Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Fall Term FES 814 MGT 563 Energy Systems Analysis

Transcription

1 Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Fall Term 2015 FES 814 MGT 563 Energy Systems Analysis Room: SOM Evans Hall, room 2400 Time: Monday pm (weekly) Wednesday pm (bi- to tri-weekly) Instructor: TF-1: TF-2: TF-3: add. grader: Office hours: Mondays and Tuesdays am 380 Edwards Street, Room 302, Tel: This 3 credit lecture course offers a systems analysis approach to describe and explain the basics of energy systems, including all forms of energy (fossil and renewable), all sectors/activities of energy production/conversion, and all end-uses, irrespective of the form of market transaction (commercial or noncommercial) or form of technology (traditional as well as novel advanced concepts) deployed. Students gain a comprehensive theoretical and empirical knowledge base from which to understand energy-environmental issues. Special attention is given to introduce students to formal methods used to analyze energy systems or individual energy projects and to discuss also traditionally lesser-discussed elements of energy systems. The deepening theme in the 2015 ESA class will be energy technology innovation and change (as the energy technology seminar will not be offered in 2016) and will be covered by a dedicated class session and invited guest speakers. Active student participation is encouraged, including voluntary (extra credit) research projects with class presentations and/or participation in student debates. Professional modules (held Wednesday evenings in addition to regular Monday classes) complement and deepen topics covered in class and offer a forum to present extra credit projects. Completion of 4 problem sets, a written mid-term, and a final written exam are mandatory. Given the large class size, dates of mid-term and final exams are fixed. Students are advised to plan their travels accordingly. The ESA class will not be offered in 2016 (visa-induced sabbatical). Therefore, in the Fall 2015 ESA is open to all interested students, including undergraduates. Room number and additional TFs will be announced separately on the class server depending on final class size. Registration (deadline: September 7 Labor Day) via the v2 classes server is therefore absolutely mandatory. Non registered students will not be admitted to class. Course Objectives FES 814a Energy Systems Analysis Fall 2015 Syllabus 9/12/2015 1

2 Develop comprehensive overview and understanding of energy systems, i.e. the interaction of social, economic, technological, and regulatory forces shaping energy demand and supply Gain an understanding of main data sources and methods used to analyze energy systems and their strengths and weaknesses Get introduced to major analytical concepts and tools used in energy systems and policy analysis Develop basic analytical skills to master energy conversions and other calculus needed for elementary energy policy or project analysis. Organization, Assignments and Evaluation The course consists of lectures given by the instructor and invited external speakers (typically scheduled around the Monday class). Class learning is complemented by self-study in form of required reading and solving 4 problem sets. Active student participation is encouraged: Voluntary extra credit projects (individual or in small teams) perform background research and report back in class in short presentations evidence and arguments associated with selected energy issues (e.g. energy take-back effects, risks of renewables, novel energy technologies, etc). Extra credits are awarded only after class presentations and debate material has been successfully iterated with and approved by the instructor. Additional professional modules (scheduled bi- to tri-weekly as extra class events on Wednesdays 6-9 pm) complement regular Monday classes and offer a forum for development of professional and analytical skills and for student extra credit project presentations. Timely delivery of the four problem sets as well as successful completion (minimum of 70%) of (written) mid-term and final exams are required for a positive class grade. Auditors are allowed only under most exceptional circumstances and have to participate in all classes, complete all class assignments (i.e. the 4 problem sets) and the mid-term exam and are dispensed only of the final exam. All class material, including all reading assignments are available at the ESA class website (via Yale's Classes Server). Readings (in reading order): Global Energy Assessment (GEA) and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2014: Energy Primer, text version for online textbook IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. [class bible and topic of mid-term exam], pp J. Koomey et al., 2002: Sorry, Wrong Number: The Use and Misuse of Numerical Facts in Analysis and Media Reporting of Energy Issues. Ann. Review Energy Environment 27: J. Macknick, 2009: Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emission Data Uncertainties. IR , International institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 55 pp. FES 814a Energy Systems Analysis Fall 2015 Syllabus 9/12/2015 2

3 L. Schipper, 1997: Life-styles and the Environment: The Case of Energy, Daedalus 125 (3): (National Academy Press reprint). H.-H. Rogner et al., 2012: Energy Resources, Chapter 7, Global Energy Assessment, GEA and Cambridge University Press, 90 pp. Holdren, J.P., Smith, K.R. et al., 2000: Energy, the Environment, and Health, Chapter 3, World Energy Assessment, UNDP, New York, pp N. Nakicenovic, A. Grubler, A. McDonald, 1998: Global Energy Perspectives, Chapter 4: Determinants of Future Energy Systems, Cambridge University Press, pp A. Grubler and C. Wilson (eds), 2014: Energy Technology Innovation Learning from Historical Successes and Failures, Chapter 1 and 2: Energy Technology Innovation, The Energy Technology Innovation System, Cambridge University Press, pp V. Ruttan, 2001, Technology, Growth, and Development, Chapter 3: The Process of Invention and Innovation, Oxford University Press, pp A. Grubler, 1996, Times for a Change, Daedalus 125(3):19-42 Additional background reading and introductory-level reading for the two climate change classes are also posted on the class server, but are not listed sperately here. Grading will be based on: 50% Problem sets 20% Mid-term exam 30% Final exam (student volunteer projects are for extra credit) FES 814a Energy Systems Analysis Fall 2015 Syllabus 9/12/2015 3

4 FES 814a - Energy Systems Analysis (ESA) Class Sessions: Monday pm, SOM Evans room 2400 Wednesday pm (dates and room specified below) (Note: topics and timing of guest lectures will be announced separately) September 7: Labor Day, class does not meet (make-up class: Wednesday, October 7) Deadline for ESA student registration via the v2 classes server. Non-registered students will not be admitted to class. September 14: Class Overview: (introduction by instructor, self-introduction of students, class logic and logistics). Introduction to Energy Systems: (definitions -system boundaries - types of conversions - heating values - emission factors). Required reading: Energy Primer Material: 814_0 and 814_1 September 16: SOM EVANS 4200 Professional Module 1: Basic calculus for ESA problem sets: Student- and TF-led reminder of high school calculus with on-hands training on your own laptop, including: Basic Excel features and functionalities; growth rates and discounting; elasticities, etc. Voluntary participation on a need basis! September 21: Fundamentals of Energy Systems I: (laws of thermodynamics - valuation of energy systems and their performance: energy, exergy, economic, environmental, efficiency, productivity). Required reading: Energy Primer Material: 814_2 September 28: Fundamentals of Energy Systems II: (energy systems constraints - comparison metrics [chain calculations, direct and indirect energy requirements, system comparisons] - energy, economic and environmental calculus). Required reading: Energy Primer Material: 814_3 Problem set 1 distributed. September 30: SOM Evans 2400 Professional Module 2: Energy data: Sources, uncertainties, analytical insights and pitfalls (Introduction by Instructor -- student extra credit project presentations -- wrapup by instructor). Required reading: Energy Primer, J. Koomey et al., Sorry, Wrong Number, J. Macknick, Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emission Data Uncertainties. October 5: Energy Systems Determinants 1: Demand (Overview of main determinants [demographic, economic, social/cultural, policy], overview of main demand categories, orders of magnitude, and specific determinants) FES 814a Energy Systems Analysis Fall 2015 Syllabus 9/12/2015 4

5 Required reading: L. Schipper, Lifestyles and the Environment, N. Nakicenovic, A. Grubler, A. McDonald, Global Energy Perspectives, Chapter 4: Determinants of Future Energy Systems. Material: 814_4 October 7: (Make-up class for Labor Day SOM Evans 2400) Energy Systems Determinants 1: Demand (continued) (Synopsis of main analytical tools to analyze energy demand in economics, industrial ecology, engineering, and social science.) Material 814_5 October 12: Energy Systems Determinants 2: Supply (Overview of main determinants [geology, technology, economics, policy] and resource inventory methodology and numbers, discussion of supply vs. environmental constraints framing resource availability). Required reading: Rogner et al., GEA Chapter 7, Energy Resources Material: 814_6 October 19: Energy systems determinants 3: Environment (Taxonomy of major environmental problems of energy production and use and strategies to address them: local - regional - global). Required reading: Holdren/Smith, Energy, the Environment and Health Material: 814_7 Problem set 1 due Problem set 2 distributed October 26: Wrap-up/catch-up class (1.5 hrs) Mid-term written exam (90 min after class, place t.b.d.) October 28: SOM Evans 2400 Professional Module 3: Presenting and debating energy issues (student extra credit project presentations and possibility for student debates on pro-contra topics agreed jointly between instructor and students) November 2: Energy Technology Innovation and Change: A Primer (overview of basic concepts: technology life-cycle, knowledge generation; diffusion; energy technology innovation: ETIS perspective; Assessing current global innovation efforts (and biases); major policy instruments and policy myths) Required reading: A. Grubler and C. Wilson (eds), Energy Technology Innovation, Chapter 1 and Chapter 2, pp.3-29 V. Ruttan, Chapter 3, The Process of Invention and Innovation, pp A. Grubler, Times for a Change. Material: 814_8 Problem set 2 due. Problem set 3 distributed. November 9: An introduction to energy models: (What is a model and what it is useful for - main types of models used for energy policy analysis [top-down versus bottom-up] - typical systems boundaries and input data - FES 814a Energy Systems Analysis Fall 2015 Syllabus 9/12/2015 5

6 example of a macro-economic energy-environmental model [DICE] and of engineering, bottom-up model [MESSAGE]). Material: 814_9 November 16: Financing Energy Investments: Guest lecture by Bill Ellis. (date to be confirmed). Material: 814_10 Problem set 3 due Problem set 4 distributed November 23: Fall recess (no class) November 30: Climate change 1: The basics (science and energy basics of climate change, impacts, and mitigation, overview of policy dilemmas: intravs. intergenerational equity (who causes and who suffers, who pays and who benefits) -uncertainty and policy delay vs. technological inertia and policy acceleration). Material: 814_11 Problem set 4 due December 7: Climate change 2: Insights from climate and policy models (overview of key concepts, their representation in models, and major policy insights, incl. multiple GHG species, radiative forcing, foresight & uncertainty, discounting, importance of lifestyles and technology, integration of climate with other policy objectives, GEA transition scenarios) Material: 814_12 December 9: FES Bowers and Sage classrooms Professional Module 4: Energy calculus and modeling Round tables organized on different energy calculus (exergy, models, financing, etc.) chaired by Instructor and current and past TFs and working through examples of energy calculus and example energy models December 14: Reading week (no class) December 18: Final Written Exam, 9-12 am, FES Bowers and Sage 24 FES 814a Energy Systems Analysis Fall 2015 Syllabus 9/12/2015 6