Global Wood Markets: Consumption, Production and Trade

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1 Global Wood Markets: Consumption, Production and Trade By Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section Geneva, Switzerland

2 Presentation topics I. Introduction II. Where is the supply? Global forests III. Where is the production? Where is the demand? IV. Forest products trade Primary Secondary V. Conclusions VI. Discussion

3 Why s this important? I. Introduction Trends in demand and supply of wood products Geographical shifts in production, consumption and trade Position of Europe in global markets What forest products? Wood vs non-wood Traditional and new products Topical issues Traditional, e.g. trade disputes New, e.g. subsidies for wood energy

4 II. Global forests and forest products

5 Forests and deforestation Europe Asia & Pacific Net forest loss: 1990s 8.3 million ha/year million ha/year Million hectares Mideast North America -4-5 Sources: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessments 2000, 2005, 2010 Africa S. America Natural Plantation Total Central America

6 Why deforestation? Conversion to other uses: agriculture, palm oil, pasture, urbanization Fire, insects, disease Root causes: poverty, firewood, illegal logging Offset by plantations and natural expansion Positive trend of a negative issue

7 Global roundwood harvests Source: State of the World s Forests, 2009, FAO.

8 World roundwood vs fuelwood Billion m Of 3.5 billion m 3, slightly more than half is used as woodfuel Industrial roundwood Woodfuel Source: FAOStat, 2009.

9 Woodfuel use Increasing in developed world, but efficient, environmentally sound combustion. Inefficient domestic heating and cooking

10 Modern wood energy Efficient, clean combustion Carbon neutral Renewable energy Market outlet for low-grade fiber

11 Modern wood energy Processed fuels Not bulky firewood Conveyable chips (high moisture) Dry, high calorie pellets and briquettes Next Biorefineries: pulp, energy, chemicals Liquid and gaseous fuels

12 Production and consumption of wood pellets Pellet Production (1000 tons) North American Production North American Consumption European Consumption Other Consumption Total Consumption Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review,

13 UNECE region = Europe + N. America + CIS Source: Worldmapper

14 UNECE roundwood harvests trends Europe Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER Database, 2009.

15 Forest resources growing stock Billion m s 10 0 Europe (41) North America CIS Growing stock Net annual increment Fellings Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000

16 Net annual growth vs fellings Billion m Europe (41) N. Am erica CIS Net annual increment Fellings Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000

17 Forests increasing in UNECE region Central Europe Nordics & Baltics Northwest Europe Southeast Europe EU 27 Russia North America Fellings as % of annual growth 61% 72% 53% 45% 60% 34% 80% Sources: State of the World s Forests, 2007 and UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment

18 Increasing forests & increasing demands Increasing demand for paper and paper products, e.g. packaging Increasing demand for wood products Increasing demand for wood energy = competition! Where will wood come from?

19 III. Consumption and production

20 World shaped by political boundaries Source: Worldmapper

21 World shaped by population Source: Worldmapper, 2009

22 World shaped by forest products production Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009

23 World shaped by wood and paper consumption Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009

24 As shaped by forest products exports Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009

25 As shaped by forest products imports Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009

26 Amount (in million cubic metres WRME) Western European wood and fiber requirements through 2020 Recovered paper Net pulp imports Industrial roundwood Total wood and fibre requirement Growing demand without energy Gap is residues Year Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005

27 Industrial roundwood consumption Million m Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

28 Industrial roundwood production Million m Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

29 Sawnwood consumption 250 Million m Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

30 Sawnwood production 250 Million m Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

31 Panels production Million m Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

32 Panels consumption Million m Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

33 Paper & paperboard consumption Million metric tons Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

34 Paper & paperboard production Million metric tons Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Source: FAOStat, 2010

35 What happens when supply does not equal demand? IV. Trade

36 Global trade all products Doubled in 6 years Source: FAOStat, 2010

37 Global roundwood exports Globally exports = imports in value and volume, but not in direction! Europe leads in roundwood exports (including within Europe) Source: FAOStat, 2010

38 N. American roundwood exports USA increasing roundwood exports Source: FAOStat, 2010

39 CIS roundwood exports, mainly Russia Trend reversal in 2008 Log export taxes Global economic crisis Source: FAOStat, 2010

40 African and Asian roundwood exports Rising despite policies to encourage value-added processing Source: FAOStat, 2010

41 North American exports Housing crisis Source: FAOStat, 2010

42 2.5 US housing starts, Million units Source: APA The Engineered Wood Association,

43 Impacts of US housing crisis Global economic crisis (a cause) Massive restructuring of N. American wood industry (unemployment) Local communities devastated Long-term consequences for forest sector

44 European exports 2x in 10 years Source: FAOStat, 2010

45 CIS exports, mainly Russia 4x in 10 years Log export taxes Source: FAOStat, 2010

46 Exporting primary vs secondary Primary (logs, sawnwood, panels, pulp) are commodity products Easy to export Correspond to market price Secondary, value-added products Higher value and profits Require greater manufacturing and marketing skills

47 Secondary-processed products exports Source: FAOStat, 2010

48 China is the motor! Based on domestic and imported roundwood World s largest exporter of wooden furniture and other secondary-processed products 5x in 10 years, no downturn in 2008 Source: FAOStat, 2010

49 Paper products exports Source: FAOStat, 2010

50 Panel exports Source: FAOStat, 2010

51 Sawn softwood exports Source: FAOStat, 2010

52 V. Trade conclusions Global timber trade doubled over last decade Greatest increase in secondary-processed products Slowdown in 2008, 2009 with global economic crisis China became largest roundwood importer and largest secondary-processed products exporter Trade barriers distort markets Export taxes, subsidies, tariff and non-tariff Intentionally for national reasons Consequences for partners forest sector

53 VI. Discussion

54 Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section 448 Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland Telephone Fax

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