVDSS GOC 0.7 g/cc 2365 TVDSS OWC 1.11 g/cc OWC( CORE CORE DST OWC( Various measurements at same depth Radial flow Radial flow

41 South Senilix well Alta well: investigating potential up dip of Senilix North Top Permian Base Snadd MFS

42 Alta g/cc Probe in gas probe in oil Alta 1, Post drill GOC: 0.69 g/cc Probe in HC Saturn in water FWL 1.1 g/cc GOC Top L. Carnian Top Ladinian OWC Oil leg and a gas cap in carbonates

43 Carbonate reservoirs are heterogenic and factual Alta; data demanding Res static Res dynamic FMI Sonic Amplitude Sonic travel time Recoverable Resources Oil;13-50 mill Sm3 Gas; 5-17 billion Sm3 DST: Oil rate: ~518 Sm3/d (36/64" fixed choke) (1.4 bar draw down PI: 350) GOR: ~94 Sm3/Sm3 1. Multiple porosity systems: 5 interacting porosity systems observed 2. Mineralogy to understand depositional environment, porosity and resistivity calculations XRF, XRD, SEM used routinely

44 Bridging the knowledge gap since 2007 Continued the NPD mapping from by modern tools. Storage in Mareano to avoid black hole storage Facts&&closes&the&knowledge&gap&and&the&need&for&the&& precau4onary&principle&&&&&& 50 km Study area Study area

45 Pockmarks probably from early post glacial fluid flow 506 ms 507 ms 508 ms 509 ms 510 ms 511 ms Diameter 10-30m Depth 2-3m Sub bottom profiler Associative knowledging 1. Ice flow A 2. Ice berg scouring 3. De-glaciation fluid escape Multibeam bathymetry 0 ms A Diameter m Depth 10-15m B B Pock mark 10 ms Hugin Side scan sonar Sub bottom profiler Stone Hugin photo inside small pockmark Pipestone from center of large pockmark

46 Alta sea bed mapping Discovery well Alta 1 A Large Pockmarks Outline of Alta Discovery 0 ms A 200 m Diameter m B B 10 ms Carbonate pipestone from mega pockmark 46

47 Seabottom as it is Trawl marks 1m 1m HUGIN AUV pictures ROV

48 The benthos ecosystem 48 Guidelines

49 Find the way (see the possibilities) Awareness principles towards progress: 1. Thoughts are instant, thinking takes time (selfreferencing). 2. The truth is so large that everybody can see a part of it but nobody the whole 3. Expansion of details and scope 4. Facts are the experienced parts of the truth. 5. Keep on unfolding reality by interacting with it (David Bohm). 6. The holistic principle: See the forest in the seed 7. The incompleteness theorem; The truth can not be described in a finite net (Gødel) The god made truths are unfolded by diversity and not by majority or authority New found lands Lead from the deck Conclusions: The future is created by visions, actions and diversity in an ever changing context In unfolding reality the decision makers must be on deck Reality is deterministic not stochastic Actions are the basis for learning The same natural laws governs for all subsurface phases 49