Shelter from the storm

Transcription

1 Shelter from the storm Gjensidige Initiation of Coverage Recommendation: SELL Target NOK Prepared by Analyst: Geir Kristiansen, Fondsfinans AS, tel: , This report was prepared by an analyst engaged by Fondsfinans AS, the Norwegian affiliate of Fondsfinans Inc., who is not registered as a research analyst with FINRA or subject to FINRA rules governing research. See page 31 of this report for Important Disclosure Information. 1

2 Too pricey insurance INVESTMENT CASE Gjensidige is a safe haven when falling oil price creates waves in the Norwegian stock market. However, the share has become pricy and we expect falling profitability the coming years due to the low interest rate environment and increasing competition. We rate the stock SELL with NOK 122 price target Profitable market leader - Utilize economy of scale to generate profitable growth in other Nordics and Baltic - Lowest cost ratio among seven large, Nordic peers - Challenged by smaller low-cost providers, possible threat from European insurers Low interest rates are challenging - Lower returns from the relatively low-risk investments portfolio - We expect about 4% investment return in our forecast horizon - Underwriting result from general (non-life) insurance has become the main contributor to profit Fully priced given our assumptions and company s guidance - Sustainable RoE of 16%, Gjensidige s long-term target is 15% - Long-term combined ratio of 90%, company s guidance is 90-93% - Dividend payout ratio close to 80%, guidance > 70% 2

3 Nordic insurance priced at premium VALUATION Peer group valuation consensus estimates Company Share Price P/E 14E P/E 15E P/E 16E P/B 14E P/B 15E P/B 16EYield 14E, % Yield 15E, % Yield 16E, % ROE 2014E ROE 2015E ROE 2016E Gjensidige Tryg Topdanmark Amlin AXA RSA Insurance Zurich Insurance Admiral Group Average Median P/B RSA AXA GJF Amlin Zurich TOP TRYG ADM Source: Bloomberg RoE Higher RoEs in the Nordic region give higher valuations - Consolidated markets in the Nordic region - Loyal customers due to low commoditization - Lower cost ratios due to 80% direct distribution vs 30% in EU 3

4 Fair value of NOK 122 per share VALUATION Valuation models Dividend discount model Target price Risk free interest rate 1.50 % DDM 50 % 107 Market risk premium 6.5 % P/B 50 % 125 Beta (adjusted) 0.77 Target price ex div. (aver) 116 Cost of equity 6.5 % Dividend Perpetual grow th 1.5 % Target price 122 Fair value per share 107 Fair value NOK 122 per share - Average of two models - Slightly stretched in a SOTP model P/B multiple model Sensitivity analysis on pricing Adjusted ROE 16.0 % P/B model Perpetual grow th rate Perpetual grow th 1.5 % Cost of equity 0.5 % 1.5 % 2.5 % Cost of equity 6.5 % 7.5 % Fair P/B multiple % Fair value per share % SOTP-valution model (NOKm) Net profit Multiple Value Insurance u-w result after tax (27%) 1, ,748 Pension and savings (27%) ,783 Online retail banking (27%) ,474 Investments (18%) 1, ,469 Other (140) 10-1,402 Group net profit 3,781 60,072 Per share (NOK) 120 Source: Fondsfinans research Sensitivity to sustainable RoE - 1%-point changes fair value by 6% Key assumptions - Sustainable RoE: 16% (target 15%) - Cost of equity: 6.5% - Perpetual growth: 1.5% 4

5 New capital strategy from 2014 Excess equity will be paid out as dividends CAPITAL STRATEGY - DIVIDENDS Dividend and payout ratio % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Ordinary dividend payout ratio of above 70% Stable dividends may imply payout ratio > 100% certain years % E 2016E 2017E DPS Payout ratio % Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research 0% Excess capital will be paid out as extra-ordinary dividends - NOK 4 in Possible capacity approx. NOK 1.5 in yearly e.o. dividends coming years - Assuming no change in regulations 5

6 Solvency II expected to be positive for the legal capital surplus - Minimum A rating from S&P remains key constraint CAPITAL STRATEGY - SOLVENCY Capital situation per (NOK bn) S&P A-rating is a constraint to dividend capacity - Required by some large customers - Required as reassurance company - Gjensidige Bank/Subordinated debt Legal perspective Interrnal perspective S&P perspective Capital requirement Capital surplus Tecnical buffer Stratecic buffer Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Solvency II uncertainty +/- NOK 3 bn - Risk reducing effect of deferred tax - + NOK 1-2 bn - Valuation of premium provisions - + NOK bn - Natural perils fund/guaranty scheme - - NOK 1.9/0.6 bn - Tax issues - -NOK bn Strategic buffer - Meet regulatory uncertainty - Support growth and acquisitions - Stabilize dividend over time 6

7 Broadening the scope of business BUSINESS OVERVIEW Contribution to pretax-profit 7,000 One of Norway s strongest brands 6,000 NOKm 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Other Investments Bank Pension and savings Underwriting result Almost 200 years of history in nonlife Other business areas are growing 7

8 Low cost distribution model DISTRIBUTION MODEL Distribution Low-cost distribution model - Direct distribution - Multi channel: Internet (16% of new customers), call centers and branches - Branch network reduced from about 200 to 36 the last 15 years Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Other channels: - Commercial Norway has 3% of customers/18 of premiums via brokers - Brokers and agents have a larger share of business outside Norway, particularly in the Baltic 8

9 Gjensidige focuses on the Nordic and Baltic markets NORDIC AND BALTIC PERSPECTIVE Nordic and Baltic regions Gjensidige - Net earned premiums 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Source: Gjensidige s E 2015E 2016E 2017E Norway Nordic Baltic 9

10 Will the cozy (near) oligopolies prevail? MARKET SHARES GENERAL INSURANCE Norway Sweden Other 28 % Gjensidige 25 % Gjensidige 2 % Other 18 % If 18 % SpareBank 1 10 % Denmark Gjensidige 6 % Codan (RSA) 12 % Alm. Brand 10 % Source: Gjensidige Other 30 % Tryg 14 % If 23 % If 6 % Tryg 19 % Topdanmark 17 % Baltics Folksam 16 % Trygg Hansa 16 % PZU 7 % Other 23 % RSA 23 % Länsförsikringar 30 % Gjensidige 7 % If 14 % Ergo 12 % BTA 14 % 10

11 Many players, few large close to oligopoly NORWEGIAN NON-LIFE SECTOR Norwegian non-life insurance companies Market shares in % Company If Skadeforsikring Storebrand Gjensidige Tryg SpareBank 1 Forsikring Jernbanepersonalets forsikring Codan Protector Forsikring KLP Skadeforsikring DNB Forsikring Nordea Danica Eika Forsikring Telenor Forsikring NEMI AIG Europe Oslo Forsikring Inter Hannover ACE European Group Frende Skadeforsikring KNIF Trygghet Forsikring Landbruksforsikring Møretrygd Troll Forsikring Euro Insurance LTD Skogbrand W R Berkley OBOS Skadeforsikring Vardia I ALT The Herfindahl-Hirscman index* - Norway = 1524; Moderately concentrated - Sweden > 1800; Highly concentrated** Strong underwriting results - Low competition - Attract new players *Sum of the square of individual market shares in % **As defined by US Department of Justice 11

12 Smaller insurance companies are growing GENERAL INSURANCE Market shares motor insurance 45 % 40 % 35 % 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % Source: FNO If Gjensidige SpareBank 1 Tryg Other Market shares P&L ex motor 45 % 40 % 35 % 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % If Gjensidige SpareBank 1 Tryg Other Small insurance companies are increasing market share - Cherry picking - Low-cost providers - Oligopoly gives strong margins in sector The break of the oligopolies - High margins may attract intl. players - The incumbents loose share to smaller, domestic players Gjensidige s market shares have stabilized recently 12

13 A growing General Insurance market in Norway GENERAL INSURANCE Lines of businesses Total market in excess of NOK 50bn Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research A growing market - 15 year average growth of 6.5% - 5 year average growth of 5.2% - Will grow with GDP in the long-run Motor insurance is 39% of the market, fire insurance is another 35% 13

14 Claims in Norway have grown at a slower pace than premiums GENERAL INSURANCE Losses in NOKm Non-life Claims grow at a slower pace than premiums - 15 year average growth of 4.8% - 5 year average growth of 2.8% Source: FNO Motor insurance is 38% of claims, fire insurance is another 35% 14

15 Warmer and wetter weather leads to moderately increasing number of claims WEATHER Monthly minimum temperatures (Oslo) Number of nature perils claims (Norway)* Monthly percipitation (Oslo) Number of water damages (Norway)* Monthly minimum temperatures (Oslo) Source: Norwegian Meteorological Institute 15 *Per November 2014 Source: Meteorologisk institutt, FNO

16 Split earned premiums GJENSIDIGE - GENERAL INSURANCE Private Commercial Nordic Source: Gjensidige Baltics 16

17 Combination of low combined ratio and stable market shares indicate strong risk selection and pricing skills GENERAL INSURANCE Avg. cost ratio % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 15.3 % 15.6 % 16.2 % 16.8 % 19.0 % 21.2 % 26.2 % 2.0 % 1.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 % -0.5 % -1.0 % -1.5 % -2.0 % -2.5 % Gjensidige has low combined ratio compared to major Nordic peers - Efficient distribution model - Local knowledge and big data - More efficient claims handling - Reduced costs per claim by 10% since 2011 Avg. claims ratio *Adjusted for comparability with Norwegian and Swedish GAAP Source, Protector Forsikring, Fondsfinans research 17 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 74.1 % 2013 %-point change since % 76.3 % 78.8 % 78.7 % 80.5 % 81.3 % Gjensidige has improved performance - Claims ratio 2014: 70.2% - Cost ratio 2014: 15.6% - Combined ratio: 85.9% vs 91.6% in 08-13

18 General Insurance Main profit contributor GENERAL INSURANCE General Insurance P&L General insurance total E 2016E 2017E Earned premiums, net 17,610 18,789 20,257 21,140 22,077 22,913 Grow th yoy % 0.5 % 6.7 % 7.8 % 4.4 % 4.4 % 3.8 % Claims incurred -12,171-13,434-14,227-15,520-16,249-17,184 Claims ratio 69.1 % 71.5 % 70.2 % 73.4 % 73.6 % 75.0 % Corporate centre Operating expenses -2,831-3,205-3,168-3,309-3,471-3,535 Cost ratio % % % % % % Gjensidige s targets toward 2018: Becoming the most customer oriented general insurer in the Nordic region Cost ratio: 15% Underwriting result 2,608 2,150 2,862 2,312 2,357 2,194 Grow th yoy % 84 % -18 % 33 % -19 % 2 % -7 % Combined ratio % 85.2 % 88.6 % 85.9 % 89.1 % 89.3 % 90.4 % Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Combined ratio: 90-93% - Assuming normal level of large claims - Lower than normal in 2014, higher in Assuming zero run-off gains - Av gains since 2008; about 2% - Av. gains since 2000: about 1% - Run-off gains in the medium term - 1% point change in combined ratio changes EPS by 4% 18

19 Private Norway Strong profitability GENERAL INSURANCE Private Norway P&L Private Norway E 2016E 2017E Net earned premiums 7,978 7,930 8,124 8,307 8,515 8,727 Grow th yoy % -1.3 % -0.6 % 2.4 % 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.5 % Grow th qoq % Claims incurred -5,312-5,467-5,469-5,938-6,131-6,372 Claims ratio 67 % 69 % 67 % 71 % 72 % 73 % Operating expenses -1,065-1,027-1,032-1,052-1,073-1,095 Cost Grow th -13 % -4 % 0 % 2 % 2 % 2 % Cost ratio 13.3 % 13.0 % 12.7 % 12.7 % 12.6 % 12.5 % Underwriting resultat 1,601 1,305 1,624 1,317 1,310 1,261 Grow th yoy % 35 % -18 % 24 % -19 % 0 % -4 % Combined ratio 80 % 82 % 80 % 84 % 85 % 86 % Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Low premium growth Focus on defending market leader status (market share 23.6%) - Gjensidige Foundation s customer dividend model is attractive both for private and corporate customers; in 2013 and 2014 approx. NOK 2bn distributed to general insurance customers, see page 29 Effective distribution model helps sustain a low, albeit increasing combined ratio in 2015 and

20 Commercial Norway The market leader must lead GENERAL INSURANCE Commercial Norway P&L Commercial Norway E 2016E 2017E Net earned premiums 5,747 7,022 7,338 7,521 7,709 7,902 Grow th yoy % 6.2 % 22.2 % 4.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % Grow th qoq % Claims incurred -4,151-5,208-5,350-5,615-5,853-6,158 Claims ratio 72 % 74 % 73 % 75 % 76 % 78 % Operating expenses Growth -5 % 17 % 3 % 2 % 2 % 2 % Cost ratio 12 % 12 % 12 % 11 % 11 % 11 % Underwriting resultat ,140 1, Grow th yoy % 127 % 11 % 15 % -9 % -6 % -13 % Combined ratio % 84 % 86 % 84 % 86 % 87 % 89 % Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Underwriting discipline - Utilize market leader position (27.8% market share) - Increase premiums to ensure good profitability when needed - Improve competitiveness in attractive segments Strong cost control We expect combined ratio < 90% 20

21 Nordic Growing market shares GENERAL INSURANCE Nordic P&L Nordic E 2016E 2017E Net earned premiums 3,448 3,326 4,272 4,591 4,924 5,318 Grow th yoy % -5.1 % -3.5 % 28.4 % 7.5 % 7.3 % 8.0 % Claims incurred -2,416-2,417-3,031-3,412-3,555-3,923 Claims ratio 70 % 73 % 71 % 74 % 72 % 74 % Operating expenses Grow th -10 % 0 % 26 % 11 % 2 % 2 % Cost ratio 16 % 17 % 17 % 17 % 16 % 16 % Underwriting resultat Grow th yoy % 516 % -27 % 55 % -27 % 45 % 2 % Combined ratio % 86 % 90 % 88 % 92 % 89 % 89 % Challenger - 7% market share in Denmark - 2% market share in Sweden Strong growth - Driven by increased market share - Increasing economies of scale 21 Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research

22 The Baltic Entering restructuring phase GENERAL INSURANCE Other regions P&L Baltic E 2016E 2017E Net earned premiums Grow th yoy % 10.4 % 16.9 % 2.4 % 37.9 % 28.8 % 4.0 % Claims incurred Claims ratio 67 % 67 % 72 % 77 % 76 % 76 % Operating expenses Grow th 3 % 6 % 9 % 48 % 33 % -1 % Cost ratio 29 % 26 % 28 % 30 % 31 % 29 % Acquisition PZU Lietuva (Lithuania) - Increase market share to 13% (7%) - Needs to be restructured - Drag on profit until 2018 Underwriting resultat Grow th yoy % 530 % 89 % -98 % % 37 % -28 % Combined ratio % 96 % 93 % 100 % 107 % 107 % 105 % Competitive market Growth in the Baltic region may be affected by the crisis in Russia 22 Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research

23 Pensions and Savings Focus on fund management PENSIONS AND SAVINGS Pensions and Savings - P&L NOKm E 2016E 2017E Earned premiums ,262 1,693 2,182 2,725 Grow th yoy % 28 % 33 % 40 % 34 % 29 % 25 % Claims incurred ,126-1,515-1,952-2,437 Claims ratio 84 % 86 % 89 % 89 % 89 % 89 % Operating expenses Cost Grow th 31 % 33 % -1 % 16 % 2 % 2 % Defined contribution products only - Fee based/no guaranteed return - Growing market - Low risk/low capital requirement Underwriting result Grow th yoy % 226 % 84 % -22 % -31 % -153 % 324 % Management income Net financial income Other income Other expenses Pre tax profit Grow th yoy % 21 % 173 % -13 % 125 % 58 % 41 % AuM 21,767 27,138 33,655 39,837 46,019 52,200 Grow th yoy % 23 % 25 % 24 % 18 % 16 % 13 % Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Fourth largest player with NOK 30bn under management Support 15% RoE target 23

24 Retail banking Cost-effective business model BANKING Retail banking P&L NOKm E 2016E 2017E NII NII margin, annualized % 2.74 % 2.63 % 2.37 % 2.26 % 2.19 % 2.09 % Net financial income ao Operating expenses Loss on loans Loss percentage 0.42 % 0.32 % 0.20 % 0.23 % 0.33 % 0.35 % Pre tax profit Cross-selling to general insurance retail customers - Not traditional bancassurance - 46% of bank customers are insurance customers Gross lending IB 15,019 17,324 24,194 27,547 30,577 33,023 Additions 2,305 6,870 3,353 3,030 2,446 1,981 Gross lending UB 17,324 24,194 27,547 30,577 33,023 35,004 Lending growth 15 % 40 % 14 % 11 % 8 % 6 % Deposits IB 9,776 11,581 12,953 16,703 18,540 20,209 Additions 1,805 1,372 3,750 1,837 1,669 2,021 Deposits UB 11,581 12,953 16,703 18,540 20,209 22,230 Deposit growth 18 % 12 % 29 % 11 % 9 % 10 % Deposits to loans ratio % 67 % 54 % 61 % 61 % 61 % 64 % C/I 69 % 62 % 58 % 55 % 51 % 50 % Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Cost-effective - Multi-channel distribution - Scalable model Support 15% RoE target 24

25 Investments Average performer, defensive portfolio INVESTMENTS Peers - Avg. investment return Gjensidige s investment return the last 5 years represents the median compared to Nordic peers 4.3% return in 2014 Gjensidige s investment return the last 5 years represents the median compared to Nordic peers Return per asset class E 2016E 2017E Equities 7.3 % 4.2 % 9.4 % 9.9 % 7.9 % 7.9 % Associated 9.2 % 9.7 % Money market 2.6 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 1.6 % 2.0 % 2.0 % Current bonds 5.6 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.8 % Bonds held to maturity 5.0 % 4.9 % 4.5 % 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.7 % Real estate 4.7 % 5.8 % 9.4 % 8.7 % 6.8 % 6.0 % Hedge find and other 17.9 % 20.8 % 14.9 % 9.9 % 9.9 % 9.9 % Total 5.5 % 4.4 % 4.1 % 4.2 % 4.0 % 3.9 % Source: Gjensidige, Protector Forsikring, Fondsfinans research Investment portfolio Real estate 12 % Hedge funds 4 % Other 3 % Bonds held to maturity 33 % Equities 7 % Money market 17 % Current and other bonds 24 % 25

26 A low risk investment at a too high price SUMMARY Key numbers NOKm E 2016E 2017E 4Q14 1Q15E Private Norw ay 1,624 1,317 1,310 1, Commercial Norw ay 1,140 1, Other Underw riting result 2,862 2,312 2,357 2, Combined ratio 85.9 % 89.1 % 89.3 % 90.4 % 84.4 % 95.5 % Pension and savings Online retail banking Investments 2,427 2,385 2,340 2, Other Pre tax profit 5,400 4,885 4,940 4,898 1, Tax 1,210 1,095 1,107 1, Net profit 4,190 3,790 3,833 3, EPS DPS P/E Dividend yield % 7.9 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 4.5 % ROE 17.5 % 17.2 % 16.7 % 15.0 % P/B Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research Gjensidige is a safe haven when falling oil price creates waves in the Norwegian stock market From 2014, underwriting results in general insurance is expected to be a larger contributor to profit than returns from the relatively low-risk investments portfolio A low cost multi-channel distribution model is in our view a key success factor for Gjensidige We base our NOK 122 target price on a sustainable RoE of 16%, higher than Gjensidige s target of 15% 26

27 Balance sheet ESTIMATES NOKm E 2016E 2017E ASSETS Intangibles 1,508 2,581 3,576 3,391 3,700 3,943 3,943 3,943 3,943 Investments in associates 3,783 4,276 4,533 5,036 4, Investment in properties 5,510 5,900 5,248 4,627 4,644 6,104 6,696 7,200 7,667 Other 1,445 2, Non-current assets 12,246 14,969 13,874 13,311 13,660 10,769 11,362 11,865 12,332 Shares, bonds and similar 23,291 23,209 24,316 24,532 28,641 31,719 32,758 33,833 34,985 Bonds held to maturity 15,816 14,498 11,693 9,264 5,211 2,956 3,004 3,056 3,111 Loans and other receivables 13,350 19,538 24,457 32,397 42,692 46,970 50,000 52,446 54,427 Receivables related to operations/reinsurance 3,436 3,927 3,791 4,113 4,291 4,630 4,630 4,630 4,630 Cash and cash equivalents 3,104 2,890 3,513 2,332 2,729 2,404 1,400 2,439 6,395 Other 3,627 5,076 6,902 8,260 11,722 14,535 14,535 14,535 14,535 Financial assets 62,623 69,138 74,673 80,896 95, , , , ,083 TOTAL ASSETS 74,869 84,107 88,547 94, , , , , ,415 EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Share capital 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Other equity 21,005 22,138 22,283 24,618 25,288 20,657 21,497 22,380 26,180 Equity 22,005 23,138 23,283 25,618 26,288 21,657 22,497 23,380 27,180 Provision for unearned premiums 7,672 9,078 9,531 10,142 11,049 11,945 12,597 13,074 13,576 Claims provision 25,857 28,339 29,962 29,562 31,750 32,927 34,727 36,041 37,423 Pension liabilities Other Provision for liabilities 34,517 38,380 40,746 40,112 43,213 45,878 48,330 50,121 52,004 Deposits from and liabilites to customers 6,550 9,120 9,776 11,580 14,938 16,703 18,540 20,209 22,230 Interest bearing liabilities 4,916 5,255 5,263 5,356 9,772 9,543 10,330 11,181 12,103 Other 6,881 8,213 9,477 11,541 14,736 20,201 17,990 17,911 16,898 Financial liabilites 18,347 22,588 24,517 28,477 39,446 46,447 46,861 49,301 51,231 TOTAL LIABILITES AND EQUITY 74,869 84,107 88,547 94, , , , , ,415 Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research 27

28 Segmental estimates ESTIMATES NOKm E 2016E 2017E 4Q14 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Private Norw ay 662 1,186 1,601 1,305 1,624 1,317 1,310 1, Commercial Norw ay ,140 1, Other Nordic Baltic Corporate centre Underw riting result general insurance 797 1,421 2,608 2,020 2,862 2,312 2,357 2, Pension and savings Online retail banking Investments 2,705 2,415 3,005 2,538 2,427 2,385 2,340 2, Amortisation and impairment Other items (63) Pre tax profit 3,259 3,895 5,633 4,574 5,400 4,885 4,940 4,898 1, ,280 1,400 1,226 Tax expense ,353 (903) -1,210-1,095-1,107-1, Tax % 9 % 23 % 24 % 20 % 22 % 22 % 22 % 22 % 17 % 22 % 22 % 22 % 22 % Net profit 2,955 2,996 4,280 3,671 4,190 3,790 3,833 3, , EPS Source: Gjensidige, Fondsfinans research 28

29 We rate Gjensidige LOW risk RISK ASSESSMENT Catastrophes, including natural disasters and terrorist-related events, may cause Gjensidige to incur substantial losses. The risk is reduced through reinsurance and the Natural Perils Pool in Norway Gjensidige derives a significant portion of its income from financial assets. Fluctuations in the fixed income, equity and the property markets may have significant adverse effect on results and financial position The EU has introduced a new regime governing solvency margins and provisions for insurance companies, the effect of which is still uncertain. The main political risk factor currently is, however, introduction of higher national requirements than EU s minimum 29

30 Share information Share data Share data Sector Financials Bloomberg GJF NO Risk rating Low Outstanding shares mill 500 Market cap 65,650 Free float 38 % Average volume 800 High/low 52w 137/109 Weight OSEBX 2.7 % Rel. Perf 3/6/12 3/3/6 Abs. Perf. 3/6/12 5/16/18 Source: Bloomberg, Oslo Børs VPS, Fondsfinans research Shareholders Name Shares (mill.) % Gjensidigestiftelsen 311m 62.2 % Folketrygdfondet 24m 4.8 % Deutche Bank 20m 3.9 % BlackRock 7m 1.3 % Danske Bank 6m 1.2 % Thornburg Investment Mgt 5m 1.0 % State street Corp. 5m 1.0 % Safe Investment Company 5m 0.9 % DNB 4m 0.8 % UBS 4m 0.7 % Other 111m 22.2 % Total 500m % The Gjensidige Foundation is a protection against unfriendly takeovers Its share of ordinary dividends is distributed to policyholders in Gjensidige (15% of premiums in 2014) 30

31 Definitions of ratings Buy Low risk: with a potential of min 5%. Medium risk: with a potential of min 10%. High risk: with a potential of min 20%. Neutral Low risk: -5% to +5%. Medium risk: -10% to +10%. High risk: -20% to +20%. Sell Low risk: min 5%. Medium risk: min 10%. High risk: min 20%. Risk ratings are based on price volatility, fundamental criteria and perceived risk. Ratings are: Low (L), Medium (M) and High (H). Target: Our valuation as of today. Time frame of target: Target is what we value the share as of today. Recommendation distribution as of : Companies in each recommendation category that have been investment banking clients over the past 12 months: Recommendation No Percent Recommendation No Percent Buy % Buy 2 6 % Neutral % Neutral 1 7 % Sell 1 2 % Sell 0 0 % Total % Total 3 Our intention is to issue preview and update research on a quarterly basis. Our investment recommendation is elaborated in accordance with The Norwegian Securities Dealers Associations standards. This report has not been sent to the company for correction of any factual errors. Fondsfinans is organized with Chinese walls between the Corporate Department and the Research/Broking Department. In addition, Fondsfinans has internal instructions and guidelines for handling sensitive information. The analyst receives compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, including investment banking activities. Fondsfinans is under supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. This report is an initiation of coverage with a SELL-recommendation. 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