Small/Mid Cap Pilot. Value reborn, but can't stand alone. September 3, Estimate risk and liquidity drought major obstacles

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1 September 3, 2012 Small/Mid Cap Pilot Value reborn, but can't stand alone Estimate risk and liquidity drought major obstacles It s not as simple as just buying value outright Value, yield, quality and GARP intertwine to form our new Focus List

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3 Contents Investment case 4 Focus List screening 6 What s the top-line growth implied by valuation? 9 Focus List companies 11 Focus List review 20 Performance review 21 What s working in Europe: Value is back 23 Estimates 29 Valuation 38 Dividend seasonality 42 Liquidity, flows and FX 45 Screening methodology 51 Screening tables 53 Sector breakdown valuation 87 Disclaimers 91 Carl Grapenfelt Elias Porse Jan Dworsky

4 Investment case Estimates are set to remain under pressure, as analysts appear to be building yet another revision trap for 2013e. With a lack of deep value support (unless comparing to bonds) and a threatening liquidity drought, we do not think it is as simple as just buying the cheapest stocks. Considering the mounting estimate risk, we complement our selection process with quality traits. Additionally, we increase weightings for high yielders, due to their H2 seasonality. Finally, with growth becoming harder to come by, we also use our newly-developed implied growth model in the formation of our new Focus List estimates set to remain under pressure Liquidity squeezes increase importance of flow analysis We remain bearish on 2013 consensus forecasts, as analysts look to have created a revision trap similar to 2011 and Supporting this claim is that only eight stocks will supposedly post negative y-o-y EPS and >90% of the Nordic small/mid cap universe will supposedly post better margins than in 2012; this compares with the best year that we have found, 2004, with just over 70% of companies beating the previous year s margin. Our valuation analysis continues to highlight the attraction of stocks over bonds. However, when we look at the asset class on an absolute basis, we only find slight value support: Nordic small/mid caps are trading at 14x trailing EPS and ~20% below the P/BV median (although this figure assumes debatable 2013e BV growth of 7%). Our EV/S model gives a broadly neutral reading apart for Norwegian, Swedish and European stocks. Stock market volumes continued to deteriorate over the summer. Our analysis suggests that it now takes over two years to turn over the average Nordic small/mid cap stock, compared to about one year during This liquidity drought has several implications: Possibly reduces interest in the asset class higher risk premium Increases the importance of fund flows and foreign ownership changes Position building possibly becomes more difficult, leading to wilder share swings Focus List underpinned by: Greenblatt inspired......dividend yield...garp...and value cases Investment strategy It is tempting to go all-in value at this point: this summer appears to have marked a turnaround for the factor after 30-months of underperformance. However, without analyst capitulation and/or extreme correlation, a durable style trigger is missing. Additionally, the P/E distribution of the various deciles in the universe is fairly uniform from a historical perspective (D1-D7), which suggests that outperformance is not just about picking the cheapest stocks. Given the mounting earnings pressure we foresee, we argue that it is prudent to combine our value approach with quality factors. Our Greenblattinspired screenings, which highlight stocks such as MTG, Konecranes, Kongsberg Gruppen, TGS, Betsson, Net Entertainment, HiQ, are becoming interesting. Nordic high-yielding stocks exhibit pronounced seasonality and often outperform in the second half of the year. After underperforming in every month between February and June, we see positive risk/reward in overweighting this group in our Focus List selection process. Examples of stocks screening favourably include Atea, Fabege, HiQ, Konecranes, Loomis.. With uncertainty over global growth mounting, we also believe that organic growth will be chased and use our newly-developed implied sales growth model to identify interesting GARP cases. Examples of stocks screening favourably here include Betsson, Net Entertainment, Axis, Atea, MTG, TGS, HiQ, Kongsberg, AF and Aker Solutions. Within the lower quality value rank, we find risk/reward especially appealing for NKT, where the market appears to place no value on the Cables division, and Songa Offshore, where the value of its assets far outweighs the enterprise value. Finally, New Wave s EV hitting its 2009 low (when a big rights issue was speculated) puzzles us. 4 Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

5 NKT, New Wave, Fabege, Atea, and Balder enter Autoliv, Oriflame, Kesko, Tomra, FLS and Veidekke exit Focus List changes NKT Holding and New Wave, mentioned above, are our deep value additions to our Focus List. Fabege enters due to its defensive dividend yield, having outperformed the market in nine years out of ten times during September-February, as well as offering growth potential in the Stockholm region (Solna). Atea also enters on the back of a >9% dividend yield and strong cash flows. Balder re-enters our Focus List on the back of solid value support and 50% exposure to the stable residential real estate market. We say goodbye to Autoliv, as the company exceeds our EUR 4bn threshold. Oriflame also exits on the back of its re-rating since entering the list in November Kesko and Veidekke both exit due to estimate pressure, as we believe this will hamper both stocks. Tomra, one of our longest holdings, exits after great performance, as we believe the valuation has finally reached neutral ground. FLSmidth also exits, as the outlook for mining equipment has deteriorated further. We have intentionally left one full weight and one half weight slot empty in our Focus List, awaiting a better risk/reward entry point following the expected estimate correction. Table 1: Handelsbanken s small/mid cap Focus List Share MC Div. Screening categories price EUR'm Yield Value Growth Quality Revisions Cashflow Total Investment case highlights Aker Solutions , The right exposure - Strong grow th expected ahead - Still lagging peers Axis , Trend intact, but y-o-y comparison in Q3e challenging - Axis maintaining market share despite stiff competition - Not immune to EUR w eakness Betsson A non-cyclical, net cash grow th story - One of the few betting companies w ith a track record - Single digit P/E for a grow th stock? Fabege , n.m 2 - Strong net letting to boost 2013e cash flow - Arenastaden brings superior development potential - Bright outlook for Stockholm office rents Konecranes , Leverage gains to spread from Service to Equipment in H2e - Outperformance has recently taken a break - Great combination of quality and EPS-hike potential Loomis Acquisitions and margin-boosting in focus - Pendum already contributing to group margins - Appealing absolute and relative valuations Modern Times Group , Both core operations are misunderstood - Valuation near 2004 and 2008 low s - Better ratings could trigger a revaluation NKT Holding p.p. margin expansion in Cables over next tw o years - Negligible valuation on NKT Cables - ~35% upside to target price Songa Offshore Strategic options being evaluated - Tight supply/demand balance - Impressive backlog TGS-Nopec , At the top of its game - Investments supported by healthy balance sheet - Superior business model delivering superior returns Half-Weight AF-Group Value support for a grow th story Atea Handsome yields Balder n.m 1 - Cash-flow resilient assets in good locations HiQ Sw edish market still in good balance Kongsberg Gruppen , Valued like Defence, offshore exposure ignored Net Entertainment The fastest grow ing online gaming company New Wave Structurally better cash flow generation /FactSet September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 5

6 Focus List screening We sort our Nordic small/mid cap universe here to highlight how a potential long and short list would look using our predefined investment styles. Most of the stocks in our Focus List feature in all of the style lists where value is included; in contrast, the quality list has very different characteristics. Long: two-factor model offers significant upside Sales to drop by 3% p.a. in 2013e-18e TGS-Nopec, Konecranes Kongsberg Gruppen Pricey downgrades our back-testing suggests that these should be avoided Table 2: Normalised value (60%) and EPS revisions (40%), most attractive Top Mcap (EURm) EBIT margin (adj.) Share Potential % Sales gr. (CAGR) Quintiles Adj. Avg Avg 2012e 2013e Implied EV/S Implied (05-11) 2012e 2013e (05-11) marg marg 13-18e 05-13e EV/S REV QUAL TGS-Nopec 2, Pandora 1, n.m Cision Outotec 1, Auriga Industries Eniro Proffice Kongsberg Gruppe 1, Fred. Olsen Energy 2, EAC Konecranes 1, Cargotec 1, Boliden 3, Veidekke FLSmidth & Co 2, Avg Bottom Cloetta n.m n.m n.m Outokumpu 1, n.m n.m n.m Frontline n.m n.m Talvivaara Mining C n.m n.m n.m -88 n.m Mekonomen SAS n.m n.m n.m Archer n.m n.m Norw egian Air Shu n.m n.m n.m William Demant Hold 3, Nordic Semiconduc G & L Beijer North Atlantic Drillin 1, n.m n.m -5 2 n.m BW Offshore n.m n.m n.m SSAB 1, Husqvarna 2, Avg , Factset This group looks attractive, having grown >10%, only priced for 2% Table 3: Margin stability and high ROCE Mcap (EURm) EBIT margin (adj.) Share Potential % Sales gr. (CAGR) Quintiles Adj. Avg Avg 2012e 2013e Implied EV/S Implied (05-11) 2012e 2013e (05-11) marg marg 13-18e 05-13e EV/S REV QUAL Simcorp William Demant Hold 3, Net Entertainment Axfood 1, Alma Media Axis 1, Oriflame 1, Sw eco TGS-Nopec 2, Addtech Modern Times Grou 2, HiQ Ekornes Indutrade Clas Ohlson Avg , Factset 6 Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

7 Three-factor combo longs 40% upside on historical and prospective margins, with sales expected to decline by 3% p.a. TGS, KOG, KCR, HIQ Three-factor combo shorts Table 4: Value (40%), revisions (20%) and quality (40%) top/bottom 15 EBIT margin (adj.) Share Potential % Sales gr. (CAGR) Quintiles Mcap Adj. Avg Avg 2012e 2013e Implied Top (EURm) EV/S Implied (05-11) 2012e 2013e (05-11) marg marg 13-18e 05-13e EV/S REV QUAL TGS-Nopec 2, Outotec 1, Kongsberg Gruppe 1, Pandora 1, n.m Konecranes 1, Ekornes AF Gruppen Proffice Veidekke Alma Media HiQ Oriflame 1, JM 1, Fred. Olsen Energy 2, Sw eco Avg Bottom Outokumpu 1, n.m n.m n.m Cloetta n.m n.m n.m Talvivaara Mining C n.m n.m n.m -88 n.m SAS n.m n.m n.m Frontline n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m BW Offshore n.m n.m n.m Frontline n.m n.m Archer n.m n.m Norw egian Air Shu n.m n.m n.m North Atlantic Drillin 1, n.m n.m -5 2 n.m Norske Skog n.m n.m n.m Metsä Board n.m SSAB 1, Atria n.m William Demant Hold 3, Avg , Factset Table 5: Value (30%), quality (20%) and dividend yield (50%) top 15 EBIT margin (adj.) Share Potential % Sales gr. (CAGR) Quintiles Focus on dividend yield with value and quality A more defensive touch Mcap Adj. Avg Avg 2012e 2013e Implied Top (EURm) EV/S Implied (05-11) 2012e 2013e (05-11) marg marg 13-18e 05-13e EV/S REV QUAL Ekornes HiQ NCC 1, Alma Media JM 1, AF Gruppen Veidekke Duni Fred. Olsen Energy 2, Konecranes 1, Securitas 2, Oriflame 1, Lagercrantz Proffice Betsson Avg , Factset September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 7

8 The deep value names: KOG, HIQ, KCR in Focus list High gearing + negative revisions or compounders such as Elekta, Chr. Hansen GN, Demant and Schibsted Table 6: Normalised value (HCM EV/S model), top/bottom 20 EBIT margin (adj.) Share Potential % Sales gr. (CAGR) Quintiles Mcap Adj. Avg Avg 2012e 2013e Implied Top (EURm) EV/S Implied (05-11) 2012e 2013e (05-11) marg marg 13-18e 05-13e EV/S REV QUAL Eniro Pandora 1, n.m JM 1, Kongsberg Gruppe 1, Boliden 3, HiQ Ekornes EAC TGS-Nopec 2, AF Gruppen NCC 1, Cision Morpol n.m Proffice Konecranes 1, Outotec 1, Veidekke Duni BoConcept Höganäs Avg Bottom BW Offshore n.m n.m n.m Norw egian Air Shu n.m n.m n.m Frontline n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m H+H International n.m n.m n.m Norske Skog n.m n.m n.m Outokumpu 1, n.m n.m n.m SAS n.m n.m n.m Torm n.m n.m n.m Talvivaara Mining C n.m n.m n.m -88 n.m Atria n.m Retail and Brands n.m n.m Cloetta n.m n.m n.m Stockmann 1, Chr. Hansen 3, n.m Metsä Board n.m Schibsted 3, Elekta 3, GN Store Nord 1, William Demant Hold 3, Archer n.m n.m Avg , Factset 8 Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

9 What s the top-line growth implied by valuation? One of the pitfalls of value screens is that they tend to punish growth stocks and favour cheap slow-growers. We have previously tried to adjust the EV/S model for expected growth in 2013 and then assume that all companies have the same growth prospects beyond this point. This screening looks at implied long-term sales growth vs. historical delivery and 2014e forecasts in order to better capture these GARP features. How to capture growth stocks in a value screening Looking at implied growth rates beyond 2013 (5-10 years out) Like most value-based models, our EV/S model has a propensity to punish growth stocks. To mitigate this effect, we adjust EV/S (2012e) for sales growth versus the market for one additional year (2013), thus making the assumption that beyond 2013 all companies have the same growth prospects. But this still leaves a model that punishes growth stocks and favours cheap slow-growers. Rather than adjusting the EV/S model for growth beyond 2013, we calculate the growth scenario implied by the current EV/S vs. EBIT margin scenario (a blend of forecasts and historical delivery). To do this, we first compare the current adj. EV/S with the implied EV/S (EV/S = 10.4 * EBIT margin). Depending on whether we apply a five-year (CAGR 2013e-18e) or ten-year window, we can thus compute the CAGR sales growth/decline needed for the current valuation to be deemed fair. Finally, as this measures growth in excess of market growth, we need to make an assumption for market growth, which we conservatively set at 4%. We thereby arrive at the following equations: Implied 5Y CAGR = [EV/S/(Implied EV/S (10.4*EBIT marg))^1/5-1] + 4% (mkt. growth) Implied 10Y CAGR = [EV/S / (Implied EV/S)^1/10-1] + 4%. In Table 7 we compare the CAGR sales growth between e with the implied growth defined above to search for GARP cases (growth at a reasonable price). Below, we identify a few of the positive deviations where historical growth surpasses implied growth. Positive deviations where historical growth surpasses implied growth MTG vs. Schibsted IT overweight: Atea, Axis and HiQ exiting Betsson and Net Entertainment rank the best, having >25% CAGR vs. implied growth of 3-7%, which is also considerably lower than our estimates for 2014e of 14-17%. Outotec is especially interesting, as the stock appears priced for a number of years of structural decline (2013e-18e) of ~4%, which compares to the company having posted a CAGR of 18% historically, but our estimates for 2014e (14% decline) offers caution. MTG discounts annual sales growth of 1% for 2013e-18e, despite delivering growth of 8% historically. In the same industry, Schibsted is priced to grow by 13% in 2013e-18e. Axis is priced to show an annual sales increase of 7% in 2013e-18e vs. its growth rate of >25% and our expectation of 22% growth for 2014e. Consultancy firms HiQ and AF Group have delivered >10% sales CAGR, despite which these stocks are priced for insignificant growth (AF) or structural decline (HIQ) Atea, where the margin assumed for the calculation includes a period of poor performance, scores in the top 5, having posted >20% sales CAGR. CDON is starting to look exiting, if we assume a sustainable EBIT-margin of ~4%, being priced for 5% sales growth vs. our 2014 forecast of 15% Oil service also screen well The model implies that TGS-Nopec would see an annual sales drop of 5% during 2013e-18e, despite growth of 19% historically and expected growth of 10% in 2014e. Kongsberg Gruppen looks interesting, implying a 6% decline vs. 15% growth ( ). Aker Solutions, being priced for 4% growth, also looks interesting vs. our 2014e forecast, especially if you consider the recent margin improvement and peer profitability, leading us to believe that the implied sales growth is over-estimated. September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 9

10 Betting, IT and oil score the best Outotec trust history or mining capex slowdown Konecranes and Hexpol screen positively Table 7: Implied sales growth vs e CAGR Top 50 Impl. Growth Sales gr. (%) Adj. EBIT-margin (%) Rev. Ratio (%) ROCE (%) Mcap (EURm) 5y 10y CAGR e Avg (05-11) 12e 13e Weighted Avg EPS Sales (05-11) 12e Betsson Net Entertainment Opera Softw are EAC TGS-Nopec 2, Unibet Group Atea Marine Harvest 2, Outotec 1, Kongsberg Gruppen 1, SalMar TradeDoubler Axis 1, AF Gruppen Grieg Seafood Hexpol 1, HiQ Cermaq Nokian Tyres 4, Fenix Outdoor Konecranes 1, Proffice Boliden 3, North Media Lundin Mining 2, AF-Group Golden Ocean Nordic Semiconductor Fred. Olsen Energy 2, FLSmidth & Co 2, HKScan Sw eco Nederman Autoliv 4, G & L Beijer NKT shows up here We choose MTG over Oriflame CDON if margins rise halfway vs. history JM 1, Oriola-KD Metso 4, Ekornes NKT Holding Veidekke Leroy Seafood Group Cavotec Clas Ohlson Lundbeck 2, Oriflame 1, Modern Times Group 2, Mekonomen Höganäs B&B Tools CDON Group n.m n.m 11 Aker Solutions 3, / FactSet 10 Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

11 AF-Group Sector has solid growth drivers Infrastructure segment offers a compelling story Likely involved in acquisition talks Industry-leading profitability Leading tech service provider AF has a strong position within industry and infrastructure in the Nordics, and is a global leader in energy-related services. The company has a stellar track record and is among the most profitable in its sector. Appealing exposure As infrastructure spending looks promising and the order book looks solid, growth opportunities look good ahead. H1 organic revenue growth was 8% and three of four divisions reported EBIT margins >10%. Recent order intake, suggests to us that profitability in the fourth unit, Energy, is set to improve in H2. Share price (SEK): 129 Target price (SEK): 150 Mkt cap (EURm): 524 Accum SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 5,538 5,820 5,998 EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK Index 140 Value support for a growth story AF s strong balance sheet (net cash of SEK 183m after paying a 4% yield) allows it to take part in the ongoing consolidation of the tech consultancy sector and could trigger higher estimates this year. An EV/S ~0.7 looks too low given normalised EBIT margin potential of ~10% and the company s 10y sales CAGR of 11%. Anders Tegeback, , S O N D J F M A M J J A AF-Group rel. DJ Stoxx Aker Solutions The right exposure Strong growth expected ahead Still lagging peers Deep water and Norway exposure The structural growth in deepwater developments and the renaissance in the North Sea should ensure strong growth for AKSO s Subsea, MMO and Drilling Technologies business areas, accounting for 70% of revenues and EBITDA. Substantial growth ahead Quest forecasts 80% growth in subsea tree awards in vs The home turf, Norway, is set to enjoy 27% growth in E&P spending and AKSO should be on track to reach its 9-15% growth target (H1 2012: 38% growth y-o-y). Significant upside to peers At a 2013e EV/EBITDA of 5.9x, AKSO is trading 18% below the historical average of 7.2x. AKSO has sold P&C, spun-out KVAER and turned around the Brazilian subsea operations, which we believe should justify even higher multiples. The SOTP based on peer multiples returns a value of NOK 138/share. Daniel Råvik, , Share price (NOK): 106 Target price (NOK): 130 Mkt cap (EURm): 3,895 Buy NOKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 45,508 51,411 56,501 EBITDA adj 4,484 5,754 6,621 margin (%) EBIT adj 3,318 4,359 5,179 margin (%) EPS adj (NOK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) NOK S O N D J F M A M J J A Aker Solutions rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 11

12 Atea Softer market, but gaining market share Needs to get back on track in Q3 9% dividend yield IT Infrastructure a bit softer, but still in good shape With the ongoing macroeconomic turmoil in Europe, investments in IT infrastructure could be postponed. While Atea s direct exposure to European economies is minimal, it would be affected in such an environment as it is the market leader in the Nordics and Baltics. However, we find it comforting that the company continues to gain market share. Numbers in Q were a bit light Atea reported disappointing numbers in Q2 and said that markets slowed in the spring more than originally expected. However, as the trends improved in June, we believe Atea needs to have stabilised these trends going into Q Share price (NOK): Target price (NOK): 60.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 739 Buy NOKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 21,455 22,407 23,415 EBITDA adj ,084 margin (%) EPS adj (NOK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) NOK Index 130 Handsome yields Through acquisition and organic growth, the company has built a strong Nordic platform that yields good cash flow. Hence, incorporating the recent share price weakness and good dividend yield, we find the Atea case appealing. Anita Huun, , S O N D J F M A M J J A Atea rel. DJ Stoxx Axis Trend intact, but y-o-y comparison in Q3e challenging Axis maintaining market share despite stiff competition Not immune to EUR weakness On track to post another good year Axis delivered good Q numbers and we expect q-o-q trends in Q3 2012e to show normal patterns, with improved operations in America while the EMEA is likely to slow somewhat. On a y-o-y basis, Q3 2012e is set to be challenging due to the heavy purchases from one leading distributor in Q Manouvring well in a competitive landscape Axis continues to hold one third of the global market share in the digital space of the CCTV surveillance camera market, with Samsung and Hikvision as strong competitors. Continued EUR weakness to impact estimates Given the company s exposure to the EUR, prolonged EUR weakness will impact earnings. Despite this, we believe the structural LT trends are good and recommend BUY. Share price (SEK): 159 Target price (SEK): 210 Mkt cap (EURm): 1,321 Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 4,486 5,640 6,878 EBIT adj ,094 margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK 96 S O N D J F M A M J J A Axis rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Fredrik Lithell, , 12 Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

13 Balder Cash flow set to grow also in uncertain times A savvy investor with steady deal flow Attractive valuation at 20% P/NAV discount Cash-flow resilient assets in good locations In our opinion, Balder s portfolio is one of the most cash-flow resilient in the sector given its high share of residential rental assets (~47%). Further, ~80% of assets are located in Sweden s largest cities, vacancies have remained stable at 6% since Q4 2009, and we view vacancy risks as low. New investments to act as triggers Balder has added ~15% to the gross portfolio value through acquisitions year-to-date and we expect more accretive deals to be announced in H2. Management s strong acquisition track record is a key attraction to the investment case. Financing a non-issue Balder has grown NAV annually by an impressive 32% in the past five years. The stock is trading at an above-average Q2 spot P/NAV discount of 20% vs. the Nordic peer average of 11%, which we find attractive. Also, the financing situation is well under control with an average debt duration of 6.7 years. Share price (SEK): Target price (SEK): 39.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 638 Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Rental income 1,710 1,779 1,841 EBITDA adj 1,051 1,095 1,135 margin (%) Income fr property mgmt EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) SEK 23 S O N D J F M A M J J A Balder rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Albin Sandberg, , Betsson A non-cyclical, net cash growth story One of the few betting companies with a track record Single digit P/E for a growth stock? Better than a good market Online gaming company Betsson (casino, poker and sports betting) has outgrown the online gaming market in every quarter since Its opportunistic, low-cost profile has ensured strong earnings growth. B2B potential Betsson has several B2B projects going live that should secure above market growth at limited risk, including Berlingske, Arsenal FC and the co-ops in China. As far as we know, the single-platform/multi-brand strategy is unique and clearly reduces the acquisition risk. Still offering best value in the sector With a dividend yield above 6% and a 2013e P/E at around 10x, we believe Betsson continues to offer the best value in the online gaming sector. Share price (SEK): 196 Target price (SEK): 260 Mkt cap (EURm): 993 Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 2,430 3,095 3,532 EBITDA adj 844 1,063 1,199 margin (%) EBIT adj ,071 margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK Index S O N D J F M A M J J A Betsson rel. DJ Stoxx Rasmus Engberg, , September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 13

14 Fabege Strong net letting to boost 2013e cash flow Arenastaden brings superior development potential Bright outlook for Stockholm office rents In a market sweet spot Fabege s strong net letting in H1 should boost cash flow through 2013e, the better-than-expected Swedish employment should support demand for commercial space and the low interest rate environment is here to stay for some time. Look at Stockholm office rents for growth Central Stockholm vacancies are below 5%, a level that normally triggers strong rental growth and demand for new developments. Fabege s exposure to Arenstaden brings a development potential superior to peers and in a blue-sky scenario we see ~6-8% upside potential to NAV from additional development gains. Tax cases well priced in at current trading Fabege trades at a Q2 spot P/NAV discount of 16% (vs. Nordic peer average of 11%) and while the tax cases are likely to continue in H2 (SEK ~16.5 per share at risk vs. provision of SEK 12 per share), funds are in place to cover payments and we see limited impact on future operations (incl. dividends) should the final rulings turn out negative. Albin Sandberg, , HiQ Continued good markets for HiQ Weak Q2 seasonality handled well Upside to valuation and dividend yield support Swedish market still in good balance Despite signals that caution is creeping in, we feel markets are still in good shape for management and IT consultant HiQ. However, if demand does fizzle, the company is wellprepared to weather a storm. Q2 was likely the FY 2012 low point and we expect EBIT to rise as early as Q3 this year. Less available billable hours In Q2 2012, HiQ s performance was hampered by negative operating leverage due to fewer available billable hours, but we are not worried. Rather, we find the 10% EBIT margin booked during the quarter commendable under such circumstances. Share price (SEK): Target price (SEK): 69.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 1,150 Share price (SEK): Target price (SEK): 42.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 209 Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Rental income 1,924 2,191 2,354 EBITDA adj 1,259 1,450 1,563 margin (%) Income fr property mgmt EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK 48 S O N D J F M A M J J A Fabege rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 1,452 1,667 1,881 EBITDA adj margin (%) EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK Index 140 No exposure to continental Europe HiQ has very low, if any, exposure to the turbulent macro environment in Europe. HiQ could experience secondary effects from the European situation, but we argue the impact would be far less than for companies exporting to exposed markets. We find valuation (EV/EBIT ~7x) and dividend yield (~7%) attractive. Fredrik Lithell, , S O N D J F M A M J J A HiQ rel. DJ Stoxx Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

15 Konecranes Leverage gains to spread from Service to Equipment in H2e Outperformance has recently taken a break Great combination of quality and EPS-hike potential Global market share has doubled in seven years As the global leader in industrial cranes, Konecranes derived as much as 48% of 2011 EBIT from Service on its installed base, and we see room to expand. Its 29% of 2011 sales in the Americas positions Konecranes for reindustrialisation in the US and also helps profits: a 1% lift in the USD/EUR boosts PTP by EUR 1.5m. High likelihood for estimate upgrades Consensus forecasts strangely suggest Konecranes booked a record-high share of FY EBIT in H1. This is remarkable given Q3 started with a record order book (up 15% y-o-y) and fixed-cost growth is set to slow considerably in Q3. H2 is also boosted by the stronger USD and lower steel prices. Top acquisition target in the crane industry The 2012e EV/S multiple of 0.53x is low vs. the 10-year 12m rolling average of 0.70x and the EBIT adj. margin average of 8.3%. We see no risk to our 2012e DPS of EUR 1.00 (1.00), implying a yield of 5%. Tom Skogman, , Kongsberg Gruppen Well diversified Full steam ahead in Maritime Valued like Defence, offshore exposure ignored Offshore and defence Kongsberg s EBITA is split 50/50 between Defence-related and Maritime activities. While lower government spending causes headwinds for defence budgets, these headwinds are muted by Kongsberg s geographical distribution of revenues, with 80% originating from Norway, America and Asia. Offshore boosts Maritime 80% of revenues in Maritime stem from offshore and subsea activities. The Q2 backlog increased by 43% y-o-y in Maritime due to strong offshore growth. Offshore growth not reflected in the valuation KOG was awarded the CROWS III contract, adding NOK 5.7bn to the backlog, up 33% vs. Q2, ensuring high activity in the future. The company is trading at 12-month forward EV/EBIT of 5.6x, a ~30% discount to the historical average and ~15% to defence peers. Offshore peers are trading at a premium of 65%. Daniel Råvik, , Share price (EUR): Target price (EUR): 24.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 1,149 Share price (NOK): 114 Target price (NOK): 130 Mkt cap (EURm): 1,875 Accum EURm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 2,230 2,251 2,310 EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (EUR) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) EUR 13 S O N D J F M A M J J A Konecranes rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Accum NOKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 15,763 17,564 18,876 EBITDA adj 2,193 2,427 2,610 margin (%) EBIT adj 1,771 1,995 2,163 margin (%) EPS adj (NOK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) NOK 91 S O N D J F M A M J J A KOG.OL rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 15

16 Loomis Acquisitions and margin-boosting in focus Pendum already contributing to group margins Appealing absolute and relative valuations Focus on margins and acquired growth Restructuring-driven margin expansion has been a hallmark of cash-handling service company Loomis since its listing in While margin-boosting restructuring is continuing, these efforts are now joined by a prudent acquisition strategy. Top cash service provider in the US On March 31, 2011, Loomis acquired US-based cashhandling company Pendum (no. 5 in the market). In Q4 2011, Pendum started to reveal its impact on profitability, sending US margins above 8% and making a double-digit group EBITA margin look increasingly likely. Low-cycilicality business attractively priced Our positive view on Loomis is largely based on continued margin expansion that is not dependant on organic growth edging higher, accompanied by value-enhancing acquisitions. This is all priced at a 2012e-13e EV/EBIT of x Anders Tegeback, , Modern Times Group Both core operations are misunderstood Valuation near 2004 and 2008 lows Better ratings could trigger a revaluation A leading broadcaster MTG is a leading broadcaster in the Nordics and CEE, operating free-to-air and pay-tv via cable, DTT, satellite and IP-TV. The company s long-term profitability growth has been among the highest in Europe. Both core operations are misunderstood MTG does not reveal its online subscriber base. Pay-TV looks stagnant, but we think this business could eventually rival the satellite operation. Free-TV began in Scandinavia after other regions, so it is still a growing media. Free-TV s earnings growth looks set for a revival in H2 on easy comps. Share price (SEK): Target price (SEK): 113 Mkt cap (EURm): 758 Share price (SEK): 303 Target price (SEK): 400 Mkt cap (EURm): 2,410 Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 11,532 11,595 11,827 EBIT adj 984 1,041 1,117 margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK 77 S O N D J F M A M J J A Loomis rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 13,632 14,324 15,277 EBITDA adj 1,940 2,180 2,388 margin (%) EBIT adj 2,380 2,722 3,027 margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK Index 200% upside from similar previous situations EV/EBITA is currently only marginally above that in 2004 and When earnings growth returned then, the share price jumped >200% in less than two years. History suggests changing market dynamics benefit the agile, as MTG proved during digitalisation and the emergence of multichannel markets. Rasmus Engberg, , S O N D J F M A M J J A MTGb.ST rel. DJ Stoxx Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

17 Net Entertainment The fastest growing online gaming company The largest exposure to regulated markets At its lowest valuation, just when things look best In the fastest growing niche of the industry Net Entertainment is a casino provider for the online gaming industry, thereby offering exposure to the fastest growing niche (~15% p.a.) in a quickly growing market (>10% p.a.). Italy set to ensure high growth Unlike its operator peers, Net Entertainment s third largest geography is the regulated Italian market, even though it only entered it in summer 2011 and its biggest product, slots, is not allowed yet. To avoid over-extension, the new CEO (Mr Eriksson) has said that the focus of coming years will be on Italy and the UK, which makes perfect sense to us. Trough valuation as outlook peaks Net Entertainment has not traded at a mid-teen P/E since This is an opportunity, as H1 demonstrated that growth is now high enough for margins to improve, despite more than 20% cost growth, a situation not seen since Rasmus Engberg, , New Wave Promo-wear markets weak across Europe Structurally better cash flow generation Increasing valuation support Soft H Promo-wear in the Nordics Promo-wear wholesaler New Wave has seen unexpectedly weak sales and earnings in the Nordics in H In the Q2 report the 2012 guidance was lowered. The Nordic weakness is surprising, considering the benign macro development. No imminent recovery but cash flow has improved Despite cut estimates for FY12e we regard the near-term estimate uncertainty considerable and skewed to the downside. However, we note that cash flow from operations is up substantially y-o-y on structural NWC improvements. Share price (SEK): Target price (SEK): 90.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 365 Share price (SEK): Target price (SEK): 26.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 162 Buy SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales EBITDA adj margin (%) EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK 49 S O N D J F M A M J J A NETb.ST rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Accum SEKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 4,279 4,322 4,495 EBITDA adj margin (%) EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (SEK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) SEK Index EV and EV/sales on all-time-lows New Wave s EV and EV/sales are close to the previous alltime-low distress levels seen during the crises. At that time New Wave had a considerably weaker balance sheet and weaker cash flow generation. Thus, in a longer perspective we view the current valuation very attractive. Peter Wallin, , S O N D J F M A M J J A New Wave rel. DJ Stoxx September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 17

18 NKT Holding 5 p.p. margin expansion in Cables over next two years Negligible valuation on NKT Cables ~35% upside to target price Bet on cables and professional cleaning equipment Following the divestment of the NKT Flexibles JV, NKT will be a play on Nilfisk-Advance, the global market leader in professional cleaning equipment, and NKT Cables, which generates more than 50% of revenues from the attractive medium/high-voltage cables, including sub-sea cables. Potential margin recovery in Cables We expect NKT Cables to deliver 5 p.p. EBITDA margin expansion over the next two years as execution, productivity and profitability are restored in the Cologne facility. The Nilfisk-Advance division will likely see solid margin expansion driven by efficiency programmes and operating leverage. Share price (DKK): 194 Target price (DKK): 255 Mkt cap (EURm): 616 Buy DKKm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales 15,547 16,458 17,422 EBITDA adj 1,038 1,326 1,636 margin (%) EBIT adj ,096 margin (%) EPS adj (DKK) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) DKK Index 140 Pay one get two We believe the improvements in NKT Cables will drive a material re-rating of the stock over the next few quarters, as the unit s implied valuation is currently negligible. A SOTP valuation based on 2012/13e multiples points towards a value of DKK S O N D J F M A M J J A NKT Holding rel. DJ Stoxx Klaus Madsen, , Songa Offshore Strategic options being evaluated Tight supply/demand balance Impressive backlog Focus on mid-water rigs Drilling rig owner and operator Songa has three mid-water rigs certified for the undersupplied Norwegian Continental Shelf, and has contracts with Statoil to build four more. Adding two international mid-water rigs and an ultra-deepwater rig, Songa is set to benefit from a tightening market. Good North Sea market Songa will have seven of its ten rigs on the NCS when its Statoil units arrive. With lack of capacity forcing oil companies to delay drilling, we see this already-tight market remaining favourable for some time, likely boosting Songa s USD 7bn backlog. Working to improve the balance sheet We believe Songa is weighing the sale of its two international mid-water rigs and/or the newly delivered UDW rig. Further, management is considering alternative ownership structures for the four rigs under construction. Any of these options would improve the balance sheet, and likely boost the share. Knut Erik Løvstad, , Share price (NOK): Target price (NOK): 25.0 Mkt cap (EURm): 307 Buy USDm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (USD) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/Sales (x) NOK 12 S O N D J F M A M J J A Songa Offshore rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

19 TGS-Nopec At the top of its game Investments supported by healthy balance sheet Superior business model delivering superior returns Flexible business model Multi-client seismic survey company TGS-Nopec has no fleet of its own, leasing vessels as needed. This gives the company a flexible business model, enabling its long record of generating high returns and stable margins. Excitement ahead We believe H and FY 2013 will be exciting, with potential revenue lifts from a number of licensing rounds, e.g. in the North Sea, the US GoM and a number of smaller regions. In addition, multi-client cash investment is expected to rise ~60%, with higher pre-funding driving revenues. Healthy balance sheet TGS-Nopec has a healthy balance sheet, with net cash in excess of USD 200m, allowing the company to invest countercyclically. Its data library is also well positioned relative to the upcoming license round activity, so we expect exciting times ahead for TGS. Knut Erik Løvstad, , Share price (NOK): 169 Target price (NOK): 210 Mkt cap (EURm): 2,379 Buy USDm 2012e 2013e 2014e Sales ,036 EBIT adj margin (%) EPS adj (USD) Ratios 2012e 2013e 2014e P/E adj (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/Sales (x) Tot Div yield (%) NOK 92 S O N D J F M A M J J A TGS-Nopec rel. DJ Stoxx 600 Index September 3, 2012 Small/Mid cap Pilot 19

20 Focus List review The changes made to our Focus List in the previous issue proved especially fruitful, with six out of eight stocks outperforming, helping to generate 2.6 p.p. of outperformance in the quarter. Overall, nine cases outperformed and eight underperformed. Our dogs were no match for our stars. Year-to-date, our Focus List stands 4 p.p. ahead of Nordic small/mid caps. New entrants proved successful Songa keeps underperforming Aker Solutions the star of the show Net Ent, Kongsberg made solid debuts Our Focus List extended its year-to-date gains to 4 p.p., rising 10% (EUR) to outperform Nordic small/mid caps by 2.6 p.p. New entrants Aker Solutions, Axis, Net Entertainment, Kongsberg Gruppen, MTG and Loomis did particularly well, all rising by more than 10%, while TGS and Tomra also continued to add to their outperformance so far this year. Songa Offshore, remained lacklustre and has cost the portfolio a total of 290bp so far in Previous stars Betsson, Autoliv and Konecranes also struggled to match the market. Overall, nine cases outperformed and nine underperformed, but our dogs were no match for our stars. Table 8: Focus List performance, June 1 Aug 31, 2012 (total return, %, EUR) Perf. (%) Changes Contrib. p.p. Aker Solutions Tomra Systems TGS-Nopec Oriflame Axis Modern Times Group FLSmidth & Co Kesko Konecranes Autoliv Betsson Songa Offshore /2 w eight Net Entertainment Kongsberg Gruppen Loomis AF-Group Veidekke HiQ Focus List 10.3 Nordic small/mid cap 7.6 Outperformance (p.p.) 2.6 Focus List YTD 17.9 Outperformance YTD (p.p.) 4.0 Source: FactSet/Handelsbanken Capital Markets 20 Small/Mid cap Pilot September 3, 2012

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