1 Steel Production in Czech Republic Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015
2 Main Economic Indicators % Change Czech Republic E 16P Private Consumption 1, ,8 0,4 1,7 2,8 2,3 Governm. consumption 0,4-2,9-1,0 2,3 1,9 2,0 1,3 Gross Capital Formation 4,4 1,9-3,7-5,1 3,7 5,7 5,3 Total Investments 1,3 1,1-2,9-4,4 4,6 5,3 4,1 Machinery & Equipment 3,7 6,6 1,5-1,9 5,7 6,0 5,2 Construction -0,1-5,0-5,8-6,4 3,0 4,2 4,0 Other Equipment -6,0 3,5 0,7 7,1 2,5 3,5 2,5 Exports 15,0 9,3 4,0 0,4 8,7 5,4 5,1 Imports 15,0 6,7 2,4 0,4 9,5 5,9 5,0 Gross Domestic Product 2,3 2,0-0,8-0,7 2,0 2,7 2,5 Inflation 1,5 1,9 3,3 1,4 0,4 0,3 1,4 Unemployment 7,3 6,7 7,0 7,0 6,1 5,7 5,6 Industrial Production 8,6 5,9-0,8-0,1 4,9 4,5 4,0 Construction -7,4-3,6-7,6-6,7 2,3 4,0 3,6 Real GDP increased by 2.0% in the 2014Y and a moderate recovery of economic activity therefore continued. We expect the economy to grow by 2.7% this year. In 2016, real GDP growth could slow down marginally to 2.5%. Growth in both years should be driven exclusively by domestic demand, with the contributions of final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation being roughly balanced.
3 Gross Domestic Product GDP, Q4 2014: (+1,5)% y-o-y, /(+0,4)% q-o-q/ Significant growth of investment (+4,4)% Households consumption increased by 2.0% Negative impact of external trade For the 2015 year is expected: Substantial increase in private and government consumption unemployment decrease more quickly than was expected The key pro-growth factor: Revival of investment partly with government support Net exports of goods should weigh on growth; solid growth of domestic demand will push up imports.
4 Gross Domestic Product Q in y-o-y comparison (c.p.): Final consumption expenditure +1,8% from that: households (+2.0)% expenditure increased mainly in durable goods and transport equipment compared to Q final consumption increased by (+1.4)% from that households increased by (+1.2)% and government by (+1.9)% Gross capital formation (+1,9)% from that: fixed capital (+4,4)% acquisition of valuables (+12,7)% growth in investments to transport and machinery equipment, other buildings and structures, dwellings.
5 Fiscal Policy Small surplus on the current account Small surplus on the current account Current account of the balance of payments could post a small surplus both in this and the next year. Further increases of surplus on the balance of goods will be supported by the development of the price of oil and the exchange rate. General government deficit under 3% of GDP Small surplus on the current account The deficit of the general government sector reached 1.3% of GDP in the deficit should remain well below the threshold of 3% of GDP. The indebtedness of the general government sector should further decrease from an estimated 43.2% of GDP in 2014 to 41.3% of GDP in 2015.
6 External Economic Relations Q(1-4) trade balance surplus - - CZK 155,2 bn CZK (current prices) (+48,7 bn, y-o-y) improved mainly in: machinery and transport equipment (road vehicles) deficit decreased in mineral fuels and increased in chemicals Exports increase by 12,7% and imports by 11,4% (y-o-y) Prognosis for 2015, 2016Y: Increase in both exports and imports by 5.4% (5,9%) and 5.1% (5,0%) Difference between the growth of exports and imports takes into consideration further recovery of domestic demand and the impact of Czech koruna depreciation to Euro.
7 inflation very low inflation (0,4%) despite a weakening of the Czech koruna (CNB s foreign exchange interventions), particularly a decrease in electricity prices have had an anti inflationary impact. In 2015 we assume that inflation will still be (0,3%), below the CNB s inflation target. Consumer price growth should accelerate in 2016 (+1,4%) Trend of Prices Q to Q on average: industrial producer prices (-1,9)% /av. 2014Y (-0,8)% y-o-y/ coke, petroleum products (-11.3%) electricity, gas, seam and air conditioning (- 8,8%) Basic metals, metal products (+2,5%) transport equipment (+1,9%) prices of construction work (+0.8)% prices of construction material input (+0.9)% Inflation should remain very low
8 Consumer Prices and Unemployment Q % y-o-y /2014Y+0.4/ market prices +1.0% regulated prices (-2.1)% influenced by prices related to housing and healthcare (electricity, gas, abolition of healthcare fees) q-o-q price level decreased by 0.1% Unemployment unemployment in Q reached 5.8% (ILO); -1.0 p.p. y-o-y; /Q %/ The share of persons unemployed for 1 year and longer attained 46.2% high unemployment rate pertains in the group of persons with basic education (21,7%) Unemployment in Q4 is at the lowest level since the beginning of economic recession in Q quarterly average, in thousands of persons, in % (rhs)
9 Confidence Indicators In the start of 2015Y assessments in industry, construction and trade are predominantly positive. Also the composite, business and chiefly consumer indicators showed a further increase in their values.
10 Industrial Production Q IP index (+3.2)% y-o-y /2014Y (+4.9)%/ from that: Motor vehicles, trailers (+7.2%) Other transport equipment (+7,1%). Coke and petroleum products (+15.4) Computer, electronics (+20.5%) Electrical equipment (+7.4%) Basic metals (+2.5%) Q4 to Q (+2.6)%/ Q continuing growth of demand mainly from domestic customers New orders (+7.4)% y-o-y / 2014Y (+12.1)%/ of which: Non-domestic (+6.5)% Domestic orders (+9.1)% January 2015 positive but descending trend continues; IP index (+2.9)% y-o-y, The value of new orders (+1.1)% Lower prognosis for IP 2015 Y (+4.5% y-o-y) take into account possible impact of continuing restrictions on foreign trade EU/Czech Russia
11 Steel Using Sectors Steel using sectors y-o-y changes (%) E 2016P Automotive Industry 20,8 0,9-2,3 13,1 4,8 4,3 Construction -2,8-7,5-5,9 2,7 4,0 3,6 Metal Goods 11,5-0,3 2,6 6,1 4,7 3,9 Steel Tube Industry 4,6 1,5-3,2 3,3 4,4 4,2 Mechanical Engineering 12,0 2,0 2,8 1,5 5,1 4,0 SWIP Total 7,7-1,0-1,4 5,7 4,3 4,0 Q4 2014Y - SWIP index increased by 2.3% y-o-y / 2014 (+5.7)%/, Moderate economic recovery from H gain momentum in H Substantial increase in orders from both foreign and domestic producers Improving business cycle indicators is reflected in the decision making of households and firms on their consumption and investment The y-o-y development was most influenced by: Gradual change in production of Automotive Industry (mainly growth of orders on Europe market) partly influenced by development of new models Increase in production of metal goods and welding tubes first of all for export Growth of construction production compare to very low value of the same period of the last year
12 Steel Using Sectors Economic growth have intensified from the last half of 2013Y significant growth in H partly influenced by comparison with very weak period of the last year (construction etc.) From Q growing production and demand 2015, 2016 continuing growth of SWIP index, gradual revival in construction especially in civil engineering
13 Steel Using Sectors Create more than 26% of Czech industrial production Q IP index (+7.2)% y-o-y /2014Y +13.0%/ Production Q(1-4) motor cars (+ 10.5)% y-o-y from that 821 trucks (+7,0% y-o-y) 3893 buses (+5,5% y-o-y) 1075 motorcycles (- 20,6% y-o-y) export sales 94,6% SKODA (+15.0)%; TPCA Czech (+ 9,7%); Hyundai (+1,3)% 2015Y expected growth of production SWIP (+ 4,8)% y-o-y
14 Steel Using Sectors Construction output Corresponding period of previous year=100 y-o-y indices 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 4Q 13 1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q 14 Total 88,8 88,3 96,1 96,9 108,3 103,9 101,2 99,5 Building construction 89,6 88,8 99,9 96,6 110,4 101,5 96,4 97,2 Civil engineering 86,5 87,0 88,3 97,4 101,4 109,2 112,3 104,2 In Q the construction output slightly decreased by 0,5% y-o-y while total value of the orders decreased by 1,1% chiefly due to the y-o-y fall of building construction orders. Marked improving in civil engineering production and orders (government orders motorway etc.) Construction work orders (year-on-year indices) Index(Corresponding period of previous year = 100) 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2014 New orders in the CR Total 53,7 86,3 92,3 107,6 82,3 98,4 98,7 116,2 166,5 117,5 133,2 98,9 Building construction 62,9 107,0 110,4 137,5 64,7 98,7 80,6 94,4 151,9 87,2 113,3 83,3 Civil engineering 46,4 70,5 77,5 88,4 101,0 98,1 119,7 137,9 176,5 152,7 148,7 109,7 2014Y y-o-y production +2,3%; improvement not only in the sphere of civil engineering works but in completed and starting dwellings too.
15 Steel Industry Development in basic metal products Q av. IP index (+2.5)% y-o-y; /Q (+1.1)%/, y-o-y growth of industrial orders (+0.4)%; /Q (+8.8)%/ Y 2014 IP index on average (+2.6%); /2013 (-1.8)/ Final steel production (tons) in 2014 (-1.7)% y-o-y; /H1 2014Y (+2.2)%/ (+0.0)% production of rolled material (- 0.5)% long products (- 4.4)% flat products (+ 8.3)% semi-finished products (- 1.7)% supplies on foreign markets EU12 (+0.3)% - new states EU15 (-5.7)% Other country (+8.1)% (-0.7)% supplies on domestic markets Prices of steel products in 2014Y increased by 2.4%, y-o-y, on average
16 Steel Industry AC in 2014Y markedly increased by (+5.6%) y-o-y; Q4 (+2.1) y-o-y Q1, Q replenishment of the stock level Reversed trend in import export ratio to 2013Y (import decreased by 6.4% y-o-y, while export decreased by 15.7% Prognosis for AC in 2015Y (+4,4)% y-o-y /1.1% up to our last estimate/
17 Steel Industry Y-o-y, on average: RC in 2013 (-1.2)%; (Q1-Q4) considerable growth by 4.7% mainly connected with development of SWIP index Prognosis for RC in 2015Y (+3.6)% /0.6% up to our last estimate/
18 Steel Industry Estimate for 2016Y is derived from: Continuing but lesser y-o-y increase of SWIP index in industry, Temporary growth in construction; civil engineering works and revival in the sphere of non-residential and residential projects Y-o-y prognosis for RC (+3.1%) and AC (+3.9%) is in line with estimated prevailing tendency to stock replenishment
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