Scenario analysis of Carbon Trade for Energy Efficient Renovations of. Operation Manual (take Beijing as an example)

Transcription

1 Scenario analysis of Carbon Trade for Operation Manual (take Beijing as an example) 1 st step: choose cities Choose the target city in the list ranked by energy consumption demand. As shown in Fig. 1, choose Beijing in the dropdown list. Here the cities are ranked by descending order of their energy consumption. Note: the 210 cities involved in the list are from the Chinese Industrial Standard Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings in Severe Cold and Cold Zones (JGJ ). For the cities not included in this list, please choose the climatic approximate ones in the list. Fig.1 2 nd Step: choose building type 1. Use the 4 criteria of floors, wall thickness, wall material and window glazing to categorize the type of the dominant buildings in the to-be renovated quarter. Note: A. Use the majority type of window and glass as criterion. B. as the scenario analysis is only aimed to provide reference for the stakeholders of energy efficiency in buildings, minority types of buildings in the area could be ignored when choosing the building type. C. The baseline of the other types of buildings apart from the 10 type in the list could be calculated by the methodology given by the Project individually. Take Beijing as an example, the buildings in the renovation area are all with 6 floors, 240mm solid clay brick and single frame+ single glazing. Therefore it is categorised in type 1.

2 Fig. 2 Criteria of categorization Types Floors Wall thickness (mm) Wall material Window glazing Type 1 4~8 240 Solid clay brick Single frame +single glazing Type 2 4~8 370 Solid clay brick Single frame +single glazing Type 3 4~8 370 Solid clay brick Single frame +single glazing or double glazing Type 4 4~8 370 Hollow brick Single frame +single glazing Type 5 4~8 370 Hollow brick Single frame +single glazing or double glazing Type 6 4~8 490 Solid clay brick Single frame +single glazing or double glazing Type 7 4~8 200 Aerated concrete Single frame + single glazing Type 8 4~8 200 Aerated concrete Single frame +single glazing or double glazing Type 9 >8 200 Aerated concrete Single frame +single glazing Type 10 >8 200 Aerated concrete Single frame +single glazing or double glazing Note: Floors: the floors above ±0; Half-basement with windows above terrace and having floor height >2.20m (not include 2.20m) is taken as a floor; Wall thickness: painting layers are not included; Wall material: for frame structure, filler wall s material is referred to; lightweight aggregate concrete is treated as aerated concrete; Glazing layers: double- frame refers to two independent windows in the same window hole. If there are more than one sort of windows, the ones with a majority should be taken. 2. As shown in Fig. 3, choose type 1 within the type 1-10 in the dropdown list of Building Type. The description shows now "4-8 floors; 240mm wall; solid clay brick; single frame &single glazing window". Please note: the sequence of building types is not ranked by the type number but the descending order of their baselines. Fig. 3

3 3 rd Step: obtain heating energy demand baseline After chosen the city and building type, the heating energy baseline demand will be shown automatically. As in Fig. 4, the heating energy demand baseline of building type 1 in Beijing is 115 kwh/ (m² a). Fig. 4 4 th Step: choose expected quality of energy efficient renovation The expected quality of energy efficient renovation refers to the quality of the construction and material used during the renovation. It is qualitatively categorized as good, medium and poor. It could be applied to the target project by chosen one corresponding number from 1, 2 or 3 as shown in Fig. 5. This option will affect the actual cost of energy efficient renovation and the energy saving rate. Here 1-good is chosen for Beijing, as the quality of construction and materials are relatively good. Fig. 5 5 th Step: choose local standard unit cost of energy efficient renovation A value in the local standard unit cost of energy efficient renovation option is to be chosen accordingly based on the local standard of energy efficient renovation of residential buildings and the local market price, as shown in Picture 6. Only cost in direct relation to energy efficient renovation should be considered, including cost of renovation design, material, construction and testing etc. Cost with no direct relation to energy saving, such as maintenance or functional upgrading of the buildings, shall not be included. Here CNY300/ m² is chosen for Beijing.

4 Fig. 6 6th Step: obtain unit renovation cost according to actual renovation quality The unit renovation cost will be automatically shown after the 4 th and 5 th step. a. If the expected quality of energy efficient renovation is 1-good, the unit renovation cost equalizes the local standard unit cost of energy efficient renovation. b. If the expected quality of energy efficient renovation is 2-medium, the unit renovation cost equalizes 85% of the local standard unit cost of energy efficient renovation. c. If the expected quality of energy efficient renovation is 3-poor, the unit renovation cost equalizes 70% of the local standard unit cost of energy efficient renovation. As shown in Fig. 7, the unit renovation cost in Beijing is CNY 300 per square meter. Fig. 7 7th Step: obtain energy saving rate and actual heating energy consumption after renovation As the scenario analysis is conducted under the circumstances that the renovation does not actually happen, energy saving rate should be chosen first in the above mentioned 4 th step expected quality of energy efficient renovation, and calculate the actual heating energy consumption after renovation accordingly. If the expected quality of energy efficient renovation is 1-good, the energy saving rate will be set as 40%; If the expected quality of energy efficient renovation is 2-average, the rate will be 28%; If the expected quality of energy efficient renovation is 3-poor, the rate will be 16%. Both energy saving rate and actual heating energy consumption after renovation are shown and calculated automatically. As shown in Fig. 8, the energy saving rate for Beijing is 40% and the actual heating energy consumption after renovation in this example is 69kWh/(m² a) Fig. 8

5 8 th Step: choose total building area of energy efficient renovation The total building area of energy efficient renovation is the total planned building area to be renovated of the same building type in the target city. Four options of 100,000m², 200,000m², 500,000m² and 1,000,000m² are given. As shown in Fig. 9, 100,000 m² is chosen for Beijing for example. Fig. 9 9 th Step: choose raw coal price and the proportion of different heating energy Raw coal price refers to the local raw coal price in the heating season, and options ranked from 200 CNY to 1400 CNY per ton are given. Proportion of different heating energy refers to a rough proportion distribution of the main energy types of coal, natural gas and renewable energy. As shown in Fig. 10, 11 and 12, taking Beijing as example, the price of raw coal is CNY 1000 per ton. Coal accounts for 10% of the heating energy and natural gas accounts for the other 90%. No renewable energy is used as heating energy. Fig. 10 Fig. 11 Fig th Step: choose expected carbon trade price and payoff phase

6 The expected carbon trade price is the forecasted unit price of carbon emission at the time the renovation project is finished and enters into the carbon trade market. Options ranked from 30 CNY to 150 CNY per ton are given. Comparing the price of 75 CNY per ton for Shenzhen city in 2013, here CNY 100 per ton is chosen as Beijing s expected carbon trade price, as shown in Picture 13. According to relevant CDM regulations, the shortest registration period of a project, also the unit period of benefit, is 7 years. Hence four options are given. A medium term of 14 years is chosen for example, as shown in Fig. 14. Fig. 13 Fig th Step: data analysis and reference After all the steps mentioned above, the results including total investment of the project, total carbon emission reduction, total saving on energy cost and total verified profit of carbon emission reduction will be shown in the second part of the table, as in Fig. 15, and could serve as reference for the stakeholders of city energy efficient renovation projects. Notes: - The total investment of the project includes not only the cost of the renovation project, but also the first certification fee (default as 200,000 CNY), and verification fees (150,000 CNY every 3 years) for the participation in the carbon trade market. - The amount of loan is set as default the half of the total investment of the project without the certification and verification fees. - The term of the loan is fixed to 10 years. Fig. 15