Worldwide Software Forecast Summary

Transcription

1 MARKET ANALYSIS Worldwide Software Forecast Summary Patrick Melgarejo IDC OPINION Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA USA P F The software marketplace continued growing even stronger in 2011 compared with 2010, since the financial downturn in 2008/2009. Worldwide packaged software revenue grew by 9.8% in Although 2012 is expected to show a market deceleration mainly impacted by Western Europe forecast performance, IDC is optimistic for the future as emerging regions (Asia/Pacific excluding Japan, CEMA, and Latin America) are expected to perform double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011 to IDC believes that: 2011 was another uphill year not an indicator of future steady-state growth is projected to grow at a slower rate than The recovery will continue at mid-single-digit growth levels throughout the forecast period ( ). The software marketplace continues to undergo significant change, with opportunities (and challenges) in the areas of digital commerce, cloud utilization, platform as a service, Big Data, and consumerization, to name a few. Filing Information: June 2012, IDC #235326, Volume: 1, Tab: Markets Software Overview: Market Analysis

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS In This Study 1 Methodology... 1 Primary Markets Covered... 1 Vendor and Market Segmentation... 1 Geographic Regions... 1 Operating Environments... 2 Software Market Taxonomy... 2 Executive Summary... 2 The Packaged Software Market in Worldwide Software Market Drivers, Situation Overview 8 Worldwide Software Market Performance in Worldwide Performance in 2011 by Primary Market... 8 Application Development and Deployment... 8 Applications... 9 System Infrastructure Software... 9 Performance of Leading Vendors in Top 50 Vendors' s of the Worldwide Software Market by Operating Environment Future Outlook 131 Forecast and Assumptions Forecast for the Worldwide Software Market Market Context Essential Guidance 143 Learn More 144 Related Research Forecast and Competitive Analysis Documents IDC Predictions Documents Other Related Research Appendix A: Worldwide Software Market Sizing and Forecast Methodology Historical Market Values and Exchange Rates Appendix B: Worldwide Software Market Forecast Summary Glossary What Is Packaged Software? General Functional Market Definitions Applications Market Definitions Consumer Applications Collaborative Applications Content Applications Enterprise Resource Management Applications Supply Chain Management Applications Operations and Manufacturing Applications Engineering Applications Customer Relationship Management Applications P # IDC

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Continued Application Development and Deployment Market Definitions Structured Data Management Software Application Development Software Quality and Life-Cycle Tools Application Server Middleware Integration and Process Automation Middleware Other Development and Deployment Data Access, Analysis, and Delivery Software System Infrastructure Software Market Definitions System and Network Management Software Security Software Storage Software System Software Geographic Area Definitions Operating Environment Definitions P 2012 IDC #235326

4 LIST OF TABLES 1 Worldwide Packaged Software by Region and Primary Market, Worldwide Packaged Software by Top 100 Vendors, Worldwide Packaged Software by Vendor, Worldwide Packaged Software by Vendor and Region, Worldwide Application Development and Deployment Software by Top 50 Vendors, Worldwide Application Development and Deployment Software by Vendor, Worldwide Application Development and Deployment Software by Vendor and Region, Worldwide Application Software by Top 50 Vendors, Worldwide Application Software by Vendor, Worldwide Application Software by Vendor and Region, Worldwide System Infrastructure Software by Top 50 Vendors, Worldwide System Infrastructure Software by Vendor, Worldwide System Infrastructure Software by Vendor and Region, Worldwide Packaged Software by Top 50 Vendors and Operating Environment, Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Software Market, Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Software Market, Worldwide Packaged Software by Primary Market and Region, Worldwide Application Development and Deployment Software by Operating Environment, Worldwide Application Software by Operating Environment, Worldwide System Infrastructure Software by Operating Environment, Worldwide Packaged Software by Region, : Comparison of June 2011 and June 2012 Forecasts Exchange Rates, P # IDC

5 LIST OF FIGURES 1 Worldwide Packaged Software by Primary Market and Region, Worldwide Packaged Software by Primary Market, Worldwide Packaged Software by Region, Worldwide Packaged Software by Region, : Comparison of June 2011 and June 2012 Forecasts P 2012 IDC #235326

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7 IN THIS STUDY This IDC study provides a comprehensive summary of the worldwide packaged software market for 2011 and a five-year revenue forecast by geographic region and operating environment through Vendor revenue and market share for more than 1,000 vendors are provided for Methodology This study, published annually, encompasses the entire packaged software market, with the applicable market segment elements outlined in the sections that follow. Appendix A describes the methodology used for the development of content, and Appendix B provides a glossary that offers detailed market definitions and explains how IDC defines packaged software revenue. In addition, please note the following: The information contained in this study was derived from the IDC Software Market Forecaster (SMF) database as of May 15, All numbers in this document may not be exact due to rounding. For more information on IDC's software definitions and methodology, see IDC's Software Taxonomy, 2011 (IDC #228020, July 2011). Primary Markets Covered The study presents revenue and shares for the following primary markets as well as worldwide totals: Application development and deployment (AD&D) Applications System infrastructure software (SIS) Vendor and Market Segmentation Geographic Regions With regard to software product demand, three distinct geographical regions are considered in each vendor's revenue: Americas Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) Asia/Pacific (including Japan) (APJ) Each segment is defined in the software market glossary in Appendix B IDC #

8 Operating Environments Market revenue and forecasts are also segmented by operating environment. Operating environments are defined collections of discrete hardware platforms and/or operating systems. The operating environments for this study are as follows: Mainframe Unix Linux and other open source Windows 32 and 64 Other (includes i5 and OS/400, other host/server, embedded, other single user, and hardware appliances) Each operating environment is defined in Appendix B. Software Market Taxonomy This study's software market glossary (see Appendix B), which is extracted from IDC's Software Taxonomy, 2011 (IDC #228020, July 2011), presents a functional view of the worldwide software market. IDC defines functional markets in terms of the features, functions, and attributes of the software package, not the problem being solved or the industry into which the software is deployed. In IDC's software market taxonomy, the worldwide software market is divided into 78 functional markets. The market information contained in this study is part of IDC's global software market coverage. The Related Research section of this study references companion IDC studies that go into greater detail and depth in analyzing individual software markets. Executive Summary The Packaged Software Market in 2011 Worldwide revenue increased from $295.7 billion in 2010 to $324.8 billion in 2011, an annual increase of 9.8%. Figure 1 illustrates 2011 software revenue by primary market and geographic region. 2 # IDC

9 FIGURE 1 Worldwide Packaged Software by Primary Market and Region, 2011 Source: IDC, 2012 Table 1 shows the 2011 revenue totals of the worldwide packaged software market by geographic region and primary market. The Americas (North America and Latin America) continued to account for over one-half (50.9%) of worldwide packaged software consumption. EMEA accounted for nearly one-third (32.7%) of worldwide revenue in Asia/Pacific (including Japan) accounted for the remaining 16.5% share of worldwide software revenue in IDC #

10 TABLE 1 Worldwide Packaged Software by Region and Primary Market, 2011 of Primary Market Americas Application development and deployment 38, Applications 81, System infrastructure software 45, Subtotal 165, EMEA Application development and deployment 26, Applications 51, System infrastructure software 28, Subtotal 106, APJ Application development and deployment 12, Applications 23, System infrastructure software 17, Subtotal 53, Worldwide Application development and deployment 77, Applications 156, System infrastructure software 90, Total 324, Source: IDC, 2012 The applications primary market continued to account for the largest portion of worldwide packaged software revenue, with 48.2% share in 2011 and up fractionally from 47.9% in SIS captured the second-largest share of worldwide revenue, at 28.0%, with AD&D contributing the remaining 23.9%. Worldwide Software Market Drivers, After the downturn in 2009, the software market experienced a strong rebound in , far from being the beginning of a moderate steady growth period, was an uphill year, reaching almost a double-digit growth rate. This year, in exchange, is forecast to be the beginning of the expected conservative but positive growing period that will be marked by a number of transformation trends. IDC published a number of prediction studies in late 2011 and early 2012 with analysts' views on the software market drivers in 2012 and beyond. Some key predictions excerpted from these documents are: Demand for digital commerce will outpace other enterprise software markets. On the B2C side, traditional retailers search for equilibrium between brick-and-mortar, online, mobile, and social commerce channels. In addition, we are seeing digital commerce growing beyond retail to other customer-facing industries, such as financial services. There is increasing demand for solutions 4 # IDC

11 for engaging with the customer in social, mobile, and online, new technologies that bring interactive marketing vendors to the fore. On the B2B side, supplier relationship management puts a premium on the formation and maintenance of business networks (e.g., a driver of the SAP acquisition of Ariba). Cloud monetization will become more sophisticated (beyond per user per month) as cloud applications mature. Current models leave value on the table or force customers to work in ways that don't really work. By 2012, about 83% of all net-new software firms coming to market will be provided as a service versus a packaged product (CD or download). Despite the differences between subscription-based SaaS and on-premise software paid for via perpetual license, many of the fundamentals of pricing and licensing remain the same; a metric is employed as a surrogate for value, a measure of use intensity or breadth of use is established, and the client is granted the rights to use the software for a duration of time. While we talk about on-premise software being licensed, and SaaS being provisioned, a license enables access in both cases. SaaS helps address many of the challenges that ISVs encounter with on-premise software, such as copy protection and user authentication. However, while user authentication and authorization can provision and manage access to SaaS when the service is priced per user, this doesn't address models that price based on other metrics, such as transactions or events. In 2012, businesses will move a portion of enterprise application seats to public cloud infrastructure, accelerating the wholesale model and growing the percentage of applications seats deployed on public cloud IaaS to about 2.4%. The chief customers for public cloud IaaS (hosting/provisioning infrastructure, storage, data services) have thus far been mostly commercial B2C companies, and starting in 2012, because of licensing changes on the part of ISVs and the desire for deployment flexibility on the part of user organizations, more enterprise apps (SAP, Oracle, Microsoft) will be running on public clouds saw consumer-centric firms (Zynga, Netflix, Dropbox, etc.) begin to scale on public cloud infrastructure, where many large SaaS firms (think of salesforce.com on Equanix) and ISVs building SaaS services (think of Network Associates) have been shifting for the past three to four years. This new flexibility makes it far easier for less specialized infrastructure providers to simply "certify the stack" on which applications will run with the software publisher rather than become specialists in the applications themselves, as the hosted application management (AM) providers have had to will be the year of "putting the pieces together" for effective customer engagement. The combination of mobile, social, Big Data/analytics, and cloud provides the essential components that enable a comprehensive customer experience. However, the race to embrace the term customer experience will leave many vendors woefully incapable of providing more than a limited viewpoint on the topic based on their perspective and core competencies. Enduser organizations are in the process of stepping back and viewing their delivery of product and service from this customer-centric viewpoint. IT vendors are significantly downstream from the business process but are the lynchpin in implementations that can deliver on consistency and economies of scale IDC #

12 Desktop and mobile application development and ecosystems will begin to converge in 2012; front-end platforms will continue to consolidate; web ecosystems will dominate. The success of smartphones introduced a new paradigm for developing and deploying applications that will have broad and farreaching implications for all application development tools and software architectures. The new paradigm, aside from its characteristic touchscreen user interface, relies on sets of granular applications, which individually carry fewer function points but utilize a variety of device sensors and a rich runtime with a notification architecture that connects to back-end cloud services. When compared with existing desktop or browser applications, this paradigm represents a rethinking of how applications are architected. Yet the model has proven its success as the number of devices that are able to run such apps is about to exceed the number of personal computers (Windows or Macintosh based) that are annually sold. In fact, the leading mobile app stores (Apple ios and Google Android) have now reached a combined portfolio of applications that exceed 1 million. This new paradigm will be lapping on the shores of desktop personal computer ISVs, first for consumer usage and eventually for enterprise usage beginning with The PC will begin a phase of rapid evolution leading to the mainstreaming of mobile application architectures and mobile development tools or, stated another way, to the convergence of mobile and desktop development. By the end of 2012, social will pervade middleware, application development tools, and life-cycle management. We've seen extraordinary adoption of social networks on the consumer Web Facebook has 800 million users, there are 200 million tweets per day, and LinkedIn has a market cap of nearly $7 billion. The social tidal wave is hitting the enterprise, and organizations have begun to implement enterprise social platforms initially in a somewhat protectionist mode but increasingly as a strategic initiative to better leverage their talent and intellectual capital, increase user productivity, and accelerate time to value. Everyone has a story about a customer problem or product failure that was resolved by an ad hoc team or an innovation that sprang into being, thanks to crowdsourcing. We're seeing huge deployments of enterprise social platforms large organizations adopting social platforms companywide for 100,000 employees. Security, economics, and openness will define the agenda for platform as a service. Most vendors will tell that their private platform-as-a-service revenue is at least an order of magnitude bigger than public cloud revenue. Of course some of this is because 2011 was the year of announcements about public cloud services from most leading platform vendors. Since most of these announcements will result in the general availability of public platforms for AD&D in 2012, this year is shaping up as a battleground for PaaS mindshare and market share. Big Data will materially impact a wide range of information technology. Leading database and data integration vendors will make inroads with Big Data products in Some of these products will augment or partially replace Hadoop or elements of Hadoop. Others will address other Big Data issues such as large-scale, in-memory computing and heterogeneous data support. In 6 # IDC

13 addition, the Big Data movement will propel support of Big Data in motion (message or stream based) as well as the current convention of data at rest. Ready access to valuable data from large stores will also enrich mobile offerings. In addition, Big Data technologies that include support for large unstructured and semistructured data will help drive a blurring in the distinction between structured data and content. This implies the need for text analytics and a way to dovetail with content management (CM). Customers will face confusing choices as virtualization, cloud system software, and infrastructure automation software converge. The line between virtualization, cloud system software, and infrastructure automation software will blur in 2012 as the majority of systems management monitoring, automation, and control software solutions now accommodate both virtual and physical environments. Virtualization has become widely accepted as an enterprise datacenter building block that provides the core platform for broader cloud architectures that feature end-user self-service automated provisioning, consumption-based metering, dynamic capacity optimization, and policy-based resource optimization. Private clouds will grow like gangbusters, one use case at a time. While vendors and customers debate the best architecture for building and operating cloud environments, demand for use case specific private clouds will grow like gangbusters as IT looks to implement self-service and resource pooling capabilities in order to control VM sprawl and improve business service levels. Given our previous prediction that customers will have a hard time deciding on the best cloud architecture to embrace on a broad scale, IDC expects that most private cloud implementations in 2012 will be built using modular greenfield strategies rather than executed as part of broad datacenter transformation initiatives. In 2012, self-serve infrastructure provisioning will become increasingly de rigueur for application development, test and QA teams, and internal IT staff but less so for the broader enterprise end-user community. Operational complexity will drive demand for predictive analytics and application performance management. Operational complexity in virtualized, scale-out, and cloud environments and composite Web-based application environments will drive demand for automated analytic performance management and optimization tools that can quickly discover, filter, correlate, remediate, and ideally prevent performance and availability slowdowns, outages, and other service-interrupting incidents. The need to rapidly sort through tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of alerts and events to quickly discover problems and pinpoint root causes far exceeds the capabilities of manual methods. To meet this growing need, IDC expects powerful performance management tools, based on sophisticated statistical analysis and modeling techniques, to emerge from niche status and become a recognized mainstream technology during the coming year. These analytics will be particularly important in driving increased demand for application performance management (APM) and end-user experience monitoring tools that can provide a real-time end-to-end view of the health and business impact of the total environment IDC #

14 Consumerization of IT will create new management challenges and solutions. IDC's 2011 Consumerization of IT Survey of 490 CIOs, IT executives, and managers found that 41% of IT organizations already support end users' ipads and iphones. IDC expects that 2012 will see the deepening of penetration of ipads, iphones, and other consumer devices in many organizations. System management vendors already provide top-level management capabilities, such as the ability to wipe corporate data from a phone if the phone is stolen, covering ipads, iphones, and BlackBerry devices. But IDC expects that 2012 will be the year of business app integration as the rise of apps stores confronts IT with challenges about which to support and which to exclude. This situation will force systems management software vendors to provide management solutions that are aware of how the app store is to be integrated into existing service and problem management solutions. It will also require IT to work with customers and service provider partners as necessary to think about how those stores can best be integrated. The security implications as well as the change and configuration management challenges for managing these mobile devices will have to be addressed. See the Learn More section of this study for an extensive listing of IDC's predictions documents. SITUATION OVERVIEW Worldwide Software Market Performance in 2011 Table 2 shows a ranking of the top 100 worldwide software vendors by revenue and market share. Table 3 lists the worldwide software vendors in alphabetical order. A view of the key software vendors and their key market shares in the worldwide packaged software market by region is provided in Table 4. Worldwide Performance in 2011 by Primary Market Application Development and Deployment The AD&D markets include software products used for the development and deployment of applications. There are two major subdivisions of the AD&D primary market: Software products that full-time professional developers use to develop and deploy applications Data access, analysis, and delivery products that are end user oriented tools for ad hoc data access, analysis, and reporting 8 # IDC

15 In total, the worldwide AD&D software functional markets generated vendor revenue of $77.5 billion in 2011 a strong 11.5% increase from 2010 as shown in Table 5, which presents the top 50 AD&D vendors ranked in order of 2011 worldwide revenue. The top 50 AD&D vendors accounted for an 84.2% share of the total AD&D market in Table 6 provides a list of the leading vendors in the worldwide AD&D market in alphabetical order. The Americas (predominantly the United States) accounts for the largest share of AD&D revenue. As shown in Table 7, 2011 revenue for the Americas region was $38.9 billion, or a 50.3% share of the overall worldwide AD&D market total. EMEA was the second-largest market, with a 34.1% share in 2011, followed by Asia/Pacific, at 15.6%. Applications This market consists of both business and consumer applications. Business applications, in turn, consist of enterprise applications and nonenterprise business applications, such as collaborative, content management, authoring and publishing, and search and discovery applications. In 2011, the packaged applications market grew by 10.4% to $156.5 billion (see Table 8). Table 9 provides a list of the leading vendors in the worldwide applications market in alphabetical order. As illustrated in Table 10, the Americas consumes the largest share of applications software, accounting for a 51.8% share in System Infrastructure Software The total SIS market accounted for $90.8 billion in revenue for 2011, up 7.4% from $84.6 billion in 2010, as shown in Table 11. Table 12 provides a list of the leading vendors in the worldwide SIS market in alphabetical order. As in the other primary markets, the Americas accounted for the largest share of SIS consumption in 2011, at 49.7% of the worldwide total (see Table 13) IDC #

16 TABLE 2 Worldwide Packaged Software by Top 100 Vendors, Growth Rank Microsoft 48, , , IBM 24, , , Oracle 20, , , SAP 12, , , Symantec 5, , , HP 5, , , EMC 3, , , CA Technologies 4, , , Adobe 3, , , VMware 1, , , Fujitsu 2, , , SAS 2, , , Intuit 2, , , Siemens 2, , , Infor 2, , , Dassault Systèmes 1, , , Autodesk 1, , , Salesforce.com 1, , , Intel Corp. 1, , , BMC 1, , , Hitachi 1, , , Sage 1, , , Cisco 1, , , Citrix 1, , , NEC 1, , , Activision Blizzard 1, , , SunGard 1, , , Synopsys 1, , , McKesson 1, , , Apple 1, , , NetApp 1, , , Trend Micro 1, , , ESRI , , Attachmate 1, , , Cadence Design Systems , Teradata OpenText DATEV PTC Software AG Red Hat Mentor Graphics Avaya Inc Nuance Communications Inc Quest Software # IDC

17 TABLE 2 Worldwide Packaged Software by Top 100 Vendors, Growth Rank Compuware Electronic Arts TIBCO Cerner Ansys Inc Informatica Siemens Enterprise Communications TOTVS Intergraph Kaspersky Lab Google Inc Fidelity National SWIFT HDS Kronos Inc Fiserv ADP FICO (formerly Fair Isaac) Bentley Systems Inc Micros Systems Verint Systems Misys Progress Software Corp Medical Information Technology (Meditech) Acision Constellation Software Inc Genesys Telecommunications Laboratories NICE Systems Pitney Bowes Software Allscripts UNIT Micro Focus Blackboard GXS MicroStrategy JDA Software Epicor Software Corp Invensys Aspect Software Northgate Information Solutions Ariba Inc Visma Amdocs Cegedim IDC #

18 TABLE 2 Worldwide Packaged Software by Top 100 Vendors, Growth Rank Fidessa Sophos Unisys Concur Technologies CommVault CompuGroup Medical InterSystems Corp ACI Worldwide Research In Motion UFIDA IntraLinks Subtotal 198, , , Other 75, , , Total 273, , , Source: IDC, 2012 TABLE 3 Worldwide Packaged Software by Vendor, Growth Rank /n software C Spatial D Systems i Infotech M CS D SAS AAM Technologies Abacus Research ABB Ltd ABBYY 31.0 NA ABC Systems Abiquo Able Commerce Accela Accellion Accelops Access Accounting Accountpro Accruent AccuRev ACI Worldwide # IDC

19 TABLE 3 Worldwide Packaged Software by Vendor, Growth Rank Acision Acronis Actiance (formerly FaceTime) Actipro Software Active Endpoints Inc ActiveState Software Inc Activision Blizzard 1, , , Actuate Corp Adaptive Adaptive Computing Aderant Aditro Admerex Adobe 3, , , ADP Advanced Computer Software Advanced Data Exchange Advanced Systems Concepts Advent Software Advizor Solutions AFAS ERP Software Agilense ,138 Ahnlab Inc AKuP ,020 Alcatel-Lucent Aldata Solution Alfabet Allegro Development Corp Alloy Software ,090 Allscripts Almog Software Industries ,055 Alpha Software ,060 Alps System Integration Altair Engineering Inc Alterian Altibase Altova Amano Cincinnati Amazon.com Inc Amdocs American Software ANGOSS Software International Ltd Ansys Inc AOL/Mapquest Appcelerator AppDynamics IDC #

20 TABLE 3 Worldwide Packaged Software by Vendor, Growth Rank Appfluent Technology Inc APPGEN Business Software Appian Appirio Appistry Apple 1, , , Application Security Inc Applied Computer Services (Hasib) Applied Materials Applied Systems Inc Applied Voice & Speech Technologies Aranda Software Arcplan Arena Argo Data Resource Corp Argos Systems ,087 ARI Network Ariba Inc ASA International Ascentis ASCON ASG Asiainfo Asianet TP Aspect Software Aspel Aspen Technology Aspera Aspose Asseco Group Astea International Asure AT Kearney Procurement Solutions Atari Atego Atempo ATENA UsÅ ugi Informatyczne i Finansowe Ateras Atlassian ATOSS Software Attachmate 1, , , Attunity Auraportal Autodesk 1, , , Autotask # IDC