Airport Strategic Planning

Transcription

1 Airport Strategic Planning Dr. Richard de Neufville Professor of Systems Engineering and Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Outline of Introduction The Vision The Context The Problem Fixed Master Plan Management Commitment to Plan Inflexibility ; Losses The Solution: Dynamic Strategic Planning Recognition of Risk as Reality of Planning Analysis of Situation Flexible, Dynamic Planning Miami Used as an Example

2 The Vision A significantly improved approach to Airport Systems Planning that realistically accounts for rapid changes in the economy airline routes and alliances airport competitors (regional and local) and technology The Context The Traditional Approach is a Master Plan e.g.: US Federal Aviation Advisory Circular 150/5070-6A Or: ICAO Airport Planning Manual, Part 1, Master Planning The development of a Master Plan involves Defining the Forecast (pick one) Examining Alternatives ways of development for THAT FORECAST Selecting a SINGLE SEQUENCE OF DEVELOPMENT with no examination of alternative scenarios

3 The Problem The Master Plan does not anticipate RISK of possible changes in market conditions, that is, of trend-breakers thus does not provide insurance against those real risks, is inflexible, and inherently unresponsive to the risks Master Plan for Miami typical Management furthermore may commit to plan concept (if not timing ) leading to resistance to change when it is needed The consequences are losses or extra costs ; losses of opportunities Examples of the Problem New Denver Management could not reduce initial size... Even when airlines not committed => unnecessary passenger building No back-up for failure of new technology (Bag System) Dallas / Fort Worth Gate Arrival Master Plan: No Provision for Transfer passengers, and huge unnecessary costs No provision for failure of technological leap (AirTrans) Miami No recognition of highway plans blocking airport access

4 Forecast versus Actual Operations after 5 years Airport Base Year Forecast Actual F/A Ratio Bangor, ME Bedford, MA Beverly, MA Hyannis, MA (a) Hyannis, MA (b) Nantucket, MA New Bedford, MA Norwood, MA Portland, ME Providence, RI Forecast versus Actual Operations after 10 years Airport Base Year Forecast Actual F/A Ratio Bangor, ME Bedford, MA Beverly, MA Hyannis, MA (a) Hyannis, MA (b) Nantucket, MA New Bedford, MA Norwood, MA Portland, ME Providence, RI

5 Forecast versus Actual Operations after 15 years Airport Base Year Forecast Actual F/A Ratio Bangor, ME Bedford, MA Beverly, MA Hyannis, MA (a) Hyannis, MA (b) Nantucket, MA New Bedford, MA Norwood, MA Portland, ME Providence, RI Forecast Unreliability Increases for Longer Planning Horizon Planning Horizon F/A Ratio Characteristics Years Average - 1 Range Std. Dev. Error Range Five % Ten % Fifteen %

6 Forecast versus Actual Projects after 5 years Airport Base Year Proposed Actual Projects F/A Ratio Forecast New Total Bangor, ME N/A N/A N/A N/A Beverly, MA Hyannis, MA Nantucket, MA N/A N/A N/A N/A New Bedford, MA Norwood, MA N/A N/A N/A N/A Providence, RI Forecast versus Actual Projects after 10 years Airport Base Year Proposed Actual Projects F/A Ratio Forecast New Total Bangor, ME Beverly, MA Hyannis, MA Nantucket, MA New Bedford, MA Norwood, MA Providence, RI

7 Forecast versus Actual Projects after 15 years Airport Base Year Proposed Actual Projects F/A Ratio Forecast New Total Bangor, ME Beverly, MA Hyannis, MA Nantucket, MA New Bedford, MA Norwood, MA Providence, RI Outline of Solution Dynamic Strategic Planning 3 Phases Recognition of Risk as Reality of Planning Analysis of Situation Flexible, Dynamic Planning -- designed to track real developments in air transport industry Compatible with Master Planning but Examine plans under various forecasts Analyze variety of development patterns, sequences Reallocate analytic effort from in depth examination of an unlikely future to many quick reviews likely to include actuality

8 Process of Dynamic Strategic Planning Recognizes Risk looks ahead at opportunities and threats of many scenarios accepts that future levels and types of traffic cannot be known Examines Complex Possible Developments Pure plans PLUS combinations of these: HYBRID solutions Chooses Flexibility Plans responsive to market, industry conditions These are necessarily HYBRID Commits only one period at a time Chess Analogy DYNAMIC STRATEGIC PLANNING IS LIKE PLAYING CHESS AS A GRAND MASTER -- YOU LOOK AHEAD MANY MOVES BUT ONLY DECIDE ONE MOVE AT A TIME. DYNAMIC STRATEGIC PLANNING COMPARES TO MASTER PLANNING AS GRAND MASTER CHESS COMPARES TO BEGINNER PLAY.

9 Phase 1: Recognition of Risk and Complexity Risk: Wide Range of Futures The Forecast is always wrong Extrapolations of past cannot anticipate the surprises that always occur somewhere Many extrapolations are possible for any historical record Complexity: Wide Range of Choices Number of Choices is Enormous Pure solutions only 1 or 2% of possibilities Most possibilities are hybrid, that combine elements of pure solutions Hybrid choices provide most flexibility Forecast Always Wrong Reason 1: Surprises Past trends always interrupted by surprises Major political, economic changes New airline alliances or plans Economic Booms or Recessions Reason 2: Ambiguity Many extrapolations possible from any historical data Many of these extrapolations are good to the extent that they satisfy usual statistical tests Yet these extrapolations will give quite different forecasts! Example: Miami Master Plan Forecasts

10 Rear View Mirror Analogy RELYING ON FORECASTS IS LIKE STEERING A CAR BY LOOKING IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR... SATISFACTORY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME, SO LONG AS TRENDS CONTINUE, BUT ONE SOON RUNS OFF THE ROAD. Complexity of Choices The Usual Error Polarized concepts, simple ideas Pure choices narrowly defined on a continuous path Examples of polarized concepts Dallas/Fort Worth -- Gate Arrival Concept Denver -- Multi-Airline Super-Hub Correct View: Hybrid plans that Combine concepts. These cater to different tendencies, thus allow the greatest flexibility and adjust easily to variety of possible industry futures

11 Hybrid Designs Combine Pure Concepts New York/LaGuardia: Finger Piers and Gate Arrival Paris/de Gaulle: Gate Arrivals. Transporters, Finger, and soon satellite buildings Chicago/O Hare (United): Gate Arrival and Midfield Are Inevitable -- The Pure concepts become inadequate for actual conditions Dallas/Fort Worth: Gate Arrival => Midfield (Delta; American?) Washington/Dulles: Transporters => + Gate Arrival => Midfield Phase 2: Analysis Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) Identifying Risks Decision Analysis of Possibilities Identification of Initial Phase and Potential Different Responses to Actual Events

12 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, & Threats Miami example: Present Positive: Strengths Strong Traffic, Major Transfer Hub Profitable Negative: Weaknesses Volatile Traffic, Dominant Client (American AL) Old Facilities, Limited Site Future Positive: Opportunities Growth of South American Economies Negative: Threats Competitive airports; Fickleness of Major Client Identifying Risks Competition International Airports: Atlanta, Orlando... Regional Airports: Hollywood/Ft. Lauderdale Dependence on Major Client with Alternatives Great financial demands -- US$ 3 Billion Long-term commitment? Change in Airline Industry Structure Shifting Airline Alliances New Airlines (Jet Blue, etc)

13 Decision Analysis of Possibilities Simple way of defining wide range of possible developments Over several periods Including Risks Standard Method Expected Results: NOT a Simple Plan: Do A in Period 1, B in Period 2,... A DYNAMIC PLAN: Do A in Period 1, BUT in Period 2 If Growth, do B If Stagnation, do C If Loss, do D Phase 3: Dynamic Strategic Planning The Choice Any Choice is a PORTFOLIO OF RISK Choices differ in their Likely benefits Performance over a range of futures The Plan Buys Insurance -- by building in flexibility Balances Level of Insurance to Nature of Risk Commits only to immediate first stage decisions Maintains Understanding of Need for Flexibility

14 The Best Choices Permit good Performance for range of futures Achieve Overall Best Performance by Building in Flexibility to adjust plan to actual situation is later periods -- this costs money Sacrificing Maximum Performance under some circumstances Buy Insurance in the form of flexibility; capacity to adjust easily to future situations Commit only to Immediate Period Decisions later in should depend on then actual situation Strategic Planning for Miami Master Plan Completed in 1994 Obsolete Accepted but recognized as Overtaken by Changes in Airline Industry Insensitive to realities of Access Constraints Strategic Plan Started in 1995 Focus on Key Decision points Which are major forks in road that shape future State decisions on highways, rail access Arrangements with major Airline Families Focus on Providing for Alternative Futures Space for New Megacarriers, Spine access system

15 Example of Flexible Plans: Paris/de Gaulle (Air France) Hybrid Design: Gate Arrival that permits Transporters as Needed Anticipation of Future Room for Expansion Provisions for Rail Access Investment according to need Easy to Change Design (as done) Example of Flexible Plans: Sydney Second Airport Hybrid Strategy: Maintain and Enhance Principal Airport Acquire Major Site Anticipation of Future New Site is Insurance against Need Cost small compared to Major Construction Investment According to Need Future Plans Easily Tailored to industry Structure, Traffic Levels

16 Example of Inflexible Plans: New Denver Pure Design: Multi-Airline Super-Hub But United Dominates Phase-out of Continental Massive Immediate Commitment Could not adjust to actual traffic Disadvantages of High Costs per Passenger Reliance on Untested Technology Failure of High-tech baggage system No effective fall-back position Example of Inflexible Plans: New York / Newark Pure Design: Unit Terminals, Satellites Unsuited for actual Transfer, International Traffic Use of 1950 s Terminal Premature Investments Terminal C Boarded up, unopened for decade Major changes required

17 Recommendation Evaluate Situation Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats Risks Analyze Possibilities Major Attention to Hybrid Options Match Physical Facilities to Industry Structure Current Major Clients Possible Future Clients Dynamic Strategic Plan Define Initial Commitment How Plan Can Develop to Meet Range of Possible Future Market Conditions