Climate and socio-economic impact analysis in the Vistula Lagoon

Transcription

1 Climate and socio-economic impact analysis in the Vistula Lagoon Małgorzata Bielecka, Grzegorz Różyński, Małgorzata Robakiewicz, Mariusz Zalewski, Aleksander Drgas, Chubarenko Boris, Sokolov Andrey, Kileso Aleksander

2 2nd largest lagoon in the Baltic Sea

3 Vistula Lagoon Area: 838 km2 (Russia 56%, Poland 44%) Length: 90 km Width: km Avr. depth: 2.7 m Total drainage area: 23,871 km2 Salinity: PSU Water volume: 2.3 km3 Avr. retention time: 6 months Largest rivers within the drainage area: Pregola, Prokhladnaya, Elbląg, Pasłęka, Nogat, Bauda Connection with the Gulf of Gdańsk: narrow, dredged channel near Baltiysk (Russia)

4 Problems in the area The Lagoon is an important component of European ecology: the Polish part belongs entirely to Natura 2000 regions. Eutrophication is the major ecological problem despite waste water treatment; probable source: recycling nutrients from sediments. Fisheries problems - difficult to harmonize. Inadequate and unsynchronized monitoring of physical and chemical/environmental parameters persists.

5 Cormorants: a pressing issue Almost extinct before, nowadays the Lagoon hosts the largest colony of cormorants in Europe. Damage to juvenile fish and forests is done by excessive number of cormorants. There is a need for setting a threshold for cormorants.

6 Problems in the area High unemployment, low population density, isolation of Polish part are the major socio-economic and political problems. For the Polish and Russian governments the lagoon is of low priority. Cooperation between the Spit and southern coast in PL is faulty: there is little common interest as Spit residents base life on the Baltic Sea related tourism.

7 Vistula Lagoon is an area of high economic potential: due to touristic values (historical cities, beautiful landscape, lots of options for recreation: sailing, windsurfing, swimming, hiking, biking, etc.) Kąty Rybackie Frombork But poor management of the area, low investment, local conflicts, bureaucracy, long decision making process, nature protection regulations, isolation, decreasing population prevent its sustainable development.

8 Two FP 7 projects cooperating in the Vistula Lagoon area: LAGOONS and ARCH Common activities focus on stakeholders participation joint workshops contributing to SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS How it was done?

9 Focus Groups to identify most accute problems of the area from a perspective of local communities. Frombork: Fishermen, hotel and gastronomy operators, teachers, Piaski: Fishermen and hotel operators Kadyny: Citizens and local authority Krynica Morska: Fishermen Result: combined map indicating best and worst areas.

10 Citizens Jury as a next step allowing to refine insights and to formulate recommendations and scenario of future lagoon development. Jurors from: Krynica Morska Piaski Braniewo Frombork Kadyny

11 Experts: Quality of the Vistula Lagoon environment Problems of the Vistula Lagoon fisheries, Problems of agriculture in the Vistula Lagoon region, Regulations and management in the Vistula Lagoon region, Transport and infrastructure in the Vistula Lagoon (maritime aspects), Environmental protection of the Vistula Lagoon, Tourism and recreation in the Vistula Lagoon region.

12 Citizens scenario of the Vistula Lagoon development in the next 20 years Fisheries will decline due to uncontrolled growth of the population of cormorants and lack of funding for stocking the Lagoon with juvenile fish. The water quality of the Lagoon will improve due to: 1. deepening of navigational channels, 2. construction of waste water treatment plants 3. development of ecological agriculture and agrotourism, 4. improvement of fertilization and agricultural production control and inspection.. Cooperation between residents and authorities, decision makers and other interest groups will improve

13 Construction of the cross-cut through the Spit will not be implemented because of lack of funds and insufficient need for its erection; Water-related tourism will develop as one of key engines of local economy and major sources of income for local residents. Cycling route around the Lagoon will be built as an instrument of development of tourist infrastructure; it will also run on future storm embankments (dikes). Developing international tourism will result in closer collaboration with the Kaliningrad Region; visa-waiver scheme will be extended, common cycling routes will be built. Harbor and sailing infrastructure will develop. Alternative transportation connections to the current major routes will emerge,

14 Recommendations for future development and management of the Vistula Lagoon region: Sustainable ornithological management setting a threshold of the number of cormorants. Systematic and intensive fish stocking of the lagoon (eel). Deepening and widening of navigational channels to improve navigation; improvement of water quality. Refurbishment of the existing storm and flood embankments and dikes, construction of new such facilities to reduce the flood risk. Repair and refurbishment of fishing harbors in the Lagoon. Protection of Lagoon s harbors from silting-up by erection of eco-friendly structures (breakwaters).

15 Recommendations for future development and management of the Vistula Lagoon region: Cross-cut construction as a chance for faster region development. More efforts to advertise local tourism offer and the region itself. Creation of new tourist products. Installation of webcams in the most attractive locations of environmental observations. Construction of new roads and alternative ferry links to the Vistula Lagoon towns. Repair of existing roads to improve connections.

16 Recommendations for future development and management of the Vistula Lagoon region: Modification of regulations hampering development of tourism (mainly NATURA 200 related). Simplification of frontier crossing procedures with the Kaliningrad Region, also by navigation. Establishment of instruments/mechanisms supporting diversification of jobs in order to reduce unemployment in the region. Further actions aimed at improvement of water quality. One institution responsible for management of the Vistula Lagoon and its coastal infrastructure.

17 Based on analysis of focus groups and citizen jury results 4 main socio-economic scenarios have been developed:

18 CLIMATE IMPACT ANALYSIS examples

19 Climate change scenarios have been proposed (ENSAMBLES A1B) Scenario Time period A1 A A A A2 A A3 A A Selected climate year CLIMATE CHANGE 1990 Description of scenario Typical reference Extreme even (hot summer) Extreme even (cold winter) Storm (extreme wind velocity, selected wind direction, extreme precipitation, high river discharges) 2039 Typical year for period Extreme event (cold winter) Typical year for period Hot summer in period Storm (extreme wind velocity, selected wind direction, extreme precipitation,

20 River discharge by SWIM model

21 River discharge seasonally

22 Open boundary- Baltiysk ECOSSUPORT

23 Wind conditions Baltiysk ECOSSUPORT

24 Salinity calculated by Delft 3D in

30 Nutrients distributions MIR-5, N-NH4 NH NH ,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 MIR-5, N-NO3 AN-1, N-NO3 NO NO m -3] [g m -3] [g NH ,2 0 2 NH ,3 0,1 4 AN-1, N-NH4 0,6 m -3] [g m -3] [g 0,6 NO NO3-2039

31 Nutrients distributions MIR-5, P-PO4 PO ,12 0,12 0,09 0,09 0,06 0, MIR-5, Chl-a Chl-a m -3] [g m -3] [g AN-1, Chl-a Chl-a PO ,06 0, PO ,15 m -3] [g m -3] [g AN-1, P-PO4 PO ,15 Chl-a-1990 Chl-a-2039

32 Conclusions Yearly average river discharges in typical historical year (1990) and in the far future year (2081) are slighly lower than in the near future (2039) Continous salinity decrease in the South Baltic sea is forecasted As a consequence mean yearly salinity decrease in the Vistula Lagoon is forecasted Riverine water inflows related to nutrient loads showed the greatest impact on phytoplankton development. Main limiting factors for phytoplankton development are phosphorus during springtime and nitrogen during summertime and autumn.

33 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS examples

34 Managed Horizons 1: main assumptions in the lagoon model Delft 3D Dredging of navigational channels: main channel up to 4.5 m, and up to 3.5 m at harbour approach channels on Polish side only; Climate typical for the reference period (typical year of 1990 selected); River discharges and nutrient loads computed by SWIM model according to climate and socio-economics in the reference typical year; Open boundary conditions as in the typical reference year (ECOSSUPORT project);

35 Managed Horizons 1 Present bathymetry Bathymetry after dredging Polish part only: main channel 4.5 m other channels 3.5 m

36 Baltiysk Strait Managed Horizons

37 Managed Horizons 1 salinity comparison

40 Managed Horizons 1 Salinity distribution when extremes where observed Before dredging After dredging

41 Managed Horizons 1 MIR-5, N-NO3 NO AN-1, N-NO3 NO3-1990m PO4-1990m 0 MIR-5, P-PO4 AN-1, P-PO4 PO ,15 PO4-1990m 0,15 0,12 0,12 0,09 0,09 m -3] [g m -3] [g PO ,06 0,06 0,03 0, MIR-5, Chl-a AN-1, Chl-a Chl-a Chl-a-1990m m -3] [g m -3] [g NO3-1990m 3 m -3] [g m -3] [g 3 NO Chl-a-1990 Chl-a-1990m

42 Conclusions Dredging navigation channels in the Polish part of the Vistula Lagoon does not change salinity patterns; only very small salinity increase can be observed locally limited to the dredged areas. Dredging of navigation channels in the Polish part of the Vistula Lagoon does not affect salinity patterns in the Russian part of the lagoon. However, in the far end of the Polish part salinity decrease is observed. There is no significant effect on nutrient and phytoplankton levels.

43 Managed Horizons 2: main assumptions in the lagoon model MIKE DHI software Plans for deep water harbour development in the Russian part of the Vistula Lagoon; Climate typical for the reference period (typical year of 1990 selected); River discharges and nutrient loads computed by SWIM model according to climate and socio-economics in the reference typical year; Open boundary conditions as in the typical reference year (ECOSSUPORT project);

44 Managed Horizons 2: main assumptions in the lagoon model MIKE DHI software 18 m m New navigation canal and harbour Depth - 18 m Width: bottom 250 m surface 500 m Harbor area 4 km2

45 Salinity increase in the central part and tiny decrease in the lateral (Polish and Russian) parts of the Lagoon A nnual av erag e s alinity along the Vis tula L ag oon 6 5 S ainty, ps u R eference conditions (1990) 1 New C anal and Harbour (1990) 0 P8 P 10 P6 P2 R8 R7 R6 R 10 R3 R2 R1 Monitoring sta tions

46 Next steps The modelling results will be translated into possible responses of the lagoon community (citizens and managers) in terms of adaptation to expected climate and environmental changes in the lagoon. LAGOONS project will develop science-based strategies and decision support frameworks for the integrated management of lagoons. ARCH project will propose Implementation plan for the Vistula Lagoon which will be delivered to VL managers.

47 THANK YOU!

48 The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/ under grant agreement n