European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast

Transcription

1 European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast J/15/1226 May C Offshore - OrbisEnergy Centre, Lowestoft, NR32 1XH T: +44 (0) E: info@4coffshore.com

2 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 7 2. Market Development to Date Subsea Cables Cable Installation Cable Monitoring Cable Inspection Cable Intervention and Repairs Cable Faults Weather Related Installation Delays Market Share: Array Cable Supply Market Share: Export Cable Supply Market Share: Interconnector Cable Supply Market Share: Array Cable Installation Market Share: Export Cable Installation Market Share: Interconnector Cable Installation At a Glance: Subsea Cable Installation Companies and Their Assets Transmission Policy Frameworks Overview Country Overview: Belgium Country Overview: Denmark Country Overview: France Country Overview: Germany Country Overview: Netherlands Country Overview: United Kingdom Costs: Cable Supply Costs Costs: Cable Installation Costs Costs: Capital Expenditure Forecasting Methodology Forecasting Results: Cable demand and expenditure to Appendix: Project Pipelines by Country Appendix: Future Wind Farm Opportunities Appendix: Future Interconnector Opportunities Appendix: Offshore Wind Subsea IMR Contracts Appendix: Offshore Wind Subsea IMR Players Schematic Appendix: German North Sea Grid Connections Appendix: Baltic Sea Grid Connections 89

3 Table of Figures Figure 1. Summary of offshore wind subsea cable market development Figure 2. Left: Percentage of incidents by problem and median delay length. Right: Number of incidents by delay and type of cable. 7 Figure 3. Number of players and market leaders for subsea cable and installation since Figure 4. Current (April 2015) and future (2025) installed capacity for the six main European markets 9 Figure 5.Offshore Wind CAPEX spend by country summed for period Figure 6. Left: Demand for array, export, HVDC transmission and interconnector cabling (km). Right: Expenditure on subsea cable supply and installation (a portion of total CAPEX) 10 Figure 7. Water depth and distance to shore at installed or underway European projects 11 Figure 8. Percent of capacity being exported via transmission technology (MVAC, HVAC, HVDC) 11 Figure 9. Nysted's substation (HVAC transformer) and Helwin Alpha (HVDC converter station) 11 Figure 10. Offshore wind cabling to date plotted by offshore installation start year for projects to Q From top left to bottom right: Cumulative cable type for all countries; cumulative array cable by country; cumulative HVAC export cable by country and cumulative MVAC export cable. 12 Figure 11. Left: Preparing for installation: array cable being wound on a carousel and Right: subsea power cable cross section 12 Figure 12. Ready for installation: export cable being wound on a carousel utilizing a tensioner 13 Figure 13. Four 66kV cable designs receiving qualification funding from the Carbon Trust's OWA. * Dry designs include an impermeable metallic sheath (e.g. lead sheath). 13 Figure 14. Single bipole arrangement schematic 14 Figure 15. Loading HVDC onto a cable lay vessel at the factory 15 Figure 16. Reef Subsea s Q1000 Jet trencher, Subsea 3M Cable Plough and DeepOcean's UT-1 trencher (has both jetting and meachanical wheel cutting modes) 16 Figure 17. Typical Survey Programme for a Round 2 UK Wind Farm 18 Figure 18. Thanet Export cable replacement. Photo: Subsea Energy Solutions. 19 Figure 19. Indicative CAPEX reduction potential of transmission initiatives and cost reduction options cited by respondents. Source: DNVGL 20 Figure 20. Left: Percentage of incidents by problem and median delay length. Right: Number of incidents by delay and type of cable. 21 Figure 21. Actual versus expected array cable rates at Gwynt-y-Môr 24 Figure 22. Significant delays attributable to weather 25 Figure 23. Example cable installation elements and influencing metocean components. Adapted from MojoMaritime Figure 24. Reducing weather risk during cable installation by optimising elements of the process. Adapted from MojoMaritime, Figure 25. Market share: array cable manufacture since Figure 26. Market share: export cable manufacture since

4 Figure 27. Market share: interconnector cable manufacture for on and offshore cable length. Since Figure 28. Market share: array cable installation since Figure 29. Market share: Export cable installation since Figure 30. Market share: interconnector installation (subsea component) 33 Figure 31. European offshore wind and interconnector subsea cable installation companies, market share, clients and assets. *=vessel has installed interconnectors. Italics=vessel under construction 35 Figure 32. Estimated OFTO O&M expenditure per annum. *All costs inflated to 2014 values. 36 Figure 33. Results OFTO Tenders 1-3 and operations and maintenance body 37 Figure 34. Belgian Offshore Grid (BOG, configuration updated April 2015). Generating projects shown in green. 40 Figure 35. Belgium: Projects installed 41 Figure 36. Belgium: Investor types and owners for projects that are commissioned or in construction 41 Figure 37. Cumulative installations according to 4C's 2025 projection. For specific projects please see the Appendix. 42 Figure 38. Denmark: Projects installed 44 Figure 39. Denmark: Investor types and owners for projects that are commissioned or in construction 44 Figure 40. Cumulative installations according to 4C's 2025 projection. For specific projects please see the Appendix. 44 Figure 41. French offshore wind tender results. *Start years are analyst estimates, not necessarily the same as developer communications 45 Figure 42. Supply chain investments in France 46 Figure 43. Cumulative installations according to 4C's 2025 projection. For specific projects please see the Appendix. 46 Figure 44. The extension of the higher initial remuneration has opened further investment in German offshore wind. 48 Figure 45. Progress towards goals and grid allocation to date. Baltic Sea represented by dotting. 48 Figure 46 Germany: Investor types and owners for projects that are commissioned or in construction 48 Figure 47. Annual installations according to 4C's 2025 projection; cumulative installed capacity and the cumulative capacity of all projects in the developer pipeline. For specific projects see the Appendix. 49 Figure 48. Map of current and future Netherlands offshore wind projects 50 Figure 49. Netherlands progress to date and scale of future tenders 52 Figure 50. Cumulative installations according to 4C's 2025 projection. For specific projects please see the Appendix. 52 Figure 51. UK development to date; licensing rounds and progress to date. Note that more attrition of projects in development is likely. 54 Figure 52. Ownership of generating and under construction projects in the UK 54 Figure 53. Annual installations according to 4C's 2025 projection, cumulative installed capacity and the cumulative capacity of all projects in the developer pipeline. For specific projects see the Appendix. 54 Figure 54. Array cable manufacture costs versus array cable length; regression analysis and table of projects 55 Figure 55. HVAC cable manufacture costs versus array cable length; regression analysis and table of projects 56 Figure 56. HVDC cable manufacture costs and table of projects 57

5 Figure 57. Array cable supply costs versus array length; regression analysis and table of projects 57 Figure 58. Export cable supply costs versus length; regression analysis and table of projects 58 Figure 59. CAPEX modelling to Figure 60. Observed array cable lengths (km) plotted against the two predictive components (i)project capacity and (ii) number of turbines 60 Figure 61.(i) Observed substation capacity by construction start year and (ii)number of substations by project capacity 61 Figure 62.(i) Observed turbine capacity by construction start year, and (ii) Number of confirmed turbine orders by start year and turbine capacity 61 Figure 63. Cumulative annual offshore wind CAPEX to and breakdown by country 62 Figure 64. Annual array cable demand (km) by country, total array cable demand by country, supply expenditure by year and install expenditure by year. 63 Figure 65. Annual MVAC export cable demand (km) by country plus total MVAC cable demand by country. 64 Figure 66. Annual HVAC export cable demand (km) by country plus total HVAC cable demand by country. 65 Figure 67. Annual HVDC export cable demand (km) by country plus total HVDC cable demand by country. 66 Figure 68. European HVDC interconnector cable demand for the period plus annual and cumulative CAPEX for interconnector projects for the period 67 Figure 69. Expenditure on HVDC interconnector cable supply and installation for the period Figure 70. Rate of installation data set : MW/Year increasing with start of offshore installation 68 Figure 71. Belgium: Project installations to Figure 72. Denmark: Project installations to Figure 73. France: Project installations to Figure 74. Germany: Project installations to Figure 75. Netherlands: project installations to Figure 76. United Kingdom: Project installations to Figure 77. Future UK offshore wind farm projects, awarded cable supply and manufacture contracts and contracts not yet announced (-) 72 Figure 78. Future German offshore wind farm projects, awarded cable supply and manufacture contracts and contracts not yet announced (-) 73 Figure 79. HVDC Transmission cable supply and installation contracts for German North Sea Converter Stations 74 Figure 80. Future Belgian offshore wind farm projects, awarded cable supply and manufacture contracts and contracts not yet announced (-) 74 Figure 81. Future Danish offshore wind farm projects, awarded cable supply and manufacture contracts and contracts not yet announced (-) 75

6 Revisions Revision A1 Date 13th May 2015 Prepared Richard Aukland and Richard Garlick Revision A2 Changes Minor edits Date 21st May 2015 Prepared Richard Aukland Checked and approved by Richard Aukland - Director of Research This document has been prepared in good faith on the basis of information available at the date of publication. 4C Offshore does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, reliability, completeness or currency of the information in this publication nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. Readers are responsible for assessing the relevance and accuracy of the content of this publication. 4C Offshore will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication

7 Water Depth (m) Distance to Shore (km) 2. Market Development to Date Early offshore wind projects in Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK were all near shore and shallow water with an average of 6m water depth and 4km to shore (Figure 1). These pioneering projects included Denmark s 20 turbine Middelgrunden project and Irene Vorrink in the Netherlands. The proximity to shore allowed all projects before 2002 to avoid the requirement of high voltage transmission and instead use 33kV cables similar to those used for array cabling to export to shore. As projects became larger and were sited further from shore it became economic to introduce an offshore substation for stepping the voltage up from medium to high in order to reduce transmission losses. Two Danish projects, Horns Rev 1 (160MW, 18km) and Nysted (165.5MW, 11km) were the first to use offshore substations in Since then HVAC transmission has become the most common solution. Projects in the German EEZ, necessarily far from shore (often in excess of 100km) due to the presence of the protected Wadden Sea National Park and busy shipping lanes are connected to shore via high voltage direct current (HVDC) in order to reduce electrical losses associated with AC transmission. Figure 2 shows the proportion of capacity currently installed or underway that is being exported via the different technologies across Europe. HVAC is currently the most prevalent, with HVDC only used in Germany at present. MVAC is still being used on projects today, indeed the two European projects entering construction in Q (Vattenfall s Kentish Flats Extension project and Westermeerwind in the Netherland s Ijsselmeer lake) are both close to shore and exporting at 33kV. This is reflected in the anomalously low water depth and distance from shore for projects underway in Q (Figure 1) Deeper & further <= Year Water Depth Distance to Shore Figure 1. Water depth and distance to shore at installed or underway European projects 25% 12% 63% MVAC HVAC HVDC Figure 2. Percent of capacity being exported via transmission technology (MVAC, HVAC, HVDC) Figure 3. Nysted's substation (HVAC transformer) and Helwin Alpha (HVDC converter station) 4C Offshore :European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast

8 HVAC Export Cable (km) MVAC Export Cable (km) Total Cable (km) Capacity Entering Construction (GW) Total Array Cable (km) Between 2002 and 2014 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for offshore wind cable installations averaged 30% year on year growth (Figure 4) with over 6000km of subsea cable installed at the end of % of cabling requirements are array cable and 31% HVAC export cable. By length only 7% is MVAC and 11% HVDC. Cable demand is driven largely by the UK and German markets with Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium contributing less. France, Norway and Portugal have no commercial scale deployments to date. It can be seen that MVAC export cabling is absent from the German market where projects have not been built close to shore. The appearance of the growth to decline in 2015 is misleading, this is a consequence of the fact that only Q1 projects have been included in these charts, a further 1.47GW of projects will start during the year. By comparison 2014 was a light year, with only 417MW entering construction GW GW % Array Cable % CAGR 9 GW 7 GW GW GW GW <= GW 500 Array MVAC Export HVAC Export HVDC Capacity 2015 projected 0 <= % HVAC Cable % MVAC Cable <= United Kingdom Germany France Netherlands Denmark Belgium Norway Portugal <= Figure 4. Offshore wind cabling to date plotted by offshore installation start year for projects to Q From top left to bottom right: Cumulative cable type for all countries; cumulative array cable by country; cumulative HVAC export cable by country and cumulative MVAC export cable. 4C Offshore :European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast

9 10. Market Share: Array Cable Supply 9% 7% 23% Array Cable (km) 9% Nexans NSW Draka Offshore JDR Cable Systems NEXANS 491 NSW 406 DRAKA OFFSHORE % 19% NKT Cables Parker Scanrope Other JDR CABLE SYSTEMS 319 NKT CABLES 191 PARKER SCANROPE 162 OTHER % Figure 5. Market share: array cable manufacture since 2010 COMPANY PROJECTS - Anholt (2011): 160km for 111x Siemens SWT turbines - Lincs (2011): 85.30km for 75x Siemens SWT turbines - Riffgat (2012): 24km for 30x Siemens SWT turbines - Borkum Riffgrund I (2013): 62km for 78x Siemens SWT turbines - West of Duddon Sands (2013): 107km for 108x Siemens SWT turbines - Westermost Rough (2013): 53km for 35x Siemens SWT turbines - BARD Offshore 1 (2010): 107km for 80x BARD 5.0MW turbines - Trianel Windpark Borkum Phase 1 (2011): 65km for 40x Areva Wind M turbines - Global Tech I (2012): 122km for 80x Areva Wind M turbines - Humber Gateway (2013): 82km for 73x Vestas V MW turbines - Kentish Flats Exension (2015): 30km for 15x MHI-Vestas V MW turbines - Walney Phase 2 (2011): 52km for 51x Siemens SWT turbines - Gwynt y Môr (2012): 148km for 160x Siemens SWT turbines - Kårehamn (2012): 18km for 16x Vestas V MW turbines - Teesside (2012): 10km for 27x Siemens SWT turbines - EnBW Baltic 2 (2013): 84km for 80x Siemens SWT turbines - Butendiek (2014): 87km for 80x Siemens SWT turbines - London Array Phase 1 (2011): 209km for 175x Siemens SWT turbines - Meerwind Ost/Sud (2012): 108km for 80x Siemens SWT turbines - Belwind Alstom Haliade Demonstration (2013): 1.8km for 1x Alstom Power Haliade 150-6MW turbine - EnBW Baltic 1 (2010): 21km for 21x Siemens SWT turbines - Walney Phase 1 (2010): 48km for 51x Siemens SWT turbines - Amrumbank West (2013): 90km for 80x Siemens SWT turbines - Eneco Luchterduinen (2014): 32km for 43x Vestas V MW turbines - DanTysk (2012): 111km for 80x Siemens SWT turbines - Northwind (2013): 51km for 72x Vestas V MW turbines Announced Contracts not yet Supplied Dudgeon Nordsee One Sandbank Borkum Riffgrund II Gode Wind 01 and 02 Gemini Nordergründe 4C Offshore :European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast

10 22. Country Overview: Netherlands Context and Ambition The Fourth Balkenende cabinet (dissolved in 2010) envisaged a large role for offshore wind, projecting over 5GW by 2020 to assist in meeting the 14.5% share of gross final energy consumption to be generated from renewable sources. However, the incoming Rutte Cabinet I (dissolved in 2012) found itself operating in the context of global recession and chose to realign subsidies in favour of competition rather than industrial support, effectively grinding the industry to a halt. With petrochemicals, greenhouse horticulture and transport accounting for a major share of the Dutch economy, the Netherlands has a high per capita energy consumption. Much energy is imported, about a third of which is consumed and the remainder exported as crude oil or oil products. Compared with other European countries, the Netherlands has relatively large fossil fuel reserves with approximately twenty years of gas reserves. In 2013 the government published the National Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth outlining a growth path defined by energy and climate objectives alongside gains in competitiveness, employment and exports. This supports long term aims within an international context, to achieve a completely sustainable energy supply system by Included were agreements to scale up renewable energy generation from 4.4% of total energy consumption in 2012 to 16% by 2023 and 14% by 2020 plus a target of 4450 MW operational offshore wind capacity by 2023 inclusive of the existing 1GW of secured capacity, to be supported through 18 billion of subsidies over five tender rounds. Routes to Market In order to implement the objectives of the Energy Agreement an offshore wind energy bill has been drafted (April 2015) outlining the new permitting and subsidy process for the first two sites of the Borssele wind farm zone (Figure 6). This will be the first tender in a series of five planned to secure 4450 MW of operational offshore wind capacity by Tender areas for development are restricted to those designated in the National Water Plan. Within areas, plots (kavels) are defined within which the wind farm can be built and under what conditions, based on the outcome of an environmental impact report and appropriate assessment. For each plot soil investigations and wind resource data will be made public to facilitate understanding of risks prior to bidding for subsidy. A new combined application procedure is being introduced for both licence and subsidy with the winner of the SDE+ subsidy receiving an exclusive development permit ( windvergunning ). The licence will combine the relevant licences needed under multiple acts, expediting development and reducing costs by an estimated 10%. The lowest bidder below the set maximum for the tender round is awarded the subsidy. The original suggested benchmark starting point for necessary offshore wind cost reductions is an average of 150/MWh in 2014, with an expected cost reduction of EUR 5 per MWh per year. The first subsidy applications are planned to be submitted from December 2015 to 31 st March 2016, with bids for site I, II or both sites accepted. Winners will be those with the lowest per kwh subsidy requirement. Maximum bids are not yet defined but suggested to be 150/MWh for a period of 15 years, a significant reduction on earlier proposals. The park must be operational within five years of the subsidy decision. 4C Offshore :European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast

11 Gemini Prinses Amaliawindpark Egmond aan Zee Eneco Luchterduinen 2017 Tender 2018 Tender 2019 Tender Lely Westermeerwind Irene Vorrink Borssele Site IV Borssele Site I Netherlands Borssele Site III Borssele Site II Figure 6. Map of current and future Netherlands offshore wind projects Development to Date Two commercial scale parks are currently operating in the Netherlands, 108MW Offshore Windpark Egmond Aan Zee (OWEZ) located 10km off the shore of Egmond aan Zee and 120MW Princes Amalia, 23km off the shore of Ijmuiden. Both started construction in 2006 under the so called Round 1 tender supported through the MEP (Environmental Quality Electricity Production) subsidy scheme, the precursor to the SDE scheme. In Round 2 twelve permits were granted, of which three were awarded SDE subsidies in 2010 following the tender process. From a total available budget of 4.5bn the Gemini project (formally comprised of BARD s Buitengaats and ZeeEnergie projects) received a maximum subsidy of 3.6bn and Eneco s Lucterduinen (formally known as Q10) received the remaining 989m. 129MW Luchterduinen, located 23km offshore from Noordwijk entered construction in July 2014 with full operation expected late Gemini (Northland, Siemens, HVC, Van Oord) began offshore cable work in March 2015 with full commissioning of the 600MW expected in The remaining nine Round 2 permits which have failed to secure a subsidy will lapse when the new energy bill comes into force. Excluding the nearshore 144MW Westermeerwind project, total offshore capacity commissioned or under construction totals 957MW. The SDE subsidies were awarded during a tender process in Parties with a building permit submitted a bid ( /MWh) which was corrected to allow for the distance to shore. Subsidies are valid for the first 2900 full load hours over 15 years, with payment equal to the difference between the bid price and the reference price. BARD s bid price is reported to be 170/MWh excluding the distance correction. 4C Offshore :European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast

12 Capacity Installed (MW) Early Demonstration, 19MW Round 1, 228MW 2019 Round 2, 729MW 2018 Nearshore, 144MW Commissioned In Construction Future 700MW Tender Figure 7. Netherlands progress to date and scale of future tenders Forecast to 2025 Following on from Westermeerwind and Gemini, remaining installations to 2025 will be driven by the tender rounds towards the government target of 4450MW. The 4C mid case growth scenario here has assumed a two-year delay in progress such that a full build-out will not be achieved in the forecast time frame. This is a rational assumption given the delays seen in all offshore tender plans in all European countries to date Figure 8. Cumulative installations according to 4C's 2025 projection. For specific projects please see the Appendix. Summary Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths Weaknesses Over 1GW installed or committed to date. Revised enthusiasm for offshore wind under the 2013 Energy Agreement, with a target of 4450MW operational by Streamlined permitting being legislated. Tender areas already undergone preliminary screening. Clear plan for evenly distributed tenders from Logistically suitable ports for construction and maintenance Future grid not dependent on offshore HVDC technology Previous postponement of offshore wind development and a habit of new Cabinets to change policy. Emphasis on reduction in costs as requirement for tenders. Scrapping of existing licenses will cost developers money Gemini, despite having been awarded a subsidy in 2010 did not enter construction until 2015 due to delays in reaching financial close - the project economics were improved through redesign. 4C Offshore :European Subsea Cable Report & Forecast