U.S. State And Local Government Credit Conditions Forecast: Economic Growth Is Tinged By Questions Of Sustainability

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1 U.S. State And Local Government Credit Conditions Forecast: Economic Growth Is Tinged By Questions Of Primary Credit Analyst: Gabriel J Petek, CFA, San Francisco (1) ; gabriel.petek@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Jennifer K Garza (Mann), Dallas (1) ; jennifer.garza@standardandpoors.com Apple Lo, Boston (1) ; apple.lo@standardandpoors.com Victor M Medeiros, Boston (1) ; victor.medeiros@standardandpoors.com Sarah Sullivant, San Francisco (1) ; sarah.sullivant@standardandpoors.com Anna Uboytseva, Chicago (1) ; anna.uboytseva@standardandpoors.com Lindsay Wilhelm, New York (1) ; lindsay.wilhelm@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Several Reasons Faster Growth Might Stick Unused Capacity Supports A More Cautious Outlook Putting The Recovery Into Historical Context Fiscal Management Makes The Difference In The Stable State Sector Local Governments Remain Stable Despite A Less-Than-Robust Housing Market The Regions OCTOBER 15,

2 U.S. State And Local Government Credit Conditions Forecast: Economic Growth Is Tinged By Questions Of U.S. regions have been growing during the past year at a faster pace than we earlier anticipated. The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis' revised estimate of second quarter real GDP growth of 4.6% surpassed Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' expectation of a 4.2% annualized growth rate for the quarter. More generally, the updated official growth estimate confirmed our view that the U.S. economy is gaining momentum. Even before the GDP revision, we had modestly raised our forecast of 2014 real GDP growth to 2.2% from 2.1%. Shortly thereafter, a strong September jobs report followed; thus, several recent indicators offer accumulating evidence that the economy could outperform even our somewhat improved outlook. Welcome as they are, indications of faster-paced economic growth create something of a dilemma for state and local government budget officials. Do they interpret the recent uptick in growth as a sign that the economy has finally gained enough traction to strengthen government fiscal capacity so they can begin to reinvest? Almost across-the-board, governments have restrained their staffing levels, programmatic funding, and infrastructure investment. But, in our opinion, if the economy is resurgent, then the time to make investments might be now -- before interest rates rise. On the other hand, if the prior economic pattern reasserts itself, it's also possible that the recent uptick in growth could prove ephemeral. In that case, establishing new or higher funding commitments could strain budgets if the growth -- and resultant tax revenues -- fail to materialize. Overview The current recovery has been less robust than most, but in recent months has shown signs of accelerating. Our forecast is for stronger second-half growth in 2014 and Some differentiation in credit quality among the states has emerged. The dividing lines have been fiscal forecasting and management. Local governments must balance spending restraint with providing needed services. The West South Central region leads the way in our growth forecast for 2014 and Several Reasons Faster Growth Might Stick Optimists can point to the fact that the labor market has strengthened considerably. Throughout the past 12 months, payroll jobs have increased at a 220,000 monthly clip. In fact, 2014 could turn out to be the strongest year of payroll job growth since prior to the last decade. The current environment gives rise to a key question: With the unemployment rate -- now at 5.9% -- on track to average only slightly above 6.0% for all of 2014, is it possible that wage growth will finally begin to accelerate late this year and into 2015? Wage growth remains a missing component of the recovery (as it was before), suggesting the persistence of slack in OCTOBER 15,

3 the labor market. Despite its other favorable features, the September jobs report showed that, once again, year-over-year the average hourly wage rose by just 2%. Considering that inflation is running at close to the same, wage gains measured in real terms are essentially absent. Without improvement in wages, we suspect the economic expansion is more sensitive to changes in asset prices and is inherently less sustainable. But if the supply of available workers is materially dropping, then we could begin to see upward pressure on wages. Such a development could reinvigorate the consumer and translate to stronger sales tax collections for state and local governments. It could also make the Federal Reserve more likely to raise interest rates in Again, this view paints a picture suggesting that the opportune time to make certain infrastructure investments may be now. In other words, current credit conditions are favorable -- not just for those that invest in municipal securities, but for the state and local government sector itself. Similar to the effect of an increase in wages, the fall in oil prices, now down about 20% since June, could also boost consumers' ability to consume. Lower oil prices are showing up at the gas pump in the form of lower gas prices and may also portend lower heating oil prices in advance of the winter months. But the lower oil prices could also foreshadow employment and budget losses in certain states with significant energy extraction-based economies. Among the states with above-average exposure to the energy sector are Alaska, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Our economists also look for increases in companies' capital expenditures, both for the second half of 2014 and into Such investment is an important indicator. For some time now, business investment as a share of GDP has been below traditional levels. Whereas business investment in capital structures has typically averaged 7.6% of GDP during economic expansions since 1959, it has only been 4.6% this time around. Despite ongoing low interest rates, sluggish topline revenue growth has been holding firms back. But if firms begin to perceive stronger demand, it could help unleash a virtuous growth cycle, in which investment adds jobs and fuels consumer spending, with obvious benefits for state and local government revenue collections. Unused Capacity Supports A More Cautious Outlook There is another, less favorable way to interpret recent economic performance and what it implies about the coming one-to-two years. Many potential workers are still sitting on the sidelines. The labor force participation rate, currently at 62.7%, continues its gradual slide and is now at a 36-year low. While a portion of this relates to an aging demographic, there is likely an ample supply of potential workers that could reenter the workforce. This reality probably explains the absence of wage pressure. And insofar as a large pool of workers could be drawn back into the labor force, there is little reason to anticipate that wage growth will accelerate soon. Similarly, while it might be a good time to make capital investments, private sector firms may still not see a compelling reason to do so. When the capacity utilization rate is below 80% -- as it is now -- U.S. industries have typically not needed to expand operations. In other words, firms could meet higher consumer demand with their current operational capacity, so why expand? On balance, we believe continued slow economic growth is most likely. Gradual wage gains may appear, and would be helpful to state and local governments' tax collections, but they are not likely to ignite material inflationary pressures at OCTOBER 15,

4 this point. Putting The Recovery Into Historical Context In order to place the current recovery into historical perspective, it's useful to recall that, since mid-2009, when the expansion began, real GDP has increased at an average annual rate of 2.4%. This rate of growth falls well short of previous economic recoveries from recessions since the end of World War II. Throughout these years, in the five years following recessions, real economic growth averaged 4.6%. And while it's possible that faster growth is now finally underway, there are still reasons to remain cautious. For one, the economy won't have the benefit of any tailwind generated by the unemployment rate falling from 10% to its current 5.9% as it did from October 2009 to the present. Economic growth will also have to continue to overcome the effects of federal sequestration, which remains in place despite claiming fewer headlines in recent months. We also observe that the Federal Reserve has nearly completed tapering its bond buying program, giving rise to some potential for higher interest rates. Finally, the recent disinflationary trends in Europe and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar will be a drag on growth by cutting into net exports. The effects will likely be more pronounced in states where exports makeup a more significant share of the economy. Among these states are Louisiana, Texas, Utah, South Carolina, Washington, and Indiana. Throughout much of the economic recovery that began in mid-2009, economic consensus has repeatedly projected that growth would accelerate -- but always about 12 to 18 months in the future. Inevitably, however, predictions of faster growth have failed to materialize. Even if real GDP were to grow at close to 4% in the third quarter and 3% in the fourth, as we forecast, the annualized rate for 2014 would remain low by historical standards. Notwithstanding our expectation of faster growth through 2015, our longer-term outlook is less bullish. Indeed, we have lowered our 10-year growth rate to 2.5%, reflecting flat wage growth, as well as rising income inequality (see "How Increasing Income Inequality Is Dampening U.S. Economic Growth, And Possible Ways To Change The Tide," published Aug. 5, 2014 on RatingsDirect). Looking at the economy's growth prospects through this more pessimistic lens may give state and local governments reason to stay cautious in their fiscal planning. Although expenditure restraint could protect governmental budgets if growth remains slow, governments will likely have to balance this against pressing needs. Operating and capital pressures are mounting. Whereas in total, U.S. payroll jobs achieved their pre-recession peak in June 2014, state and local government payroll jobs remain far below the prior peak. In fact, through August, state and local governments had only restored 19% of the positions they eliminated in response to the recession and are still 601,000 below where they were in August Fiscal Management Makes The Difference In The Stable State Sector In light of the stilted and slow overall economic recovery, some differentiation in the states' relative credit quality has emerged and become more pronounced, primarily as a result of differences in financial management and forecasting assumptions. A majority of states have built their budgets on revenue forecasts that assume modest economic growth. Stronger-than-expected improvement in the labor market this year has offered some expenditure relief in the form of OCTOBER 15,

5 reduced pressure on state social service networks. Early data suggest that Medicaid caseloads have grown at a somewhat slower-than-expected pace in numerous states, providing some budgetary gains. Conversely, a minority of states remain out of synch with the improving fiscal conditions across the state sector. Whether as a result of more aggressive fiscal policies, such as in Kansas, or a reliance on what proved to be overly optimistic revenue assumptions, such as in New Jersey, these states continue to operate with misaligned fiscal structures. Although we don't currently anticipate an economic or financial market disruption, we believe that states that have not fully recovered fiscally are more vulnerable to a downgrade should a disruption occur. Local Governments Remain Stable Despite A Less-Than-Robust Housing Market Local government property tax collections continue to improve as the housing market stabilizes, along with retail sales tax revenue, which in many areas is linked to construction activity. We expect economic conditions to remain positive over the next 12 months and believe that the risk of a broad contraction that affects the housing sector, and thus local government tax revenue, is small. The home price appreciation that has contributed to tax revenue growth in recent quarters has slackened, however, signaling a return to more normal market conditions. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index through the second quarter of 2014 indicates a leveling off of prices year over year. This could lead to slower growth in both property tax and construction-related sales tax revenue, as tax rolls begin to reflect the initial rebound in values following the recession. We believe management remains a key factor in determining local government financial performance, particularly given that the recovery has not progressed uniformly across regions. Many local governments have shown fiscal restraint in the current fiscal year, and budget assumptions for the coming year may either magnify or mitigate the risks presented by modest revenue growth. After years of deferring capital spending, coupled with declining state and federal support, some local governments have begun to feel the burden of aging infrastructure. While this could manifest as rising debt levels or increased spending on major capital projects, we do not expect it to exert significant pressure on credit quality overall. Table Economic Outlook For U.S. State And Local Governments Comment Downside (10-15%) Forecasts / Scenarios Baseline (65%-75%) Upside (15%-20%) Actual Macroeconomic indicators Real GDP (% change) Federal government purchases Forecast for stronger second-half 2014 growth will offset weaker-than-anticipated first quarter growth. Still, on an annualized basis, 2014 is shaping up to be one of overall slow growth. Reduced federal fiscal policy drag contributes to higher overall growth rate (3.69) (1.81) (2.44) (0.60) (2.07) (0.11) (5.20) OCTOBER 15,

6 Table Economic Outlook For U.S. State And Local Governments (cont.) Unemployment rate (%) Real consumer spending (% change) Housing starts (Mil.) Core CPI S&P 500 Common Stock Index Average monthly payroll additions top 200,000 from February throughout Some uncertainty has emerged about whether and how much slack remains in the labor force. Retail activity took a hit during the cold winter months, but recent indicators point to stronger trends into the summer. Rate of growth may be linked to sustainability of housing recovery. Modest downward adjustment to our forecast of housing starts for 2014, but still on pace to top the one-million threshold. Still far short of the 1.25 million that household formation rates could support. Essentially unchanged. Very low--below Fed target. Minimal formulaic cost driver implications. Bull market has surpassed five-year mark. It has been hovering near record high valuation levels since December, about when makets began exibiting greater price volatility. *U.S. Economic Forecast: Keep Calm And Carry On (June 25, 2014). CPI--Consumer price index The Regions New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) Credit conditions in New England remain stable as the recovery in the region's economy continues to progress at a modest pace. The region finally reached its prerecession peak in employment earlier this year, but we continue to believe future growth will lag that of the nation, mainly due to demographic factors and lower labor force growth rates. Employment growth trails the nation in most industries, but the financial activities, manufacturing, and government sectors have remained particularly weak. Our data suggest that growth in total nonfarm employment will increase 1.28% in 2014 and 1.37% in 2015, both slightly higher than our earlier forecasts. Employment gains will concentrate in health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and the administrative support sectors, which are the region's most consistent drivers of economic growth. Nominally, the largest gains in total nonfarm employment will be in Massachusetts. On a percentage basis, Massachusetts (1.56%) has edged out New Hampshire (1.51%). Rhode Island (1.20%) is third, followed by Maine (1.19%), Connecticut (1.15%), and Vermont (0.84%). We have revised downward our regional GDP forecasts for 2014 and 2015, as housing starts and the associated economic activity have been lower than we initially projected. Our base-case forecast for New England is for economic growth of 1.4% in 2014, down from our July forecast of 1.9%. We do, however, anticipate an increase of 2.31% in real GDP in Nevertheless, we believe improved consumer spending and a stronger housing market will likely continue to translate into credit conditions that remain constant through our forecast period. According to our forecast, housing starts in 2015 will stay positive, fueled by gains in both single-family and multifamily construction activity. Thus, communities should continue to benefit from higher building fees and other ancillary revenues relative to years past. We revised downward the region's median home prices slightly; however, we forecast that they will remain positive in 2014 and increase further in Housing starts and higher median home prices bode well for a OCTOBER 15,

7 continued recovery in local assessed values. Because property taxes are the primary revenue source for local governments in New England, stable real estate conditions are important when assessing a municipality's overall budgetary environment. Massachusetts has the largest economy in New England, and we project that it will remain among the healthiest, with real GDP growth of 2.52% in New Hampshire is also faring well on a percentage basis, with real GDP growth projected at 2.62% for This contrasts with Connecticut, the region's second-largest economy, where we forecast growth to be among the lowest in the country in 2015, at 1.96%. We expect that the regional unemployment rate will continue to decline, to 5.4% in 2015 from a projected 5.95% in 2014, but unemployment rates will vary across the region. Rhode Island, and to a lesser extent Connecticut, are the two remaining states lagging the national average. Mid-Atlantic (New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania) Growth in the Mid-Atlantic states continues to lag the rest of the nation, and while we expect economic growth to continue, we have revised most of our forecasts downward. The resilient New York City and Philadelphia economies continue to anchor the region, but stagnation in the manufacturing sectors in the western portion of New York and in Pennsylvania, as well as in the pharmaceutical, construction, and leisure and hospitality sectors in New Jersey is constraining overall growth. Once again, we lowered our estimates for real regional GDP growth for both 2014 and 2015, to 1.31% from 1.47%, respectively, from the 1.47% and 2.43% we projected last quarter. Employment growth also lags behind the rest of the nation: New York is the only state in the Mid-Atlantic region that has regained all of the jobs lost during the recession. We forecast that nonfarm employment will pick up slightly, to a rate of 0.94% in 2014 and 1.33% in 2015, which is slightly ahead of our expectations last quarter. The professional and business services and education and health services are the leading contributors to job growth across the region whereas the information, financial services, state and local government, and manufacturing sectors are constraining growth. As of May 2014, New York and New Jersey's unemployment rates, at 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively, remained above the national rate while Pennsylvania, at 5.8%, was below. We expect real personal income growth to accelerate to 2.22% in 2014 and 2.77% in 2015 from only 0.82% in However, while the 2014 projection reflects a pick-up from our last projection, we revised 2015 growth downward from 3.02%. We expect retail sales growth will pick up slightly in 2014, to 2.28% relative to the 1.64% we projected in June, but once again, we have revised downward our 2015 forecast, to 1.94% from 2.11%. With a number of New York counties and some local municipalities reliant on sales tax revenue, budgets with growth rates exceeding these assumptions could experience negative pressure. We project that home prices will remain relatively stagnant, with growth slowing to 2.08% in 2014 and 1.08% in 2015 from 2.80% in Housing starts will likely continue to show momentum, with growth of 23.6% in 2014 relative to 20.6% in 2013, but at a reduced pace of 7.4% in New Jersey's housing market continues to be the softest. As a judicial state, its foreclosure inventory remains the second highest in the nation, behind only Florida, due to the slow pace of foreclosures making their way through the judicial process. OCTOBER 15,

8 South Atlantic (Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia) We project that the South Atlantic region's credit conditions will continue to be positive and will outpace the rest of the Eastern Seaboard. While we revised the region's GDP downward, to 2.08% from 2.54% in 2014, it is still higher than the 1.43% and 1.31% growth rates we project for New England and the Mid-Atlantic, respectively. According to IHS Global Insight, Florida's GDP growth rate ranks third in the nation; the state is also benefiting from a real estate market rebound and an increase in construction activities. Apart from positive real estate performance, the GDP growth in states such as Georgia and North Carolina is also benefiting from gains in manufacturing, the service sectors, the and hospitality industry. Facebook has announced it will invest $500 million in a data center in Rutherford County, N.C. Georgia has also experienced an increase in investment -- in auto manufacturing activities with the new Kia plant in Troup County and various other smaller expansions. Our nonfarm employment growth rate projection for the region for 2014 and 2015 are similar to those provided in the third quarter forecast, at 1.82% and 2.07% respectively. We have revised the growth in financial sector employment up slightly, by one-fourth of a percentage point, to 1.61% in 2014; in the meantime, we project the growth rate will slow down to 0.85% in Federal employment in Washington D.C., Maryland, and Virginia continue to be sluggish due to sequestration; however, we've revised the projected decline in federal employment for 2014 to 1.84% from 2.08%. On the aggregate, our quarterly outlook for housing starts for the region remains positive, with a 2.46% increase for 2014 and a 31.31% increase for On a state basis, IHS Global Insight projects that Florida will lead the nation in housing starts in 2015, when measured by the number of units, followed by North Carolina and Georgia. The projection is not surprising given these states' growing economies, job opportunities, and relatively lower costs of living. Along with economic growth and lower unemployment rates, we project that retail sales will grow 2.50% in 2014 and 2.76% in 2015, reflecting an increase in disposable income. East South Central Region (Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee) Our quarterly outlook for the East South Central region indicates that several of the region's key economic indicators are following the trends we anticipated. Federal spending continues to decline, albeit at a slower rate; overall employment trends are positive; retail sales are growing, and residential development is picking up. In prior forecasts, we indicated that this region's economy would recover much more slowly than that of many others and would not reach pre-recessionary levels until sometime in With 2015 around the corner, we are waiting to see if this proves true. What we can state with confidence is that there has been sizeable improvement in most indicators, and this regional economy is poised for a comeback. Regional unemployment levels continue to decline, which we anticipated. By the same time next year, we expect regional unemployment to be below 7%. Steady growth in manufacturing-, education-, and health services-related employment are behind this trend. The East South Central region is a major player in the auto manufacturing industry, and several facilities have undergone or plan to undergo expansions. These expansions will boost output and provide job growth. We expect manufacturing-related employment to increase by as much as 2% by the fourth quarter of 2015 from the same time in Employment in the education and health services sectors has expanded for several years, and we anticipate this expansion will continue. Federal spending and employment continue to decline, which is no surprise, as this has been occurring for a while. Currently, we don't expect that this trend will turn around over the next OCTOBER 15,

9 year. So, while lower federal employment is a drag on the economy, the overall labor force for this region is growing, and that is favorable news. Retail spending for the East South Central region continues to rise, with current data suggesting that it could increase by another 2% by this time next year. Growth in this metric over the past several years is a clear indication that consumer sentiment has been and improving and will continue to do so. Data for housing starts still indicate strong growth in this region. In 2012 and 2013, housing starts were warming up, but it appears now to be taking off. Housing starts grew about 2% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and Since the fourth quarter of 2013, however, data indicate that housing starts have increased by almost 9%, and we expect even stronger growth for next year. We estimate that housing starts could grow by as much as 24% over the next 12 months. We attribute this region's much-improved housing market in large part to improved employment conditions, abundant and affordable land, and favorable housing prices. While housing prices remain relatively low relative to other regions, we anticipate that the median home price will increase. On the whole, the outlook for the East South Central region is bright, but if we dive deeper into these figures and trends, the results clearly vary on a state-by-state basis. Historically, Tennessee and Kentucky have led the region in economic growth in almost every sector. However, Alabama is starting to pick up steam despite some dips in in labor market growth. Government employment in Tennessee and Alabama has presented some challenges, and a decline in the professional and business services sector in Mississippi has adversely affected the state. All-in-all, we believe the economic strengths will continue to outweigh the weaknesses for this region. East North Central (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) While the national GDP outlook is stronger, we have revised downward our outlook for the East North Central region's GDP growth for 2014, to 1.30% from 1.89%. Despite overall growth in manufacturing and positive momentum in the housing center, the region still has slower growth projections than other regions. Job growth is positive for the region, however, and we expect the unemployment rate to drop to 6.61% for 2014 from 8.08% in We project that the region's unemployment rate will remain just above the national average, but it won't be the highest, which indicates that factors other than the unemployment rate are driving slower growth. Higher concentration in manufacturing and slower population growth than other regions could be contributing factors. We expect positive manufacturing employment growth through 2014, at 1.63%, although this is lower than our previous projection of 1.79%. A resurgence in the auto industry has been positive for the region -- particularly for Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. However, reliance on the auto industry still leaves the region vulnerable to cyclicality. Wisconsin, which is more dependent on manufacturing, although less so on the auto industry, has positive but slower employment growth. Illinois, despite being the least manufacturing-reliant state in the region, ranks last in job creation. Net outward migration is slowing, likely linked in part to overall positive employment growth for the region, but migration still remains negative. As a whole, the region's population is growing, but certain rural and urban areas face overall projected population declines, aging demographics, or both. Some urban areas, such as Youngstown, Ohio; Steubenville, Ohio; and Saginaw, Mich., have faced population declines for decades, but the rate of those losses has slowed. While large factory closures may be in the past, these cities are still struggling to maintain younger populations. Similarly, the transition from the small, traditional family farm to larger farms with smaller families is not OCTOBER 15,

10 new. However, some rural areas still have slower birth rates and are losing young workers to more urban areas. Given our outlook for the national economy and positive growth projections for the East North Central region, we do not expect a large exodus from the region but, rather, more stable to slightly positive population growth. However, we do expect that local governments and school districts in declining areas will face challenges over the next few years to finance legacy retiree benefits from smaller tax bases and maintain school facilities with the diminished state funding from lower enrollment. While GDP growth is slower for the region than the nation as a whole, it still benefits from the national housing market recovery. Our home price estimates for the region are up, to 3.9% growth for 2014 compared with prior estimates of 3.46%. Real retail sales projections are also up, to 1.89% from 1.32%, indicating overall sales tax growth. The region's local governments have already benefited from both income tax growth, as employment has recovered, and sales tax growth amid more positive consumer sentiment. Some local governments have already benefited from the housing recovery in 2014, and we expect that local property tax revenues will also grow as property values appreciate in 2015 and We expect that East North Central local governments overall will benefit from revenue growth given positive economic trends. Like their counterparts in other regions, a struggle whether to save funds for a "rainy day" or to apply revenue growth to reinvest in the community via spending on infrastructure or increasing service levels will remain. Given the region's relative growth rate and dependence on more cyclical industries, we expect that management teams will be cautious but optimistic. West North Central (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota) Economic strengths that we observed in 2013 and in the early part of 2014, such as a strong energy sector, a robust farming economy, and a relatively stable manufacturing industry, will likely fuel regional growth for the remainder of 2014 and We expect that the region's GDP growth will be at 1.78% in 2014 and 2.86% in 2015, surpassing growth in four out of the nine regions. While growth prospect for the most key sectors of the economy are positive, reduced global demand for oil and falling oil prices could dampen the growth outlook for the region. Hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling, widely used in North Dakota, are expensive drilling techniques that are profitable only if the oil prices stay relatively high. If prices continue to fall, the production could slow down, which could negatively affect job creation and, depending on the magnitude, result in revenue losses for the governments. Notwithstanding the risk of higher volatility, employment conditions remained extremely strong in the natural resources and mining sector (mostly in North Dakota), which demonstrated double-digit growth in the first two quarters of Manufacturing is also a vital component to employment in most of the states in the West North Central region. The growth in manufacturing will likely pick up slightly, and the manufacturing sector will create more jobs than it did last year. North Dakota payrolls will likely expand at a very rapid pace, followed by Missouri and Minnesota. Aside from the uncertainty in the energy and mining sectors, regional employment gains will be concentrated mostly in professional and business services, education and health services, and construction. Following the prior year's trend, the unemployment rate in the region, at 4.84% in 2014 and at 4.47% in 2015, will continue to rank the best in the nation, driven by the stable economy and slow population and labor force growth. Other economic metrics in the region are mixed. Retail sales will continue their positive trajectory; however, cold OCTOBER 15,