THE DELOITTE CFO SURVEY 2015 Q2 RESULTS PATH TO GROWTH

Transcription

1 THE DELOITTE CFO SURVEY 2015 Q2 RESULTS PATH TO GROWTH

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3 Contents Key points from the 2015 Q2 Survey 4 Economic context 5 The economy and CFOs outlook 6 Funding 7 Cash flow and risk 8 M&A 9 A note on methodology 10 Contacts 10 The Deloitte CFO Survey 2015 Q2 Results 3

4 Key points from the 2015 Q2 Survey 54% believe that now is a good time to be taking greater balancesheet-related risks. Risk appetite at an all-time high An all-time high of 54 percent of CFOs say that now is a good time to be taking greater balance-sheetrelated risks, while 46 percent is still risk-averse. 68% expect turnover to grow. Positive sentiment about revenues Some 68 percent of CFOs expect their company s revenues to increase over the next 12 months an indicator of growth. Improved operating margins are expected by 44 percent of CFOs. 75% expect cash flows to increase. Cash flows to increase The percentage of CFOs who believe that their company s operating or free cash flows will increase over the next 12 months now stands at 75 percent (up from 67 percent). Some 46 percent (from 30 percent) even expect an increase of more than 10 percent. 63% will realize an acquisition. Growth through acquisitions CFOs remain bullish on the M&A market: 88 percent say that corporate M&A activity will increase. About 63 percent of CFOs say that their company will realize one or more acquisitions in the next 12 months. 48% say to attract new credit. CFOs will attract new credit Some 48 percent of CFOs say that they are going to attract new credit in the next 12 months and 43 percent will renew current credit. 4

5 Economic context Traffic congestion is sometimes used as an indicator for the economic situation in a country. After years of decline, traffic jams on the Dutch roads increased in length and duration by 12 percent over the past three months, according to Rijkswaterstaat, which is part of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment. This implies that the Dutch economy is growing, a fact that is confirmed by National Statistics (CBS). In the first three months of 2015, the Dutch economy grew for the fourth consecutive quarter. The growth rate was 0.4 percent on the previous quarter. Year-on-year, economic growth was 2.4 percent, primarily due to higher investments, more exports and more household consumption. In June 2015, the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis forecast the Dutch economy to grow 2.0 percent and 2.1 percent this year and in 2016 respectively. Earlier, CPB forecast growth rates of 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent. The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) have also given 2 percent forecasts for DNB however, forecast a modest slowdown to 1.8 percent in Improving economic conditions will result in an increase of employment. CPB stated that employment will grow by 0.9 percent in 2015 and 1.5 percent next year. According to National Statistics, there are now 617,000 unemployed. This figure will fall to 600,000 in The NEVI Purchasing Managers Index reported its strongest improvement for 18 months. June s PMI was 56.2, up from 55.5 in May. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5 (from 52.2 in May), with Spain, Italy, Ireland and the Netherlands being the strongest performers. In fact, all countries registered growth, except for Greece. Despite the threat of a Greek default, economies in the Eurozone have grown by 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the previous quarter. Spain and France experienced strong growth rates of 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent respectively. The Greek economy contracted by 0.2 percent, according to Eurostat. Although the Eurozone gross domestic product is still 1.5 percent below its pre-crisis level, the European Union as a whole rose above the level at the start of 2008 when the credit crisis started. The US economy however is now almost 10 percent above the level of the beginning of 2008, after strong economic growth in the past years. Eurostat reported that Euro area annual inflation was 0.3 percent in May 2015, up from 0.0 percent in April. A year earlier the rate was 0.5 percent. It also reported that the unemployment rate in the Eurozone was 11.1 percent in May, compared to 11.6 percent a year earlier. The unemployment rate in May was 6.9 percent. CPB expects the Dutch deficit to decrease to 1.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, and to 0.8 percent next year. The Deloitte CFO Survey 2015 Q2 Results 5

6 The economy and CFOs outlook The lowest reading in two years: some 46 percent of CFOs rate the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business as above normal compared to 89 percent two years ago. This implies that 54 percent of CFOs perceive the uncertainty associated with the current external situation as normal, or below normal. The percentage of CFOs that are optimistic about the financial prospects for their company decreased from 52 percent to 42 percent. This is slightly below the two years average of 44 percent. Chart 1. Economic uncertainty and business confidence Percentage of CFOs who rate the level of economic uncertainty as above normal and percentage of CFOs feeling optimistic about financial prospects When looking at revenue expectations that characterize the next 12 months, the sentiment is positive. Some 68 percent of CFOs expect higher revenues, up from 65 percent in the previous quarter, an indication that growth remains on the agenda Level of uncertainty Business confidence The outlook on operating margins is different. Only 44 percent of CFOs expect that operating margins will improve over the next 12 months, while 33 percent believe that operating margins will remain at the current level. For both metrics, around one fifth of CFOs expect a decrease. Chart 2. CFOs outlook on revenues and operating margins Expectation of key metrics for CFOs company to change in the next 12 months % 22% 11% 68% 33% 44% Revenues Operating margins Increase No change Decrease 6

7 Funding Bank borrowing is now seen as the most attractive source of funding, according to a net percentage of 64 of CFOs. Corporate debt fell from 64 percent in 2015 Q1 to 41 percent now. Chart 3. Favoured source of corporate funding Net percentage of CFOs reporting the following sources of funding as (un)attractive Due to low interest rates, some 48 percent of CFOs say that they are going to attract new credit, a significant increase compared to last quarter, when only 23 percent said to do so. This is a sign that companies are willing to invest and are amongst others looking for funding to realize growth. Equity is still seen as the least favoured source of corporate funding. Unattractive Attractive Bank borrowing Corporate debt Equity Renewing current credit is on the agenda of 43 percent of CFOs (down from 54 percent). Issuing equity is not on CFOs top of mind: only 13 percent say to issue equity, which is albeit almost double the score of last quarter and the highest reading in 18 months. Chart 4. Likely to issue debt/equity? Percentage of CFOs who are (very) likely to issue debt/equity over the next 12 months Renew current credit Attract new credit Issue equity The Deloitte CFO Survey 2015 Q2 Results 7

8 Cash flow and risk Decreasing uncertainty about the financial and economic situation has coincided with a continued increase in risk appetite. Some 54 percent of CFOs say that now is a good time to be taking greater balance-sheet-related risks the highest level since the start of this survey in 2009 Q1. Chart 5. Risk appetite Percentage of CFOs reporting that now is a good time to be taking greater balancesheet-related risks Some 75 percent of CFOs believe that their companies operating or free cash flows will increase over the next 12 months. A third believe that cash flows will increase between percent (2015 Q1: 19 percent) and 29 percent expects an increase between 1 10 percent (2015 Q1: 37 percent). The percentage of CFOs who expect a decrease in cash flows was down from 15 percent last quarter to 4 percent. Chart 6. Change in cash flows over the next 12 months Percentage of CFOs who expect their companies operating or free cash flows to increase/decrease over the next 12 months Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Decline Remain unchanged Increase by 1% 1 Increase by 11% Increase by more than Any increase 8

9 M&A CFOs remain bullish on the outlook for mergers and acquisition activity. Some 83 percent of CFOs expect private equity activity to increase over the next 12 months. This is above the two years average of 78 percent. The outlook on corporate M&A decreased somehow from 96 percent to 88 percent, but the percentage of CFOs who expect a significant increase in strategic takeovers almost doubled from 7 to 13 percent. Chart 7. M&A outlook Net percentage of CFOs who expect M&A activity to increase/decrease in the next 12 months Strategic M&A Private equity No less than 63 percent of CFOs expect their company to realize one or more acquisitions in the next 12 months, an indicator for growth. Joining a partnership lost attraction with only 25 percent of CFOs who expect to complete one, versus 48 percent last quarter. About 25 percent of CFOs say that their companies will divest assets and/or subsidiaries. Chart 8. Likeliness of M&A activity at a CFO s company Percentage of CFOs who expect their company to be involved in a M&A transaction over the next 12 months Acquire Divest Partnership The Deloitte CFO Survey 2015 Q2 Results 9

10 A note on methodology To enhance readability not all survey questions will be reported in each quarterly survey. Survey questions will be selected in response to the current financial economic situation. If you wish to receive information about non-reported questions, please contact us. The Deloitte CFO Survey is also executed by other Deloitte countries, for instance the UK. Comparisons will be made when relevant. Some of the charts in the Dutch Deloitte CFO Survey show the results in the form of a net balance. This is the percentage of respondents reporting, for instance, that bank credit is attractive minus the percentage stating that bank credit is unattractive. This is a standard way of presenting survey data. Due to rounding answers may not total 10. The 2015 Q2 survey took place between 2 June 2015 and 26 June A total of 25 corporate CFOs completed our survey, representing a net turnover per company of approximately EUR 2.4 billion. The responding companies can be categorized as follows: publicly listed (52%), privately owned (12%), family owned (8%), private equity portfolio company (8%), state or government owned (4%), other (8%), unknown (8%). Contacts Jan de Rooij Partner Deloitte Core Audit CFO Program Lead Partner JandeRooij@deloitte.nl +31 (0) Wilten Smit Managing Partner Deloitte Financial Advisory Services WiSmit@deloitte.nl +31 (0) Harm Drent Manager Research & Market Intelligence HDrent@deloitte.nl +31 (0) We would like to thank all participating CFOs for completing our survey. We trust the report will make an interesting read and highlights the challenges facing CFOs. We also hope it provides you with an important benchmark to understand how your organization compares to your peers. Karen van Schie Deloitte Press Officer KvanSchie@deloitte.nl +31 (0) Author: Harm Drent (@hdrent69), Deloitte Research 10

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