Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014

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1 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois April 22, 2014 Contact: Geoffrey Hewings (hewings@illinois.edu) Xian Fang (fang21@illinois.edu)

2 Housing Forecast April Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014 The Housing Market In March, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the third consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 9,929 houses were sold in Illinois, 11.6% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 7,177 houses were sold, 11.1% less than last March. The median price was $147,900 in Illinois, up 10.0% from March last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $175,000, up 12.9% from this time last year. The sales forecast for April, May and June 2014 finally suggests a rebound of sales after the three months of negative annual growth in the first quarter. While the forecasts suggest a moderation in the negative annual growth rates, the month-to-month growth will be positive. On an annual basis, the three-month average forecasts point to a trivial decrease between 0.5% and 0.7% for Illinois and 1.0% to 1.3% for the Chicago PMSA. On a monthly basis, the threemonth average sales are forecast to increase by 57.3%-77.5% for Illinois and 57.9%-78.4% for the Chicago PMSA. Median price forecasts, on the other hand, indicate slower annual increases for April, May and June compared to the first quarter. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.2% in April, 6.7% in May and 4.4% in June. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.1% in April, 6.5% in May and 2.4% in June. As a comparison to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 1 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 4.6% in April, 5.4% in May and 2.3% in June. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 6.5% in April, 7.4% in May and 3.9% in June. While the differences between median index and the REAL index for Illinois are smaller than for the Chicago PMSA, it probably signals less structural change in the Illinois housing market than in the Chicago PMSA. Months of supply of housing units are decreasing in general, but with more heterogeneous patterns when examined by price ranges. Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.6 months (down from 6.0 months a year ago) and the Chicago PMSA had 3.3 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). The overall inventory declines comprised both increases and decreases for homes at different price ranges. Homes priced below $200K experienced declines in the inventory, dominated by a decrease in listings. Meanwhile, homes priced above $200K had an increase in the inventory, dominated by a decrease in pending sales. In terms of future housing supply, more building permits were given to multifamily rather than single-family units compared to last year. According to housing permits data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), until February, Illinois had generated 5.4% more multifamily building permits and 6% less single-family building permits compared to the same 1 REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.

3 Housing Forecast April period of time in The comparative figures for Chicago area are 122% and 1% more for multifamily and single-family units respectively. Housing ownership and affordability continues to receive attention. On April 1, the state of Illinois initiated the Welcome Home Illinois program to stimulate the home ownership rate. The program aims to assist first-time homebuyers in purchasing their home with a $7,500 down payment assistance and an interest rate of 3.75% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Around 3,000 households are estimated to have been assisted. Correspondingly on the rental market, a $26 million program to provide affordable rentals in Chicago was also announced in April. The city, together with 11 lending institutes and a few non-profits created a loan pool for easier financing for developers willing to redevelop vacant 1-4 units buildings. Although the coverage of these programs is limited, efforts directed to affordable housing are likely to become more critical given the expectation of continuing rising house prices in the coming months. While the foreclosure process is still long in Illinois, the time for foreclosure inventory to return to pre-bubble levels is one month less than the projection made last month. According to RealtyTrac s quarterly report, Illinois was still on the top list of states with the longest days to foreclosure an average of 830 days, ranking 5 th in the nation. In contrast, the average number days to complete the foreclosure process nationwide was 572 days in the first quarter. As of March 2014, there are 32,119 homes are at some stage of foreclosure in Illinoi this comprises the foreclosure inventory. REAL s analysis projects that the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels 2 by February 2015 if the declines in the average rates were of the past 6 months (-8.3%) were sustained. In April, Builder Confidence released by NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up to 47 from 46 in March, but still indicates builders continuing pessimism on the market conditions when the reading is below 50. Builders concerns were mainly the stringent lending for home-buyers, the difficulty of hiring workers and acquiring land according to NAHB. As for consumer confidence, two consumer confidence indices again in March pointed in opposite directions as they have for the all months in The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 (1985=100) from 78.3 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 80.0 from While the former index indicated consumers positive sentiment about future job prospects and overall economy growth (but with concerns about income growth), the later index characterized the opposite sentiment more confidence in personal financial situations but more concerns on the overall economy. The Housing Market Current Condition In March, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the third consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 9,929 houses were sold in Illinois, 11.6% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 7,177 houses were sold, 11.1% less than last March. The median price was $147,900 in Illinois, up 10.0% from March last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $175,000, up 12.9% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago 2 Average foreclosure inventory from

4 Housing Forecast April PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for April 2014 report table) In March, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.6 months 3 (down from 6.0 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.3 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). The overall declines hid considerable variations, with increases and decreases for homes at different price ranges. Homes priced below $200K experienced declines in the inventory, dominated by the decrease in listings. Meanwhile, homes priced above $200K had an increase in the inventory, dominated by the decrease in pending sales. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months Supply by Price Range figures) In March, homes priced below $200K held a smaller market share compared to a year ago, while homes at all other higher price ranges received increases in market shares. For Illinois, homes priced below $200K held a market share that decreased to 64.1% from 68.0% a year ago. The comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was 55.3%, a large decrease from 62.4% recorded in March (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) In terms of house characteristics, the percentage of homes sold with one and two bedrooms was around 2.4% more compared to last year; the comparative figure for homes with one or two bathrooms indicated an increase of 1%. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification figures) The Housing Market Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates slower annual increases in median prices for April, May and June compared to the first quarter. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.2% in April, 6.7% in May and 4.4% in June. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.1% in April, 6.5% in May and 2.4% in June. (Reference: Forecast for April 2014 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 4 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 4.6% in April, 5.4% in May and 2.3% in June. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 6.5% in April, 7.4% in May and 3.9% in June. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for April, May and June 2014 suggests a slight negative growth trend on a yearly basis and a strong positive three-month average growth. Annually, the threemonth average forecasts point to a trivial decrease of between 0.5% and 0.7% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range from 1.0% to 1.3%. On a three-month average basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 57.3%-77.5% for Illinois and 57.9%-78.4% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for April 2014 report table) 3 Months supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months. 4 REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.

5 Housing Forecast April The pending home sales index 5 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This March, homes put under contract increased largely on a monthly basis but still decreased slightly on a yearly basis. The pending home sales index is (2008=100) in Illinois, up 30.3% from last month and down 4.1% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 187.2, up 32.3% from last month and down 1.0% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In March 2014, 2,485 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 35.0% and up 7.7% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 3,984 foreclosures were completed 6 (up 17.0% and 14.7% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). As of March 2014, there are 32,119 homes are at some stage of foreclosures the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates were -8.3% in the past 6 months, -6.8% in the last 12 months and -3.8% in the last 24 months. Given these rates of change, the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels 7 by February 2015, April 2015 and March 2016 respectively. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures). The Economy In March 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate stayed at 6.7% as last month. The number of nonfarm payroll jobs experienced a gain of 192,000 that is higher than the average job grow of 183,000 in the last 12 months. Among all industries, professional and business services (+57,000) added most jobs. Construction contributed 19,000 job gains, among which residential building construction added 3,100 jobs while residential specialty trade contractors added 6,000 jobs. In February 2014, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.7% while 6,400 non-farm payroll jobs were added. Through January 2013, Illinois has added 257,400 new private sector jobs since March 2010 when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession. In February 2014, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will grow at a positive rate between 0.17% and 0.77%, corresponding to job gains between 9,900 and 44,700. Four sectors are forecast to show job gains: Professional and business services (3.99%; 36,100), Education and health (1.43%; 12,600), Leisure and hospitality (0.84%; 4,600) and Construction (1.59%; 3,100) Longer-term Outlook In March, two consumer confidence indices again pointed in opposite directions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 (1985=100) from 78.3 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 80.0 from While the former index indicated consumers positive sentiment about future job prospects and the overall economy growth, there were concerns about income 5 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year This is when an auction occurs, no matter what the auction results are. 7 Average foreclosure inventory from

6 Housing Forecast April growth. The later index revealed the opposite sentiment more confidence in personal financial situations but more concerns about the overall economy. In April, builder Confidence released by National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up to 47 from 46 in March. This is the third consecutive month with a score below 50. This index measures builder confidence towards the sales condition on single-family market from three perspectives: current sales, sales expected in next six month and the traffic generated by perspective homebuyers. A reading below 50 indicates that builders rate the sales condition as poor. The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to in February from in January. The decrease is attributed to a decline in job growth in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors in the Chicago area. Although the annual sales rates have declined, the month to month changes continue to be strongly positive, noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. In addition, positive housing price gains, continuing declines in the foreclosure inventory levels and the increasing share of sales of homes priced above $200,000 suggest a housing market that is responding positively to signals from the economy.

7 Housing Forecast April Forecast for April 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jan % -7.1% -29.0% -28.6% Feb % -6.9% -2.3% -4.3% Mar % -11.1% 24.6% 27.0% 3 Month Avg. -7.8% -8.6% -26.3% -26.5% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Apr % -3.1% -2.8% -3.9% 22.0% 29.8% 21.6% 29.2% May % -2.1% -1.3% -1.8% 17.7% 23.9% 18.9% 25.6% Jun % 2.7% 0.9% 1.3% 5.1% 6.9% 3.9% 5.2% 3 Month Avg. -0.5% -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% 57.3% 77.5% 57.9% 78.4% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jan-14 $135,900 $163,000 Jan-13 $125,000 $140,000 Feb-14 $132,500 $156,000 Feb-13 $124,000 $140,000 Mar-14 $147,900 $175,000 Mar-13 $134,500 $155,000 Apr-14 $155,461 $183,528 Apr-13 $145,000 $172,950 May-14 $165,335 $194,844 May-13 $155,000 $183,000 Jun-14 $177,549 $209,829 Jun-13 $170,000 $205,000 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jan % 16.4% Jan % 0.0% Feb % 11.4% Feb % 3.7% Mar % 12.9% Mar % 2.1% Apr % 6.1% Apr % 8.1% May % 6.5% May % 7.6% Jun % 2.4% Jun % 13.0%

8 Housing Forecast April Forecast for March 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Dec % 10.0% 5.0% 6.4% Jan % -7.4% -29.1% -28.8% Feb % -8.2% -3.2% -5.3% 3 Month Avg. -0.1% -1.1% -26.4% -26.8% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Mar % -12.5% -9.2% -12.4% 23.0% 31.2% 24.8% 33.5% Apr % -11.2% -10.2% -13.7% 13.5% 18.3% 11.8% 16.0% May % -17.8% -13.2% -17.8% 10.3% 14.0% 12.8% 17.4% 3 Month Avg % -14.2% -11.1% -15.0% 22.0% 29.8% 22.0% 29.8% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Dec-13 $148,500 $176,000 Dec-12 $131,000 $150,000 Jan-14 $135,850 $163,000 Jan-13 $125,000 $140,000 Feb-14 $132,500 $156,000 Feb-13 $124,000 $140,000 Mar-14 $143,939 $174,259 Mar-13 $134,750 $155,000 Apr-14 $151,433 $183,211 Apr-13 $145,000 $172,950 May-14 $161,295 $194,171 May-13 $155,000 $183,000 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Dec % 17.3% Dec % 3.4% Jan % 16.4% Jan % 0.0% Feb % 11.4% Feb % 3.7% Mar % 12.4% Mar % 2.1% Apr % 5.9% Apr % 8.1% May % 6.1% May % 7.6%

9 Median Sales Price Housing Forecast April $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 Illinois Median Home Sales Price $177,549 $165,335 $165,000 $155,461 $147, Forecast $148,500 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Illinois Total Home Sales , ,100 Forecast 12,500 10,000 9,929 8,000 6,000 4,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10 Axis Title Median Sales Price Housing Forecast April $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 Chicago PMSA Median Home Sales Price $209,829 $194,844 $183, Forecast $180,000 $170,000 $175,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties 14,000 12,000 10,000 Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales 11,500 11,000 9, Forecast 8,000 7,177 6,000 4,000 2,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties

11 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Housing Forecast April Illinois Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1) IL_Median IL_REAL Chicago PMSA Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1) Chicago PMSA_Median Chicago PMSA_REAL

12 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Housing Forecast April Pending Home Sales Index (2008=100) IL Pending Index Chicago Pending Index

13 Price by Ranges Price by Ranges Housing Forecast April Illnois Annual Months' Supply by Price Range Overall K~UP K~700K K~500K K~300K K~200K 0 ~100K Mar 2014 Feb 2013 Mar Chicago Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 3.3 Overall K~UP K~700K K~500K K~300K K~200K 0 ~100K Mar 2014 Feb 2013 Mar Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties

14 Share of Total Sales Share of Total Sales Housing Forecast April Illinois Price Stratification 40% 35% 30% 33.0% 36.3% 31.1% 31.7% 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2013 Mar 25% 20% 15% 16.3% 14.9% 12.9% 11.4% 10% 5% 3.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 0% 0 ~100K 100K~200K 200K~300K 300K~500K 500K~700K 700K~UP 40% Chicago PMSA Price Stratification 35% 30% 24.9% 30.4% 30.4% 31.0% 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2013 Mar 25% 20% 15% 19.0% 16.6% 16.4% 14.5% 10% 5% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 0% 0 ~100K 100K~200K 200K~300K 300K~500K 500K~700K 700K~UP Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties

15 Housing Forecast April % 45% 40% 35% Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 43.5% 44.1% 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2013 Mar 30% 25% 20% 27.4% 25.1% 19.8% 21.3% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4.4% 4.3% 3.8% 4.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1 Bedrooms 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5 Bedrooms Other 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 40.0% 40.5% 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 29.4% 2013 Mar 26.9% 20.0% 21.2% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5.5% 5.6% 3.8% 4.4% 1.2% 1 Bedrooms 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5 Bedrooms Other 1.3% Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties

16 Housing Forecast April % 45% 40% 35% Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 44.9% 44.0% 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 31.8% 31.4% 2013 Mar 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 9.7% 10.3% 11.7% 12.2% 5% 0% 2.0% 2.1% 1 Bathrooms 2 Bathrooms 3 Bathrooms 4 Bathrooms Other Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 60% 52.3% 2014 Mar 51.2% 50% 2014 Feb 40% 33.3% 33.9% 2013 Mar 30% 20% 10% 0% 11.2% 11.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.8% 1 Bathrooms 2 Bathrooms 3 Bathrooms 4 Bathrooms Other 0.9% Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties

17 Housing Forecast April

18 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Housing Forecast April Sales Ratio of Foreclosed Properties Chicago PMSA-3 Month Average 35% 30% 25% 24.8% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

19 Share of Bedrooms by Sale Price Range Share of Bedrooms by Sale price Range Housing Forecast April % Illinois Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 ~100K 100K~200K 200K~300K 300K~500K 500K~700K 700K~UP 60% Chicago PMSA Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 ~100K 100K~200K 200K~300K 300K~500K 500K~700K 700K~UP Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties

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