Investor Information July 2016

Transcription

1 Investor Information July 2016 Austrian Treasury

2 Agenda 1. General Overview Austria s favourable fundamentals 3 2. Funding Strategy 26 2

3 Austria Key Data and Facts Austria Euro-Zone Area (sq. km 000) Population 2015 (Mio.) Population growth ( , average yearly change) +0.8% +0.3% GDP per capita 2015 (EUR) Net financial assets per private household 2015 (EUR) Euro-Zone (EU19) EU28 Source: Eurostat, OECD 1) EA19 without Ireland 3

4 Austria Key Data and Facts in % Austria Euro-Zone Real GDP growth Inflation (HICP) Unemployment Current Account Balance Budget Balance (Maastricht) Structural Budget Balance Debt to GDP Year Source: Data on Austria: Federal Ministry of Finance, April 2016 / EC Spring Economic Forecast, May 2016 / WIFO, June 2016 / Statistics Austria, July 2016 Data on Euro-Zone: EC Spring Economic Forecast, May

5 Austria GDP and Exports Composition of Austrian GDP 1 Geographic Distribution EUR bn Imports Exports Consumption 73% Investments 24% Net exports 4% Exports 53% America 5% Africa 1% EU- Others 10% Australia Asia 0% 13% EU-28 71% America 9% Africa 1% EU- Others 10% Australia Asia 1% 10% EU-28 69% Imports 49% Eurozone: 56.6% Europe: 80.5% Eurozone: 51.1% Europe: 79.1% Source: 1) Statistics Austria as of July ) Statistics Austria as of June

6 Composition of the Austrian GDP - Low exposure to financial sector (3.8% of GDP) Other administrative and support service activities:8.4% Education; human health and social work activities:10.9% Public administration:4.6% Other service activities:2.5% Agriculture, forestry and fishing:1.2% Mining and quarrying; manufacturing:17.2% Electricity; water supply; sewerage and waste management:2.3% Construction:5.7% Real estate activities:8.9% Wholesale and retail trade:10.7% Financial and insurance activities:3.8% Information and communication:3.1% Transportation:5.0% Accommodation and food service activities:4.6% Source: Statistics Austria as of July

7 Ratings Overview Long Term Short Term Outlook Moody s Aa1 P-1 Stable Standard & Poors AA+ A-1+ Stable Fitch AA+ F1+ Stable DBRS AAA R-1 (high) Stable Sustainability Country Rating Sustainalytics oekom research Ranked 9th out of 172 countries worldwide Ranked 10th out of 57 countries worldwide All rating reports available online at 7

8 Austria s High Institutional Strength Worldbank Governance Indicators 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Rule of Law: ranked 8 out of 215 countries worldwide Political Stability & Absence of Violence: ranked 9 out of 215 countries worldwide Voice and Accountability: ranked 11 out of 215 countries worldwide Government Effectiveness: ranked 19 out of 215 countries worldwide Rule of Law Voice and Accountability Government Effectiveness Political Stability & Absence of Violence Note: Values range from -2.5 (weak) to +2.5 (strong) / data as of June

9 Austria s Favourable Fiscal Position % of GDP Austria s Government Debt Ratio lower than Euro area and European average Forecast Austria Euro area EU Source: Data on Austria: Statistics Austria, March 2016 / Federal Ministry of Finance, April 2016 Data on EU28 & Euro-Zone: Eurostat, EC - Spring Economic Forecast, May

10 Austria s Favourable Fiscal Position Budget deficit % of GDP Austria Euro area EU Forecast More details on the fiscal consolidation strategy of Austria: Austrian Stability Programme Source: Data on Austria: Statistics Austria, March 2016 / Federal Ministry of Finance, April 2016 Data on EU28 & Euro-Zone: Eurostat, EC - Spring Economic Forecast, May

11 Public Debt/GDP - Europe Euro area Non-euro area countries % of GDP Estonia Luxembourg Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Finland Malta Netherlands Germany Slovenia Austria Euro area Ireland France Spain Belgium Cyprus Portugal Italy Greece 9,7 9, ,4 22,5 2016e 36,4 39,8 42,7 41,1 52,9 53,4 63,1 65,2 63,9 60,9 65,1 64,9 71,2 68,6 83,2 80,2 86,2 84,3 92,9 92,2 93,8 89,1 95,8 96,4 99,2 100,3 106,0 106,4 108,9 108,9 129,0 126,0 132,7 132,7 176,9 182,8 % of GDP Bulgaria e Romania Denmark Czech Republic Sweden Poland 75,3 Hungary 74,3 86,7 Croatia 87,6 86,8 EU 86,4 89,2 United Kingdom 89,7 26,7 28,1 38,4 38,7 40,2 38,7 41,1 41,3 43,4 41,3 51,3 52, Source: EC Spring Economic Forecast, May

12 Public Debt/GDP - International % of GDP 250 Forecast 248,1 249,3 250, ,7 132,7 131,8 105,8 107,5 107,5 92,9 95,8 92,2 96,4 97,0 91,1 86,2 84,3 82,6 71,2 68,6 66, e 2017e Austria Euro area Germany France Italy USA Japan Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2016 / Federal Ministry of Finance, April 2016 / EC Spring Economic Forecast, May

13 * Federal government - Interest payments Absolute level of interest payments relatively stable Relative to GDP interest payments are now at around 2% and still well below peak levels in 1996 in Mil EUR in % of GDP 3.4% in % of GDP 2.0% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% * Interest payments 2016: Draft Budgetary Plan 13

14 Indebtedness of households and corporates Level of corporate and household indebtedness substantially below Euro-Zone average in % of GDP 75 Household Debt Corporate Debt 1 in % of GDP AT: % of GDP EA: % of GDP AT: % of GDP EA: % of GDP 1 Short- and long-term loans, money and capital market instruments. Source: European Central Bank, Austrian National Bank, April

15 Total indebtedness of the real economy Level of total indebtedness in Austria substantially below most advanced countries Japan Ireland Portugal Greece Netherlands Belgium Sweden Denmark Spain France Italy United States United Kingdom Finland Austria Hungary Norway Germany Slovakia Poland Czech Republic Romania Russia Total debt in % of GDP Government debt Corporate debt Household debt Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, European Commission, BIS, Haver Analytics, National Central Banks, McKinsey Global Institute Data as of 2Q14 for advanced economies (except government debt); 2013 data for other economies Government debt data as of end-2015: European Commission, Spring Forecast, May 2016 (for EU countries), IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2016 (other countries) 15

16 Austria s strong competitive position 6,0 % of GDP Current Account Balance 5,0 4,0 3,0 Austria s sustainable current account surplus reflects strong international competitiveness Forecast 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3, Austria Euro area EU Source: Eurostat, EC Spring Economic Forecast, May

17 Austria is an International Net Lender Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) of the nation in % of GDP Greece Portugal United States United Kingdom Spain net capital import France Ireland Italy Furthermore Austria has a positive net international investment position (Q1 2016: 3.8% of GDP) 1 European Union Finland Euro area Belgium Austria Japan net capital export Germany Netherlands Source: European Commission (AMECO), June ) OeNB, July 2016 in % of GDP (average e) 17

18 Slovenia Belgium Luxembourg Germany Lithuania Netherlands Finland Malta Ireland Austria Eurozone (EU-19) Slovakia Portugal Itlay Greece France Spain Latvia Cyprus Estonia Age-related expenditure under control 5 Total Age-related expenditure in the euro area (projected change in pp of GDP, ) Pursuing further structural pension reforms is one of the key goals of the federal government. Source: European Commission Ageing Report, May 2015 (baseline scenario) 18

19 Austria s population growth outperforms European average 125 in % 2015 = Belgium Austria Finland France Netherlands EU28 Germany Spain Portugal Greece Source: Eurostat, data extracted in June 2016 Population Projections (main scenario): Assumptions related to fertility, mortality, net international migration as well as the approximated values of life expectancy at birth 19

20 High Social Stability 0,50 Gini Coefficient 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 Austria s low Gini coefficient indicates a relatively equal income distribution Source: OECD Income Distribution Database, no data for Chile and Japan available / Gini coefficient 2014 or latest available, June

21 Austria s favourable fundamentals High GDP per capita and low unemployment Austria s GDP per capita 1 : 4 th highest in the EU in % of EU-28 average Luxembourg: Sweden France Finland Belgium Germany Austria Netherlands Ireland EU 19 GDP per capita since 2007 up from 5 th to 4 th rank in the EU Source: European Commission, Eurostat as of June ) in purchasing power standards Austria s unemployment rate: 3 rd lowest in the Eurozone in % Unemployment rate around half of the Eurozone-average Lowest long-term and 2 nd lowest youth unemployment rate in the EU Austria Euro area EU

22 Strong Innovation Performance Austria s R&D expenditure above peers in % of GDP 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Research and Development expenditure Finland Austria Germany Belgium OECD France Netherlands EU-28 UK Luxembourg Source: OECD (2016), Gross domestic spending on R&D (indicator). doi: /d8b068b4-en (Accessed on 04 March 2016) 22

23 EU Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Austria ranks top among peers External Imbalances Internal Imbalances New employment indicators Current Account Balance as % of GDP, 3 year average Net International Investment Position as % of GDP Real Effective Exchange Rate (42 IC - HICP deflator), % change (3 years) Export Market Shares, % change (5 years) Nominal ULC, % change (3 years) Deflated House Price Index (1-year % change) Private Sector Credit Flow as % of GDP, consolidated Private Sector Debt as % of GDP, consolidat ed General Government Sector Debt as % of GDP Unemploy ment Rate, 3 year average Total Financial Sector Liabilities (1-year % change) Activity rate in % of total population aged (3 years change) Long-term unemployment rate in % of active population aged (3 years change) Youth unemployment rate in % of active population aged (3 years change) # of Total warning signals Threshold -4/+6% -35% +/- 5% (EA) +/- 11% (Non-EA) -6% 9% (EA) 12% (Non-EA) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5% Austria Finland Luxembourg Germany Denmark Sweden Belgium UK France Netherlands Ireland Source: MIP Scoreboard, European Commission (January 2016) 23

24 Ireland Malta Luxembourg Cyprus Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Spain Norway Sweden France Germany Denmark Lithuania Latvia Canada Finland Hungary Italy Austria Austria: Least exposed to Brexit scenario 3,5 S&P s Brexit Sensitivity Index 3 2,5 2 Migration Factor Financial Factor Foreign Direct Investment Factor Export factor 1,5 1 0,5 0 Source: S&P, Who has the most to lose from Brexit? Brexit Sensitivity Index (June 9, 2016) 24

25 Austria A Safe Haven Core-Eurozone Economy Diversified and competitive economy (eg ranked 14 out of 186 countries worldwide 1 ) No major macroeconomic imbalances High level of innovation - R&D expenditure 2016e: above 3% of GDP / among Top-10 worldwide 2 Strong exports and tourism - 4 th most diversified export structure in the world (out of 217 countries) 3 3 rd lowest unemployment in Eurozone Sustainable current account surplus Net capital exporting country and positive net international investment position High savings ratio / 2 nd highest percentage of savers worldwide 4 4 th richest country in the EU 5 3 rd most peaceful country in the world (out of 163) 6 Very low vulnerability to climate change / ranked 3 out of 116 countries worldwide 7 1) Euromoney Country Risk Survey, June ) Statistics Austria, April 2016 / Research and Development Expenditures in % of GDP, June 2016 (UNESCO) 3) UNCTAD Statistics, Concentration and diversification indices of merchandise exports, June ) World Bank Global Financial Inclusion Database, (% aged 15+) saved any money in the past year 5) 2014 GDP per capita on purchasing power parities, Eurostat, June ) Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Peace Index 2016, June ) S&P, May

26 in bn EUR Funding 2016 around 2% of Eurozone 40 Total gross funding volume e Redemptions Net funding volume e 1) all funding instruments including 10% own quota of the auctions and pre-funding 2. Funding Strategy 26

27 Funding Outlook 2016 Total issuance including all instruments (RAGB, T-bills, EMTN, loans): 2016: bn EUR 2015: 23.2 bn EUR (announced on Dec 11, 2014: 22 24bn EUR) RAGB issuance 2016: bn EUR RAGB issuance 2015: 18.8 bn EUR (announced on Dec 11, 2014: bn EUR ) 2016: at least two syndicated issues Total portfolio tenor as of end-2016: years (end-2015: 8.39 years) As of July 2016: over 55% of total funding program completed 2. Funding Strategy 27

28 Key metrics of Federal Debt Portfolio in years 14 in % 4, % 8.39y 4 3,5 3 2, ,5 1 0, Total Annual Funding: Avg. Maturity Years (lhs) Federal Debt Portfolio: Avg. Maturity Years (lhs) Federal Debt Portfolio: Avg. Effective Interest Rate % (rhs) Total Annual Funding: Avg. Yield % (rhs) 0 2. Funding Strategy 28

29 Reliable funding strategy Announced vs. executed funding programmes Highly reliable and conservative funding announcements: Year Announcement Executed 2006 RAGB issuance bn EUR 18 bn 2007 RAGB issuance bn EUR 18 bn 2008 RAGB issuance bn EUR 10 bn 2009 RAGB issuance bn EUR 18 bn 2010 RAGB issuance bn EUR 20 bn 2011 RAGB issuance bn EUR 16 bn 2012 RAGB issuance bn EUR 22 bn 2013 RAGB issuance 20-24bn EUR 22 bn 2014 RAGB issuance 22-26bn EUR 22 bn 2015 RAGB issuance 15-19bn EUR 19 bn 2. Funding Strategy 29

30 Auction Calendar & Issuance 2016 Announcement Issue date Value date Jan 5 Jan 12 Jan 14 EUR 0.52 bn increase of 2.40% RAGB EUR 0.83 bn increase of 1.20% RAGB Feb 2 Feb 9 Feb 11 EUR 0.44 bn increase of 3.15% RAGB EUR 0.67 bn increase of 1.20% RAGB Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 23 EUR 1.50 bn syndication of 1.50% RAGB EUR 3.50 bn syndication of 0.75% RAGB Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 10 EUR 0.44 bn increase of 0.75% RAGB EUR 0.66 bn increase of 3.50% RAGB Mar 29 Apr 5 Apr 7 EUR 0.49 bn increase of 1.50% RAGB EUR 0.61 bn increase of 0.75% RAGB May 3 May 10 May 12 EUR 0.54 bn increase of 2.40% RAGB EUR 0.67 bn increase of 0.75% RAGB May 31 Jun 7 Jun 9 EUR 0.72 bn increase of 0.75% RAGB EUR 0.48 bn increase of 1.75% RAGB Jun 28 Jul 5 Jul 7 EUR 0.62 bn increase of 6.25% RAGB EUR 0.62 bn increase of 0.75% RAGB Aug 2 Aug 9 (reserve date) Aug 11 Aug 30 Sep 6 Sep 8 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 13 Oct 31 Nov 8 Nov 10 Dec 6 Dec 13 Dec 15 The average tenor of the outstanding debt is 8.36 years (as of June 30, 2016). Volume and tenors are announced one week prior to the auction date at A re-opening of existing issues is regularly done in order to enhance liquidity. 2. Funding Strategy 30

31 Last syndication of the 10.5-YR 31-YR Strong demand: total book size over EUR 7.1bn 10-yr 0.75% coupon is the lowest ever for a 10-year RAGB 31yr now the second longest RAGB providing a new reference point in this segment. 1.50% coupon considerably below the last 32-year RAGB issued in June 2012 at 3.15% Investors: 188 high quality real money accounts, well diversified Only 20% investor-overlap between both lines * *34% German investors 2. Funding Strategy 31

32 Cornerstones of Funding Strategy Diversity of funding sources (geographically and by instruments) Financial flexibility (e.g. to address specific investor demand) Capitalizing on scarcity value and strong fundamentals Secondary market liquidity Monthly auctions 20+ RAGB primary dealers, 9 ATB dealers One of the lowest debt rollover ratios Conservative debt management strategy around 95% fixed rate < 10% short term debt No foreign currency risk Well-balanced maturity profile Reliability, Transparency, stability-oriented approach Rigorous Investor Relations Program 2. Funding Strategy 32

33 Debt Rollover Ratio among lowest worldwide defined as short-term debt stock of the previous year plus maturing medium- and longterm debt in % of GDP - indicator for refinancing-risk Austria: very low refinancingrisk Conservative strategy Source: S&P Global Sovereign Debt Report 2016, February Funding Strategy 33

34 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 PSPP* holdings of RAGBs as % of outstanding stock EUR bn Estimated OeNB holdings of RAGBs Austria s capital key: 2.6% Weighted avg. maturity of holdings: 8.92 yrs Purchases will run at least until March 2017 % of RAGB stock - projected (rhs) in % 25% 20% 15% 15 10% % 0 0% * Public Sector Puchase Programme of the Eurosystem (more details: PSPP Q&A on ECB website) Source: ECB, Austrian Treasury / data as of 30 June Funding Strategy 34

35 Investor Base / 1 Over 90% of debt held by investors domiciled in Europe Over 80% within the Eurozone 1 Domestic Non-domestic Prior to introduction of EUR around 70% (=ATS) 30% After introduction of EUR around 80% (=EUR) 20% Distribution by region 2 Europe (incl. Austria) 88% Asia 5% Americas 5% Africa 1% Middle East 1% Distribution by category 2 Banks 38% Asset managers 29% Insurance & pension funds 17% Central banks & int. org. 13% Retail 2% Others 1% Source: 1) IMF (CPIS) / Austrian National Bank 2) Austrian Treasury estimates: syndicated RAGB issues Diversified investor base with Eurozone as home market (and strong overweight by Austrian investors) 2. Funding Strategy 35

36 Investor Base / 2 in bn EUR Government debt and household assets in % Strong domestic wealth Growth in net financial assets of households exceeds increase in government debt Sustainable current account surplus GDP per capita is more than 35% higher than EUaverage Household financial assets (Gross) in bn EUR Household financial assets (Net) in bn EUR Government debt in bn EUR Savings rate in % (rhs) Domestic investment funds Substantially overweight Austrian government debt against common benchmarks Source: Austrian National Bank, June 2016 / Statistics Austria, March Funding Strategy 36

37 in bn. EUR Debt Portfolio Redemption Profile Well Diversified Redemptions as of Redemptions as of Conservative debt portfolio: 8.36 yrs average maturity around 97% fixed rate among the lowest rollover ratios worldwide Funding Strategy 37

38 y Yields - Austria vs. Germany Yield in % 5,0 4,5 4,0 10y Austria benchmark yield 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 10y Germany benchmark yield 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Source: Bloomberg 2. Funding Strategy 38

39 Summary Strong credit fundamentals, diversified and competitive economy No major macroeconomic imbalances Sound financial policies High institutional strength 3 rd lowest unemployment in Eurozone Strong exports and tourism Sustainable current account surplus Conservative funding strategy Net capital exporting country and positive net international investment position 39

40 Further Information (Austrian Treasury): auction calendar, debt portfolio, rating reports, etc. (Online retail savings product) (Federal Ministry of Finance): details on the Austrian budget and Financial Stability Measures (Statistics Austria) (Austrian Court of Audit): Reports on the Federal Financial Statements (in German only) (Austrian National Bank) (Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council) (Eurostat) europa.eu/efc/sub_committee (EFC Sub-Committee on EU Sovereign Debt Markets) (OeKB / Government Bonds page) 40

41 Contact Austrian Treasury Austria Vienna, Seilerstaette 24 Phone: (+43 1) Web: Reuters: AFFA01 07 Bloomberg: RAGB, AUST Managing Director Markus Stix, markus.stix@oebfa.at Capital Markets Contact: Christian Schreckeis, CFA (Head), christian.schreckeis@oebfa.at, ext. 48 Martin Dymkowski, martin.dymkowski@oebfa.at, ext. 46 Christoph Frömel, CFA, christoph.froemel@oebfa.at, ext. 44 Anja Tritremmel, CFA, anja.tritremmel@oebfa.at, ext. 37 Money Markets Contact: Günther Wahl (Head), guenther.wahl@oebfa.at, ext. 16 Sabine Denk, CFA, sabine.denk@oebfa.at, ext. 14 Pia Zivanovic-Amann, MBA, pia.zivanovic-amann@oebfa.at, ext