AIRDEV conference. Airport PPPs in challenging times transactions and changing business trends. Lisbon, April 2012

Transcription

1 AIRDEV conference Airport PPPs in challenging times transactions and changing business trends Lisbon, April 2012

2 ALG recent transaction advice projects Recent airport Due Diligence and Transaction Advic Portugal and Spain Handling Lisboa, Porto e Faro (Aviapartner, 2011) Madrid e Barcelona (Ferrovial, 2011) Aeroporto privado confidencial (Abu Dhabi Airports Company, 2009) BOT Murcia (Aeromur, ) Lleida ( Catalunha, 2008) Rest of Europe Regionais da França (cliente confidencial, 2011) Abertis (fundo privado de infra-estruturas, 2010) Roma (fundo de infra-estruturas italiano, 2008) Taszár (Hungria, Sedesa Concessões, 2007) London City (UK, Consórcio Franco-Espanhol, 2006) Bruxelas (Bélgica, Ferrovial Aeropuertos, 2005) Bratislava (Eslováquia, Abertis, 2005) Middle East Terminal do Kaia Hajj (Arábia Saudita, TBI, 2006) Asia Aeroporto Internacional de Clark (Filipinas, Metro-Pacific Investments Corp., 2011) ALG Europraxis is an Indra Group company Latin America BOT Porto Alegre (Brasil, cliente confidencial, ) concession Viracopos (Brasil, cliente confidencial, 2011) concession Aeroporto do Galeão (Brasil, cliente confidencial, 2011) BOT Natal (Brasil, cliente confidencial, 2011) BOT Cuzco (Peru, Proinversión, ) concession Manta (Equador, Governo do Equador, 2010) Privatização dos do sul do Peru (Proinversión, 2009) Cabo Frio (Brasil, cliente confidencial, 2010) Regionais de São Paulo (Brasil, cliente confidencial, 2010) 2

3 Contents Market overview Private investment in airport infrastructure Transaction trends Conclusions 3

5 Commercial aviation growth is strongly correlated with economic growth and resilient to successive crises World traffic evolution, RPK (trillion) CAGR last years 40 years 4,7% 30 years 6,7% 20 years 3,6% 10 years 3,6% Emerging countries are the drivers of global economic growth Cumulative growth est. Passengers (RPKs) and Freight (RTKs) vs Economic Drivers Source: ICAO, IMF, IATA, analysis ALG The aviation industry has historically shown great resilience to crises, having grown consistently for the last 5 decades The growth of passenger and freight traffic is highly correlated with GDP growth and with real consumer spending (available income) The market has a cyclical behavior, where short periods of crisis are followed by relatively long periods of strong growth 5

6 Worldwide the air passenger traffic has recovered to pre-crisis levels. Emerging markets are a key lever in this recovery Total air freight and passenger volumes Passenger traffic monthly ASKs Monthly traffic (billions) RPK Continuous average growth of 4-5% /p.a. since the deepest point of the crisis in 2009 FTK Jan 2008 Crash of Bear Stearns ASK growth rate Sep 2008 Crash of Lehman Brothers Apr 2010 Iceland ash cloud (WE airspace greatly affected for almost one week) Traffic up 13,7% Traffic up 5,4% 4,9% Passenger traffic (RPK) Freight traffic (RTK) Year on year comparison 2011 vs RPK growth rate 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -0,20% Africa 4,50% Asia/ Pacific 10,10% Europe Source: IATA s Financial Monitor, ALG analysis 14,40% Latin America 8,30% Middle East 3,50% N. America 6,40% Total Market Approximately 2 years of cumulative losses in Europe and the US In 2011 the air transport industry showed its resilience to the crisis, although with significant growth differences amongst regions The emerging economies are recovering at a much better pace than developed ones Latin America showed the highest growth in

7 The economic growth of developing countries will underpin future air traffic growth Air pax/ inhabitant (log scale) Air passengers per inhabitant (propensity to fly) vs. per capita GDP, ,00 1,00 0,10 0,01 Emerging economies India Mexico China Brazil New Zealand Spain Portugal Brazil 2010: 0,4 trips per inhabitant Latin America Other big markets World average Canadá GDP/capita (US$) USA Mature markets There is a clear correlation between the per capita income and propensity to fly, although with variations among different countries All emerging economies are in the region where small increases in per capita income result in significant improvements in passengers per inhabitant Other factors with strong influence in the expansion of aviation are the reduction of fares, the liberalization of air transport and the consequent development of supply For example a 50% increase in Brazilian GDP per capita (from the current US$ to ) could potentially result in an additional 120 million air passengers (increase from 0,4 to 1,0 trips per habitant) Source: FMI, IATA, ATI, ALG analysis 7

8 Which is reflected in industry traffic forecasts showing that passenger numbers will (still) be increasing fast Airbus traffic forecasts to % of 2009 World RPK % of 2029 World RPK Asia-Pacific 2009 traffic 2029 traffic +5.6% 27% 33% Europe +4.1% 28% 25% North America Middle East +6.8% +3.3% 20-year world annual traffic growth 4.8% 28% 6% 20% 9% Latin America +5.5% 5% 6% Africa +5.8% 3% 4% CIS +4.7% RPK (trilion) 3% 3% Source: Airbus 8

10 Private capital is being attracted to invest in airport infrastructure development for a number of reasons Major objectives leading governments to search for private partnership in airport business: Funding infrastructure/ capacity needs with private investment Finding financial resources in order to fund other government projects / priorities Improving airports a economic performance and level of service by involving an highly experienced airport operator Transferring airport project development risk to a private party Specificity of airport business is that the traffic, construction, operations and financing risks are usually fully transferred to the private partner within the limits of the risk mitigation scheme provided by the government Private partnership solutions may apply to Full airport infrastructures Specific airport infrastructures such as passenger terminals, cargo terminals, runways, etc 10

11 so who is investing in airport infrastructure? Aiport operators Financial institutions Contractors BAA Copenhagen Airport Fraport AG Schiphol Group AENA Aéroports de Paris YVRAS (Vancouver) Flughafen Zurich AG Singapore Changi Vienna Airport Malaysia Airports Holding TAV Airports Holding ADC & HAS Macquarie ABN AMRO Ventures BV Caisse des Depots Deutsche Asset Management GE Capital AXA Citigroup Global Infrastructure Partners Goldman Sachs Blackstone Investment Advent Abertis Ferrovial Aeropuertos Hochtief Vinci Group GTM TAV Alterra Partners Many private consortia have members of each of these groups 11

12 and how much they are spending in transport (and airport) infrastructure worldwide Company Investiment in Transport ( ) Of which airports 1º R$ Milhões 2º R$ Milhões 3º R$ Milhões 4º R$ Milhões Adquire British Airport Authority por R$ Milhões Hoje, BAA tem um volume de negócio de R$ Milhões e opera um volume de passageiros de 112 MPax Participa nos aeroportos de Sydney, Copenhague e Bruxelas, alem do Grupo Aeroportuario del Sudeste (México), operando anualmente aproximadamente 70 MPax Em 2007 vendeu DCA a Abertis por R$ 723 Milhões Está atualmente no negócio através da Hochtief (com um 30%) Gerencia três aeroportos em Camboja e oito aeroportos regionais na França, que representam cerca de 5 MPax 5º R$ Milhões Tem participações em seis aeroportos europeus, com volume de 89 MPax 6º R$ Milhões 7º R$ Milhões Através da Abertis Airports tem investido R$ Milhões. Hoje, administra 29 aeroportos com volume de mais de 56 Mpax e obtém receitas de R$ 697 Milhões com EBITDA de R$ 243 Milhões Entrou no negócio aeroportuário em 2005, com a participação no consórcio Hermes Airports, concessionária de 2 aeroportos em Chipre 8º R$ Milhões Tem participação de 33% no aeroporto de Toluca, 2º aeroporto de México D.F. 9º R$ Milhões Participação de 15% em SCL, concessionário do terminal de Santiago de Chile e de 45% no BOT para o aeroporto de Castellón 12

13 How is private investment placed? There are four large types of private investment vehicles in the airport industry Type of involvement of private sector in airport transactions Type of involvement Description Risk profile Duration Increasing risk level for private investor Management contract BOT/ concession type Trade sale Private investor runs airport infrastructure or part of it. For example: terminal or retail area. No ownership of infrastructure Private investor(s) is awarded concession to operate and manage infrastructure. A number of alternatives are possible: DBFOT, BOO, BTO, Significant share (minority or majority) of airport company sold directly to private investors Private operator brings operational and management knowledge. Can be incentivized for good performance Private investor has mandatory investment level in infrastructure under BOT (Build Operate Transfer) scheme. Airport reverts to government at end of concession Private investors usually bring operational and managerial experience and access to capital short to medium term (4 to 10 years) long period, usually 20 to 40 years (necessary to make return on investment in infrastructure) n.a. Share flotation/ IPO Shares sold on stock exchange Risk transferred to new shareholders depending on share of equity placed n.a. 13

14 which have been applied widely across the world Listing (non-exhaustive) of private involvement in airport infrastructure Type of involvement Airport Investor Deal details Management contract Dakar, Senegal Cairo, Egypt Brazzaville, Pointe-Noire, Congo Marsa Alam, Egypt Jeddah+Ryad, KSA Damman, KSA Fraport Fraport Egis AdP Management Fraport Changi 25-year contract, operation of new airport 8+2 year contract 25-year contract, new airport to be built n.a. 5-year contract 5-year contract BOT/ concession type Enfidha+Monastir, Tunisia Lima, Peru Nantes, France Larnaca+Paphos, Cyprus Athens, Greece Delhi, India Budapest, Hungary TAV Fraport, Bechtel Vinci Bouygues Hochtief GMR, Fraport Hochtief 40-year concession, started year, started year, started year, started year, started year extension, %-1 share, 75-year concession Trade sale ACSA, South Africa BAA, UK (ii) London City, UK Gatwick, UK Sydney, Australia Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Germany Hannover, Germany Brussels, Belgium AdR (Roma airports) Ferrovial, others GIP GIP Macquarie, Hochtief Hochtief Fraport Macquarie Acquisition 20%-stake 1998 (already sold 2005) majority of equity, delisting, % stake 100% stake, 25% later sold to investor 100% stake 49% stake at each airport 30% stake 70% stake Share flotation/ IPO BAA, UK (i) AdP, France Frankfurt, Germany IPO majority IPO minority IPO minority Listed in the London stock exchange, 1987 Listed in the Paris stock exchange, 2006 Listed in the Frankfurt stock exchange,

15 still private investors prefer taking less risk in riskier regions (or so perceived) favoring management contracts with guaranteed returns Example of Africa s airport transactions Type of involvement Airport Investor Deal details Management contract Dakar, Senegal Cairo, Egypt Brazzaville, Pointe-Noire, Congo Marsa Alam, Egypt Fraport Fraport Egis AdP Management 25-year contract, operation of new airport 8+2 year contract 25-year contract, new airport to be built n.a BOT/ concession type Trade sale Enfidha+Monastir, Tunisia TAV 40-year concession, started 2006 ACSA, South Africa AdR (Roma airports) Acquisition 20%-stake 1998 (already sold 2005) 15

17 Airport transactions PPPs, trade sales, IPOs - as a business solution in the airport industry only began in the late 80 s Between 1987 and 1995, the number of privatizations was limited only 13 transactions with reduced transaction values Between 1996 and 2001, due to traffic increase, the number of transactions under various schemes increased up to 55 transactions over the period. Transaction values were for the first time above 1 bnusd, although dependent on individual transactions After 09/11/2001 till 2004, the number of transactions slowed down significantly bnusd Deal flow: airport transaction values per year Source: Credit Suisse, AdPi 17

18 but despite its sophistication airport transactions are sensitive to the industryspecific and the wider economic context Deal flow: Number of airport transactions above 100mUSD since Sep / Financial and economic crisis After 2004, boosted by the debt market and traffic growth, the number of transactions increased again 2008 onwards The economic crisis slowed the number and value of transactions Since 2008 there were a number of aborted transactions: Hochtief Airports, Madrid and Barcelona, French regionals, etc.. Recovery is taking place in 2012 with processes in Brazil, Portugal (?) N. transactions 100% equity transfer Source: Crédit Suisse 18

19 The economic crisis also had an impact on airport valuation: EBITDA multiples have decreased significantly after 2008 Transaction Value / Last Twelve Months EBITDA Transaction valuation in large airport acquisition deals (+100 musd): EBITDA multiples and Financial leverage 10 to 12x Transaction date (?) Target AdR Sydney Brussels TBI Copenhagen Budapest BAA London City Exeter Budapest Gatwick ANA Buyer Leonardo Southern Cross (Macquarie + Hochtief) Macquarle ACDL (Abertis + AENA) Macquarle BAA ADI (Ferrovial + CDPQ + GIC) AIG + GIP Regional and city airports Hochtlef + GIC + CDPQ + KfW GIP (?) Transaction value ( m) 2,700 3,150 1,650 1,050 2,600 2,000 23,400 1, ,950 1,650 Share (%) 52% 100% 70% 100% 41% 75% 100% 100% 100% 75% 100% 100% PAX at acquisition (m) ,000 to 2,400 Source: HSBC,

20 Airport valuation: Changing airport financing and more challenging conditions: the fundamentals have not changed, but only the (financial) risk perception Transaction value Equity funding Debt funding Underwritting Minimum ICR (Interest Cover Ratio) Maturity Repayment Pricing Pre-crunch Up to 20-30x LTM EBITDA 10-14%x EBITDA 12-14% IRR Up to 100% of RAB (regulated) or 15x EBITDA (unregulated) Junior debt up to 2X EBITDA Yes (backed by securitisation) x for senior debt x for junior debt Up to 7-8 years Bullet and partial cash sweep Margin of bps for senior debt ( bps for junior) Current 9-13x LTM EBITDA 4-5x EBITDA 12-14% IRR Up to 80% of RAB (regulated) or 5-8x EBITDA (unregulated) Scarce junior debt capacity Yes (re-emergence of capacity) x for senior debt 5 years is now the norm More inerous cash sweep provisions emerging Margin of bps for senior debt Source: HSBC, 2010 Note: LTM Last Twelve Months RAB Regulated Asset Base EBITDA Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization Bps basis points (above LIBOR) 20

21 Despite the current negative conditions, the increased competition and the sector s inherent conditions (good long-term returns) have pushed EV/EBITDA in acquisitions to higher values than those currently traded (EV/EBITDA) multiples Concessions and direct sales 15 Stock listed airports (IPO) Recent market valuations Unweihted average 15x Currently accepted EBITDA multiples 10 Unweighted average(1) 8,2x Unweighted average 8,5x 5 0 Malaysia AIA VIE BIAC CFH BAA ADR Malaysia AIA Vienna BIAC CPH (1) Unweighted average IPO and concession values (2) LCY: EBITDA estimated by Morgan Stanley in 2006 BAA ADR Birmingham East Midlands Hannover Belfast Dusseldorf Prestwick Luton Beijing (ADP) ACSA Bristol Hamburg Wellington Canberra Argentina Melbourne Cardiff Collangaza SAVE Brisbane Darwin AP Perth Adelaide Budapest LCY (2) Long term concessions and trade sales have resulted in higher valuations than IPOs 21

22 At the end of the day, how are airports valued: Moody s global airport rating methodology can be used as a reference for analyzing an airport business proposition Source: Moody s 22

24 A new paradigm is emerging with the increase of private capital in the airport industry, the loss of exuberance in the markets and the Airports are becoming less of singe prized assets and more like traded commodities The increased capital needs and the different types of investment architecture and risk profile have attracted new types of investors e.g. contractors, pension funds There is a clear separation between airport managers and investors. For the first time in the industry you do NOT need to have expertise to own an airport The original goal of attracting private capital to build capacity is now becoming distorted. It is now becoming a cash source for governments in need e.g. Portugal Source: Credit Suisse, AdPi 24

25 Tiago Lopes LISBOA Tel: (+351) Fax (+351) BARCELONA BEIJING BILBAO BUENOS AIRES CARACAS DUBÁI LIMA LONDRES MADRID MÉXICO D.F. MILÁN PARÍS RABAT SAO PAULO 25