CCS Risk Analysis. Vanessa Nuñez Lopez. CEPAC - CSLF Capacity Building Workshop Porto Alegre, Brazil July 30 Aug 3, 2012

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1 CCS Risk Analysis Vanessa Nuñez Lopez CEPAC - CSLF Capacity Building Workshop Porto Alegre, Brazil July 30 Aug 3, 2012

2 Leucadia Lake Charles Hastings Field Air Products Port Arthur

3 West Hastings MVA area

4 CCS Environment Complexity EOR Projects are more complex: old field with many P&A wells, but more data available

5 Major Sources of Uncertainty I. Vertical migration through wells II. Vertical migration through faults III. Out of pattern migration Monitoring Elements Soil Gas Shallow AZMI P Deep AZMI P In-zone

6 Injection Zone Quick-look Modeling. Wide range of uncertainties for scenario creation Identification of influential parameters on CO 2 flood indicators Deterministic Modeling. Possible Scenarios Plume Size Pressure Elevations Likely Scenarios Good monitoring program needs to be designed to test areas of significant uncertainly, but not all areas of uncertainty, only the areas of relevant significant uncertainties with the potential to generate negative outcomes. Our approach is to create a flaw In our model Outliers Outliers Negative Outcome

7 Deep & Shallow AZMIs In-zone Soil Gas Shallow AZMI Deep AZMI P P Obvious deep AZMI target is thick interval of sandstones at base of Miocene for early detection We are currently in the shallow AZMI selection:, we are mapping sand-body geometry using geophysical logs Why two AZMIs? To test the concept of early but complex detection vs. late but more reliable detection

8 Shallow AZMI Selection (thin, quiet, and continuous sand) Hydrologic testing (also known as aquifer pumping tests) will be conducted in candidate formations in which monitoring wells may be located.

9 Fault Monitoring (Final part of documenting conformance DOE and public concerns) 1.Cross-fault monitoring Propose target pressure measurements in locations across fault 2 2.Up-fault monitoring Thermal approach

10 Is a simple risk assessment approach for evaluating CO2 and brine leakage risk at geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites Curtis Oldenburg, LBNL Steve Bryant, UT-PGE JP Nicot, UT-BEG

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18 Application of the Certification Framework to the SECARB Cranfield Site

19 Cretaceous Paleoc. Eocene Oligoc. & > Simplified hydrostratigraphic column with water quality 1000ft ~100ft Recent formations Catahoula Sands ~750ft Jackson-Vicksburg Approximate TDS (mg/l) <1,000 <10,000 The large depth (~10,000 ft, 3,050 m) of the Tuscaloosa Formation reservoir, presence of extensive thick marine mudstone confining zone, and well-known geology, among other factors, tend to minimize the likelihood of leakage. 2000ft 3000ft 4000ft 5000ft 6000ft ~2300ft ~4000ft Cockfield Cook Mountain Sparta/Memphis Cane River Carrizo Wilcox (~70% sands) Mostly aquifer Mostly aquitard <50,000 <150, ft ~7500ft Midway Claystones 8000ft ~8600ft >200,000 Austin and other Chalk 9000ft Eagle Ford ~9,700ft Upper Tuscaloosa <200,000 10,000ft ~10,200ft Lower Tuscaloosa

20 On the other hand, a number of plugged and abandoned (P&A) wells provides potential flow paths for leakage upward to potable aquifers and potentially to the ground surface Location of wells with CBL data and quality of each CBL log

21 Cross-section illustrating cemented intervals of each well with a CBL log at the study site

22 Step 1: Compute pressure at P&A wells through time at older P&A wells determined to be the most likely leakage pathways 3-D reservoir simulations undertaken using CMG- GEM. Static model created based on seismic data and well logs using the Petrel software. To account for lack of interwell data and for rock heterogeneity, we generated 5 realizations of the permeability and porosity fields.

23 Excess Pressure (psi) Realz. 1 Realz. 2 Realz. 3 Realz. 4 Realz. 5 We modeled 5 years of injection at a rate of 1 Mt/yr. Injection rates were based on a simplified schedule of the actual measured rates and then projections Cranfield Unit 7 Cranfield Unit 4 Vernon Johnson 1 Armstrong 4 Armstrong 2 R G CALCOTE 1 H H CROSBY ETAL 1 CO 2 and over-pressured brine intersect P&A wells for all 5 realizations. Pressure rise ranges from <400 to >1,500 psi depending on location of the P&A wells and permeability field realization as seen in the graph. These simulated pressures represent an upper bound relative to well leakage.

24 Depth (m) Step 2: A simple 1D single-phase model for flow up a P&A well with degraded cement or poor cement bond was developed: Mass Flux (kg/m 2 /s) Middle Tuscaloosa Wilcox Midway Claystones Austin Chalk Eagle Ford Lower Tuscaloosa Results for flow in P&A wells at the study site Eutaw Upper Tuscaloosa Base Case Sensitivity Case 1 Sensitivity Case 2 Lower Tuscaloosa Middle Tuscaloosa Upper Tuscaloosa Eutaw Eagle Ford Austin Chalk Midway Claystones - For CO 2, the buoyancy effect allows a residual leakage flux to continue up the well resulting in the possibility of nonnegligible CO2 leakage fluxes for wells with poor quality cement. - For brine, the lack of buoyancy renders brine leakage fluxes negligible as overpressure dissipates into the upper Tuscaloosa and Wilcox.

25 Cumulative Probability Results Estimates of properties for these 17 wells suggest that 2 wells could convey a total 1.8 ton/yr of CO. Overall, the well leakage rate is ~ % of the annual injection rate. Given the large volumes of the potable aquifers and dissipative processes present above ground, fluxes of CO 2 of this magnitude are expected to have negligible impact on all the CF compartments. CO 2 Mass Flow Rate Distribution CO 2 mass leakage rate distribution for wells without 100% Cement Bond CO 2 Mass Leakage Rate (tonnes/yr)

26 Questions?

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