Mobile Developer Market Analysis October 2013 By Jeff Hadfield, CXO

Transcription

1 Mobile Developer Market Analysis October 2013 By Jeff Hadfield, CXO Developer Media s latest mobile developer study illuminates key insights to help marketers with messaging, perspective and strategy for this growing market. Results Analysis and Perspective Nearly All Developers Are Mobile Developers. We have seen some changes in the market since our last survey in early Our September 2013 study, based on a sample of over 20 million unique monthly developers who visit our sites, continues to show that developers are most likely to work on mobile projects in their spare time (52% vs. 47% in February). The number of developers producing mobile apps or mobile-friendly sites as part of their full-time job, along with other projects, declined to 32% from 38% in February. Most of that difference moved to Do you develop for mobile devices? (September 2013) 25% 19% developers who say they develop for mobile full-time up to 12% from 6% in March. As we reported in our results summary, 25% are not currently developing for mobile devices but plan to do so shortly. 56% are actively keeping mobile devices in mind, either through dedicated mobile apps (43%) or mobilefriendly web sites/web apps (13%). Since our February study, the number of developers not developing mobile apps and projects or planning to has declined 5.4% from 24.3% to 18.9%. Thus, 81% of developers are working on or planning mobile apps and projects. From February to September, we saw those not developing for mobile (firm nos ) declining by 5%, which is what we would expect. We did not see a statistically significant change (42% to 43%) from February to September in those developing apps for mobile devices. Inexplicably, however, we see a 6% decrease in those creating mobile-friendly web sites and apps without a corresponding increase in another category. We are going to follow up on this by asking the question in a different way and seeking more explanation. 13% 43% Yes Yes; mobile-friendly Web sites Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 1 No No, but I plan to start this year

2 Finally, the biggest increase we see is in those planning this year to start mobile development from 14% to 25%. It is possible that the definition of mobile development is shifting in developers minds to mean mobile-specific projects, not mobile-friendly projects, which would explain the decrease in mobile web friendly development and an increase in planning to. How are devs involved in professional mobile app development? Of those developers working on mobile apps, we ve seen some changes since the February study. We asked in what ways they professionally develop mobile apps and projects, and they said In what ways do you professionally develop mobile apps/projects? (September study) 5% 12% Full time 52% 32% As part of my full time job, not all but some of my work On my own time (moonlighting) Other How September February Difference Full time 12% 7% +5% As part of full time job 32% 38% -6% On my own time 52% 47% +5% Other 5% 13% -8% Since February, more are full time mobile devs, although it s still the smallest slice. The difference between those doing mobile development full time and those doing it as part of their full time jobs was almost the same, leading us to postulate that more devs are being tasked with focused mobile development at work. Also, that more are doing mobile development on their own time. At the same time, those performing unclassifiable mobile development has declined. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 2

3 Language and tool choices HTML5, despite its challenges, still represents the closest to a cross-platform solution mobile developers have; however, more developers prefer to build a native app where possible. Some developers have described to us how they build basic logic in a language common to multiple platforms, then customize the UI/UX for individual mobile OSes and platforms. (This is an emerging product segment we ve seen as well, where vendors offer platforms and solutions that do just that.) Our research reports 47% of developers prefer to create native apps meaning, applications written specifically for a mobile OS or platform. 35% prefer to create cross-platform apps, and 12% report they prefer both equally (which is, alas, not really what prefer means). Our impression based on related interviews and conversations is that those who prefer cross-platform apps do so because they don t have time or resources to create many native apps for multiple platforms. Of course, a native app can take advantage of device-specific capabilities like accelerometers, security features, and so on. The mobile space still represents a great opportunity for tools vendors. While many developers use tools specific to mobile development, including app usage analytics and ads/monetization, others still do not use tools. In fact, 54% are not currently using mobile-specific development tools and services. At this stage of the rapidly changing mobile development market, this represents opportunity, not a lack of interest. Current Mobile Platform Development Windows 8 (tablet) 0% 22% Windows Phone 8 18% 31% ios(ipad) 14% 24% ios(iphone) 13% 25% HTML5 Firefox OS 2% 35% 39% Feb Sept Blackberry 3% 4% Android Tablet 23% 41% Android Phone 34% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 3

4 As we described in the accompanying results summary report, we asked developers both what platforms they are currently targeting and what they plan to target. First we ll discuss what developers say they re currently targeting. Current Mobile Platform Usage As in our March analysis, we see Apple (ios) and Google s Android maintaining their dominance of mobile platform usage. Both phones and tablets from both companies dominate the market and, according to a Canaccord Genuity study (see The Globe and Mail source below), Apple and Samsung collect the entirety of the industry s profits. In March we might have given Blackberry a fighting chance; now, we think its planned exit from the consumer market (The Globe and Mail) means that only entrenched enterprise accounts will continue using it, and even they will be planning to adopt a different platform for corporate use. Of the platforms challenging ios/android dominance, we think only Windows 8 Tablet/Windows Phone 8 is likely to show substantial adoption. With Microsoft s planned platform consolidation and merging of the development tools, it becomes attractive to both developers and corporations. As mentioned elsewhere in this analysis, Android is showing dominance in units sold and this relates directly to developer interest. 80 percent of the smartphones shipped in Q ran Android (see the Verge article). TechCrunch (see below), reporting on the same IDC study, claims this is because of strong devices, affordable pricing, and variety. TechCrunch also notes the significant growth of Android from Q to Q2 2013, a 73.5% increase, and that Windows Phone, while still behind in market share (3.7% compared to ios s 13.5%), displayed significant year over year growth as well: 77.6%. Sources: In smartphone world, it s a two-horse race as BlackBerry falls further behind in The Globe and Mail, 15 Nov 13 at Nearly 80 percent of smartphones shipped last quarter ran Android, says IDC in The Verge, 7 Aug 2013 at Android Nears 80% Market Share In Global Smartphone Shipments, As ios And BlackBerry Share Slides, Per IDC in TechCrunch, 7 Aug 2013 at The dominant platform for developer interest, our study says, is Android. We noticed two key points here: first, there remains a significant difference in usage between Android phone and tablet platforms. Developers are more likely to target Android phones than tablets. In February, Android phone led by 18%; in September by 22%. The second key point: Android leads developer targeting by a significant margin over the third-place platform, HTML5, and over its closest market share competitor, ios. Developers are over twice as likely to be targeting Android phone than ios (iphone) 56% over 25% in our latest survey. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 4

5 As recent articles indicate (see box), Windows platforms show significant change from the February survey. Of course, since we did not ask about Windows 8 (tablet) in the February survey, we can t show any trend yet, but Windows Phone 8 continues to capture developer interest with a surprisingly strong increase in developer targeting. Why? Qualitative interviews and our analysis suggest three potential factors: 1. Microsoft s more frequent tool release schedule means it s more responsive to market trends, even if, as Microsoft engineer Scott Hanselman recently quipped at the Visual Studio 2013 launch event, The Internet ships faster than Visual Studio can. This market responsiveness results in better tools; better tools result in developer interest and experimentation. 2. Enterprise friendliness: despite the increase in BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) acceptance and in competing vendors enterprise features, Microsoft is still a trusted enterprise provider. Its security and manageability capabilities are extremely enterprise friendly, especially for major, proprietary LOB apps, be they for mobile devices or for desktop/tablet hybrids. 3. Merging platforms and ease of cross-device development: Since Microsoft has promised to merge their product teams, marketing teams and tools for desktop, mobile and cloud development, developers may decide that building apps that can compile to multiple devices (each running Microsoft operating systems) As we said in the survey report, ios for both ipad and iphone shows growth, and both form factors show equal interest (the difference between the two percentages is not statistically significant). Developers remain interested in ios because of its app friendliness, its app-hungry installed base, and the opportunity for revenue even in a crowded app marketplace. HTML5, the closest to a cross-platform, multi-device platform developers currently have, continues to show strength, with a slight increase in usage from 35% in February to 39% in September. The growth in HTML5 interest has slowed, though, and we believe that this is because developers have had more time to work with HTML5. While HTML5 does promise cross-device and platform capability, just like other write once, run many technologies, it still requires some manual work to optimize for each platform. For simple, browser-based capabilities, especially for simple enterprise apps, many developers find HTML5 sufficient. For independent developers building consumer applications and for enterprise developers who need to take advantage of device capabilities (sensors, security, etc.), native apps remain the preference. Of the major platforms, we wanted to highlight Firefox OS and Blackberry even though they are well behind the others. In our February survey, Firefox OS had not been announced, but despite minimal marketing and its unavailability in the US (so far), Firefox OS is still garnering a tiny slice of developer attention. In contrast, Blackberry shows a virtually flat share from February to September: the increase is not statistically significant. Blackberry appears to capture the interest of only the faithful. (See box.) Planned Mobile Platform Usage Compare what developers say they re currently targeting, covered in the previous section, and what they say they plan to target. The general proportions and relative percentages among the various platforms remain largely consistent. (Note: As in any survey with this methodology, we caution that this measures developer intent and what they say, which does not necessarily reflect what they do. Still, this data is valuable in measuring overall developer mindshare and interest in various platforms.) There are a few exceptions, however. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 5

6 Windows 8 (tablet) 42% Windows Phone 8 16% 52% ios(ipad) 11% 39% ios(iphone) 9% 42% HTML5 Firefox OS 8% 21% 47% Feb Sept Blackberry 2% 4% Android Tablet 19% 56% Android Phone 22% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% One platform showing a significant delta is Windows 8 Tablet: there s a big increase from usage to intent to use from 22% to 44%. This is a notable increase for many factors as listed in the preceding section, as is the Windows Phone 8 interest a 20% increase from current usage, and a significant increase from the February survey. In February, only 16% of developers reported interest in future development on that platform. In September, 52% did. On the ios platform, the February numbers seem somewhat artificially low (due to technical errors on the survey), so instead, let s look at the current September numbers. The delta between currently targeting and plan to target is around 15%-17% for both ios platforms showing a continuing strong interest in the Apple app ecosystem. HTML5 shows strength at 47%, up from the 39% current use, but it s still not as high as we would have predicted. We discussed possible reasons in the preceding section. While HTML5 still shows promise for many solutions, it s not as much of a panacea as developers originally hoped. Interest in Firefox OS becomes statistically significant in the plan to use category at 8%; Blackberry remains flat at 4%. It would appear those currently developing for Blackberry intend to continue. Perhaps there is sufficient market for enterprises not ready to move from the platform. Finally, note that not only does Android (both phone and tablet) remain the leader, but those planning to target Android increases to 56% from 41% and Android phone targeting increases to 70% from 51%. See our comments earlier in the document as well. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 6

7 Types of mobile development As we have stated many times, it s easy to overlook the leading type of mobile development: apps for the enterprise. 55% of mobile apps are developed for internal use, our survey states. 38% of mobile apps are created for public release (for customers, via app stores, etc.). While the way we phrased the question does not break out the app uses underneath public release, other research suggests that most mobile apps are built for client use, not necessarily just for app stores. The key point here: developers are more likely to be building mobile apps for enterprise use than for use in an app store. We strongly advise our clients and partners to focus their mobile tools and services on the entire mobile development market, not just on developers building app-store, consumer apps. The dominance of enterprise mobile development also informs the buying process: enterprise tool purchases can take time to complete. As we counsel with overall development tools and services, remember that (1) developers may not be working immediately on the project that requires your offering and (2) the purchase cycle can take six months or more depending on the size of the purchase (see UBM study linked in the end notes). So, while development cycles continue to shorten, remember that enterprise development still operates more slowly than the individual developer. Marketing plans should be paced accordingly. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 7

8 Marketer Perspective and Recommendations Targeting isn t always the solution. As we reported in our March 2013 Mobile Developer Market Brief, nearly every developer is a mobile developer, but they may not call themselves such. Mobile has become so imbued in the broad development landscape that mobile development is just part of most developers day-to-day work. Since four of five developers are doing mobile development anyway, with the additional cost of targeted advertising messages, it doesn t make financial sense to try to target only mobile developers. (Plus, the technical reality of advertising targeting means that we can target by content, and even do some retargeting, but it remains a challenge to target based on demographic profiles.) Again, since 81% of developers are doing/planning mobile development (and we like to say the remainder will be doing so shortly whether they like it or not), realistically, all developers are mobile developers. As we recommended in March, until the final stages in the marketing funnel or buying process, it s not therefore cost-effective to try to target only mobile developers. Until those final stages, when you re trying to drive action and adoption, it makes no sense to target messages only to mobile developers or market only in the context of mobile development content. As we counsel our clients, targeting makes sense during later stages of engagement, where a sales/lead management function should kick in, but much less so when promoting overall awareness and understanding. Content marketing, of course, helps you target to your desired audience characteristics based on topic. For example, a mobile payment article would attract those seeking mobile payments; an article about design patterns for Windows Phone and Windows 8 (Windows Store) apps would attract those interested in Windows development. We caution, however, that you keep in mind the ultimate use case of your products: if you are creating tools, for example, that are used in industrial automation, a mobile angle to your marketing will take more thought than, say, broadly useful UI components designed to enable better user experiences. For solutions with broad use and appeal, time and effort spent on targeting may not be cost-effective. More specific solutions with more limited appeal will require more consideration. Fragmentation can be an opportunity. In an ideal world, there would be only one mobile platform, or, at least, one dominant platform. That was the vision behind Java and Microsoft s.net early on, but the world doesn t work that way. And despite current and past companies delusions of grandeur and market dominance, it has never been the case. Developer Media interviewed developers to get the story behind the numbers, and we found that developers with significant experience developing mobile apps note complexity and fragmentation. It s not as easy to develop for multiple mobile platforms as they d like it to be. (This is echoed by the CIO article citing Dimensional Research findings linked in the end notes as well.) So what we re left with are multiple platforms, multiple technologies and multiple devices. Even HTML5, for all of its cross-platform benefits, has its own set of challenges and flaws. This confusion and complexity provides ample opportunity for companies to offer solutions with real value to developers. And, as our interviews as well as the CIO article notes, developers are hungry for solutions to ease this pain. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 8

9 Rapid Change Reinforces Need for Roadmap Clarity We suggest a focus on tools that help developers as they do today s work with this caveat: you must provide a clear roadmap for your future plans. Why? Three reasons: First, our experience with developer marketing suggests that this has been effective during past times of rapid technical change. Second, our recent developer personality research suggests that your product story must include a roadmap for the future for developers to trust and engage. And third, in our interviews with developers during our qualitative research, developers talked about the importance of understanding how you plan your solutions and products to be useful in the future, not just now, especially if you have a subscription or SAAS solution. Thus, your marketing can and should focus on solving today s problems, but developers will be most likely to buy when you show context. For example, while Windows Phone continues to show potential, its low market share suggests that were you to offer a Windows Phone-specific tool, you should also offer tools for other platforms (HTML5, ios, Android) as well and show developers how those tools interrelate and save time. In this example, too, you may find it helpful to provide context for the future as well be it future Microsoft technologies or future cross-platform abilities. Rapid Change Means Opportunity While there are certainly dominant mobile operating systems, the market remains fluid. Changes continue. For example, while our research reports that Android dominates market share and ios dominates in app revenue (Developer Media studies; Vision Mobile (see end notes)). While one can debate details and individual study conclusions, Android and ios still dominate. Yet, emerging platforms like Windows Phone, with its promised future codebase merger with the larger Windows platform (possibly in Windows 9), represent an opportunity for enterprise developers and thereby, those who provide tools to those developers. So despite dominance from two mobile platforms, each of the other platforms is worth initial investigation for possible market opportunity. The reasons we advise companies to stay away from Blackberry are pretty self-evident, but the market share stagnation would be sufficient without the company s uncertain future. Disappointingly, promising new platforms like Firefox OS and Ubuntu (we didn t even list Ubuntu among our results because it had no response despite our hopes) are not stirring wide developer interest based on our findings. While these platforms offer technical and market advantages and development opportunities, developers aren t yet interested in targeting them. This could be due to lack of awareness, lack of widespread developer outreach, lack of local market phone availability, or other factors. This highlights the difficulty of launching new mobile platforms without significant marketing investment (and even sometimes with significant investment). Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 9

10 About Developer Media Developer Media is the world s leading media company focused entirely on software/app developers. They help tech vendors and advertisers, from startups to multinationals, build results-driven marketing programs especially designed to drive awareness and adoption of their developer tools, APIs and platforms. Developer Media reaches approximately 20 million unique software developers each month across over 4000 influential, dev-centric websites, blogs, projects and voices: the largest selection of quality, developer-focused media in the world. Each site is hand-selected for quality, content and performance. Through its flagship site, CodeProject, and other leading sites like CodeCall forums, CodePlex, W3Schools (developer-specific areas), and many more, Developer Media delivers awareness, understanding and engagement to its clients. A well-stocked arsenal of marketing programs and products help clients move prospects through the marketing and sales funnel to become customers. The Developer Media audience is worldwide, reflecting the general developer population. Visitors to its sites work for companies of all sizes and use many different tools and platforms. Professional developers -- the overwhelming majority of the Developer Media audience -- use not only Microsoft tools for enterprise development, but also tools and languages most suited for Web and mobile development (Ruby on rails, Objective C, NoSQL, Python, HTML5/CSS3, etc.) As the tech marketing experts, the Developer Media team brings decades of experience in the developer market -- on top of its exceptional reach into the developer space. They offer a mix of proven advertising options as well as unique solutions tailored to each client s goals. For more information, see Contact: Jeff Hadfield, CxO Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 10

11 Notes on Methodology September and March surveys are from proprietary Developer Media surveys, based on a sample of over 20 million unique monthly developers who visit our sites. The September survey yielded 374 respondents and was conducted on our flagship site, CodeProject. Projecting that sample against a population of approximately 4 million unique monthly visitors, we estimate about a 3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. In our experience with research on this audience, we ve seen little if any difference between random ( n- ) select samples and self-selecting samples; similarly we ve seen only minor differences between a CodeProject sample and a broader developer population. Still, with the theoretical limitations of our methodology in mind, we ve drawn conclusions and highlighted only trends and data that far exceed any potential statistical insignificance. Sources United Business Media (UBM) study referred to in the text is IT Buying Triggers: How Tech Purchases Are Ignited & How the Buy Goes Down, available at The Dimensional Research study referred to is quoted in CIO article Windows Developers Struggling With Mobile Apps, 17 Sept 2013 at The Vision Mobile study we mention in passing is worth a read as well for a different perspective on mobile app developers: the latest is Developer Economics Q3 2013: State of the Developer Nation, available (free) at Developer Media is a trademark of Developer Media and CodeProject is a registered trademark of CodeProject Solutions, Inc. All other trademarks used are the property of their respective owners. Developer Media Mobile Market Analysis Developer Media November 2013 Page 11