Pointofview. A Special Report on the Use of Social Media for Public and Political Discourse

Transcription

1 Pointofview A Special Report on the Use of Social Media for Public and Political Discourse

2 As more people go online everyday they are defining the issues we discuss and making their voices heard. In doing so they may be re-shaping politics, journalism and the very nature of our society. There are thousands of conversations happening about issues and organizations every day. Conversations that used to take place across tabletops and at water coolers are now happening online where the comments are permanently recorded and commenter s spheres of influence may spread quickly - far and wide. Many pundits and industry experts posit that one of the biggest areas of impact for the Internet and social media is for public discourse on public policy, social and political issues. But is this true? To help evolve our understanding in this area, Ipsos Public Affairs is tracking online behavior and use of online sites and social media as it relates to discussion about public policy, social and political issues. The data in this report was generated using our monthly Ipsos survey, which covers 24 countries around the world. The survey was conducted in March Our research revealed three key segments of online activity/behavior: ly Engaged includes those who report that in the past month they have started conversations or written original ideas about public policy, social or political issues or have commented on what others have written or posted about these issues or shared links to articles or information about public policy, social or political issues with others. ly Engaged represents those who have only read what others have posted about public policy, social or political issues in the past month. Not Engaged have done nothing online in the past month regarding public policy, social, and political issues. 2

3 Context Guiding our Analysis There are a couple of constructs and ideas that have helped to inform how we have approached our analysis. Internet Penetration (June 2012 estimates*) In Ipsos Public Affairs approach, we envision the three key pillars of behavior to be Capability, Opportunity and Motivation 1. In the realm of Capability and Opportunity, it is important to recognize that Internet use/penetration varies greatly across the countries we examined. This ranges from a high of over 90% in Sweden, to lows of 20% or less in Indonesia, South Africa and India. As far as motivation is concerned, we know, or at least assume, that the type of activity people are engaging in online is critical to evaluating its relevance in the sphere of politics and public policy. Someone who is ly Engaged online or in social media is either trying to influence/inform others, enjoys the banter of potential debate or simply wants to let their views be known. Someone who is more ly Engaged, is likely more interested in simply following an issue or staying informed. Sweden Great Britain South Korea Belgium Japan United States Argentina Hungary Poland Saudi Arabia Russia Turkey China Mexico Indonesia South Africa India 11% 22% 20% 49% 48% 46% 46% 40% 37% 67% 66% 65% 65% 58% 93% 89% 84% 84% 83% 83% 81% 80% 80% 78% *InternetWorldStats.com Conventional wisdom states that if you can mobilize a core group of people in a target audience to advocate for a particular belief, product or issue, then you are more likely to be successful in gaining the level of cohesiveness required to change public opinion or behaviour. This is more relevant today than at any time in the past because the evolving online world has the penetration and reach to make mobilization, expression of opinion, sharing of experiences, activism, and ultimately advocacy much easier than at any other time in history. This opens up a whole new world for public discourse, information, debate and behavioral impact. Consequently the following concept is critical to understanding the impact of social media on issues and public policy: IN LAY TERMS It can take as little as 10% of a population to change what the other 90% think and therefore do/behave. The 10% Tipping Point Principle 10% 90% IN ACADEMIC TERMS The prevailing majority opinion in a population can be rapidly reversed by a small fraction of randomly distributed committed agents (threshold approaching 10% of the population) who consistently proselytize the opposing opinion and are immune to influence. 2 IN LAY TERMS It can take as little as 10% of a population to change what the other 90% think and therefore do/behave. 1 Michie et al. Implementation Science 2011, 6:42, (23 April 2011) 2 Source: Social Consensus Through the influence of Committed Minorities; April 2011; J. Xie, S. Sreenivasan, G. Korniss, W. Zhang, C. Lim, B. K. Szymanski; Dept.s of Computer Science, Physics, Mathematics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180; Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer 3

4 Activity Online and in Social Media for Public Policy, Social and Political Issues So what is happening in the online and social media space in the area of public policy, social and political issues? Focusing solely on online populations, a ranking of countries reveals that the most Engaged users (either or ) in public policy, social and political issues are found in Indonesia, India, Turkey, South Africa and Poland. and replace Turkey and Poland in the top five in terms of being ly Engaged. The general trend appears to be inversely related to Internet penetration, with engagement decreasing as Internet penetration increases. This is something that is likely not that surprising given the impact of socioeconomics, the composition of early adopters and other factors in jurisdictions with more limited overall penetration. However, when we look at the percentage of active and passive users relative to the entire population of each country, many of the rankings change. South Korea,, Sweden,, and Poland have the highest proportions of their entire populations Engaged (either or ) in the past month in online public policy, social and political issues. Argentina and replace Sweden and Poland in the top five in terms of having the highest ly Engaged segment. Indonesia, South Africa and India drop to the bottom. Engagement/Activity Online/Social Media for Public Policy, Social, Political Issues Past Month = Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues and/or Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues and/or Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others; = Only read what others have posted about public/social/political issues; = None of the above Indonesia India Turkey South Africa Poland China Mexico Saudi Arabia South Korea Argentina Hungary Russia Sweden Great Britain United States Belgium Japan When it comes to public policy, social and/or political issues, which of the following have you done, if any, on social mediaoronline sources/sites in the past month? MULTI MENTION Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues, Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues, Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others, Read what others have posted about public/social/political issues, None of the above Engagement/Activity Online/Social Media for Public Policy, Social, Political Issues Past Month = Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues and/or Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues and/or Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others; = Only read what others have posted about public/social/political issues; = None of the above Translated back to the entire population South Korea Sweden Poland Argentina Great Britain Hungary United States Belgium Turkey SaudiArabia Russia Mexico China Japan Indonesia South Africa India When it comes to public policy, social and/or political issues, which of the following have you done, if any, on social mediaoronline sources/sites in the past month? MULTI MENTION Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues, Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues, Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others, Read what others have posted about public/social/political issues, None of the above 4

5 What Role Do Demographics Play? The data show very clearly that although citizens in some countries are more engaged with public policy and social issues online than are others, the online and social media world is clearly an important incubator for ideas and debate. In this context, expected trends emerge when looking at demographics for the 24 countries we sampled in. Unsurprisingly, ly Engaged citizens are led by younger citizens with higher income and education; although it is notable that a significant proportion of all demographic groups are ly Engaged. It is important to recognize, however, that aside from the general, overall demographic trend relating to education, other demographics such as income, age and gender do not necessarily apply across all individual countries. For example, gender plays a role in and (higher female ly Engaged) and and South Korea (higher male ly Engaged). Engagement/Activity Online/Social Media for Public Policy, Social, Political Issues Past Month Demographics = Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues and/or Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues and/or Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others; = Only read what others have posted about public/social/political issues; = None of the above 5

6 Similarly, the broad age trends do not apply as much in and South Korea (where there are few age differences). The impact of income also differs from the global average in the U.S,,, and (where there are few income differences), and in and (where the reverse trend is true ly Engaged citizens have lower income). It is worth mentioning here that the trend of using education as a proxy for income is becoming less and less relevant globally, partly supported by the data reported herein. Engagement/Activity Online/Social Media for Public Policy, Social, Political Issues Past Month Demographics Select Countries = Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues and/or Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues and/or Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others; = Only read what others have posted about public/social/political issues; = None of the above U.S. UK South Korea DEM C. When it comes to public policy, social and/or political issues, which of the following have you done, if any, on social mediaoronline sources/sites in the past month? MULTI MENTION Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues, Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues, Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others, Read what others have posted about public/social/political issues, None of the above 6

7 What Else Might be Related to Online Activity for Public Policy, Politics and Social Issues? There are almost an infinite number of variables and metrics that could be examined to see if they are related in some way to a propensity for online engagement in public policy, social and political issues. For example, democratic history and experience may play a role in online engagement and social media use. It is reasonable to assume that older democracies have a more established system of means, ways and channels for people to express their views and opinions than younger democracies. Therefore online media might provide more of a focal point for the latter than the former. Indeed, if we use years since the first general election as an indicator, it is interesting to find that with a few noteworthy exceptions, online communities in younger democracies do tend to be more ly Engaged online than those in older democracies for public policy, social and political issues. Could this also be an indication that citizens in older democracies are more apathetic about their rights and freedoms than citizens in younger democracies, and therefore less interested in online expression? Perhaps, but that is for further exploration. Many of the oldest democracies are the least active online when it comes to engaging online/social media for public policy, social and/or political issues = Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues and/or Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues and/or Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others India Indonesia South Africa Argentina Turkey Mexico Poland China Saudi Arabia South Korea Hungary United States Great Britain Sweden Russia Belgium Japan When it comes to public policy, social and/or political issues, which of the following have you done, if any, on social mediaoronline sources/sites in the past month? MULTI MENTION Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues, Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues, Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others, Read what others have posted about public/social/political issues, None of the above 7

8 A current hypothesis in online and social media research is that citizen venting online acts much like a canary in the coal mine; a mechanism for life or economic conditions faced by citizens. Assuming that the unemployment rate is one indicator that can reflect the health of an economy, the analysis does not show a strong relationship between a country s unemployment rate and the number of online ly Engaged citizens in the public policy, social and political issue arena. Engagement/Activity Online/Social Media for Public Policy, Social, Political Issues Past Month = Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues and/or Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues and/or Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others India Indonesia South Africa Argentina Turkey Mexico Poland China Saudi Arabia South Korea Hungary United States Great Britain Sweden Russia Belgium Japan When it comes to public policy, social and/or political issues, which of the following have you done, if any, on social mediaoronline sources/sites in the past month? MULTI MENTION Started conversations or written original ideas about public/social/political issues, Commented on what others have written or posted about public/social/political issues, Shared links to articles or information about public/social/political issues with others, Read what others have posted about public/social/political issues, None of the above 8

9 Although online populations are generally dissatisfied by their country direction and national economy on a global average, further analysis suggests that those who are ly Engaged, are more rather than less positive in their rating of their country s national economy. Interestingly enough though, overall satisfaction with country direction on a global average does not differ by online engagement at any level. Do Satisfaction with Country Direction and Economic Rating Differ by Engagement Online/Social Media? Satisfaction with Country Direction 24 Country Total Satisfied Dissatisfied Positive Negative Rate Condition of Current National Economy Like other analysis in this report, understanding the differences in satisfaction with country direction and national economy depends much on geography. For example, ly Engaged citizens are more positive than others with the direction of their country in,, and South Korea. They are also more positive than average in assessing their national economy in,, the U.K, and South Korea. Does Satisfaction with Country Direction Differ Engagement Online/Social Media? Does Rating of National Economy Differ by Engagement Online/Social Media? U.S. U.S. UK UK South Korea South Korea Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied 9

10 Do ly Engaged, ly Engaged and Not Engaged Segments Differ in their General Issue Concerns? ly Engaged citizens differ from others in some respects regarding the issues they are most concerned about. Some of this is, of course, based on the demographic skews of those who are ly Engaged. Nevertheless noting any differences remains important as it helps identify the potential tone, content and direction of any online discourse. Equally important, it is an indicator suggesting caution for decision-makers and influencers when (and if) they use what is happening online as a reflection of what is happening in the day-to-day lives of all citizens., the global average shows that ly Engaged citizens tend to assign a higher than average priority to issues associated with corruption and education, while the Not Engaged segment is a bit more focused on economic issues. However, the differences are more relative than absolute. Once again, country differences emerge in issue priorities by engagement. For example, issues associated with poverty/social inequality are clearly higher on the radar among the ly Engaged segments in the U.S.,, the U.K., and. Do Issue Priorities Differ by Engagement Online/Social Media? % Identify Issue in Top 3 Selected Issues 24 Country Total Total Unemployment and jobs Poverty and social inequality Corruption (financial or political) 48% 46% 49% 51% 39% 38% 42% 36% 32% 37% 33% 25% Crime and violence 31% 32% 31% 31% Healthcare 23% 22% 22% 24% Education 19% 21% 19% 17% Taxes 19% 17% 18% 24% Moral decline 17% 17% 18% 17% Threats against the environment Maintaining social programs 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10% 10% Immigration control 9% 7% 9% 13% Terrorism 8% 10% 9% 6% Rise of extremism 6% 6% 6% 6% Climate change 5% 5% 5% 6% 10

11 Do Issue Priorities Differ by Engagement Online/Social Media? % Identify Issue in Top 3 Selected Issues United States Total Total Unemployment and jobs 48% 48% 50% 48% 39% 40% 40% 37% Poverty and social inequality 17% 21% 13% 16% 27% 35% 22% 23% Corruption (financial or political) 24% 23% 24% 24% 28% 28% 30% 28% Crime and violence 22% 20% 20% 27% 20% 14% 23% 22% Healthcare 36% 34% 35% 39% 41% 37% 37% 49% Education 16% 17% 20% 13% 19% 23% 18% 17% Taxes 30% 27% 33% 30% 30% 25% 33% 34% Moral decline 23% 26% 26% 18% 11% 11% 11% 12% Threats against the environment 4% 5% 3% 5% 16% 20% 16% 11% Maintaining social programs 9% 15% 7% 6% 9% 9% 9% 8% Immigration control 17% 15% 19% 17% 15% 16% 15% 14% Terrorism 12% 7% 14% 15% 3% 3% 2% 4% Rise of extremism 7% 11% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2% 6% Climate change 6% 7% 7% 6% 10% 11% 11% 9% Do Issue Priorities Differ by Engagement Online/Social Media? % Identify Issue in Top 3 Selected Issues South Korea Total Total Total Unemployment and jobs 31% 35% 34% 26% 12% 8% 17% 20% 55% 53% 60% 51% Poverty and social inequality 20% 20% 27% 15% 30% 28% 35% 30% 44% 39% 50% 43% Corruption (financial or political) 15% 16% 16% 13% 41% 44% 41% 31% 36% 32% 40% 37% Crime and violence 35% 29% 35% 42% 51% 50% 53% 48% 38% 33% 40% 45% Healthcare 34% 32% 34% 36% 63% 62% 64% 62% 6% 7% 6% 6% Education 21% 19% 22% 22% 42% 43% 44% 35% 19% 20% 16% 20% Taxes 23% 23% 25% 21% 22% 23% 18% 23% 14% 13% 11% 19% Moral decline 21% 24% 16% 20% 6% 7% 2% 5% 23% 23% 22% 26% Threats against the environment 9% 9% 5% 11% 12% 11% 10% 16% 8% 9% 9% 5% Maintaining social programs 8% 11% 6% 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 22% 23% 24% 18% Immigration control 34% 35% 31% 35% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Terrorism 3% 2% 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 5% Rise of extremism 8% 9% 9% 8% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 2% 2% Climate change 12% 13% 12% 11% 3% 2% 4% 7% 4% 6% 3% 3% 11

12 Do Issue Priorities Differ by Engagement Online/Social Media? % Identify Issue in Top 3 Selected Issues U.K. Total Total Total Unemployment and jobs 49% 46% 40% 52% 71% 69% 68% 73% 82% 79% 86% 84% Poverty and social inequality 28% 36% 24% 24% 44% 46% 44% 42% 42% 42% 43% 40% Corruption (financial or political) 19% 18% 23% 18% 12% 10% 14% 12% 46% 47% 52% 40% Crime and violence 24% 20% 25% 26% 26% 24% 27% 26% 15% 15% 14% 14% Healthcare 22% 22% 22% 21% 14% 9% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 15% Education 9% 10% 10% 7% 14% 17% 13% 13% 8% 10% 4% 5% Taxes 17% 14% 19% 20% 35% 32% 32% 39% 45% 46% 39% 48% Moral decline 18% 17% 18% 20% 16% 18% 20% 13% 11% 10% 13% 14% Threats against the environment 6% 8% 5% 5% 8% 10% 9% 6% 4% 5% 5% 3% Maintaining social programs 17% 20% 20% 13% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 6% 7% Immigration control 43% 38% 40% 51% 16% 19% 15% 16% 5% 4% 6% 6% Terrorism 7% 9% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 8% 1% 1% 1% 1% Rise of extremism 9% 9% 7% 10% 15% 13% 17% 16% 2% 2% 2% 1% Climate change 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% So What is the Bottom-Line? A good deal more probing and prodding is needed to truly understand the relationships and nuances involved in public use of online and social media to examine public policy, social and political issues. Nevertheless, the information provided in this preliminary dive suggests that this is an area that decision-makers and influencers clearly need to understand and monitor. Some key observations include: A significant proportion of the population of each country is online, and is either ly or ly participating in public policy, social and political issues. This is clearly a new world of opinion and potentially behavior formation that needs to be understood and monitored by decision-makers and influencers. While there are understandable demographic skews, the online and social media world is far from being the exclusive domain of any one demographic group with respect to public policy, social and political issues. By their very nature, ly Engaged users represent potential advocates or detractors for a particular interest, in need of either mobilization or neutralization. However, the core of ly Engaged users is also of potential importance because by being online, they have made the first step to evolving into ly Engaged users. The Internet does not follow traditional geographic boundaries, and this, combined with increasing levels of immigration and emigration, means that decisionmakers and influencers charged with understanding the online and social media world need to be cognizant of what is happening beyond their borders. Information sourcing, idea and comment sharing, the fertilization of ideas and movements in the public policy, social and political issue world is not necessarily geographically confined. 12

13 Contact For more information about the use of online and social media in public policy, social and political issues, please contact: Mike Colledge President Canadian Public Affairs Ipsos Reid Chris Martyn Chief Research Officer, Public Affairs North America Ipsos Reid Written by Mike Colledge and Chris Martyn with contributions from Keren Gottfried and Nik Samoylov. About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs conducts strategic research in partnership with clients from government, public, corporate, and not-for-profit sectors. We understand and manage issues, advance reputations, determine and pinpoint shifts in attitude and opinion, enhance communications, and evaluate policy. We see respondents as citizens, stakeholders, employees, and voters not just as consumers. We can effectively and quickly reach elite, stakeholder, and other highly targeted respondents, with the same ease as the general public. Ipsos ensures our clients get the answers they need from the audience that is critical to their business. Strategic advice is the key deliverable. We provide clients with advice that goes beyond reporting on data, based on a concrete understanding of the issues and their context. To learn more, visit: Copyright 2013 Ipsos Public Affairs. All rights reserved