Gjensidige Insurance Group Q1 2010

Transcription

1 Gjensidige Insurance Group Q1 2010

2 Disclaimer The information contained herein has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring BA ( the Company ). Such information is confidential and is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or inpart, foranypurpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. These materials contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company s present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. 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3 Agenda I. Highlights II. Financial Performance III. Investment Performance IV. Solvency II V. Outlook Supplementary Information 3

4 Harsh winter contributed to a negative UW-result General insurance Underwriting result characterized by cold winter Cost performance in keeping with the objectives that were set for reduction of operating expenses and claims expenses The acquisition of Nykredit Forsikring gives Gjensidige a significant position in the Danish general insurance market Other business areas The bank is developing in keeping with expectations and reported a profit for the first time since start-up Strong growth in assets under management for Pension and savings with total assets under management exceeding MNOK 9,500 at the end of Q Value creation A strong financial i result in the quarter ensures a satisfactory profit for the Group 6.2 per cent pretax return on equity (annualised) The Group The encouraging improvements in the Norwegian Customer Barometer survey show that Gjensidige's s focus on customer orientation gives measurable results Conversion to a public limited company unanimously approved by the annual general meeting Final implementation is pending approval by the authorities Preparing for a listing in second half of

5 Financial highlights Earned premiums General insurance, net of reinsurance 15,660 First quarter Slight increase in earned premiums, mainly due to growth within private lines in Norway and commercial lines in Sweden 3,811 3,789 Net winter related claims of NOK 371 million above a normal level l for the first quarter a negative effect on the claims ratio of 9.7 Q Q Underwriting result General insurance 818 A net positive effect on earnings of NOK 43 million as a result of taking early retirement (AFP) liabilities to income after the passage of the AFP-Act, equivalent to a positive effect on the cost ratio of 1.1 (369) 97 The combined ratio amounted to in the quarter (97.4 in Q1 2009) Profit before tax expense of MNOK 344 (MNOK 296) Q Q

6 Focus on main drivers for continued success HR Norway s annual price to Gjensidige Management and skills development Gjensidige Customer and Brand School CEO/ Group Management Customer and brand academy Sales a cademy Claims a cademy E-learning Man nagement a cademy Shared administration Training init tiatives by choice Extreme customer orientation 1) From no. 56 to no. 17 NORWEGIAN CUSTOMER BAROMETER Ranking Company Satisfaction 1 Flytoget BMW Toyota Vinmonopolet Audi Hurtigruten Finn.no SkandiaBanken Skoda Interoptikk Terra Skadeforsikring Gjensidige Forsikring (skade) Sparebank 1 Skadeforsikring Nordea TrygVesta (skade) TrygVesta (liv) Storebrand (skade) Postbanken If Gjensidige Forsikring (liv) Sparebank Fokus Bank Storebrand (liv) Nordea (liv) DnB NOR Vital Forsikring (liv) DnB NOR Kapitalforvaltning ) Source: Norsk Kundebarometer, a research project at The Norwegian School of Management. Norsk Kundebarometer conducts an annual customer satisfaction survey.

7 Gjensidige in Denmark Positioned for growth Strengthened distribution power for Gjensidige s branch operations in Denmark 310 real estate branches Nykredit - transaction closed Apr 29, 2010 Nykredit Group to sell and distribute Gjensidige s s non-life insurance products in the Danish market Products to be distributed under Nykredit and Gjensidige brands Extensive distribution, including 70 sales offices and two estate agencies with a total of 310 offices EDC distribution agreement Agreement in force from Oct 1, 2010 Denmark s largest real estate t agent with market share of approx. 21 per cent More than 240 branches Approx. 15,000 transactions annually Distribution agreement where insurance products are to be distributed under the Gjensidige brand, at Gjensidige s rates 7

8 Cost and Claims reduction Initiatives Status Q1 2010: According to plan Cost reduction initiatives* Claims reduction initiatives 72 (22) (90) ,654 2, Plan Actual 100 Costs 2009** Savings 2010 Remaining savings 2010 Target 2010 Cost Inflation 2010 Realised savings YTD 2010 Rest 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual effect (plan) 100 MNOK 280 MNOK 465 MNOK 8 * Only measures initiated in 2009 have full effect in Q1. Excl. effect of non-recurring income of MNOK 43 (AFP) ** Costs for general insurance excl. collective bonus of MNOK 46, and non-recurring provisions of MNOK 72 in 2009

9 Financial Performance

10 Key Figures (MNOK) Earned premiums General insurance, net of reinsurance Underwriting result General insurance 15, ,811 3,789 (369) 97 Q Q Q Q Net income from investments Profit before tax expenses 2,788 3, Q Q Q Q

11 Q1 net winter related claims above normal level (MNOK) Private Commercial Nordic Baltic Total 11

12 Key Financials Performance by business areas MNOK Q Q Pi Private Norway (223) Commercial Norway Nordic (123) Baltic (1) Corporate Centre (47) (30) (233) Underwriting result (369) Pension and savings (11) (35) (108) Online retail banking 5 (20) (76) Health care services Return on financial assets ,723 Amort. of excess value (124) (26) (217) Other items (2) (1) (7) Profit/(loss) before tax exp ,167 12

13 Quarterly Underwriting Results General Insurance (MNOK) (369) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

14 Premiums General Insurance (MNOK) 6,641 GPW development General insurance Q Q * 6,523 Q Private Commercial Nordic Baltic Group adj. Q GPW development adjusted for currency effects** Q Q * 6,641 6,695 Gross written premiums fell by 1.8 per cent in Q vs. Q Increase in Private is attributed to an improved growth in premiums in force compared with last year, together with the effect of premium increases that were carried out Decrease in Commercial due to a consistent focus on profitability, including through the major renewals at year-end Increase in the Nordic segment due to a general growth in business, where the fastest growth was seen in the commercial market in Sweden Decrease within the Baltic segment due to market contraction Q Private Commercial Nordic Baltic Group adj. Q *Group adjustments/ internal reinsurance **Translation based on average currency rate for Q1 2009

15 Large losses* - net General Insurance Q (Q1 2009) Reported Expected Actual claims figures large losses large losses Claims MNOK 3,544 (MNOK 3,015) MNOK 128 MNOK 126 (MNOK 136) Loss ratio 93.0% (79.6%) 3.4% 3.3% (3.6%) Actual large losses by business area Private Commercial Nordic Baltic 15 Q Q * Large losses > MNOK 10

16 Run-off net Run-off (MNOK) Run-off, % of earned premium Group Life and Motor BI (Norway) Liability & Accident (Denmark) Q Q WC & Diseases (Norway) Q1 Egenregning For own account Gjennomsnitt Average Run-off gain in Q of MNOK 104 Run-off gain in Q due to: Stable and positive development of previous claims in motor (BI) in Norway Positive development of large fire claims in Norway Deflation in the Baltic business implies lower losses than expected 16

17 Cost Development General Insurance (MNOK) Cost development general insurance Q Q Cost decrease of 6.1 per cent in Q vs. Q Positive development in the Norwegian segments in Q Cost reducing initiatives Non-recurring income of MNOK 43 due to AFP-Act Increase in Nordic due to growth, especially within the Swedish commercial business and the white label l business Non-recurring income related to AFP Positive development in Baltic in Q1, mainly due to cost reducing measures implemented through 2009 and Q

18 Return on Equity Equity (MNOK) 22,226 21,968 Capital adequacy of 17.4 per cent (18.9 per cent year end 2009) Solvency margin of per cent (713.8 per cent year end 2009) Q YE 2009 Pre-tax Return on Equity (%) * Q * Annualised

19 Economic Capital Allocation* NOK bn IFRS Equity Capital, dividend adjusted Bridging ECA and IFRS Equity Capital Excess economic capital available over binding requirements Additional binding capital requirements Health Bank Pension and savings Asset Risk, Storebrand Asset Risk (Non-life companies) ex Storebrand Baltic Nordic Commercial Norway Private Norway 19 * Adjusted for dividend for 2009 and the acquisition of Nykredit Forsikring

20 Investment Performance

21 Investment Performance Return Q Per Asset Class Highlights first quarter 3.5 % Total investment portfolio of MNOK 52,650 as at 31 March % 1.7 % Positive return on the investment portfolio in Q of 1.6 per cent (0.6 per cent) 1.3 % % % Good return on the fixed-income portfolio of 0.4 % 1.5 per cent Equit ties Mone ey Mark ket Curre ent bond ds HTM- -bonds Loan ns and recei vables Real estate Hedg gefunds and other Positive result of MNOK 82 from Storebrand and MNOK 35 from SpareBank1 SR-Bank (the latter based on Gjensidige s own estimate) Positive return in the Private Equity portfolio of MNOK 77 No special conditions affecting the real estate portfolio in the first quarter Impairment of international real estate funds of MNOK 13 21

22 Asset Allocation Asset Allocation March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) 2.7 % (3.2 %) 11.9 % (12.5 %) 4.3 % (0.0 %) 28.8 % (32.1 %) 12.9 % (6.9 %) 17.5 % (19.0 %) Equities Money market Current bonds HTM-bonds Loans and receivables Hedge funds and other Real estate 22.0 % (26.3 %) 22

23 Solvency II

24 Solvency II Overview of preparations Preparations for Solvency II GAP analysis performed in 2008 Project start up in 2009 Gjensidige is well positioned for compliance with SII, but adjustments and preparations are needed Status Participation in all QISes ( ) ALM model in use for over 5 years ALM model includes all general insurance premiums* Risk Management System established with required functions Three lines of defense are in place Preparations for ORSA are planned; work on version 1 of ORSA document is started Significant involvement from Board of Directors and Group Management Group Risk Committee is steering group for Gjensidige s Solvency II project. Members are CEO, CFO, CRO, CIO, Executive VP Product/Underwriting, Executive VP International General Insurance, Chief Actuary 24 * Not including Nykredit

25 Solvency II Internal Model What is a Solvency II Internal Model? It s not just number-crunching It s company specific There are strict criteria for approval Gjensidige s Internal Model We have a capital model, in use since 2004 The model has been used actively in business processes The model was not developed to satisfy Solvency II: gaps exist Expected benefits Improved Enterprise Risk Management Improved alignment of regulatory and risk based capital requirement 25

26 Solvency II QIS5 preliminary estimate* QIS 5, preliminary NOK bn IFRS Equity 22.0 Balance sheet adjustments +4.8 Intangibles, dividends Own Funds 22.7 QIS 5 preliminary capital implications Excess capital of NOK bn 11.3 Nykredit acquisition utilises NOK bn 2.4 of excess capital Investments in Storebrand (STB) and Sparebank1 SR-Bank (ROGG) of NOK bn 5.4 Most of Own funds qualify for Tier1, leaving considerable capacity for hybrid capital Market risk 4.6 UW risk 10.3 Operational risk 0.9 Cap.req. subsidiaries 0.6 (non-insurance) Diversification -5.0 SCR Group 11.4 Excess capital Considerable uncertainty Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the final Solvency II requirements Many uncertainties with regards to interpretation of QIS 5 technical specifications Main assumptions STB and ROGG investments are counted as part of excess capital QIS5 preliminary specifications are used Natural Perils Fund included in Own Funds * Based on Group figures as of 31 December 2009

27 Solvency II Final remarks Preparing for Solvency II Gjensidige is well positioned in their overall preparations Gjensidige will apply for use of an internal model Considerable regulatory uncertainty remains regarding the details of Solvency II and its impact on the capital requirement 27

28 Outlook 28

29 Outlook Poor underwriting results in the first quarter of 2010 due to the harsh winter. A normal trend in the insurance operations is expected for the rest of the year. The competition in the Nordic and Baltic general insurance market is still increasing, and is expected to remain tough going forward. The distribution power in Denmark has been considerably strengthened through strategic agreements with Nykredit and EDC. The bank has achieved a volume that should make it possible to operate profitably in the coming years. The financial markets are marked by uncertainty as to the effects of changes in economic policy and the weakened fiscal position for a number of countries. The Group s capital situation and financial solidity is strong 29

30 Attractive Nordic General Insurance Market Fundamentals A unique model Market Leader in Norway - Strong Brand and Customer Affiliation Attractive Return on Equity Supported by Strong Capitalisation Scope for Further Cost and Revenue Efficiencies - In combination with Attractive Growth Opportunities Value Focused Management Team with Outstanding Track Record 30

31 Supplementary Information

32 Key Financials Group Figures MNOK Q Q Gross premiums written, total 7,226 7,065 18,276 Loss ratio, Gen. ins. 93.0% 79.6% 77.1% Cost ratio, Gen. ins. 16.7% 17.9% 17.7% UW result, Gen. ins. (369) Net income from inv ,788 Profit/(loss) before tax exp ,167 Profit for the period ,305 32

33 Asset class exposure Equity exposure Main equity exposures are the stakes in Storebrand and SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, private equity and current shares Split of fixed income portfolio NOK mill. % Fixed income exposure Money market instruments ,1 % Non-public rated issuers are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipals, credit institutions and power producers and distributors Bonds: Bonds held to maturity ,7 % Bonds loans and receivables ,9 % Bonds held for trading ,8 % Investment grade bond (international) ,7 % High yield bond funds (international) ,8 % Total bonds ,9 % Sum ,0 % Rating NOK mill. % Investment grade ,1 % High yield ,2 % Non rated ,8 % Sum ,0 % 33 Rating - including internal rating by Storebrand NOK mill. % Investment grade ,7 % High yield ,2 % Non rated ,2 % Sum ,0 %

34 Cost Development General Insurance Norway Employees general insurance Norway 2,272 2,242 2,033 2,060 2,055 2,041 1, employees transferred from GPS June 1, 2008 Baseline YE 2005 YE2006 YE2007 YE2008 YE2009 Q Branch offices general insurance Norway Baseline YE April 2007 YE2007 YE2008 YE 2009 Q1 2010

35 Market leader in Norway Across segments and most product lines Market shares Total market Market share - Commercial 8.9 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 3.8 % 9.9 % 28.4 % Gjensidige If TrygVesta Sparebank1* Terra 30.6% 30.0% 17.5% 17.3 % 27.0 % Codan DnB NOR Other 4.7% Gjensidige If TrygVesta Sparebank1* Market share - Private Market share Agriculture (Part of Private) 71.9 % 27.5% 25.8% 17.0% 12.3% 15.8 % 2.1 % 9.4 % Gjensidige If TrygVesta Sparebank1* Gjensidige If TrygVesta Terra 35 Source: FNO, general insurance, 31 December The definition of Private and Commercial is adjusted to reflect Gjensidige s business model. * Sparebank1 non-life and Sparebank1 life report separately to FNH. In this illustration the Sparebank1 figures have been joined.

36 General Insurance General Insurance Private Norway

37 Highlights General Insurance Private Norway Product Lines March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Highlights first quarter Other 7.0% (6.5%) Agri- culture 11.4% (11.7%) Motor 32.4% (31.7%) Earned premiums, net of reinsurance, performed positively in the quarter with an increase of 3.6 per cent from Q to Q The underwriting result in Q was negative MNOK 223 compared to positive MNOK 16 in Q1 2009, as a result of a long period with low temperatures during the winter Accident and health 31.1% (32.3%) Increase in the level of large losses from MNOK 12 in Q to MNOK 63 in Q1 2010, whilst the run-off loss decreased in Q compared to Q Property Considerable improvement of cost ratio from 18.2% (17.8%) 17.9 per cent in Q to 15.3 per cent in Q A decrease in nominal costs of MNOK 112 in Q against Q Combined ratio of in Q (99.1 in Q1 2009) 37

38 Key Figures General Insurance Private Norway Gross Premiums Written (MNOK) Combined Ratio (%) 8, ,557 2, Q Q Q Q Net Loss Ratio (%) Cost Ratio (%) Q Q Q Q

39 General Insurance General Insurance Commercial Norway

40 Highlights General Insurance Commercial Norway Product Lines March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Liability 5.2 % (4.5%) Highlights first quarter Earned premiums, net of reinsurance, fell by 5.5 per cent in Q compared to Q1 2009, to MNOK 1,111, due to a consistent focus on profitability Marine Lower underwriting result as a result of many 8.5 % winter-related claims. Underwriting result of (10.3%) MNOK 25 in Q against MNOK 73 in Q Motor 14.2 % Accident Large losses in Q of MNOK 13 against (14.6%) and health MNOK 74 in Q1 2009, whilst there is an 45.7 % increase in run-off gain from Q to Q1 (46.9%) 2010 Property 25.8 % (22.9%) Cost ratio of 12.5 in Q against 13.4 in Q Nominal costs decreased with MNOK 18 in Q against Q Combined ratio of 97.7 in Q1 2010, compared with 93.8 in Q Other 0.6 % (0.8%) 40

41 Key Figures General Insurance Commercial Norway Gross Premiums Written (MNOK) Combined Ratio (%) 5, , Q Q Q Q Net Loss Ratio (%) Cost Ratio (%) Q Q Q Q

42 General Insurance General Insurance Nordic

43 Highlights General Insurance Nordic Product Lines March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Highlights first quarter Property 46.0% (32.0%) Marine 0.3% (0.0%) Liability 7.5 % (6.5%) Other 0.4% (1.2%) Accident and health 15.8% (36.0%) Motor 30.0% (24.3%) Earned premiums, net of reinsurance increased with 13.3 per cent, from MNOK 560 in Q to MNOK 635 in Q The increase is due to a general growth in the business, with the fastest growth in the commercial market in Sweden Reduced underwriting result because of a high proportion of winter claims and a major claim in Sweden. Negative underwriting result of MNOK 123 in Q against positive underwriting result of MNOK 23 in Q A slight decrease in large losses in Q compared to Q The run-off gains in Q are lower than in Q Increasd cost ratio as a result of the growth in the commercial segment in Sweden. Cost ratio of 18.6 per cent in Q compared to 16.9 per cent in Q Nominal costs increased with MNOK 24 in Q against Q Combined ratio in Q of (95.8 in Q1 2009) 43

44 Key Figures General Insurance Nordic Gross Premiums Written (MNOK) Combined Ratio (%) 2, , Q Q Q Q Net Loss Ratio (%) Cost Ratio (%) Q Q Q Q

45 General Insurance General Insurance Baltic

46 Highlights General Insurance Baltic Product Lines March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Highlights first quarter Liability 5.9 % (5.0%) Other 2.7% (2.7%) A decrease in earned premiums, net of reinsurance, of 30 per cent from Q to Q as a result of continued market decline in the Baltic insurance market Diminished underwriting result as a result of the snowy winter. Underwriting result of negative MNOK 1 in Q against positive MNOK 16 in Q Accident and health No large losses. Run-off gain in Q slightly 20.1 % higher than in Q (17.2%) Motor 56.0 % (65.9%) Improved cost ratio through initiation of more cost-cutting measures. Cost ratio of 27.3 in Q (31.4 in Q1 2009) Property 15.3 % (9.2%) Combined ratio in Q of against 91.6 in Q

47 Key Figures General Insurance Baltic Gross Premiums Written (MNOK) Combined Ratio (%) Q Q Q Q Net Loss Ratio (%) Cost Ratio (%) Q Q Q Q

48 Pension and savings

49 Highlights Pension and savings Assets Allocation Group Policy Portfolio (MNOK) March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Highlights first quarter Very satisfactory increase in AUM, with a total AUM growth in Q of MNOK 3,804, to MNOK 9,855 as at 31 March, Profit margin savings of 0.16 per cent in Q1 Other 2010, compared to 0.19 percent in Q financial inv % (42.5 %) HTMbonds 37.8 % (38.5 %) Value-adjusted return on the paid-up policy portfolio performed positively with a return of 1.42 per cent in Q against 0.54 per cent in Q i bl Loss before tax for Q of MNOK 11 compared with a loss of MNOK 35 in Q The positive performance was mainly attributed to a strong growth in income, a positive return on the group policy portfolio Loans and receivables 12.8 % (0.0 %) Current bonds 11.6 % (0.0 %) Equity funds 5.5 % Money (3.8%) market 1.0 % (15.2 %) and a lower cost level 95.1 per cent of the customers at the end of the quarter were also insurance customers Handelsbanken s portfolio transferred to Gjensidige from Q1 2010

50 Key Figures Pension and savings Assets Under Management (MNOK) Profit Margin Savings (%) 1 9, Addition in the period 6,051 3, Q Q YE 2009 Q Q Customer Development Profit before tax 59,865 59,325 Q Q Addition in the period (11) (35) 540 4,705 Q Q YE (108) 1) Management income divided by average AUM (savings)

51 Online retail banking

52 Highlights Online retail banking Lending and Deposits (MNOK) March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Highlights first quarter Lending 12,222 (7,215) Deposits 6,702 (6,243) Loan book growth of MNOK 646 in Q1 2010, to a total loan book of MNOK 12,222 as at March 31, 2010 Deposits increased with MNOK 152 in Q to a total of MNOK 6,702 Deposits-to-loan ratio of 54.8 per cent as at March 31, 2010 Profit before tax for the first time since start-up in January Profit before tax in Q of MNOK 5, compared to loss before tax of MNOK 20 in Q Substantial improvement in the net interest rate as a result of the acquired consumer loan portfolio The number of registered customers increased with 1,245 in Q1 2010, to a total of 77,190 customers as at March 31, per cent shared customers with General Insurance Norway at the end of Q

53 Key Figures Online retail banking Loans (MNOK) Deposits (MNOK) 12, ,576 6,702 6,550 Addition in the period Addition in the period Q Q YE 2009 Q Q YE 2009 Deposit Ratio (%) Customer Development Addition in the period Addition in the period 77,190 75, Q Q YE ,245 2, Q Q YE

54 Health care services

55 Highlights Health care services Revenue Split Health care services March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009) Work environment surveys 1.6 % (2.4%) Highlights first quarter Operating income remained roughly the same in Q compared to Q1 2009, with MNOK 127 Operating costs decreased slightly to MNOK 118 in Q (MNOK 119 in Q1 2009) Private hospital and specialist services 23.1 % (24.4%) Personal security alarm services 19.1 % (19.7%) Corporate health care services 56.1 % (53.5%) EBITA-margin of 6.9 per cent in Q1 2010, against 6.7 per cent in Q The increase in the margin is attributed to a combination of higher employment of the HSE consultants as a result of higher demand, and the effect of cost reducing measures implemented in

56 Key Figures Health care services Revenues (MNOK) Costs (MNOK) Q Q Q Q EBITA Margin (%) EBITA (MNOK) Q Q Q Q