WELCOME TO THIS FREE SAMPLE REVIEW FROM THE SECRET BETTING CLUB

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1 WELCOME TO THIS FREE SAMPLE REVIEW FROM THE SECRET BETTING CLUB Thanks for downloading this Free Secret Betting Club PDF, which features our original review of the Bet Alchemist tipster service as first published in January This review is typical of unique content and in-depth tipster analysis we publish on a regular basis, all designed to help you make money betting. If you enjoy this review and are after dedicated, independent help with your betting then please do consider a full Secret Betting Club membership, where you can read hundreds more in-depth tipster reviews like this. Best Regards, Peter Ling Secret Betting Club Editor Page 1

2 SECRET BETTING CLUB SAMPLE REVIEW: Bet Alchemist First published January 2015 Here at SBC we review many new tipster services, publishing our findings via detailed reports which are found in our regular betting magazines. In the following example, we tackle the Bet Alchemist tipster service in a review first published for SBC members only to view in January Alongside this original review, for every tipster service we analyse we also continually update on their performance via our regular 'Tipster Profit Reports'. These reports list each tipsters latest results alongside just how they fare in comparison to other tipsters via our special league tables! Don t forget either that the Secret Betting Club is 100% independent, so you can be assured that what we say is the honest truth. Unlike other review services we do not take fees or a cut of sales for writing a positive review. So for more information on how we can help you make money betting please visit and start your membership straight away! REVIEW: BET ALCHEMIST REVIEWER: ROWAN DAY DATA ANALYSIS: NICK WARD HIGH VOLUME RACING SERVICE SHOWING TREMENDOUS PROFITS TO DATE Service Name: Bet Alchemist Website: info@betalchemist.com Bet Delivery: and posted in member s area of website Sports Covered: Horse Racing Bet Frequency: Average of 12 bets/week Pricing: 15 for first month, then 30/month or 79/quarter SBC Discount: 50% discount on your first month available for SBC members only Service In Brief: Ireland-based horse racing tipster, advising most bets each way with prices within the longer odds ranges. The Bet Alchemist service started issuing betting advice to the public in December Service in Detail: Bet Alchemist is run by 40 year old Nicky Doyle. Based in Kilkenny, Nicky grew up in the heart of horse racing country in County Wexford. With this background and influenced during his formative years by his racing-crazy elder brothers, he was always destined to play some sort of role in the sport of kings. Not only does Nicky now run the Bet Alchemist service, but he has also joined the ranks of racehorse owners and has the lofty ambition of owning shares in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Festival winner. You can find more of Nicky s story on the Bet Alchemist website, where you will also find a regularly updated blog that takes a look at some of the big races and provides free tips. In addition, there is a list of horses to follow that are discussed in an Eyecatchers section, and a full break down of service results. Nicky s enthusiasm for the sport shines through strongly on these pages, and it s good to see a comprehensive site that offers more than just a link to a Join Up page. Subscribers to Bet Alchemist will receive advice on horses running both on the flat aswell as over jumps, but there have only been two bets on the all weather since the service started two years ago. Nicky deliberately concentrates his efforts on the bigger meetings and Festivals which theoretically should mean stronger markets for the punter. This strategy means that bets are Page 2

3 not received every day, but members can expect to be busy at weekends and during the big midweek meetings. There are also antepost positions that members are advised to take, particularly in the build up to Cheltenham in March. Approximately 80% of all bets are advised each way, the rest being win only with the occasional multiple bet thrown in. The average odds for the each way and win bets stands at 11.2/1, so we can see that Nicky likes to play at longer prices. The winning strike rate for the each way picks is currently 10.9% (with 33.3% of these selections placing), and 28% for those horses advised win only. Tips are sent to members by and are also posted in the Member s Area of the website. s are generally sent between and 11.00am on the days bets are issued, although best efforts are made to send through bet details the evening before racing, between 7.00 and 7.30pm, conscious as Nicky is that most of his subscribers are at work during normal office hours. The contains simple instructions for each bet, as we can see: Bet Alchemist latest Selections can be found below: Advised Monday Morning 29th December Leopardstown - 14:00 ½ Point *EW A Sizing Network (7/1 Boylesports & Ladbrokes else 13/2 generally, use *B.O.G) Leopardstown - 15:05 1 Point Win Mala Beach (4/1 generally, use *B.O.G) Limerick - 15:20 ½ Point *EW Zekarya (6/1 generally, use *B.O.G) If joining up with Bet Alchemist, the first month is offered at a discount rate of 15. After that, if paying monthly the price rises to 30/month, or alternatively there is the option of paying quarterly at 79/quarter. This means the service currently falls into our Low Cost category and certainly represents strong value, based on performance to date. Please note however that prices for subscriptions are due to rise from 2 nd March to 39/month or 95/quarter. Service Proofing: Bet Alchemist have been proofing all selections to the SBC since October We have also asked a member of our team, Gregor, to track the performance of all bets between November 2013 and November All of this combined has provided a fully detailed record of bets from the Bet Alchemist website to analyse. Service Results: The official figures recorded by Bet Alchemist do carry the benefit of having the Best Odds Guaranteed concession applied. However, we feel this is of minor significance, for when we analyze what is a fair-sized sample of 1,364 bets, we see that 84% of all winners shorten in price from the odds quoted in the s. It should be noted that credit is due to Nicky, who does account for Rule 4 deductions when keeping official performance records, something that many horse racing services decline to do. Performance Summary Bets Stake Av Odds Strike Rate P/L ROI ROC % % 23.0% % % 114.0% % % 173.7% Total % % 310.8% Note: Analysis covers period from start of the service (Dec12) to end of Average odds shown as decimal, i.e = 11/1. Return on Capital (ROC) based on 100 point bank. Page 3

4 We can see that the figures returned are very impressive; an ROI of 21.7% highlights the considerable potential of the Bet Alchemist service, as does the fact that a starting bank of 100 points has more than tripled in just over two years of betting. As you would expect from such figures, the graph charting betting performance looks impressive: The level of consistency that Bet Alchemist has been able to achieve over the past twelve months is admirable. After a relatively choppy period between May 2013 and January 2014, the service has produced a remarkable run of eleven profitable months, which is some achievement when you remember that the average price for each selection is above 11/1. Monthly Performance Bets Stake Strike Rate P/L ROI Dec % % Jan % % Feb % % Mar % % Apr % % May % % Jun % % Jul % % Aug % % Sep % % Oct % % Nov % % Dec % % Jan % % Feb % % Mar % % Apr % % May % % Jun % % Jul % % Aug % % Sep % % Oct % % Nov % % Page 4

5 Dec % % Total % % Note: Largest drawdown so far was 40.2 points over period 5/5/13 to 30/8/13 (245 bets) The majority of selections are advised each way, and a strike rate of 33.3% for such bets providing a return on the place part has facilitated a smoother ride to profit for followers. Advised Bet Type Bets Stake Av Odds SR Win SR (Place) P/L ROI Each Way % 33.3% % Win Only % % Multiples % Note: Multiples = doubles, Yankees, trixies, super Heinz bets generally taken at major festivals Performance in Ireland: As previously noted, Nicky was born and raised in Ireland and when we analyzed his results, it was notable that a good number of his bets have been struck in races on the Emerald Isle. Perhaps only fellow Irish tipster Will Lattimore carries a higher proportion of bets in Irish racing. With this in mind we broke down the results to separate those achieved in Ireland from those bets on runners in the UK and elsewhere. Performance by Country Bets Stake Strike Rate P/L ROI UK % % Ireland % % Other % % Note: Multiples excluded from this analysis. Other is mix of France, Dubai, US and Asian race tracks An ROI of 41.4% and a level of profit that accounts for 84.74% of total service profit demonstrates clearly that Nicky is able to fully exploit his in depth knowledge of Irish racing to the benefit of his subscribers. We asked Nicky if there are any obvious reasons for the huge edge he apparently holds in his home country. Here is what he said: The main reason is that over years I have got a good handle on how Irish Trainers work and place their horses to best affect. Being based in Ireland I go racing quite a bit and it s a big advantage to have laid eyes on the National Hunt horses. For example small or average sized chasers find the fences at our top tracks much harder work than at others. Nicky also told us that he has expanded his knowledge of UK racing and in fact finds it a slightly easier environment to tip in due to what are, in the main, stronger markets. It s good to know however, that he has such expertise in Ireland and this may be a consideration for followers of UK tipsters looking for some level of diversity within their horse racing portfolio. Betting Bank: We recommend a bank of 100 points for following Bet Alchemist, which is based on simulations and a comparison with other horse racing services of a similar profile. This is higher than the 80 points that Nicky himself suggests, but as you know we always prefer to err on the side of caution, especially until we have followed a service for some time and allowed confidence to grow. An 80 point bank we see as just about acceptable, but representing the bare minimum required. Page 5

6 The largest drawdown so far has been 40.2 points, suffered between early May and the end of August Odds Availability: To help observe price availability, we asked our service tester, Gregor to keep an accurate record of the prices he was able to track at the time of advice. Gregor's record is actually marginally better than the official profit and loss records kept by Bet Alchemist for the period November 2013 to November We asked Nicky for his thoughts on the issue of odds availability: I have noticed the following from experience. On Irish Racing the prices can shorten quicker than in UK racing. Overall, we do not affect the market and the times I thought we had were just coincidence when we clashed with other higher profile tipsters like Pricewise, Hugh Taylor, Gary O Brien (ATR), Ben Linfoot (Sportinglife) etc. Gary O Brien s tips on Irish racing have a dramatic affect and I m always delighted when he picks a different selection to ours. Similarly, I make a point of getting our selections out before Pricewise on Friday Nights in case our selections clash. A good example was our latest winner Hawkes Point which we tipped up at 12/1 last Friday at 7pm. Even before the pricewise column went live at 8pm the price was already collapsing on Hawkes Point as racing post staff or racing post publishers got on before the public. Overall, > 90% of our bets remain available at the advised prices when not clashing with high profile tipsters. Within each tip , a horse s price is often printed in bold type, indicating the preferred bookmaker with which the subscriber should back the horse if possible. However, in terms of recording the official results, Nicky does not necessarily use this standout price. Asked for clarification on his policy for recording odds, he said: The prices highlighted in Bold are the recommended prices to take but of course some punters will not have multiple betting accounts so I included the next best available too. When recording the prices in my results I will use the bold prices if they hold up for minutes after the bets go live. I place my own bets after the bets go live so if I cannot get on when only one bookmaker is top price I mark down the result using the next best prices that I manage to back the selections at. Usually, when just the one bookmaker is offering top odds I will check the prices 15 minutes after the bets go live on Oddschecker and accept the best prices on offer. I ve no issue marking down a winner at 12/1 if that was the price most punters could only achieve. Page 6

7 Service Practicality: It is always beneficial to have access to as many different bookmaker accounts as possible when following a horse racing tipster. Nicky is no different from many others in using a spread of books as a source for securing the best possible odds on his selections. One suggestion we make is for the worst of these Stan James and Boylesports (by dint of both reputation and the findings of our members voting in the 2015 Betting Awards survey) to be dropped from the rosta. Service In Summary: Bet Alchemist is a service of many obvious positives. The performance figures after 1,300+ bets are impressive. It is a well organised service, and pricing levels are set at an affordable level. If the current levels of performance can be maintained, then there is definite potential for inclusion of Bet Alchemist in the Hall of Fame. Prior to such a move being made, we would first like to further analyse the issue of odds availability. Certainly it appears that Nicky himself is refusing to sit on his laurels and is looking to improve the service. The website is shortly to be revamped and although subscription prices are due to rise, Nicky has shown his awareness of the importance of customer service by freezing the current prices for life for those members who have joined before this impending sales relaunch. He has also made it clear that SBC members who join up can do so at the current pricing level, including the discount for the first month s membership. We have found Nicky very pleasant to deal with, providing full and comprehensive answers to any questions we have asked him. A real pride in his service is apparent, as is a desire to satisfy his customers. We await his new website with eager anticipation. To sum up then, in Bet Alchemist we have a service with real Hall of Fame potential, and we look forward to monitoring progress moving forwards. Service Ratings: Returns: 3/5/5. Risk: 2.5 Cost: 3.5 Transparency: 3.5 Odds Availability: 3 Page 7

8 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3 Customer service: 3.5 Overall: 3.5 Patience: 12 months Rating: Speculative Buy Betting Bank: 100 points Page 8