Technical & Derivatives Report

Transcription

1 Sensex (27002) / Nifty (8270) Yesterday, our markets opened on a flat note citing to muted global cues and remained sideways in first half. However, a flurry of buying interest in the latter half pushed the index higher to post a strong close well above the 8250 mark. Exhibit 1: Nifty Hourly Chart In our earlier report, we had mentioned about the Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern on hourly chart and as expected, Wednesday s corrective move proved out to be a pull back before yesterday s thrust. Technically speaking, yesterday s tail end surge seems very encouraging for our markets; indicating possibility of a breakout from the next hurdle of However, traders should keep a note that the final verdict on Brexit would be out in the initial hour of trading. This important global event may set the tone for the global as well as our markets. A positive outcome may lead to a breakout from the mentioned resistance and a disappointment would result into some strong selling in the market. An immediate support levels would be seen at levels. Keeping this event aside, we maintain our positive stance on the market with a positional perspective. Key Levels Support Resistance Support Resistance Nifty Bank Outlook - (17892) Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Although the Nifty Bank index opened on a flat note yesterday, the positive momentum picked up in latter half and eventually, ended the session with gains of 1.51% over its previous close. We have been mentioning since past few days that the Nifty Bank index is trading in a range of and only a breakout from this range will lead to a directional momentum. On the outcome of Britain's EU referendum on 'Brexit', global markets could see intense volatility, which could lead to breakout from the range on either side. Traders are hence advised to wait patiently and watch market s reaction till today s closing. Breakout from the mentioned range could lead to directional momentum in near term. Intraday supports for the index are placed around and 17350; whereas, resistances are seen around and Key Levels Support Resistance Support Resistance

2 Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.47% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 4.25% as market closed at levels. The Nifty June future closed with a premium of points against a premium of 1.35 points in previous session. The July series closed at a premium of points. The Implied Volatility of at the money options has increased from 20.94% to 21.69%. The total of the market is Rs. 2,70,484/- cr. and the stock futures is Rs. 68,270/- cr. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are UNITECH, JPASSOCIAT, IBREALEST, ADANIENT and INDUSINDBK. Nifty Vs Views FIIs activity in cash market segment was subdued. While in Index Futures, they bought worth Rs. 320 crores with rise in open interest, indicating fresh long formation in last trading session. On Index Options front, FIIs sold worth Rs. 390 crores with rise in open interest. In Call option, out of the money strikes, were active and they also STAR added fresh positions. While in Put option, addition JSWENERGY was seen in 8200 strike; while out of the money strikes 7800 strike also added some. Maximum in June series has shifted to 8400 from 8300 call and of put options is still intact in 8000 strike price. FIIs were continuously unwinding their long positions in Index and thus most of the longs are now out of the system. Nifty is light in terms of now, we would like to wait for any meaningful direction position. We advise traders to remain light on positions and avoid taking undue risk on the event EU Referendum on Brexit. Gainers INFRATEL ALBK RCOM Losers HEXAWARE IOB JETAIRWAYS ARVIND IGL Historical Volatility HV HEXAWARE JISLJALEQS INFRATEL YESBANK ALBK Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY BANKNIFTY SBIN TATAMOTORS RELIANCE Strategy Date Symbol Strategy Status May 30, 2016 TCS Ratio Bull Call Spread Active June 06, 2016 NIFTY Long Call Exited at Cost June 13, 2016 ONGC Ratio Bull Call Spread Active June 20, 2016 MARUTI Long Call Ladder Active 2

3 FII Statistics for 23-June 2016 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) (0.69) (198.39) TOTAL Turnover on 23-June 2016 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) TOTAL Nifty Spot = Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (June Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis 3

4 Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ACC 1,559 1,565 1,572 1,579 1,586 ADANIPORTS AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AUROPHARMA AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO 2,575 2,613 2,640 2,678 2,705 BANKBARODA BHEL BPCL 992 1,008 1,019 1,035 1,047 BHARTIARTL INFRATEL BOSCH 21,487 21,669 21,792 21,973 22,096 CIPLA COALINDIA DRREDDY 3,082 3,127 3,153 3,198 3,224 EICHERMOT 18,495 18,577 18,682 18,765 18,870 GAIL GRASIM 4,254 4,277 4,293 4,316 4,333 HCLTECH HDFCBANK 1,159 1,174 1,183 1,199 1,208 HDFC 1,220 1,233 1,241 1,254 1,262 HEROMOTOCO 3,014 3,039 3,061 3,085 3,107 HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDEA INDUSINDBK 1,076 1,090 1,100 1,114 1,125 INFY 1,185 1,198 1,207 1,220 1,228 ITC KOTAKBANK LT 1,459 1,479 1,493 1,513 1,528 LUPIN 1,455 1,470 1,483 1,498 1,510 M&M 1,350 1,362 1,371 1,384 1,393 MARUTI 4,100 4,134 4,155 4,189 4,209 NTPC ONGC POWERGRID RELIANCE SBIN SUNPHARMA TCS 2,609 2,627 2,643 2,661 2,678 TATAMTRDVR TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TECHM ULTRACEMCO 3,280 3,309 3,329 3,358 3,379 WIPRO YESBANK 1,062 1,086 1,101 1,125 1,139 ZEEL

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