Market report Germany residential investment market February 2016

Transcription

1 Savills World Research Germany Investment Market report Germany residential investment market Summary Residential investment market at a glance Germany's population has been growing more strongly than expected, even before the influx of refugees. Consequently, in the core growth areas in particular, there are now scarcely any apartments available and the low completion figures mean that a continued shortage is certain. In addition to the favourable fundamental data, the German residential market is also characterised by very high liquidity. When low bond yields are added to the equation, residential property therefore remains a sensible cornerstone of portfolios, particularly for risk-averse investors. However, the search for suitable supply is becoming increasingly challenging. Initial yields are at record lows and there are significantly more purchasers than vendors. The increasing new-build activity and growing willingness to sell are likely to help in relieving the strain. Apartment rents have also risen at an above-average rate in recent years as a result. Asking rents across Germany as a whole have risen by 6.5% since Cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants have even witnessed double-digit growth in many cases. The time for counter-cyclical buyers in Germany is over. However, income-oriented investors still find favourable conditions. Karsten Nemecek, Savills Corporate Finance - Valuation savills.de/research 01

2 Germany is growing and the housing shortage is intensifying Germany is growing. Between 2011 and 2015, the number of people living in Germany rose by significantly more than a million. This trend is surprising insofar as relevant projections in 2010 assumed a population decline of several hundred thousand people. The consequences for the German housing market are now all the more serious since significantly fewer apartments were built in recent years than was necessary to satisfy demand. In the major German cities in particular, there are now scarcely any available apartments, with vacancy rates in many cities at 2% or lower at the end of Around half of the population growth in Germany in recent years has been attributable to 14 cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. Between 2012 and 2014, the population in these cities rose by more than 460,000 while only 100,000 apartments were built during the same period (Graph 1). Rents are rising, particularly in the major cities Consequently, the average asking rents for apartments in most cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants have witnessed above-average and, in many cases, double-digit growth since The equivalent figure for Germany as a whole stands at 6.5%. The conditions for investors are favourable, particularly since the population growth in general and the influx into the major cities in particular will continue for a number of years and the number of building permits remains significantly short of projected requirements. It is, therefore, expected that apartment rents in such cities will continue to show aboveaverage growth over the coming years. The only element of uncertainty here is the rental cap (Mietpreisbremse) that has now been introduced in many cities, although it remains to be seen what real impact this may have and whether it will actually slow rental growth. The facts remains that apartment completions across the country remain significantly lower than required to satisfy demand. Around 220,000 apartments were completed in 2014 compared with an annual new-build requirement of 350,000 to 400,000 apartments according to current projections. On that basis, the housing shortage is certain to become even more acute over the coming years and rents will continue to rise, unless this is curtailed by regulatory measures. Small apartments will be particularly affected by these developments since, although the average household size has been in decline for decades, new apartments have become larger year on year. However, building permits are showing a trend reversal in favour of smaller apartment sizes (Graph 2 and commentary box "Lack of small apartments"). German residential investment market is among the most liquid in the world In view of the extremely attractive fundamental data and favourable (growth) prospects from an investor's perspective, it is almost logical that the German residential market has also attracted large amounts of international capital in recent years. A total of almost 70bn was invested between 2010 and 2015, with Germany attracting around half of the capital invested in European residential property during this period (Graph 3). The USA is the only country in the world with a higher transaction volume in the residential sector. Thus, not only does the German residential market stand out with attractive and stable conditions, it is simultaneously one of the most liquid residential investment markets in the world. When the historically low bond yields are added to the equation, the German residential market therefore remains a sensible cornerstone of portfolios, particularly for risk-averse investors. Consequently, two investor groups, namely property companies and special funds, have been the principal net investors in the market over the last five years (Graph 4). Both are backed by money from insurance companies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other investors with a similar risk profile. Since these investors also make their allocation decisions based upon the relative attractiveness of property compared with other asset classes, and primarily bonds, the yield differential between residential property and long-term bonds is a principal allocation criterion. The fact that this yield differential has been extremely high for several years and that residential property produces very high (initial) yields compared with bonds is likely to have contributed significantly graph 1 Housing supply and demand in cities with 500,000+ inhabitants 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt / * Census, no data for 2011 graph 2 Size of households and flats developed contrary Population change * Source: Bulwiengesa, Statistisches Bundesamt graph 3 Residential transaction volume in Germany and Europe in comparison* bn Source: RCA, Savills / * past 12 months rolling Completed flats persons per household (left axis) average size of flat -completions (right axis) average size of flat -perrmissions (right axis) Europe Germany Share of Germany 0 0% 07Q4 08Q4 09Q4 10Q4 11Q4 12Q4 13Q4 14Q4 15Q sq m 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% savills.de/research 02

3 to these investors' decisions to increase allocations to residential property within their portfolios. Since this environment is not expected to change in the current year or next year in view of continued expansionary monetary policy, at least from the European Central Bank, demand for residential property in Germany will remain high. Surplus demand and low interest rates are driving yields to record lows This substantial demand is faced with a limited supply. In recent years, there has been more capital in the market than it has been ultimately possible to invest. This surplus demand has led prices to grow at a faster rate than rents, causing a corresponding hardening in initial yields (Graph 5). This yield compression is highly likely to continue this year in view of the sustained high risk premium compared with bonds, albeit at a slower pace. For while the European Central Bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in the short term, the US Federal Reserve commenced its interest rate hike path at the end of last year. Even if the Federal Reserve is likely to be as hesitant in continuing this path at it was in introducing it, the familiar parameters of recent years have nevertheless changed. From now on, the question at central bank meetings will no longer be whether interest rates should be lowered or not, but whether they should be raised. This is one reason why an increase in US government bond yields is now more probable, which would make these securities at least potentially a legitimate option for investors once again. Everybody wants to buy; scarcely anybody is selling Although the looming rise in bond yields should dampen demand for residential property in the medium to long term, the significant surplus demand will persist at least for the current year. This is underlined by the fact that the residential supply actually available to direct investors has diminished appreciably in recent years. The five largest residential property companies alone, namely Vonovia, Deutsche Wohnen, LEG Immobilien, TAG Immobilien and Buwog, now own almost three quarters of a million apartments in Germany, which is almost one third of the entire private sector apartment stock in professional ownership. All five companies are pursuing a growth strategy and, therefore, primarily act on the purchaser side. Disposals only occur in the course of portfolio optimisation and corporate acquisitions. Even the public sector, which owns approximately 2.5 million apartments, has no (political) interest in disposing of its apartment stock at a time when the housing shortage is becoming increasingly acute. On the contrary, in cities such as Berlin, municipal housing companies are set to increase their holdings to satisfy the rising demand. Taking apartments in private and co-operative ownership out of the equation leaves a maximum of 2 million apartments that constitute suitable supply for institutional investors (Graph 6). By way of reference, in the five years between 2011 and 2015, almost 1.1 million apartments were purchased by institutional investors. Disposals may be sensible for those that bought in recent years A not insignificant reason why there will still be purchase opportunities for investors going forward is that prices have risen so sharply in recent years. This will enable investors that bought early in the cycle to bank significant capital gains. Between 2010 and 2015, the average market price of an apartment building across the top seven cities rose by more than 50% from approximately 1,600 per sq m to almost 2,500 per sq m. For owners with no long-term commitment to the residential property market, it may therefore be sensible to realise these gains and part with (some of) their holdings. In some instances, this may even be lucrative with significantly shorter holding periods, such as the sale of the Obligo portfolio by Patrizia last year after only a few months of ownership. Rising development activity is increasing supply The rapid growth in the development segment is also creating purchase opportunities. Last year alone, the transaction volume for development projects (50 residential units or more) graph 4 Residential transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Listed property company Open-ended special fund Housing association Other asset manager Public administration Leasing company Sovereign wealth fund Bank Open-ended public fund Other Closed-ended fund Private-equity fund Private investor / Family office Corporate Insurance company / Pension fund Developer Source: Savills Comment bn Lack of small apartments Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months Germany is running out of apartments, at least in the core growth areas. This is now a consensus view. However, there is little discussion of the fact that the apartment shortage is also so acute because apartments are too large. The average number of persons living in a household has been in decline for decades, while the proportion of single-person households is currently at a record high of 41%. This is contrasted with a supply of 1 and 2-room apartments that represents just 12% of the total German housing stock. However, new-build apartments have become increasingly large in recent times. Something that could previously be described as indicative of an affluent society, in which people with rising incomes could afford larger and larger apartments in a market with relatively flat growth in apartment rents and prices, is now becoming a serious problem. The strong price growth over the last five years now often means that the spacious apartments in Berlin, Hamburg and Munich are unaffordable for the average two-person German household. Consequently, apartments that were once considered cramped are now once again in demand. Low-income, single-person households such as students and young professionals have felt the effects of this for a long time and are being completely squeezed out of the apartment market. Moreover, it is highly likely that the peak of this trend has yet to be reached. A change of thinking is urgently required and the quicker this happens, the earlier the current housing shortage can be resolved. savills.de/research 03

4 The fundamental conditions for the german housing market remain excellent in the medium term and the demand of investors stays high. Matthias Pink, Savills Research graph 5 Multi-family housing yields* and risk premium vs. government bonds 10% 9% 8% 7% Premium A-cities vs. 10Y bunds B-cities D-cities A-cities C-cities totalled more than 1.7bn, which represented an increase of almost one fifth compared with the previous year. In view of the rising development activity, investors will be able to invest significantly more capital here over the coming years. However, given its fragmented nature, with an average transaction volume of approximately 30m in recent years, the segment is somewhat unsuitable for investors with large investment requirements. Sixty towns and cities have positive population projections Whether their investment requirements are large or small, in the current highly competitive environment, the question for all investors is in which towns, cities and regions they should deploy their capital. For investors with a short-term, counter-cyclical investment approach, the answer is fairly clear: in preferably none of them. The cycle is too far advanced and the downside risks in terms of capital appreciation outweigh the upside prospects. Against this background, the traditionally opportunistic private equity funds, who had invested several billion euros in German residential portfolios by spring 2013, have now largely withdrawn from the market (Graph 7). For long-term investors, who consider stable rental income more important than short-term capital growth, the German residential market remains appealing. However, these should focus on those towns and cities with favourable population projections in order to minimise structural risks. This currently applies to around sixty relevant markets, which had an average gross initial yield of 6.2% at the end of 2015 (Graph 8). Investors seeking above-average initial yields could focus on those locations within these sixty towns and cities that are under-valued in relation to their population projections. These include Braunschweig, Erfurt, Gießen and Greifswald, all of which have gross initial yields above 7%. Population projections likely to be revised upwards The picture shown in Graph 8 is likely to prove a more pessimistic representation of expected population growth than can actually be anticipated. This is explained by the fact that population projections are still 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Bulwiengesa, Thomson Reuters, Savills / * yields: gross initial yield graph 7 Net investment volume of private equity funds in Germany bn Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Source: Savills graph 6 An overview of the owner structure of the german housing stock - high concentration within the private sector Housing stock in Germany 38.6 million flats Privat person(s) Community of home owners Municipal housing companies Private housing companies Housing associations Other 22.7m 8.5m 2.2m 2.1m 2.1m 1.0m Vonovia Deutsche Wohnen LEG Immobilien TAG Immobilien Buwog Other 370, , ,000 75,000 27, m Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Savills savills.de/research 04

5 based on assumptions made before the wave of immigration into Germany had reached its (provisional) peak. In that respect, it can be assumed that the next projections for Germany will generally assume stronger population growth. While it remains unclear how the immigration will impact demographic growth in the individual towns, cities and regions, there is much to suggest that the towns and cities already showing growth will witness further increases. Since the construction industry is already working at close to capacity, residential supply cannot grow at the same pace in the medium term. Thus, the existing disparity between housing supply and demand will become even more acute in these towns and cities over the coming years. This will translate into even greater income prospects for investors that already hold residential property or those that win the bidding contests for these sought-after properties. graph 8 Risk-return matrix: Overview of multi-family housing yields and population forecasts of German cities 12% 11% Salzgitter Bremerhaven gross initial yield 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Plauen Frankfurt (Oder) Suhl Zwickau Gelsenkirchen Dessau Gera Brandenburg (Havel) Eisenach Halberstadt Recklinghausen Herne Duisburg Wilhelmshaven Albstadt Görlitz Hagen Lüdenscheid Solingen MindenChemnitz Oberhausen Remscheid Neubrandenburg Bochum Wuppertal Neumünster Siegen Saarbrücken Flensburg Greifswald Wolfsburg Cottbus Bottrop Witten Krefeld Mönchengladbach Halle (Saale) Kaiserslautern Coburg Essen Villingen-Schwenningen Moers Braunschweig Hildesheim Hamm Stralsund MagdeburgDortmund Mülheim (Ruhr) Lübeck Kassel Gütersloh Pforzheim Ludwigshafen Weimar Bielefeld Hanau Erfurt Schweinfurt Kiel Leverkusen Schwerin Düren Detmold Jena Heilbronn Paderborn Fulda Marburg Bremen Rostock Bayreuth Kempten (Allgäu) Mannheim Leipzig Koblenz Reutlingen Ratingen Bamberg Lüneburg Trier Neuss Gießen Bergisch Gladbach Osnabrück Göttingen Fürth Hannover Darmstadt Tübingen Friedrichshafen Aachen Mainz Dresden Augsburg Oldenburg Offenbach (Main) Bonn Offenburg Aschaffenburg Landshut Ulm Nürnberg Düsseldorf Passau Wiesbaden Karlsruhe Würzburg Ingolstadt Köln Erlangen Ravensburg Regensburg Hamburg Münster Heidelberg Freiburg (Breisgau) Konstanz Stuttgart Berlin Frankfurt (Main) Rosenheim Potsdam München 4% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% Population change Source: Bulwiengesa, Statistisches Bundesamt, Savills savills.de/research 05

6 Savills Germany Savills is present in Germany with around 200 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. Today Savills provides expertise and market transparency to its clients in the following areas of activity: D HH B Our services Purchase and sale of single assets and portfolios Corporate Finance Valuation Leasing of office and retail buildings Leasing and sale of industrial and warehouse properties Landlord and Occupier Services C F S M Savills Germany Please contact us for further information Marcus Lemli CEO Germany +49 (0) mlemli@savills.de Andreas Wende Investment +49 (0) awende@savills.de Marcus Mornhart Office Agency +49 (0) mmornhart@savills.de Karsten Nemecek Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 (0) knemecek@savills.de Draženko Grahovac Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 (0) dgrahovac@savills.de Matthias Pink Research +49 (0) mpink@savills.de Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows and now has over 700 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East with more than 30,000 employees worldwide. Savills is present in Germany with around 200 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. This bulletin is for general informative purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. Savills savills.de/research 06