Landscale to Regional Scale Concerns About Human Well-Being in the Context of Global Change: Approaches to Problem Solving

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1 Landscale to Regional Scale Concerns About Human Well-Being in the Context of Global Change: Approaches to Problem Solving John Tenhunen Department of Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences

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3 Millenium Ecosystem Assessment Perspective: New Need for Coupling and Transdisciplinarity Earth s Natural Systems Human Well-Being Alcamo J et al Ecosystems and human well-being. Island Press, Washington, pp 245

4 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences With the Age of Enlightenment humans were extracted from the environment. The separation of nature and society became a foundational principle of Western thought and provided the organizational sstructure for academic departments. Since that time, Western thought has oscillated between positions in which nature and society were treated as distinct entities, and one in which articulations between the two were examined. I.J. Davidson-Hunt and F. Berkes 2003 in Navigating Social-Ecological Systems

5 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences One of the anomalies of modern ecology is the creation of two groups, each of which seems barely aware of the existence of the other. One studies the human community, almost as if it were a separate entity, and calls its findings sociology, economics and history. The other studies the plant and animal community and comfortably relegates the hodgepodge of politics to the liberal arts. The inevitable fusion of these two lines of thought will constitute the outstanding advance of the present century. Aldo Leopold, Berlin 1935

6 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences Landscale to Regional Scale Concerns About Human Well-Being in the Context of Global Change Problem Solving Will Require Us to Put It Back Together. A problem of scale, focus and complexity A question of flexibility and willingness A dilemma of dedication BUT, New Experimental and Program Designs will contribute to problem solving related to global change and tight links between education and environmental policy.

7 Objectives: Alterred Climate Extreme Events Shifts in Land Use Socio-economic Development Discourse Change and Decision-making? Change in Ecosystem Services Anticipatory Adaptation with Reduced Risk Added Gain Vulnerability, Increased Risk

8 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences Framing the Problem Conceptual View Clearly we need natural science tools! These are directed at Ecosystem Services

9 Water Quality Water Yield C-Balance and TG Emissions Erosion Control Crop Production Performance: Forested Catchment Forest Production Pollination Agricultural Catchment Herbivory Regional Mean Ecosystem Services as Estimated from a Suite of Models How do we evaluate change and future potentials?

10 The adaptive renewal cycle of social-ecological systems. An important perspective on problem solving extreme case? Holling, C.S Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social Systems. Ecosystems 4:

11 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences Whether exploitation or reorganization, the science tools are the same: MODEL HIERARCHIES AND DATA BASES TO SUPPORT LANDSCAPE OR REGIONAL ANALYSES in natural and social sciences plus techniques for integration of the two. Why landscape? Big enough to be relevant small enough to be real... e.g., real data, real integrative measures, specific problems, and single cultural context.

12 The Tools Must Allow for a Paradigm Transition: Decision-Making and Policy Structure (adapted from Pahl- Wostl et al. 2007) Required Educational Support Structure Business as Usual: Prediction and control Centralized hierarchical governance Narrow or no stakeholder participation Separate sector analyses leading to policy conflicts Single scale focus and analysis Fragmented understanding and proprietary information Centralized infrastructure Disciplinary science Exposure to model evaluations Examination of sensitivities to limited driver variables New Paradigm Orientation: Integrated adaptive regime Polycentric and horizontal structure in governance Broad stakeholder participation Cross-sectoral analysis and integrated policy implementation Multiple scale analysis Comprehensive understanding and integration of information Decentralized infrastructure Transdisciplinary education Broad training in modelling Complex scenario development and study

13 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM SOLVING IN RELATION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND TRANSITION TO THE NEW PARADIGM IN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT REQUIRES A TRANSDISCIPLINARY COMPONENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION, TRAINING AND RESEARCH

14 TIES: Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences Existing Land and Resource Use International Networking and Summer Schools Case Studies as a Bridge to Education, Training and Social Learning Integrated Ecosystem Studies Modelling of Ecosystem Services Social Analysis of Decision Making Social Geography and Economics Alterred Management - Restoration Vulnerability Assessment Alterred Management - Restoration Evaluation of Services Projections and Global Change Scenarios Policy Modification And Feedbacks Master Level Doctoral Level Social-Ecological Analysis

15 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences What types of case studies would we learn from? Perhaps there are two levels in complexity? Example 1: Correlative Vulnerability Assessments (Endangered Species and Multi-species Planning) Example 2: Social-Ecological Analyses (TERRECO) Learning by doing in social-ecological systems!

16 Correlative Vulnerability Assessment: Multi-species Habitat Conservation Plans (MSHCPs( MSHCPs) Rate of Development Requires Immediate But Science-based Problem Solutions

17 Correlative Vulnerability Assessment: MSHCP Multi-species Habitat Conservation Plans Human Systems Indicators Air quality Ground and surface water quality Sedimentation Hazardous materials Solid waste Land use and urbanization Per capita water use Human population density Energy use Solid waste generation GRP per capita Ecosystem Services Gas regulation Climate regulation Disturbance regulation Water regulation Water supply Erosion control Soil formation Nutrient cycling Waste treatment Pollination Biological control Refugia Food production Raw materials Genetic resources Recreation Cultural expression

18 Multi-species Habitat Conservation Plans As an Exercise in Discourse Local Governments: Control of planning Definition of issues Developers: Certainty in permits Clear ground rules Reduction of risk Role for Expert Knowledge: Assembly of Data Bases indicators, species records, habitat characteristics, etc. Advise during Implementation Review Status Environmentalists: Regional preservation Avoid fragmentation Ecosystem management

19 Greater science input is desired but it may be a shot in the dark!!!

20 CGT + 1 o F (2030)

21 CGT + 3 o F (2080) But the ecosystems and additional actions are uncertain!

22 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences Social-Ecological Analysis of Ecosystem Services: Atmosphere Climate Intensive Land Use and Production Soil Solution DOC, N and P Exchange Trade-offs Interactions and Impacts Related to Human Well-Being Reservoir Water Quantity and Quality

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24 Riverine N Flux Compared to Pre-industrial Korean fertilizer application according to Kim B. et al.: 1980 = 230 kg ha -1 yr = 450 kg ha -1 yr -1 Plus imported animal feed

25 Complex Terrain and Ecological Heterogeneity (TERRECO) - A question requiring social-ecological analysis Inflow rate (m 3 sec -1 ) Haean-myun Catchment, Yanggu OutflowGun, Soyang Korea Lake Reservoir TP (mg m -3 ) Springtime Fertilization J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND Monsoon Sediment Transport

26 Comparison of export coefficients from agricultural land in different watersheds (kg yr -1 km -2 ) Watershed TN TP Reference The North Han River The South Han River The Kyung-an Stream Standard export coefficient of paddy field Standard export coefficient of dry field The Palmi-ri Stream (paddy field watershed) The Palmi-ri Stream (dry field watershed) Lee et al.(2001) Korean Ministry of Environment(1996) Shim(1998) The Young-san River Cha et al.(1999) Virginia, USA Ritter(1988) The Mandae Stream in 2003 The Mandae Stream in This study This study From Kim, B. et al. 2007

27 Social-Ecological Analysis: TERRECO Critical Ecosystem Services in Mountain Regions Human Systems Indicators Air quality Ground and surface water quality Sedimentation Hazardous materials Solid waste Land use and urbanization Per capita water use Human population density Energy use Solid waste generation GRP per capita Ecosystem Services Gas regulation Climate regulation Disturbance regulation Water regulation Water supply Erosion control Soil formation Nutrient cycling Waste treatment Pollination Biological control Refugia Food production Raw materials Genetic resources Recreation Cultural expression

28 TERRECO Focuses on a Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Ecosystem Services Evaluations via: Water Quality Water Yield C-Balance and TG Emissions Statistical Models Process-based Models Erosion Control Crop Production Phenomenological Models Physically-Based Models Forest Production Herbivory Trade-offs in Production vs. Water Yield and Water Quality Pollination Performance: Forested Catchment Agricultural Catchment Regional Mean

29 Institute of Geography, CAS September 18, 2009 Transdisciplinarity in Environmental and Social Sciences The critical question to focus on within the science community is - How do we evaluate change and future potentials?

30 Performance of Ecosystems Capacity Building with Basic Data Social Ecological Framework Water Quality Water Yield C-Balance and TG Emissions Regional Demographic Structure Provincial Political Framework (Policies) Erosion Control Crop Production Regional Land Use Forest Production Herbivory Pollination Local vs. Expert Knowledge (Management) Economic Development Forested Catchment Step I Step II Agricultural Catchment Regional Mean Social Ecological Analysis A Focus on Scenario Evaluations Transition between Current Evaluations and Future Projections Development of Scenarios: Future Climate and Land Use Current Performance Economic Framework Climate Regulatory Regime Nature Perception Altered Ecosystems Objective Discourse Agent-Based Modelling More Natural Land Use More Intensive Land Use Probabilities?

31 Hulse DW, Branscomb A, Payne SG (2004) Envisioning alternatives: using citizen guidance to map future land and water use. Ecological App. 14:

32 TERRECO - Alternative Futures Methodology While there are variants, alternative future projects have four common parts: (1) defining future scenario assumptions, (2) depicting spatially explicit alternatives through land and water allocation models using parameters from scenario assumptions, (3) modeling the effects of alternative land and water use patterns on key natural and cultural resources (termed evaluation modeling), and (4) producing synthesis products which characterize the differences between the alternatives. Hulse DW, Branscomb A, Payne SG (2004) Envisioning alternatives: using citizen guidance to map future land and water use. Ecological Applications 14:

33 Stakeholder Involvement in a Citizen-Guidance Futures Approach 3 Testing 1 Designers 2 Technical Input Politically plausible scenarios, scientifically researchable alternatives, and capacity for community based environmental planning! Hulse DW, Branscomb A, Payne SG (2004) Envisioning alternatives: using citizen guidance to map future land and water use. Ecological Applications 14:

34 Hulse DW, Branscomb A, Payne SG (2004) Envisioning alternatives: using citizen guidance to map future land and water use. Ecological Applications 14:

35 Evoland Model Explore-and-Test Methodology Polygon-based GIS maps Spatially explicit landscape patterns and attributes Parameter value probability distributions A range of potential outcomes, but the question is plausibility Hulse DW, Branscomb A, Enright C, Bolte J (2008) Anticipating floodplain trajectories: a comparison of two futures approaches. Landscape Ecology, DOI /s

36 The Long-term Vision for Social-Ecological Analyses Ecosystem Management Desired Awareness of Social-ecological System Complexity, e.g., Potential for Adaptive Governance Transdisciplinary Management Practitioners Graduate Training Stakeholder Participation Adaptive Management and Policy Tuning Assessment of Scenarios Sensitive to Climate, Policy, Economics and Culture Transdisciplinary Scenarios of Future Land Use Current Regulatory Regime Management Transdisciplinary Design of Evaluation Tools Policy and Implementation Overall Goal: Sustainable Ecosystem Services Under Global Change Land Use at Different Scales Role of Agencies And Stakeholders Cultural Perceptions, Economics and Technology Transdisciplinary Environmental Science Education Role of Educational Institutions and Research

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