Emergence of climate services
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1 03/02/2014 Emergence of climate services 3 et 4 février 2013 Climate Services and Expertise Robert Vautard / N Papineau Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 1
2 Why the LABEX L-IPSL? To mobilize a Ile de France scientific community to address fundamental issues on climate trajectory After «The Economist» To build an infrastructure of international rank integrating climate observations, modeling and training to enhance diffusion of climate information and expertise Strength of the LABEX : long-term program (10 years, 6Meuros) Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 2
3 Objectives To help disseminate the use of our climate knowledge, tools and data out of the academic realm To develop innovation and applications of climate data, models and software for adaptation and mitigation of climate change To develop a network of entreprises to boost employment for our students and young researchers Feedback to research for other communities Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 3
4 Components Business & Public servicing (eg DRIAS) Research feedback New scientific issues New data & methods Pilot studies with users protoyping, demonstrators, innovation Expertise transfer several SMEs PRODIGUER Access, exploitation and analysis of CMIP5+CORDEX data Taylored data Bias correction, Indices Softwares Statistical tools Models IPSL Climate Services and Expertise web site (in construction) Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 4
5 Organization and strategy O Boucher, P Braconnot, N Caud, S Denvil, MA Foujols, S Joussaume, F Habets, H Le Treut, N Papineau, B Sultan, R Vautard, M Vrac Climate Services and Expertise «cell» Strategy definition Network building Projects & products definition Internal calls Budget 750 Keuros over 10 years to initiate External funding to develop Meetings ~every 2 months Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 5
6 National coordination & partnership Coordinated portals Coordinated international strategy Partnership projects Coordinated data flows Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 6
7 First projects NATIONAL Frame ALLENVI, MEDDE SCENARIOS FRANCE downscaling for DRIAS EXTREMOSCOPE attribution/interp.événe ments extrêmes PIREN-SEINE Impacts IPSL Climate Services and Expertise in development Prodiguer ESGF node Climate projections EUROPEAN Frame CLIP-C Données climatiques Indicateurs EUCLEIA Interprétation Attribution extrêmes E3P: Extreme events for energy providers OASIS: Open access model for insurances CLIMATE DATA FACTORY: climate data for entreprises International projects CSP Agriculture in West Africa INDUSTRIAL FRAME SEEN Heat waves and nuclear safety Developing industrial partnerships SME: AriaTechnologi es, Climpact- Metnext, NumTech, TEC SECIF Case studies Internal call IPSL-SME for expertise transfer Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 7
8 Ex. «products» in devt Bias-corrected projection data sets using CMIP5/CORDEX and advanced BC methods (CDFt, extremes, compound extremes, ) Climate change indices for industry sectors (energy, water, agriculture) Statistical downscaling softwares Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 8
9 Ex : Used water network (SECIF) Goal: to characterize future heavy rainfalls Analysis of results of simulations (EU ENSEMBLES) Test of correctionmethods (CERFACS SCRATCH10 + cdft (Vrac et al 2010) to downscale Actuel : model OK duration < intensity Grande diversité dans les projections ; tendance à la diminution Preliminary results Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 9
10 Tools for renewable energy & climate Energy mix scenario spatialization Evaluation of power output including climate change Evaluation of uncertainties Evaluation of climate impacts 2050-Present (extractable wind power) Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 10
11 Agriculture in Africa Evaluation of impacts of climate change (agriculture) Impact modeling Statistical/process modeling Scale issues Use of dynamical and statistical methods Current Future (Sultan et al. 2013) Adaptation of agriculture Change in yield mil & Sorgho (%) Evaluation of adaptation capacity Links with social science Évaluation of new strategies Courtesy of B Sultan Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 11
12 Projection of river discharge (F Habets) 1 colour =1 hydrological model 1 name =1 disaggregated projection Habets et al., Climatic Change modèles hydrologiques 7 projections désagrégées Reduction of discharge about 15% in 2050, and 30% in 2100 Large uncertainties: primarily due to climate change projections Chauveau et al Houille Blanche 2013 Progress source : CMIP5 (members) + downscaling Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 12
13 Simulation of adaptation options (F Habets) Principle : simulate a retension basin (in blue) Fed by a catchement (in green) In 2050, storage capacity is reduced by 30% on the Seine catchement % Habets et al., HESSD 2013 Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 13
14 Conclusions Developing activities on CSE at IPSL Data distribution and services PRODIGUER Data transformation and tayloring Prototype projects with users Software and models Push mode market not ready yet but buildup process Journées du Comité de visite de l AERES à l IPSL : 3-4 février 2014 Page 14
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