Chapter 10: Making Capital Investment Decisions

Transcription

1 Chapter 10: Making Capital Investment Decisions Faculty of Business Administration Lakehead University Spring 2003 May 21, 2003 Outline 10.1 Project Cash Flows: A First Look 10.2 Incremental Cash Flows 10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements and Project Cash Flows 10.4 More on Project Cash Flow 10.5 Alternative Definitions of Operating Cash Flows 10.6 Applying the Tax Shield Approach 10.7 Special Cases of Cash Flow Analysis 1

2 10.1 Project Cash Flow: A First Look Relevant cash flows for a project are those who increase the overall value of the firm. Relevant cash flows are called incremental cash flows. It may be cumbersome to calculate the future cash flows for the firm as a whole. Stand-alone principle: Once the project s effects on the firm s actual cash flows have been determined, it may be simpler to quantify the incremental cash flows and to consider the project as a minifirm Incremental Cash Flows Sunk costs should not be considered. Opportunity costs have to be considered. Side effects have to be considered. Net working capital changes have to be considered. Financing costs are not considered. Inflation must be considered. Government intervention, such as CCA, has to be considered. 3

3 10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements Suppose we believe we can sell 500 cans of crocodile soup per year at $4.30 per can. Each can costs $2.50 to produce. Fixed costs are $200 per year and the tax rate is 40%. The project has a three-year life. Investments are: $900 in equipment, which will depreciate to zero in a straight line over the project life ($300 per year). $200 in net working capital, which will be recovered at the end of the project Pro Forma Financial Statements Pro forma income statements are Year Sales 2,150 2,150 2,150 COGS (1,250) (1,250) (1,250) Fixed costs (200) (200) (200) Depreciation (300) (300) (300) EBIT Taxes (160) (160) (160) Net income

4 10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements Assets are Year Net working capital Net fixed assets Total assets 1, Pro Forma Financial Statements As we have seen earlier, CF(A) = OCF NWC NCS, where CF(A) Cash flow from assets; OCF Operating cash flow; NWC Additions to net working capital; NCS Net capital spending. 7

5 10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements In the present example, OCF = EBIT + Depreciation Taxes = = 540 in years 1, 2 and Pro Forma Financial Statements Additions to net working capital ( NWC) and net capital spending (NCS) are as follows: Year NWC NCS

6 10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements Notes: Net working capital is recovered at the end of the project. That is, the value of these assets is transferred to the parent company or converted to cash. Fixed assets could have been sold at market value in year 3. This is not the case here since we have assumed straight-line depreciation to zero Pro Forma Financial Statements Cash flows (from assets) are then: Year OCF NWC (200) NCS (900) Cash flow (1,100)

7 10.3 Pro Forma Financial Statements Using a discount of 10%, the net present value of this project is then NPV = 1, (1.1) (1.1) 3 = $393. Net present value is positive but we may want to have a look at the other measures Pro Forma Financial Statements Payback period = 2.02 years, Discounted payback period = 2.29 years PI = (1.1) 2 (1.1) 3 = , AAR = 900/2+200/4 = 0.46 IRR = 28.26%. 13

8 10.4 More on Project Cash Flow A closer look at net working capital. Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance 14 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Depreciation is a non-cash expense that reduces the pre-tax income. The depreciation rate that effectively affects the amount of taxes paid by the firm is the CCA rate. The CCA depreciation may differ from the accounting depreciation. Thus the CCA depreciation should be used in cash flow calculations instead of the accounting depreciation. 15

9 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Suppose Brutus, Inc., has a 5-year project where sales are expected to be as follows: Year Sales (in $) Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance The equipment purchased at the beginning of the project costs $500, and the CCA rate associate with it is 20%. This gives Year Beg. UCC CCA End. UCC

10 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Suppose also that variable costs are 1/3 of sales; fixed costs are $20 per year; tax rate is 36%; net working capital is $60 at time 0 and 20% of sales thereafter. salvage value of fixed assets is $ Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Brutus pro forma income statements are Year Sales Var. costs (160) (220) (270) (250) (240) Fixed costs (20) (20) (20) (20) (20) Depreciation (CCA) (50) (90) (72) (58) (46) EBIT Taxes (90) (119) (161) (152) (149) Net income

11 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance On the asset side, we have Year Net working capital (a) Change in NWC (12) (6) (b) NWC recovery 144 NWC ((a)-(b)) (12) (150) Net capital spending 500 (180) 20 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Operating cash flows are Year EBIT CCA Taxes (0) (90) (119) (161) (152) (149) OCF

12 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Cash flows are Year OCF NWC NCS CF Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance At a discount rate of 15%, the net present value of this project is NPV = (1.15) (1.15) (1.15) (1.15) 5 = $521. The IRR is 42% and the payback period is 2.37 years. Are we missing something? 23

13 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Regarding CCA, what happens when an asset is sold? When the asset is sold for less than its UCC, the difference depreciates forever (if the asset pool is not terminated). When the asset is sold for more than its UCC, the difference is subtracted from the value of the asset pool. In the Brutus example, the assets are sold for less than the UCC, and thus there will be further tax savings coming from the project. 24 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance In the Brutus example, the equipment s UCC after 5 years is expected to be $184 but the market value is expected to be $180. The difference, = 4, is then expected to depreciate forever, thus inducing tax savings into perpetuity. 25

14 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance Let T c denote the firm s tax rate (36% in this case) and let d denote the CCA rate (20% in this case). The tax savings arising from year 6 on are then T c d 4 in year 6, T c d (1 d)4 in year 7, T c d (1 d) 2 4 in year 8, T c d (1 d) 3 4 in year 9,. 26 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance As of year 5, the present value of this perpetuity is PV 5 = 4dT c 1 + r + (1 d)4dt c (1 + r) 2 + (1 d)2 4dT c (1 + r) 3 + (1 d)3 4dT c (1 + r) ( 1 = 4dT c 1 + r + 1 d ) (1 d)2 + (1 + r) 2 (1 + r) = 4dT c r ( d) = 4dT c r + d, and thus the project s NPV should also include 4dT c (r + d)(1 + r) 5 = ( )(1.15) 5 = $

15 Depreciation and Capital Cost Allowance To take into account all the tax savings arising from the purchase of assets for new projects, we will calculate OCF differently. This method will be called the tax shield approach Alternative Definitions of Operating Cash Flow Let S Sales, C Operating costs, D Depreciation for tax purposes, T c Corporate tax rate. Then EBIT = S C D and Taxes = T c (S C D). 29

16 10.5 Alternative Definitions of Operating Cash Flow Therefore, OCF = EBIT + D T c (S C D) = S C D + D T c (S C D) = (1 T c )(S C) + T c D. This way of calculating operating cash flow is called the tax shield approach The Tax Shield Approach Each year, cash flow from assets is CF = OCF NWC NCS = (1 T c )(S C) + T c D NWC NCS = (1 T c )(S C) NWC NCS + T c D. The problem can be simplified by treating depreciation separately from OCF. That is, NPV can be calculated as NPV = PV of (1 T c )(S C) PV of NWC PV of NCS + PV of CCA tax shield. 31

17 10.6 The Tax Shield Approach What is PV of CCA tax shield (CCATS)? Let A value of assets initially purchased, S salvage value of these assets at the end of the project, T c Corporate tax rate. d CCA rate, k discount rate, n asset life The Tax Shield Approach PV of CCATS As we have seen in Chapter 2, CCA depreciation is 0.5dA in year 1, 0.5d(1 d)a + 0.5dA in year 2, 0.5d(1 d) 2 A + 0.5d(1 d)a in year 3,. 33

18 10.6 The Tax Shield Approach PV of CCATS The tax shield arising from A is then 0.5T c da in year 1, 0.5T c d(1 d)a + 0.5T c da in year 2, 0.5T c d(1 d) 2 A + 0.5T c d(1 d)a in year 3,. 34 PV of CCATS 10.6 The Tax Shield Approach If these assets are never sold, the present value of the tax shield is PVCCATS = 0.5T cda k + d + = 0.5T cda k + d = 0.5T cda k + d = 0.5T cda k + d 0.5T c da (1 + k)(k + d) ( ) 1 + k ( ) 1 + k k ) ( 2 + k 1 + k = T cda k + d k 1 + k 35

19 PV of CCATS 10.6 The Tax Shield Approach When the assets are sold, their market value (S) is subtracted from the asset pool. That is, S won t depreciate forever. As of time n, the present value of the tax savings attributed to S is and thus T c ds k + d, PVCCATS = T cda( k) (k + d)(1 + k) T c ds (k + d)(1 + k) n The Tax Shield Approach In the Brutus example, Year (1 T c )(S C) NWC NCS PV of (1 T c )(S C) = 911, PV of NWC = 57, PV of NCS = 411, 37

20 and 10.6 The Tax Shield Approach PVCCATS = T cda( k) (k + d)(1 + k) T c ds (k + d)(1 + k) n Therefore, = = NPV = = $ (1.15) 5 38