Lundin Petroleum - Norway

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Lundin Petroleum - Norway"


1 1 Lundin Petroleum - Norway WF11073 Analyst Presentation 2 December 2010

2 2 Norway - Oil Industry Overview WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

3 3 NCS Development Trends - Last Years Changes in company structure Privatisation of Statoil Statoil/Hydro/Saga merger General Mega mergers acquisition Large amount of new companies, 50+ pre qualified Increased exploration activities Award in APA rounds Tax incentive All time high in 2009 Moderate success Production Exploration Wells Decline in production Too little focus on IOR (Åm report) High oil prices, lower gas prices Increased cost development Unit cost doubled the last 4-5 years New companies have the possibility to seek the best in new software PC based interpretation software from small independent suppliers A revolution in computing power enables in-house processing Web based publishing tools makes report and application work fast and flexible WF11158 p

4 4 Current Drilling Activities 9 Company activity (wells drilled) 2010 number of wells wells by oldtimers 27 wells by newcomers Det Norske Statoil Lundin Shell BG Centrica Petro Canada RWE-Dea Talisman Wintershall BP CoP Eni Esso Nexen Total Noreco Premier wells planned wells drilled WF11158 p

5 5 Development in Exploration and Delineation Drilling wells2010 wells2009 wells Statoil Eni Talisman Esso CoP Det Norske Shell Marathon BG BP DONG Hess Chevron Lundin RWE-Dea Total Centrica PetCan Wintershall Nexen GdF Noreco VNG wells wells2010 WF11158 p

6 6 Oil Discoveries above 40 MMbbl in Mature Areas NCS oil discoveries >40 MMbbl After year MMbbl 150 WF11158 p Avaldsnes Dagny/Ermintrude Luno Goliat deep Jordbær Maria Grevling Grosbeak Beta "6608/10-14" Draupne Astero Apollo Lundin Petroleum operated (Greater Luno Area)

7 7 New Players in the Last 10 Years Norwegian start-ups E&P (14) International E&P companies (ca 30) European Energy companies (8) WF11158 p

8 8 The Right Tool to do the Right Job A new company will not start with yesterday s IT toolbox and it s defenders A new company will start with a fresh, new, up to date IT toolbox PC based interpretation and data handling software from smaller and independent suppliers (Kingdom, ffa, Headwave, H&R, Petrel) A revolution in storage capacity and computing power makes in-house processing of large 3D multiuser datasets possible (Promax) Lundin Petroleum will stay in front to facilitate the most competitive technical and commercial solutions WF11158 p

9 9 Norwegian Taxation Taxes are profit related: Corporation Tax : 28% Special Petroleum Tax : 50% No Royalty, no Ring Fence 30% uplift against special tax over four years for new investments Interest costs can be deducted against tax New entrants without revenue receive 78% of unsuccessful exploration spend back in December the following year WF11158 p

10 10 Lundin Norway Organisation Managing Director Torstein Sanness Adm./Support Finance Manager Procurement Manager Commercial Manager Andreas Hildeng HSE Manager Exploration Manager Hans C. Ronnevik Drilling Manager Johan Bysveen Res. Development & Partner Operations Manager Tove Lie Projects Manager Bjorn Sund Total (2010) LNAS employees: >75 (excluding consultants) WF11165 p

11 11 Lundin Norway WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

12 12 Norway - Introduction 2P Reserves of 121 MMboe GCA + additional latest Luno 2P certified Reserves of 27 MMboe (net Lundin) 2 producing fields: Alvheim & Volund Current production 20,000 boepd 1 field under development (Gaupe) - first oil Q fields fully appraised - undergoing concept selection Nemo first oil 2012/13 Krabbe first oil 2013/14 Luno first oil 2014/15 Marihøne first oil 2013 Contingent resources of 44.6 MMboe No resources booked for Ragnarrock, Luno South, Avaldsnes & Apollo New discoveries: Avaldsnes & Apollo Unrisked prospective resources of ~1.2 billion boe 2 wells in 4Q wells in 2011 WF11057 p

13 13 Norway - Licence History Major position built through organic growth 45 Norway number of licences Number of licences per Company Lundin Norway ranked No.3 in terms of operated licences WF10757a Statoil Total Det Norske Exxon ENI Wintershall Noreco LUNDIN NORWAY ConocoPhillips Talisman GdF RWE Dea Dong Bayerngas E.ON Shell Spring VNG Dana BG Centrica Faroe HESS BP Marathon Bridge Petro-Canada OMV Rocksource

14 14 Norway - 3 Key Areas Greater Alvheim Area Barents Sea Area Greater Luno Area Barents Sea Area Greater Alvheim Area Greater Luno Area WF10757b 03.10

15 15 Norway Reserves & Contingent Resources Hydrocarbon Volume [MMboe] Norway Reserves and Contingent Resources CR 2P 2010 CR: Luno South discovery, Ragnarrock, Avaldsnes and Apollo not yet included 2P reserves increased year by year from 36 MMboe (2005) to 121 MMboe (2010) +336% in 6 years * * Doesn t include Luno latest additional certified 2P reserve increase from 95MMboe to 149 MMboe gross WF10757c p

16 16 Norway Prospective Resources Hydrocarbon Volume [mmboe] 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Norway Prospective Resources F/O to Statoil + new discoveries & unsuccessful wells WF10757c p

17 17 Norway - Proven Track Record Exploration capex Development capex People = key Proven basin & petroleum system Close to infrastructure Leading edge technology with emphasis on new 3D seismic acquisition Over 7,115 km2 acquired & 48,135 km2 of 3D seismic reprocessed since MUSD Forecast MUSD Exploration Wells Drilled up to Nov Commercial Discoveries up to Nov Cumulative E&A Spend up to Oct 2010, MMUSD Finding Cost USD/boe Finding Cost USD/boe - post tax Success Rate (commercial successes) (3) (1) Includes USD 130 Million investment in 3D Seismic, YTD 2010 spend estimated (2) Mid range estimate assumed for Avaldsnes & Apollo (3) Does not include Luno South % (1) (2) (2) Volund, Luno, Gaupe, Marihøne, Viper, Avaldsnes, Apollo WF10757 p

18 18 Norway Production Growth Avaldsnes/Apollo boepd Volund Onstream Production Growth from Norway Development Projects Gaupe Onstream Nemo Onstream Krabbe Onstream Marihøne Onstream Luno Onstream increase in production 14,300 17,900 20,000 16,800-18,300 WF10925 p Q1 Q2 Q3 Actual Forecast /2015

19 19 Norway - Production WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

20 SKENE P1283 PL340 P090 PL088 BS PL150 PL088 PL088 BS PL203 PL413 PL036C 20 Norway - Greater Alvheim Area LundinPetroleum Operator LundinPetroleum Partner PL088 9/14a-6 Alvheim Field Lundin Petroleum 15% Marathon 65% (operator), ConocoPhillips 20% Gross ultimate recovery 246 MMboe Volund Field Lundin Petroleum 35% Marathon 65% (operator) Gross ultimate recovery 49 MMboe 0 KM 4 Peik UK 9/15a-2 PEIK 24/6-1 24/6-3 9/15b-4 9/15b-3 24/ PL150 PL505BS PL203 PL340 PL088 bs PL036C VOLUND ALVHEIM 9/14b-2B 9/ /7-5 Volund 9/15a-1 Alvheim 24/9-5 25/7-6 24/9-6 Norway 25/ /4-8 25/4-3 PL547S GEKKO HEIMDAL GAMMA 24/9-4 PL505 Marihøne A Discovery PL340BS WF10819 p

21 21 Norway - 2P Production Alvheim & Volund 24,000 22,000 20,000 Norway Production Volund Alvheim 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 18,000 Quartly Production Rate [boe/d] 16,000 14,000 12,000 1,0000 8,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 1,0000 8,000 Quartly Production Rate [boe/d] 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 WF11043 p

22 22 Norway - Development WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

23 23 Norway Development Projects - Summary Field Net Reserves MMboe Production (1) boe/day First Oil date Nemo /13 Marihone 3 TBA 2013 Krabbe /14 Gaupe (Pi) Luno 75 > /15 Total (1) Lundin Initial Production WF10762 p

24 24 Norway - Luno Project WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

25 25 Greater Luno Area - Luno Field Development 2P reserves increase Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator) Wintershall 30%, RWE 20% Certified 2P reserves increased from 95 MMboe to 149 MMboe gross Plateau production forecast >60,000 boepd gross Good progress with development planning Subsurface work completed Concept selection in late 2010 Submission of PDO in 2011 First oil 2014/ UK Peik field Alvheim field Volund field PL340 PL340BS PL150 Apollo discovery Luno Field PL203 PL505BS PL547S PL505 PL304 PL544 PL036c PL338 PL359 PL PL167 PL167B PL265 PL410 PL412 PL546 PL Avaldsnes discovery 0017 PL409 Norway WF Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner 0 KM 20

26 26 Greater Luno Area - Luno Development Options Oil export to Grane Gas export to Sleipner, 40km PDO Submission 2011 First Oil 2014/15 Luno WF10766 p

27 Greater Luno Area Luno Well Development Outline (9OP + 3WI) Oil Producer 16/1-13 Oil Producer 16/ SW 1.0 Water Injector /1-8 R Luno Field WF10766 p

28 28 Norway - Exploration WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

29 29 Lundin Norway Exploration Strategy Lundin strategy: Cash flow protected organic growth Leverage on what we know and develop new concepts Utilise synergy in portfolio in relation to improved exploration and development Efficient exploration through early drilling decisions and continuous drilling activity Tailor yearly balanced drilling portfolio in relation to Standalone Frontier exploration Growth Exploration Mature tie in exploration Maintain production from existing and emerging developments (Alvheim and Volund) Data driven subsurface understanding, with a clear appreciation of the limitations of Data, Tools, Methods and Theories at any time Subsurface work flow: Data integration platform is Petrel, Kingdom, ffa, Easy DC, LNAS model Multicube 3D data and in-house processing In house formation evaluation analysis In house core description and paleofacies analysis Integrate at highest possible entropy level for a max of parameters People: Skilled specialists and interpreters in an open co-creation mode WF11159 p

30 30 Norway - Prospective Resource 1.2 billion boe of unrisked prospective resources 36 exploration licences Seismic new coverage 7,115 km 2 of 3D 3 rigs on hire Transocean Winner Songa Dee Bredford Dolphin 2 wells remaining to be drilled or ongoing in 2010 Rig secured for all and targeting >120 MMboe (net Lundin Petroleum) 9 wells estimated in 2011 WF11057 p

31 31 Exploration - Norway - 3 Key Areas Greater Alvheim Area Barents Sea Area Greater Luno Area Barents Sea Area Greater Alvheim Area Greater Luno Area WF10757b 03.10

32 32 Exploration - Greater Luno Area Exploration targets in GLA/GAA: Explore inlier basins and fractured porous basement shallower than 1940m MSL on the high and all structural and stratigraphic traps fringing the high in the west Primarily exploration for light oil Exploration strategy: Have been our own fast follower Focus on exploration and delineation of early stand alone prospects within each JV Define and then realize prospects with tie in potential that can influence development solutions as in PL 338 Utilize at any time the impact of new geological and geophysical data on the totality Enable parallel exploration and delineation within the various licenses Retain all prolific acreage as required in the APA regime Create a common purpose for all stakeholders PURPOSE: Create values Intellect * Capital * Land WILL: Why? Conceptual knowledge PROCESS: Interlinking of multiple activities to discrete events SKILL: How? Operational knowledge Visions Relations Concepts Acreage Resources Reserves Production Source: EFQM WF11159 p

33 33 New 3D Seismic Techniques Introduced in GLA LN1002 LN0902 LN0803 LN10M06 WF11159 p

34 34 Southern Utsira High at BCU and Basement Levels WF11159 p

35 35 Exploration - Greater Luno Area 16/2-6 WF11159 p

36 36 Exploration - Greater Luno Area 16/2-6 Avaldsnes disc WF11159 p

37 37 Greater Luno Area - Further Exploration Potential PL501 (40%) Avaldsnes discovery contingent resources estimates MMboe gross 2 appraisal wells to be drilled in 2011 PL 338 (50%) Apollo discovery contingent resources estimate MMboe gross Tellus prospect Prospective resources 40 MMboe gross unrisked 1 exploration well in 2011 PL 409 (70%) Norall exploration well to be drilled end 2010 prospective resources 27 MMboe gross unrisked PL 265 (10%) 1 appraisal + 1 exploration well to be drilled in 2011 (Statoil) - Avaldsnes West and Aldous North prospect UK 0015 SLEIPNER WEST SLEIPNER EAST PL304 Apollo Discovery 16/1-14 Luno and Luno South discoveries Norway PL359 PL544 PL338 PL Norall 27 MMboe Tellus Ragnarrock PL410 PL546 Torvastad Aldous North PL265 PL502 0 KM 20 16/2-6 PL501 Avaldsnes discovery Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner 2 exploration wells and 3 appraisal wells to be drilled in 2011 WF10988 p

38 38 Greater Luno Area - Further Upside - Exploration Oil Gas Prospect Lead PL304 Apollo discovery Contingent gross: MMboe Luno discovery Revised certified 2P reserves 149 MMboe PDO submission 2011 Draupne Tellus Prospect PR unrisked gross: 40 MMboe CoS: 40% Drilling: Jan 2011 PL546 Torvastad Prospect 0 KM 20 PL501 Aldous North Prospect Avaldsnes West 16/2-6 PL359 Numerous Pre and Post Cretaceous prospects Luno South Ragnarrock PL338 PL410 PL265 PL502 Avaldsnes discovery Contingent resource estimate MMboe (on block). Appraisal drilling to start in March 2011 PL PL544 Luno 3 Prospect 0016 PL410 Two Pre Cretaceous Leads Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner WF11111 p

39 39 Avaldsnes Discovery PL546 PL501 Resources estimate on block at MMboe Geological model assumes no Jurassic reservoir in white area 16/2-6 (33m Jurassic Gross Thickness) PL265 Triassic pinchout? Rotliegendes potential 16/3-2 (30m Jurassic Gross Thickness) OWC 1922 mss PL410 WF11111 p

40 40 Avaldsnes Discovery - Further Upside Torvastad prospect PL546 PL501 Aldous North prospect Avaldsnes West (PL265) Current model shows Jurassic sand reservoir thickness increasing towards fault PL265 PL410 16/2-6 (33m Jurassic Gross Thickness) Appraisal well Avaldsnes post-drill Contingent resource estimate MMboe (on block) Appraisal well Triassic pinchout? Rotliegendes potential 16/3-2 (30m Jurassic Gross Thickness) OWC 1922 mss Additional potential in Avaldsnes West located in PL265 Avaldsnes drilling to commence in March 2011 with two appraisal wells. Avaldsnes West and Aldous North exploration wells in Located in PL265 Additional prospectivity in Torvastad prospect in PL501 WF11111 p

41 41 Avaldsnes Top Jurassic sand map (m) Approx Location 16/2-7 Approx Location 16/3-4 A A WF11159 p

42 42 Greater Luno Area - Apollo Discovery /1-6 S Kilometers PL Lundin Petroleum 50% operator Wintershall 30%, RWE 20% 16/1-7 16/1-11 Draupne 16/1-9 16/1-2 Avaldsnes Apollo discovery Lower Cretaceous/Upper Jurassic Discovery Paleocene Discovery Apollo, Lower Cretaceous Discovery 16/1-14 Tellus 16/2-1 16/2-3 Size MMboe gross (PL338) Apollo, Paleocene Discovery 16/ / /1-4 16/1-8 Luno Ragnarrock 16/2-5 16/1-5 Luno South 16/1-12 Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner WF10988 p

43 43 Greater Luno Area - Apollo Discovery Dip line showing Palaeocene and Jurassic/Cretaceous discoveries Proven Paleocene owc Proven Cret owc Flatspot owc Crossline showing up dip Palaeocene pot WF11159 p

44 44 Other Areas - PL519 Area 0 5 KM 20 Lundin Petroleum Operator Oil Field Gas Field PL519 Lundin Petroleum 40% (operator) Spring Energy 20%, Bayerngas 20%, Noreco 20% Work commitment: - 1 firm well within first 3 years, TD 100m into Teist Fm or at 3500m Albert prospect to be drilled in PL519 Albert Prospect PL555 Norway PL555 Lundin Petroleum 60% (operator) Bayerngas 40% Work commitment: - 3D re-processing and G&G studies 210 UK WF11046 p

45 45 PL Albert Prospect Planned well NW SE WF

46 46 Norway - Barents Sea WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

47 47 Regional Barents Sea with New Border Line New border (red line) Lundin core area WF11164 p

48 48 Barents Sea Shtokman Ververis Obelix? Obesum Arenaria Nucula Lundin Licence area Snøhvit Goliat Oil & Gas Gas Oil WF10825 p

49 49 Distribution of oil prone source rocks WF11164 p

50 WF9900 p Barents Sea - Drilling to Commence in Numerous multi-stacked prospects matured in the portfolio PL438 Lundin Petroleum 25% (operator) 3 prospects 7317 Skalle to be drilled in Q1 2011, 250 MMboe gross prospect size in multiple targets PL533 Lundin Petroleum 20% Rauto & Pulk prospects Pulk 500 MMboe gross prospect size in multiple targets likely to be drilled in 2011 PL490 Lundin Petroleum 30% (operator) Juksa and Snurrevad prospects likely drilling in MMboe gross prospect size Gohta Lavvo Barents Sea PL533 PL438 ICELAND PL PL PL N PL N Snoehvit Area E Rauto Pulk (Salina) PL PL PL490 Goliath 7123 SWEDEN Bieksu & Geres 7227 Skalle PL438 Juksa Snurrevad 7124 Rein 7125 Hammerfest 21 E Lundin Norway Licences Operated Non-Operated 0 KM Lead Prospect Oil field Gas field Licenced Area (NPD) KM 80 63

51 51 Geological play types NW PL533 PL492 PL438 PL490 Pleistocene 7120/1-1R Lavvo Skalle 7120/2-1 SE Shallow gas anomalies Shallow gas anomalies Numerous structural and stratigraphic play types 1000 Paleocene Cretaceous? Late Triassic Early Jurassic Paleocene Potential for stacked reservoirs, as seen at other discoveries in the region 2000 Lower to Middle Triassic Upper Paleozoic Carbonates Cretaceous Oil and gas potential in proven good quality reservoirs 3000 Pre Carboniferous Possible Flat Spot NW 22 E PL N PL492 Lavvo Pulk X-Section Rein 21 E 0 KM N PL438 Bright Spot PL563 Skalle PL490 SE WF10980 p

52 52 PL438 Skalle Skalle well will be drilled with the Polar Pioneer rig spudded approx. March 2011 WF11159 p

53 53 PL533 Pulk/Salinas Pulk well will be drilled with Scarabeo 8 tentatively July 2011 WF11159 p

54 54 Triassic channels mapped in by 3D and observed in field Analogue channel seen from outcrop at Edgeøya, Spitsbergen PL490 Well with oil shows outside closure Gohta Prospect Middle Triassic channel anomaly WF11164 p

55 55 Norway - Drilling Schedule WF11073 Analyst Presentation - 2 December 2010

56 56 Norway Targeted Prospective Resources Drilling Schedule 1 operated non operated Licence - Prospect Operator LUPE% NURPR CoS% PL501 - Avaldsnes Lundin (1) NRPR (2) Q Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Discovery 2 PL338 - Apollo Lundin Discovery PL400 - Barchan PL409 - Norall PL340 - Caterpillar Lundin Lundin Marathon PL505 - Earb South Marathon PL338 - Tellus PL501 - Avaldsnes 1 st Appraisal PL501 - Avaldsnes 2 nd Appraisal Lundin Lundin Lundin PL265 - Avaldsnes West PL265 - Aldous North PL438 - Skalle PL533 - Pulk PL519 - Albert Statoil TBA Statoil TBA Lundin ENI (3) Lundin (1) Net Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMboe) (2) Net Risked Prospective Resources (MMboe) (3) Propsect split between PL533 (20% equity) and PL 492 (30% equity) WF11117 p