Brownsburg Housing Study Overview

Transcription

1 Brownsburg Housing Study Overview Presented to: Town of Brownsburg Presented by: Matt Mullins Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC July 14, 2016

2 Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Overview 30+ years experience Diverse client base Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC is a full-service real estate advisory company providing strategic value to our private and public sector clients real estate activities. Multi-Sector Capable residential commercial public + private entities Market driven strategies Recommending highest & best uses Provide actionable plans

3 Project Scope OBJECTIVE Provide custom comprehensive housing study APPROACH Identify current & future housing needs for residents in Brownsburg and provide framework for meeting housing needs PROJECT DELIVERABLES Short and long-term housing needs Recommendations guiding future housing development Tools/policies to implement the plan KEY DATES Data collection: 3 rd and 4 th Quarter 2015 Draft: September 2015 Revisions: Jan Presentation: July 14, 2016 Final: TBD

4 Purpose Housing Study Objective The Brownsburg housing study will: Identify existing and future housing needs for Brownsburg residents that will prove a framework for future housing development. Develop basis for community leaders, stakeholders, and decision-makers to guide future efforts of the community when addressing housing needs. Solicit interest & streamline the housing development process

5 End User Benefits Guide policy making decisions Assist the Comprehensive Planning process Assists area banks and lending-institutions to streamline the financial component Solicit interest from builders/developers and help streamline the process Help raise funding for housing and community development programs Better define the relationship between housing and economic development Create framework for accommodating future growth Help deliver strategic housing priorities

6 Comprehensive Housing Study Components Demographics Development Pipeline Housing Programs Employment For-Sale Market Analysis Housing Demand Analysis Household Characteristics Housing Affordability Challenges & Opportunities Rental Market Analysis Senior Housing Market Analysis Recommendations

7 Deep-dive into Property Types GO Rental Housing Affordable Subsidized Market rate Senior Housing Subsidized/affordable Active adult Congregate Assisted living Memory care Skilled Nursing For-Sale Single-family Multifamily Residential Lot Supply

8 Market Area Defined as: Brownsburg 3 Townships o Lincoln o Middle o Washington Market Area will account for about 75%+ of Demand

9 Households Population High growth community Historic Findings Population Projections Brownsburg last decade Population +6,765 (46.6%) Households +2,582 (48.1%) Market Area last decade Population +13,281 (48.8%) Households +4,820 (49.6%) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Remainder Brownsburg 23,815 19,200 12,684 21,285 26,750 14, Year Projections ( ) Increase projected over the current decade Brownsburg Population +5,465 (25.7%) Households +2,077 (26.1%) Market Area Population +10,080 (24.9%) Households +3,689 (25.4%) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Household Projections Remainder Brownsburg 8,198 6,586 4,348 10,025 7,948 5, Year

10 Highest growth rates among 55+ population Growth across all demographics Middle-aged (35-54) cohorts largest adult demographic in Brownsburg today (29%) Children = largest age group (26%) 55+ age cohorts growing fastest Household types (Brownsburg): Increase in all HH types last decade Married w/children = 29% Married w/o children = 29% 22% of households live alone Household size is decreasing: 2000: : : and over 75 to to to to to to to 24 Under 18 Brownsburg Age Distribution Pct. Change % 5% 10% 11% 11% 11% 17% 19% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 85% Home ownership rate (2010) 92% Remainder of Market Area 78% Brownsburg 70% Indiana 66% Indy Metro Area

11 Sound Household Incomes Median Income (2015): $67,868 Brownsburg $75,674 Market Area $54,884 Indianapolis Metro Area $50,189 Indiana Projected increase by 2020: +14.8% to $77,927 (Brownsburg) +10.1% to $83,310 (Market Area) $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- $67,868 $77,927 $38,919 Median Income by Age of Householder Town of Brownsburg: 2015 & 2020 $47,877 $61,889 $71,368 $88,775 $99,042 $81,817 $91,332 $77,285 $84, Total < $55,376 $62,239 Highest earners between age cohort (2015) $88,775 Brownsburg $95,665 - Market Area 2015 Median income (Brownsburg) Non-seniors: $77,406 Seniors: $61,479 Income disparity by tenure (Brownsburg) $75,195 (owner) vs. $42,054 (renter) $36,900 $40,849

12 Brownsburg is a job exporter Unemployment Rate Employment Hendricks County: Lower than Indiana s unemployment rate (3.8% April 2016) Key Hendricks Co. Industry Sector Jobs: 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Retail Trade: 20% Transportation and Warehouse: 14% Annual Average Resident Unemployment Rate Hendricks County, Indiana, and Metro Area 2000 to 2015 Hendricks County Indiana Metro Area Brownsburg is an exporter of workers 7,560 workers came into Brownsburg while 10,147 workers left -2,587 net job loss Avg. annual wages (2013) Hendricks County: $36,192 Metro Area: $46,488 Hendricks Co. highest in the construction sector: $50, % 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 00' 01' 02' 03' 04' 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 10' 11' 12' 13' 14' 15' Year

13 Slowdown in housing starts since recession Units New Construction Activity American Community Survey (2013) 4,000+ housing units constructed in Brownsburg ( ) Avg. 254 units/year o : 350 units/year o : 195 units/year 75% of all new units were SF homes 50% of all MF permitted in Residential New Construction (Units) Town of Brownsburg (US Census) Multifamily Single-family Newer Housing stock (Brownsburg): 65% built since 1990s Single Family Detached: 95% of all owner-occupied housing structures 78% of Brownsburg owners have mortgage (68% Indiana) Year

14 Tight rental market Overall 1,126 units 12 projects 1.3% vacancy rate Market Rate 792 units 8 projects 0.9% vacancy rate Avg. monthly rents: 1BR: $703 2BR: $794 3BR: $976 4BR: $1,125 Est. price per sq. ft. $0.85 New construction: $1.00 PSF Subsidized 334 units 4 projects 2.1% vacancy rate 5% Vacancy = Market Equilibrium

15 Multiple Factors Driving Rental Demand Recessionary impacts on For-Sale Market Displaced owners Stricter Underwriting Lack of Supply Demographics Millennials Baby Boomers Unwed HH growth Renters by Choice Lifestyle renters Urban living High-income renters fastest growing High student debt Economy Positive Job Growth Low unemployment rate (3.5%) Millennial HH formation Favorable Financing Lender Competition Capital flows into Apt. Sector LTV improvements Strong Indy Metro Area Metrics 4+ years of over 2,000 units delivered in Metro Area High yields attracting coastal investors

16 Rental Housing Trends Unit Mix Renters are trading square footage for amenities 50%+ are studio and 1BR units only 7% had 3BR or more Median size continues to trend down (-10% since 2007) Micro-apartments..newest fad in urban markets Hotel-like Amenities Tenant demand for over-the-top amenities o Community spaces, mobile-friendly, docking stations, outdoor kitchens, on-demand fitness, pet friendly, etc. Outlook Growing household formations Demographic growth Millennials & Boomers Robust fundamentals/metrics Secondary markets continue to emerge Single-family rental opportunities

17 Housing Cost Burden Cost Burden: more than 30% of gross income allocated to housing Rental: 45% of Brownsburg renters are cost burdened 42% Hendricks Co. 50% Indiana 88% of renter HHDS > $35k are cost burdened 86% Hendricks Co. 77% Indiana Owners: 18% of owners are cost burdened 21% Hendricks Co. 21% Indiana 39% of owners HHDS > $50k are cost burdened 54% Hendricks Co. 43% Indiana 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% Cost Burdened All Renter HHs Renter HHs <$35k All Owner HHs Owner HHs <$50k 87.7% 88.2% 85.8% 81.1% 77.1% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 44.9% 39.1% 45.8% 42.4% 41.8% 54.0% 50.6% 51.1% 50.2% 42.9% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 17.5% 17.9% 21.3% 22.6% 21.2% 0.0% Brownsburg Market Area Hendricks County Indy Metro Area Indiana

18 Newer senior housing inventory Brownsburg Senior Inventory 390 units 7 projects 314 market rate units 76 subsidized units Brownsburg Senior Housing Units by Type Subsidized 76 Memory Care 71 Assisted Living 154 Independent Living 23 Adult Rental

19 Sales Price Resales Home prices peaked in 2015 Overall Strong market activity past 3+ years Housing metrics all positive over past year (days on market, PSF pricing, etc.) Low inventory Recessionary impacts didn t hit Brownsburg as hard as most communities Resales Median sales price: Peaked in 2015: $162,000 PSF: $91 (2015) Lowest in 2009: $132,250 Resales peaked in 13: 653 Single-family: Nearly all resales $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100, Brownsburg Housing Resales to 2015 Resales Median Sold Price $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $ Year

20 # of Listings Supply Side inventory dwindling Active Listings (May 2015 vs. July 2016) Listings: 222 vs. 151 Median price: $211,800 vs. $238k 95% of listings are for SF housing Avg. Price Per Sq. Ft. Single-family: $85/PSF Condos: $100/PSF PSF by type: One-story: $93/PSF Two-story: $79/PSF Brownsburg Area Active Listings - May 2015 vs. July 2016 May-15 Jul Under $100k $100k to $149.9k $150k to $199.9k $200k to $249.9k List Price $250k to $299.9k $300k to $399.9k $400k+

21 Home inventory shrinking across the U.S. Source: Trulia

22 Year New Construction pricing escalating... Overall Trends New construction priced lower than many submarkets, but New construction pricing up +20% over the past 2 years Avg. price (2016): $305,000 Strong demand: $200k - $300k Avg. New Construction Pricing in Brownsburg Area: (1Q) New subdivisions assessed values: Avg. lot value: $52k Home value w/lot: $266k+ Avg. lot to home ratio: 19.5% Avg. PSF costs: One-story: $114 PSF Two-story: $90 PSF 16* $237,158 $217,809 $221,020 $240,474 $256,068 $251,399 $244,869 $228,684 $194,238 $187,768 $170,402 $170,962 $172,476 $163,134 $305,280 $297,631 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 Price

23 Production builders dominate Closings Top 10 Pct. 75% of Brownsburg SF homes constructed by four builders (2015): Cal Atlantic (formerly Ryland) Pulte Arbor Homes M/I Homes Top 10 Builders Market Share by MSA 6,000 5,000 4, % 52.5% 50.5% 59.3% 77.7% 66.6% 79.6% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 3, % 50.0% 40.0% 2,000 1, % 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% MSA

24 Lot inventory & Subdivisions Developed Lots Lot Inventory/Supply About 420 vacant developed lots 75% of vacant lots in 6 subdivisions 800+ lots in undeveloped subdivisions Months supply is low given demand <$175k Brownsburg Area Lot Inventory: 1Q 2015 vs $175k to $225k $225k to $275k $275k to $325k $325K to $425k Avg. Home Price 1Q Q $425K to $625k Most Active Subdivisions 6 subdivisions = 91% of new homes $625k to $925k Subdivision Name 1Q Q 2016 Branches Hession Fields Highland Springs/Greens 24 0 Jefferson Park 3 12 Maple Grove Condos 4 13 Windridge Landing $925k+

25 Demand Summary Demand Overview Household growth & tenure Turnover Income-qualified households Demand by product Preferences Demand Driver Examples Demographics Economy & Job Growth Consumer Choice Preferences Turnover/Mobility Supply (i.e. Existing Hsg. Stock) Replacement need (i.e. functionally /physically obsolete) Financing Demand Assumptions/Methodology Household growth adjusted for local factors (i.e. building permits, etc.)

26 Demand for 2,900+ General-Occ. units through 2025 For-Sale - MF 602 For-Sale - SF 1,601 Rental - Subs. 178 Rental - Aff 200 Rental - Market ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Units

27 Demand for 550+ senior housing units by 2020 Adult - Owner Adult - Rental Congregate Assisted Living 23 Memory Care Affordable Subsidized Units

28 Single-Family Development Recommendations Demand for 2,100+ homes; Absorb existing lot supply Vacant developed 400+ lots Future lots 800+ Demand for 1,600+ single-family homes after existing lots have been absorbed Demand for entry-level, move-up, & executive homes

29 Multifamily For-Sale Development Recommendations Demand for 600 units Recommend a variety of housing types & all price points Potential housing types: Twin homes/duplex Townhomes/row homes Quads Detached townhomes Condominiums Maple Grove Condominiums Twinhome example

30 Rental Housing Recommendations Demand for 750+ units 377 market rate 200 affordable 178 subsidized Demand for all incomes, HH types, and product types Recommend the following types: Market rate rental both apartment & townhome style Affordable rental both apartment & townhome style Subsidized - difficult to finance Broadstone Pointe Heritage Hill

31 Senior Housing Recommendations Demand for 566 units Demand across all service-levels Recommend the following: Senior cooperative (60-70 units) Active adult rental (50-75 units) Independent/congregate (125 to 150 units) Assisted living (20 to 25 units) Memory care (40 to 50 units) Subsidized (30 to 35 units); but difficult to finance Bailey Park of Brownsburg Brownsburg Meadows Campus

32 Key Takeaways Continued strong population and household growth this decade Growth in all age cohorts; but 55+ population growing fastest (as a Pct.) HH incomes +20% higher than Indy Metro Area avg. Low 3.8% unemployment rate job exporter more jobs = higher housing demand Strong rental market low vacancy rates pent-up demand lack of product Senior housing market poised for strong growth especially independent product For-sale market at peak positive metrics lack of supply New construction market active & pricing escalating Developed lot supply dwindling; but future lots should meet demand Need for more association-maintained for-sale housing

33 Final Thoughts Affordability: Indianapolis Metro Area is among the most affordable housing cost metros in U.S. Brownsburg residents receive a lot of housing value for their $$ Image: Brownsburg is an attractive community and should continue to brand the image Housing Stock: Encourage promotion of housing programs to enhance existing housing stock Retail Leakage: Brownsburg lacks retail; substantial retail dollars spent outside of community Infrastructure: Infrastructure/transportation improvements will be needed to alleviate congestion while promoting residential and commercial development

34 Questions & Comments Contact Information: Matt Mullins Maxfield Research Inc