Commercial/Industrial Market Analysis for Scott County, Minnesota

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1 Commercial/Industrial Market Analysis for Scott County, Minnesota Prepared for: Scott County Community Development Agency Shakopee, Minnesota February Nicollet Mall Suite 218 Minneapolis, MN 55403

2 February 17, 2012 Mr. William Jaffa Executive Director Scott County Community Development Authority 323 South Naumkeag Street Shakopee, Minnesota Dear Mr. Jaffa: Attached is a draft copy of our Commercial/Industrial Market Analysis for Scott County, Minnesota. The study examines employment data, building permit trends, SCALE parcel data, and market conditions in order to estimate excess demand for commercial and industrial acreage in Scott County from 2012 to The study reveals the amount of commercial and industrial space Scott County is expected to expand between 2012 and 2020, albeit at a slightly slower pace than estimated absorption from the 2006 study. Over the course of this decade we find approximately 1,500 acres are needed to accommodate projected growth. Presently there is enough Class I pad ready land to accommodate this demand through 2015, however Class II property will be need to be brought up to Class I (pad ready) meet this need through In order to reach Scott County s 2030 goal to employ 50% of the County s labor force in Scott County, approximately 19,000 jobs would need to be added today. Based on industry standards, Scott County would likely need about 650 acres in order to meet employment goals. We appreciate the opportunity to perform this market analysis and look forward to your feedback. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Matt Mullins Vice President Amanda Janzen Research Analyst Attachment (fax) Nicollet Mall, Suite 1218, Minneapolis, MN

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 Study Purpose... 1 Population Analysis... 1 Employment Analysis... 1 New Construction Commercial and Industrial Building Permits... 2 Market Analysis... 3 SCALE Summary... 7 Conclusions and Recommendations... 8 PURPOSE AND SCOPE Study Purpose Study Scope EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Introduction Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections Employment Growth Trends Covered Employment Wages by Industry Resident Employment Resident Education Levels Commuting Patterns Major Employers Establishments Industrial Establishments by Number of Employees Impact of Employment Trends BUILDING PERMIT ANALYSIS Introduction Building Permit Trends MARKET ANALYSIS Introduction Industrial Market Conditions Office Market Conditions Retail Market Conditions Land Market Conditions Commercial Broker Interviews Industrial/Commercial Outlook Impact of Market Conditions... 74

4 SCALE OVERVIEW Introduction SCALE Summary Data Acreage by Parcel Size and Class SCALE Classification by Submarket SCALE Submarket Breakdown SCALE Summary by Parcel Size and Market Value Acreage by Land Use SCALE Summary INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS Introduction Infrastructure Analysis Mass Transit CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction Estimates of Employment per Acre Employment Density Jobs to Labor Force Projected Demand for Office Space Projected Demand for Retail Space Projected Demand for Industrial Space Projected Demand for Commercial/Industrial Land Demand Summary vs. SCALE Supply Demand Comparison Commercial/Industrial Recommendations Online Marketing Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development ACRONYMS AND DEFINITIONS Employment Terms Lease Terms

5 LIST OF TABLES Table Number and Title Page A 1 Population Growth Trends and Projections, Scott County, A 2 Household Growth Trends and Projections, Scott County, A 3 Employment Growth Trends and Projections, Scott County, A 4 Estimated Covered Employment By Industry, Scott County & Metro Area, A 5 Estimated Average Yearly Wage By Industry, Scott County & Metro Area, A 6 Resident Employment, Scott County, A 7 Educational Attainment for Residents 25 Years Old and Older, Scott County and 7 County Metro Area, 2000 & A 8 Scott County Commuting Patterns for Primary Jobs, A 9 Major Employers, Scott County, A 10 Establishments By Industry, Scott County, 2000 and A 11 Industrial Business Growth By Size of Business, Scott County, BP 1 Estimated Commercial/Industrial Building Permit Trends, New Construction BP 2 Building Permit Total, Five Year Increments, BP 3 Annual Average Permits Issued and Acreage Per Permit, Scott County, , , MA 1 Historical Industrial Vacancy Rates, Southwest Submarket, MA 2 Historical Industrial Vacancy Rates By Product Type, Southwest Submarket, MA 3 Vacancy & Absorption, Southwest Submarket, MA 4 Historical Industrial Rental Rates, Southwest Submarket, MA 5 Average Quoted Industrial Rental Rates (NET), Southwest Submarket, 2010 & MA 6 Actively Marketing Industrial Properties by Submarket, Scott County, October MA 7 Summary of Industrial Properties Currently Listed, Scott County, October MA 8 Office Vacancy & Absorption, Southwest Submarket, MA 9 Average Quoted Office Rental Rates (NET), Southwest Submarket, 2010 & MA 10 Actively Marketing Office Buildings, Scott County, October MA 11 Historical Retail Vacancy By Specific Use, Scott County, 2006 to MA 12 Rental Rates By Type of Center & Submarket, Twin Cities Metro, MA 13 Actively Marketing Retail Development By Submarket, Scott County, October MA 14 Actively Marketing Land Scott County, Carver County & 7 County Metro Area, Land Costs Per Square Foot & Acre, October MA 15 Sold Land Transactions in Scott County By Submarket, 2010 to MA 16 Land Absorption by Acreage, Metro Area,

6 S 1 SCALE Summary Data, Scott County, November S 2 SCALE Acreage By Parcel Class & Size, Scott County, November S 3 SCALE Classification By Submarket & Acreage, November S 4 Parcels By Acreage, Submarket & Class, November S 5 SCALE Summary By Parcel Size & Market Value, November S 6 Acreage By Land Use, November IA 1 Site Selection, Key Location Factors and Attributes IA 2 Infrastructure Investments, Scott County, CR 1 Estimated Employment Per Acre, Commercial/Industrial Zoned Industries CR 2 Average Employment Density, Square Foot/Employee CR 3 Employment Goals by Job Density, 2010 to CR 4 Projected Demand for Office Space, Scott County, 2010 to CR 5 Demand for Retail Space, Scott County, 2010 to CR 6 Projected Demand for Additional Industrial Space, Scott County, 2010 to CR 7 Projected Demand for Commercial/Industrial Land, Scott County, CR 8 Demand Summary with SCALE Acreage, Scott County, 2012 to CR 9 Summary of Commercial/Industrial Demand (Acres), Scott County, 2010 to CR 10 Long Term High Growth/High Pay Jobs, Metro Area, 2009 to

7 LIST OF MAPS Table Number and Title Page 1. Scott County Infrastructure Analysis SCALE Class I Countrywide Commercial and Industrial Areas SCALE Class II Countrywide Commercial and Industrial Areas SCALE Class III Countrywide Commercial and Industrial Areas

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Study Purpose Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by the Scott County Community Development Agency (Scott County CDA) to conduct an analysis of the Scott County commercial and industrial land supply. This study is an update of a previous assessment completed by Maxfield Research Inc. for the Scott County CDA in Population Analysis Scott County was the fastest growing county in Minnesota and one of the fastest growing counties in the United States during the last decade. Scott County added about 42,000 people during the 2000s, an increase of 46.3% Due to the economic downturn, population and household growth will be stagnant for the next couple of years, with greater growth after By 2020, it is projected that Scott County will have a population of about 164,000 people, up from about 133,000 people in Employment Analysis The following section examines employment growth trends for Scott County. Job growth is a key driver and indicator of potential demand for commercial and industrial space. Employment Growth Trends There were a total of about 42,300 jobs in Scott County in 2010, of which about 79% were located in Shakopee, Savage, and Prior Lake. The number of jobs in Scott County is projected to grow by 9,900 jobs this decade (+23.4%). This is higher than the Twin Cities Metro Area, which is projected to experience growth of 16% by Employed People Living in Scott County There is a large out migration of workers from Scott County. Only about 24% of Scott County residents in 2009 worked in Scott County. Of the 76% that commuted to jobs outside the County, the most commuted to jobs in Hennepin County (44%) followed by Dakota County (15%). MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 1

9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Residents in Scott County may commute to Hennepin County due to higher wages. The overall average wage in Hennepin County is $60,242, or approximately $20,000 higher than Scott County s average wage of $40,378. Major Employers The Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community is one of the largest employers in the County. They own and operate Mystic Lake Casino Hotel, Little Six Casino, Dakota! Sport & Fitness, Playworks, Dakota Convenience Store, Dakota Meadows RV Park and Campgrounds, Dakota Meadows Storage Facility, and The Meadows at Mystic Lake Golf Club. The largest employer in the County was Mystic Lake Casino with approximately 5,000 employees. Other top employers in the County include Valleyfair Amusement Park, Seagate Technology, and Shakopee School District. Establishments Overall, Scott County grew by nearly 905 establishments (+29%) between 2000 and Construction, Retail Trade, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industries had the largest number of establishments in both 2000 and New Construction Commercial and Industrial Building Permits The downturn of the economy had a significant impact on the commercial and industrial sectors. Scott County saw a drastic decline in the total number of new construction commercial and industrial building permits in the last ten years. There were 455 building permits issued between 2001 and 2005 compared to only 229 permits between 2006 and New commercial and industrial development in Scott County was concentrated in Shakopee. Between 2001 and 2011, Shakopee issued the most building permits each year, ranging from 11 to 39 permits per year. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 2

10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 120 Commercial/Industrial Building Permits and Acres Developed Scott County Building Permits Acres 250 Number of Building Permits Acres Year 0 Market Analysis Employment growth in Scott County often drives demand for commercial and industrial development. On the supply side, the following section analyzes office, industrial and retail market trends in Scott County. Industrial Market Conditions in the Southwest Submarket Absorption Over the past ten years the overall vacancy rate in the Southwest Submarket (where Scott County is located) has fluctuated from a low of 10.5% in 2005 to a high of 17.3% in However, the Twin Cities industrial market is showing signs of stabilization and is on a path of slow recovery. The Southwest Submarket posted the most positive absorption from 2010 to 2011 in the Metro Area. Among the three industrial product types, office warehouse has maintained the most consistent vacancy rate from 2002 to 2011, having ranged from 9.3% to 14.4%. Bulk Warehouse vacancy rates have fluctuated significantly from 6.1% to 27.9%. Office showroom vacancy rates ranged from 10.2% to 21.7% in the last decade. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 3

11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the Southwest Submarket, the three industrial product types absorbed nearly 290,000 square feet in the first half of Over the past year, absorption has been over 460,000 square feet. Lease Rates As illustrated in the table below, office showroom has the highest rents while bulk warehouse has the lowest. Office showroom rents are higher due to the high level of finishes versus warehouse space. The average common area maintenance (CAM) and taxes per square foot was $1.40 for bulk warehouse, $3.35 for office warehouse, and $3.68 for office showroom. AVERAGE QUOTED INDUSTRIAL RENTAL RATES (NET) SOUTHWEST SUBMARKET 2ND HALF 2010 & 1ST HALF 2011 Op. Expenses Warehouse Office Taxes & Taxes 1st Half 2011 Bulk Warehouse $4.07 $6.99 $0.83 $1.40 Office Showroom $4.88 $9.44 $2.11 $3.68 Office Warehouse $4.16 $8.55 $1.41 $3.35 2nd Half 2010 Bulk Warehouse $4.09 $7.04 $0.83 $1.41 Office Showroom $4.81 $9.37 $2.11 $3.66 Office Warehouse $4.16 $8.50 $1.43 $3.33 Sources: NorthMarq, Maxfield Research Inc. Properties Currently Marketing Industrial Space in Scott County Overall, Scott County has 26 properties with available space currently marketing as of October Combined, these properties are marketing 1.28 million square feet of space One half of the listings are located in Shakopee, while 35% of the properties are in Savage. Combined, these two communities account for almost 95% of the marketing square footage (Shakopee 70.5%; Savage 24%). There are no properties marketing in Belle Plaine, Elko New Market, or any of the townships. A total of four properties are listed for lease or for sale. The majority of industrial properties marketing are classified as bulk warehouse, while office warehouse make up the remainder. There are no office showroom properties actively marketing. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 4

12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Average lease rates range from $4.00 (warehouse) to $9.50 (office showroom) per square foot. Average operating expenses (CAM) are $1.07, while operating expenses are $1.55. Office Market Conditions Absorption Vacancy rates across the Metro Area have steadily increased since 2006 with the highest vacancies in However, the overall vacancy rate declined in the Southwest Submarket in In 2010, 20.8% of office space was vacant, decreasing to 18.4% in The declining vacancy rate was due to a positive absorption of over 264,000 square feet over this past year. The first half of 2011 posted the first positive absorption since 2007 prior to the Great Recession. Lease Rates As illustrated in the table below, Class A average rents peaked in 2009 at $15.80 per square foot, while both Class B and Class C rents peaked in 2007 ($12.30 and $10.30, respectively). The average common area maintenance (CAM) and taxes ranged from over $11.00 for Class A space, $9.77 for Class B space, and about $8.00 for Class C space. HISTORICAL OFFICE RENTAL RATES SOUTHWEST SUBMARKET 1st HALF Year Class A Class B Class C 2002 $15.10 $11.38 $ $14.73 $11.13 $ $14.54 $11.27 $ $14.89 $11.62 $ $15.33 $12.06 $ $15.78 $12.30 $ $15.53 $11.94 $ $15.80 $11.70 $ $15.20 $11.49 $ $14.69 $10.96 $6.91 Sources: NorthMarq, Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 5

13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Properties Currently Marketing Office Space in Scott County Overall, Scott County has 33 office properties marketing as of October Over 180,000 square feet of space is currently available in Scott County. Lease rates among properties actively marketing range from $6.00 to $34.00 per square foot. The median lease rate is $ The properties are distributed rather equally between for lease and for sale properties. Four of the properties are marketing either a for sale or for lease option. Additionally, nearly 80% of the properties are multi tenant buildings. Retail Market Conditions Absorption The vacancy rate in Scott County was 8.2% in 2011, up from 5.4% in Vacancy rates vary significantly based on the retail center type. The one regional center (Southbridge Crossing) posted a vacancy rate of only 1.4%; whereas community centers had a 5.1% vacancy rate, and neighborhood centers was 18.6%. Absorption was negative this past year ( 58,000 square feet) as vacancy rates increased. This is highly attributed to the significant spike in vacant space in the neighborhood sector, which had a negative absorption of over 82,000 square feet. Lease Rates Average lease rates in the Southwest Submarket ranged from approximately $17.20 to $20.34 per square foot, the highest of the four submarkets in the Metro Area. The average common area maintenance (CAM) and taxes were $4.05 and $4.88 per square foot respectively, also the highest among all four submarkets. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 6

14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RENTAL RATES BY TYPE OF CENTER & SUBMARKET TWIN CITIES METRO 2011 Avg. Net Rental Rates Avg. Avg. Location Low High CAM Taxes Submarket Northeast $14.16 $18.47 $3.60 $4.48 Northwest $14.52 $17.00 $3.59 $3.71 Southeast $15.02 $17.68 $3.22 $4.04 Southwest $17.21 $20.34 $4.05 $4.88 Twin Cities Metro Area Neighborhood $14.51 $17.00 $3.46 $3.96 Community $17.29 $20.18 $3.14 $4.40 Regional $18.69 $29.92 $6.48 $6.41 Mpls CBD $11.33 $32.58 $10.19 $3.89 Sources: Minnesota Shopping Center Association, 2011 Maxfield Research, Inc. Properties Currently Marketing Retail Space in Scott County Overall, Scott County has 25 retail properties marketing as of October Over 274,000 square feet is for lease in the County. Shakopee has 13 properties marketing over 189,000 square feet of space, about 70% of the County s inventory. Although Savage has 7 properties marketing, they combine for about 25,000 available (9% of the County s available square footage). Likewise, Prior Lake has only four properties marketing but makes up just over 20% of the inventory. Average lease rates among the properties actively marketing is just under $15.00 per square foot. Operating expenses average $3.43 and taxes average $4.67. SCALE Summary Maxfield Research compiled commercial/industrial land uses information based on data compiled from the Scott County Planning Department and Scott County Assessor s Office. The data was assembled to inventory parcels based on the readiness for future commercial/industrial development. Parcels are classified as follows: Class I: Property that is already platted and pad ready. Interior lot improvements have been completed and development only required building permit or site plan approvals. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 7

15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Class II: Property is guided and zoned for commercial/industrial use within the 2030 growth boundary or MUSA boundary. Public infrastructure is readily accessible to the property and has sufficient capacity to serve the development. Class III: Property is guided for commercial/industrial uses on locally adopted land use map. Combined, there are 633 parcels with over 8,100 acres identified for commercial or industrial development in Scott County. About 62% of the parcels are vacant, while about 48% have some type of structure on the premises. Class III properties account for nearly 50% of the parcels and 73% of the total acreage. Class I properties make up 7% of the total acreage, whereas Class II properties account for 20%. Class I pad ready site s make up 7% of the County s total acreage, yet account for 32% of total market value. Only eight Class I properties are larger than 10 acres, the median Class I size is just 1.8 acres. In the seven municipal jurisdictions, there is a combined 2,220 acres available. The City of Shakopee boasts about 750 acres, containing one third of the acreage within all of Scott County municipalities. Prior Lake has the second highest land holdings, encompassing 570 acres (26%). Shakopee has the largest inventory of pad ready sites (i.e. Class I), boasting over 290 acres. Prior Lake, Elko New Market, and Jordan all have between 50 and 60 Class I acres. Combined, these four communities account for 85% of the Class I inventory. Conclusions and Recommendations Jobs to Labor Force Scott County has a total of approximately 42,300 jobs. As a result, the County does not have enough jobs to employ the total labor force. Scott County can only employ 56% of the County s current labor force, and this assumes all residents would work in the County. Furthermore, only 23.7% of Scott County residents work in the County. In order to achieve a 50% capture from Scott County s labor force (2030 goal), the County would need to add approximately 19,000 jobs in Based on industry standards, Maxfield Research Inc. calculated a need for about 660 acres in 2010 in order to meet employment goals. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 8

16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SCALE data revealed an inventory of 540 Class I acres. Therefore, there is not enough land today to achieve the County s goal of a 50% labor force capture rate. Because of employment growth, acreage needs will increase significantly over the next two decades. Projected Demand for Office, Retail, and Industrial Uses Demand for commercial/industrial real estate uses was calculated based on projected employment and household figures and applying industry averages. The following table summarizes demand by product type over the next two decades. SUMMARY OF COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL DEMAND (ACRES) SCOTT COUNTY 2010 to Retail Office Industrial Total Note: Demand projections based solely on household growth and employment projections. Source: Maxfield Research Inc. Projected Demand for Commercial/Industrial Land Based on historical building permits and land absorption, we calculated demand for commercial and industrial zoned land between 2012 and After deducting the acreage currently marketing and planned in Scott County, we reach the projected excess demand for commercial/industrial land that could be developed in Scott County over this decade. The projected excess demand is the amount of additional commercial and industrial land that could potentially be absorbed in each submarket. Each submarket can capture a portion of this demand, depending on a multitude of factors such as site characteristics (e.g. land price, access, etc.), location and amount of commercial/ industrial zoned acreage, completion of infrastructure investments, and available incentives. Given the continued economic recovery and depressed real estate markets, the majority of demand will be for later part of this decade (2016+). Submarkets closer to the Metro core and with premium sites for commercial and industrial products will likely experience more development in the short term. Among cities, the amount of excess demand falls within a range. Shakopee shows the largest excess demand with 685 acres potentially absorbed between 2012 and New Prague (Scott County portion) displays the smallest amount of excess demand with 27 acres potentially absorbed during the eight year period. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 9

17 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Commercial and industrial land demand in the townships shows the potential to absorb about 470 acres this decade. However, the estimated excess demand is likely overstated and will not be realized this decade. In the short term, there is demand for approximately 290 acres through Currently there are 652 acres classified as Class I sites (pad ready), therefore there is ample shovelready sites in the short term. Additionally, each municipal submarket has enough Class I acreage to meet demand. Combined, there is enough Class I and Class II land (over 2,100 acres) to accommodate demand between 2012 and 2020 (1,506 acres). All of the communities have enough Class I and Class II land supply to meet this demand through SCALE ACREAGE Submarket Class I Class II Class III Belle Plaine Elko New Market Jordan New Prague Prior Lake Savage Shakopee Townships ,543.6 Total , , , , Scott County Portion Only Source: Maxfield Research Inc. DEMAND SUMMARY w/scale ACREAGE SCOTT COUNTY 2012 to 2020 Townships Shakopee Savage Demand Summary: 2012 to 2020 Submarket Prior Lake New Prague Jordan Elko New Market Belle Plaine Acres MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 10

18 PURPOSE AND SCOPE Study Purpose Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by the Scott County Community Development Agency (Scott County CDA) to conduct an analysis of the Scott County commercial and industrial land space. This study is an update of a previous assessment completed by Maxfield Research for the Scott County HRA in Study Scope The scope of this study includes: An analysis of employment, commuter shed, and economic growth trends and projections in Scott County between 2000 and 2030; A review of historical and current industrial, office, retail, and land market conditions in Scott County; Analysis of SCALE property data and outcomes; An examination of the commercial/industrial land supply and building permit trends in Scott County; A forecast of the commercial and industrial land absorbable in Scott County between 2012 and 2030; and High level recommendations on targeted industries and marketing. The report contains primary and secondary research. Primary research includes interviews with builders/developers, commercial brokers, County/City staff and others involved in the commercial/industrial market in Scott County. All of the market data on existing/pending developments was collected by Maxfield Research Inc. and is accurate to the best of our knowledge. Secondary data, such as U.S. Census data, is credited to the source and is used as a basis for analysis. Data was collected and analyzed for each city in the County as well as for two rural areas the high growth townships and the low growth townships. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 11

19 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Introduction The following section examines employment growth trends for Scott County. Job growth is a driver and indicator of potential demand for commercial and industrial space. The data from 1990, 2000 and 2010 is from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, while the 2020 projections were based on data supplied by Metropolitan Council with adjustments downward by Maxfield Research Inc. to account for the economic slowdown during the recession. The employment analysis and subsequent sections of this study organize data for Scott County overall and by the following submarkets: Cities High Growth Townships Low Growth Townships Belle Plaine Cedar Lake Township Blakeley Township Elko New Credit River Township Belle Plaine Township Market Jordan New Market Township Helena Township New Prague Spring Lake Township Jackson Township Prior Lake Louisville Township Savage Shakopee The map on the next page displays Scott County and its submarkets. Sand Creek Township St. Lawrence Township Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections Table A 1 and A 2 present population and household growth trends and projections for Scott County from 1990 projected to Included in the figures is the portion of New Prague located in Le Sueur County. The data from 1990, 2000 and 2010 is from the U.S. Census, while the 2020 and 2030 projections were based on data supplied by Metropolitan Council and recent housing construction trends along with the Minnesota Demographic Center for the portion of New Prague located in Le Sueur County. Maxfield Research Inc. adjusted projections from Metropolitan Council and the Minnesota Demographic Center downward based on the slowdown in the housing market during the recession. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 12

20 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Map 1 Scott County MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 13

21 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Population Change Census Projection Projection No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Cities Belle Plaine 3,149 3,789 6,661 8,400 11, , , , Elko New Market¹ ,110 6,400 10, , , , Jordan 2,909 3,833 5,470 6,550 8, , , , New Prague² 3,569 4,559 7,321 9,000 10, , , , Prior Lake 11,482 15,917 22,796 29,000 35,700 4, , , , Savage 9,906 21,115 26,911 32,700 38,900 11, , , , Shakopee 11,739 20,568 37,076 47,000 52,000 8, , , , Subtotal 43,204 70, , , ,300 27, , , , High Growth Townships Cedar LakeTwp. 1,688 2,197 2,779 3,050 3, Credit River Twp. 2,854 3,895 5,096 6,000 6,900 1, , New Market Twp. 2,008 3,057 3,440 4,000 4,700 1, Spring Lake Twp. 2,853 3,681 3,631 3,850 4, Subtotal 9,403 12,830 14,946 16,900 19,500 3, , , , Low Growth Townships Belle Plaine Twp , Blakeley Twp Helena Twp. 1,107 1,440 1,648 1,750 2, Jackson Twp. 1,359 1,361 1,464 1,500 1, Louisville Twp ,359 1,266 1,300 1, Sand Creek Twp. 1,511 1,551 1,521 1,600 1, St. Lawrence Twp Subtotal 6,452 7,485 7,678 8,090 8,990 1, , Scott County Total 59,059 90, , , ,790 31, , , , Metro Area Total 2,288,729 2,642,062 2,849,567 3,035,000 3,255, , , , , ¹ Elko and New Market merged in Population has been combined. ² Includes the portion of New Prague located in Le Sueur County Sources: U.S. Census, Metropolitan Council, Maxfield Research Inc. TABLE A 1 POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SCOTT COUNTY MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 14

22 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Households Change Census Projection Projection No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Cities Belle Plaine 1,092 1,396 2,362 3,000 4, , Elko New Market¹ ,259 2,000 3, , Jordan 1,042 1,349 1,871 2,300 3, New Prague² 1,329 1,694 2,711 3,400 4, , Prior Lake 3,901 5,645 8,447 11,000 13,700 1, , , , Savage 3,255 6,807 9,116 11,200 13,600 3, , , , Shakopee 4,163 7,540 12,772 17,000 19,188 3, , , , Subtotal 14,939 24,717 38,538 49,900 61,188 9, , , , High Growth Townships Cedar Lake Twp ,050 1, Credit River Twp ,242 1,662 2,000 2, New Market Twp ,146 1,350 1, Spring Lake Twp ,217 1,267 1,400 1, Subtotal 2,913 4,134 5,014 5,800 6,870 1, , Low Growth Townships Belle Plaine Twp Blakeley Twp Helena Twp Jackson Twp Louisville Twp Sand Creek Twp St. Lawrence Twp Subtotal 1,974 2,375 2,649 2,905 3, Scott County Total 19,826 31,226 46,201 58,605 71,378 11, , , , Metro Area Total 875,504 1,021,454 1,117,749 1,205,000 1,315, , , , , ¹ Elko and New Market merged in Households has been combined. ² Includes the portion of New Prague located in Le Sueur County Sources: U.S. Census, Metropolitan Council, Maxfield Research Inc. TABLE A 2 HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SCOTT COUNTY MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 15

23 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Scott County was the fastest growing county in Minnesota and one of the fastest growing counties in the United States during the last decade. Scott County added about 42,000 people during the 2000s, an increase of 46.3%. Growth accelerated from the 1990s primarily because available land for development closer to the core of the Twin Cities has diminished and the Bloomington Ferry Bridge opening in 1995 resulted in commuting to jobs in the southwest Twin Cities more convenient. On March 21, 2006 both the Cities of Elko and New Market passed a referendum to merge. The new city was named Elko New Market with the merger taking effect on January 1, Historical demographic data for 1990 and 2000 has been merged to reflect this change. The Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community (SMSC) has a strong presence in Scott County. It is currently estimated that the SMSC owns, in either trust or fee title, about 1,000 acres in Shakopee and 973 acres of land in Prior Lake. As a result, land for future development within the city boundaries is limited and will rely on annexing land in adjacent townships to accommodate future growth. Prior Lake has an Orderly Annexation Agreement with Spring Lake Township. This agreement will add approximately 3,000 acres to the City. Although the 3,000 acres was planned to be annexed by 2024, slowed growth is expected to extend the date of annexation. Given the slowdown in the housing market, the annexation of portions of Spring Lake Township is estimated to occur between 2020 and Shakopee has an Orderly Annexation Agreement with Jackson Township. This agreement includes the entirety of the Township but with no definite timeline. Shakopee may also consider annexing land within Louisville Township, but there is not an Orderly Annexation Agreement with Louisville Township. Belle Plaine also has an Annexation Agreement with Belle Plaine Township and Blakeley Township. Scott County s population is projected to increase from about 133,000 in 2010 to about 164,000 in Approximately 90% of this new growth is expected to occur in the incorporated cities. Scott County added about 15,000 households during the 2000s, and is projected to add about 12,400 households between 2010 and Since households represent occupied housing units, this growth translates into roughly the need for 12,400 housing units in the County this decade. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 16

24 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Scott County Household Growth Leaders, 2000 to 2010 Households City Change Shakopee 12,772 17,000 4,228 Prior Lake 8,447 11,000 2,553 Savage 9,116 11,200 2,084 Elko New Market 1,259 2, Belle Plaine 2,362 3, New Prague 2,711 3, The current downturn in the economy combined with a sharp reduction in home values has led to reduced demand for new housing for the past couple of years. Thus, we project that about 60% of the growth this decade will occur after 2015, with the remaining 40% occurring between 2010 and The higher rate of household growth compared to population growth in the County can be attributed declining household sizes (2.98 people per household in 1990, to 2.91 in 2000 and 2.87 in 2010). These rates are declining because of several factors, including the aging of the population, couples decisions to have fewer children than their parents, or no children at all, as well as an increase in single person households. Employment Growth Trends Table A 3 shows the total number of jobs by community from 1990 projected to The data from 1990, 2000 and 2010 is from the Metropolitan Council, while the 2020 and 2030 projections were based on data supplied by Metropolitan Council with adjustments downward by Maxfield Research Inc. to account for the economic slowdown during the recession. The Metropolitan Council computed the employment forecasts by projecting the region's share of national forecasted growth (from the Bureau of Economic Analysis). There were a total of about 42,300 jobs in Scott County in 2010, the majority of which were located in the following communities: Shakopee 18,807 jobs, 44.4% of the County Prior Lake 7,735 jobs, 18.2% of the County Savage 6,735 jobs, 15.9% of the County In 2009, Scott County was ranked 17 th by Money Magazine for experiencing the highest job growth in the Country, with 51.9% growth from 2000 to However, due to the economic downturn during the end of the decade, Scott County only had a net increase of about 6,600 jobs between 2000 and 2010, an increase of 18.5%. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 17

25 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS TABLE A 3 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SCOTT COUNTY Employment Change Metropolitan Council Projection Projection No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Cities Belle Plaine 931 1,428 1,939 2,800 3, Elko New Market¹ , Jordan 913 1,321 1,592 2,100 2, New Prague² 1,044 3,043 2,897 3,500 4,000 1, Prior Lake 3,000 7,972 7,735 9,500 11,000 4, , , Savage 3,180 5,366 6,735 8,500 9,500 2, , , , Shakopee 8,500 13,938 18,807 22,500 30,000 5, , , , Subtotal 17,681 33,316 40,052 49,600 61,900 15, , , , High Growth Townships Cedar Lake Twp Credit River Twp New Market Twp Spring Lake Twp Subtotal ,194 1,345 1, Low Growth Townships Belle Plaine Twp Blakeley Twp Helena Twp Jackson Twp Louisville Twp Sand Creek Twp St. Lawrence Twp Subtotal 535 1,582 1,065 1,265 1,500 1, Scott County Total 18,554 35,692 42,311 52,210 64,960 17, , , , ¹ Elko and New Market merged in Employment has been combined. ² Includes the portion of New Prague located in Le Sueur County Sources:Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 18

26 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS The number of jobs in Scott County is projected to grow by about 9,900 jobs this decade (+23.4%). This is higher than the Twin Cities Metro Area, which is projected to experience growth of 16% by In fact, The Metro Area lost nearly 44,000 jobs between 2007 and 2010 and lost about 73,500 jobs during this decade, according to data from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. During this period, Scott County was second lowest in the Metro Area in job loss ( 143 jobs) after Carver County ( 124 jobs). Among cities, Shakopee is expected to experience the largest employment growth between 2010 and Another 3,700 jobs are expected to be located in Shakopee by 2020, which represents an increase of approximately +19.6%. Covered Employment Table A 4 presents covered employment estimates for Scott County in 2000, 2005, 2010 and through 2 nd Quarter 2011 as well as employment projections for 2020 and Covered employment data comes from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development and is calculated as an annual average. Covered employment data does not include most farm jobs or self employed people. Each industry includes private and/or government jobs. It should be noted that the industries are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which revises the classifications every five years. The 2002 and 2007 revisions affected the Information and Public Administration industries in 2005 and are inconsistent with the 2000, 2010, and 2011 data. Projections for the number of industries are only available at the Metro Area level. Therefore, Maxfield Research Inc. calculated employment projections for Scott County based on 2020 and 2030 projections for the Twin Cities Metro Area and the ratio of Scott County jobs to the Metro Area. These numbers are adjusted to reflect land availability throughout the Metro Area. Scott County lost 633 jobs between 2005 and 2010, or 1.6%. In contrast, the Metro Area lost nearly 60,000 jobs between 2005 and 2010, or 3.8%. Between 2000 and 2010, the largest job losses in Scott County took place in Manufacturing ( 814 jobs), Construction ( 699 jobs), and Natural Resources/Mining ( 66 jobs). The largest job increases occurred in Education & Health Services (+3,184 jobs), Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (+1,675 jobs), and Leisure and Hospitality (+789 jobs). Between 2010 and 2020, there are no industries forecast to decline in employment. The largest growth is expected in Education & Health Services (+2,638 jobs), Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (+1,899 jobs), and Manufacturing (+984 jobs). MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 19

27 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS TABLE A 4 ESTIMATED COVERED EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SCOTT COUNTY & METRO AREA Annual Average Employment Change ¹ 2020² 2030² No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Scott County Natural Resources/Mining % % % % % % % % % Construction 3, % 4, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 3, % % % % Manufacturing 5, % 4, % 4, % 4, % 5, % 7, % % % 1, % Trade, Transportation, Utilities 5, % 7, % 7, % 7, % 9, % 11, % 1, % 1, % 2, % Information³ % % % % % % % % % Financial Activities % % % % 1, % 1, % % % % Professional & Business Services 3, % 3, % 4, % 4, % 4, % 5, % % % % Education & Health Services 4, % 6, % 7, % 7, % 10, % 13, % 3, % 2, % 3, % Leisure & Hospitality 8, % 5, % 9, % 8, % 9, % 11, % % % 1, % Other Services 1, % 1, % 1, % 1, % 2, % 2, % 7 0.4% % % Public Administration³ 1, % 6, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 3, % % % % Total 34, , , , , , , % 9, % 11, % Seven County Metro Area Natural Resources/Mining 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % % % % Construction 75, % 78, % 49, % 47, % 55, % 64, % 25, % 5, % 8, % Manufacturing 217, % 186, % 156, % 158, % 178, % 199, % 60, % 21, % 21, % Trade, Transportation, Utilities 341, % 327, % 294, % 292, % 325, % 360, % 46, % 30, % 35, % Information 3, % 44, % 40, % 40, % 42, % 45, % 37, % 1, % 2, % Financial Activities 126, % 136, % 130, % 131, % 142, % 155, % 3, % 11, % 12, % Professional & Business Services 263, % 244, % 248, % 251, % 285, % 322, % 15, % 37, % 37, % Education & Health Services 263, % 302, % 341, % 349, % 378, % 410, % 77, % 36, % 32, % Leisure & Hospitality 138, % 150, % 148, % 147, % 160, % 174, % 9, % 11, % 14, % Other Services 55, % 55, % 52, % 52, % 57, % 63, % 3, % 5, % 5, % Public Administration 60, % 63, % 67, % 65, % 72, % 79, % 6, % 4, % 7, % Total 1,549, ,593, ,533, ,541, ,702, ,880, , % 168, % 178, % ¹ 2011 data is through 2nd Quarter ² Projections based on MN Department of Employment and Economic Development ³ Change in NAICS classificiations skewed numbers 3.8% Sources: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development; Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 20

28 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS Wages by Industry Table A 5 displays average yearly wages by industry in Scott County, Hennepin County, and the Metro Area from 2006 through 2 nd Quarter Data is from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. The data does not account for number of full time versus part time workers. The average wage in Scott County increased from $37,908 in 2006 to $40,378 in 2011, or an increase of +6.5% (+1.3% annually). The Metro Area average wage rose from $48,100 to $54,496 in the same period, which is an increase of +13.3% (+2.6% annually). Overall, workers in the Metro Area take home a higher wage than workers in Scott County (about $12,000 more annually over the past five years). Maxfield Research Inc. also included Hennepin County wages since a large proportion of Scott County residents commute to Hennepin County for employment (see Table A 8 for more information). In 2011, the overall average wage is approximately $20,000 higher in Hennepin County than Scott County. In Scott County, the Professional and Business Services and the Manufacturing industry groups show the highest average wage during the six years. Workers in the Professional & Business Services industry group averaged a wage of about $62,000 in 2011, which is an increase of $6,240 (+11.2%) from Resident Employment Table A 6 presents resident employment data for Scott County from 2000 through Resident employment data is calculated as an annual average and reveals the work force and number of employed people living in the County. It is important to note that not all of these individuals work in the County. While Table A 3 showed that there were about 42,300 jobs in Scott County in 2010, Table A 6 shows that there were about 70,000 employed people in the County. This indicates that a large percentage of Scott County residents are commuting to jobs located outside of the County. This is further highlighted by worker commuting data shown in Table A 8. The unemployment rate has increased steadily since 2000, up from 2.6% to a peak at 7.6% in However, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.0% in 2010 and 6.0% in 2011, indicating economic recovery in Scott County. In addition, Scott County s unemployment rate consistently remained below that of the State of Minnesota between 2000 and MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 21

29 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS TABLE A 5 ESTIMATED AVERAGE YEARLY WAGE BY INDUSTRY SCOTT COUNTY & METRO AREA Annual Average Average Yearly Wage Change ¹ No. No. No. No. No. No. No. Pct. Scott County Natural Resources/Mining $40,664 $39,364 $39,780 $38,930 $45,604 $42,328 $1, Construction $49,868 $52,381 $53,560 $51,584 $52,208 $48,776 $1, Manufacturing $54,444 $56,524 $58,344 $57,096 $62,400 $58,604 $4, Trade, Transportation, Utilities $33,228 $33,748 $35,256 $34,372 $34,892 $35,412 $2, Information $49,660 $54,496 $22,880 $24,648 $25,636 $25,636 $24, Financial Activities $38,532 $39,260 $41,132 $39,000 $42,120 $41,626 $3, Professional & Business Services $55,848 $58,084 $62,712 $61,464 $65,260 $62,088 $6, Education & Health Services $34,008 $36,192 $35,984 $36,660 $37,128 $36,556 $2, Leisure & Hospitality $16,484 $16,640 $16,432 $16,172 $16,588 $16,146 $ Other Services $21,424 $23,244 $23,348 $24,492 $28,260 $26,052 $4, Government $36,244 $37,440 $38,740 $47,788 $41,028 $41,626 $5, Total $37,908 $39,000 $40,040 $39,468 $41,184 $40,378 $2, Hennepin County Natural Resources/Mining $30,264 $29,952 $39,572 $46,280 $52,676 $66,664 $36, Construction $57,356 $59,696 $62,764 $61,100 $60,528 $60,190 $2, Manufacturing $58,604 $60,996 $62,192 $62,452 $66,040 $67,444 $8, Trade, Transportation, Utilities $44,980 $48,204 $50,596 $48,672 $49,556 $50,830 $5, Information $67,600 $71,136 $70,512 $71,916 $75,400 $79,092 $11, Financial Activities $80,964 $89,804 $86,164 $83,200 $86,632 $102,050 $21, Professional & Business Services $65,208 $72,228 $80,184 $72,384 $77,376 $76,778 $11, Education & Health Services $43,420 $44,720 $44,408 $45,760 $45,552 $43,888 $ Leisure & Hospitality $21,580 $22,308 $23,192 $22,568 $31,252 $22,230 $ Other Services $30,992 $32,396 $32,656 $33,072 $31,148 $30,654 $ Government $49,556 $51,272 $53,768 $54,600 $54,184 $55,536 $5, Total $52,884 $56,524 $58,500 $56,368 $58,396 $60,242 $7, Seven County Metro Area Natural Resources/Mining $29,224 $29,536 $31,356 $32,708 $33,800 $38,220 $8, Construction $53,924 $56,524 $59,332 $58,396 $57,928 $57,356 $3, Manufacturing $58,812 $61,204 $62,088 $62,244 $65,572 $66,196 $7, Trade, Transportation, Utilities $40,716 $42,692 $44,460 $43,264 $44,200 $44,928 $4, Information $64,064 $67,600 $67,444 $68,276 $70,668 $75,504 $11, Financial Activities $71,708 $78,364 $76,908 $75,088 $78,156 $90,480 $18, Professional & Business Services $61,100 $66,716 $72,488 $56,680 $72,280 $73,580 $12, Education & Health Services $41,028 $42,588 $42,744 $43,836 $43,888 $42,432 $1, Leisure & Hospitality $18,252 $18,824 $19,500 $19,292 $20,228 $24,596 $6, Other Services $28,964 $29,588 $59,332 $30,000 $29,380 $29,380 $ Government $46,748 $48,464 $50,595 $51,896 $51,844 $53,040 $6, Total $48,100 $50,804 $52,364 $51,376 $52,988 $54,496 $6, ¹ 2011 data is through 2nd Quarter Sources: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development; Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 22

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