Economic and Real Estate Consulting MEMORANDUM

Transcription

1 Economic and Real Estate Consulting MEMORANDUM To: From: Ms. Maria Laughner Business & Real Estate Development Manager City of Peoria Rick Merritt Danny Court Date: August 12, 2011 Re: Peoria Digital Billboard Proposal Analysis 1.0 Introduction (EDPCo) was retained to provide an independent review of a business pro forma proposed by a private developer for the potential financing of two parking garages within the Peoria Sports Complex District. More specifically, the pro forma prepared by the developer, Osage West, outlines a revenue stream to partially assist with the debt service associated with the construction of the parking garages. The analysis includes a review of the pro forma prepared by Osage West, an evaluation of the feasibility study for the digital billboards proposed to finance the parking garage, and the collection of information on billboards in Greater Phoenix obtained through internet research and interviews conducted with outdoor media advertising companies. Pertinent information that was acquired during this process has been included and explained in the body of this report. Specific areas of analysis are the following: 1. Assessment of reasonable market acceptance and revenue potential from the sign package proposed by the developer. 2. Determination of a reasonable cash flow projection for the purpose of servicing debt on one or two parking garages. 3. Determination whether the identified cash flow from sign revenues will support the projected cost of the garages and resulting bond debt service. 4. Determination whether sign revenue is an acceptable source of revenue for servicing of City debt for the garages. 5. Recommendations on financing options and alternatives for the parking garages, if the developer s sign package is deemed unacceptable. 1

2 2.0 Overview 2.1 Review of Materials Provided Our firm has reviewed the business pro forma and supplemental materials provided by the developer, Osage West. Support materials supplied by the developer for the revenue assumptions consist of a rate card from CBS Outdoor for each digital sign current as of May 2011 in the metro area and the current rate for an American Outdoor billboard located on the Loop 101 freeway just north of Glendale Avenue. Osage West appears to have an agreement with LCO Outdoor Advertising to install and manage the billboard operation which is proposed as a financing mechanism for the proposed parking garages. Following a meeting at the City on August 2, 2011, a new pro forma was submitted to the City by Osage West. received the revised pro forma on August 11, This pro forma reduced the expected lease rate for the freeway signs from $4,500 per advertising spot per month to $3,500. The developer also changed the revenue sharing arrangement from a 60% City-40% developer split to 80% City-20% developer split starting in January Prior to 2014, all sign revenue would accrue to the developer. Analysis of the revised pro forma is provided in a later section of this report. 2.2 Digital Billboard Inventory, Metrics & Pricing Our firm located every known commercial digital billboard display in the Metro region and identified its owner. There are essentially three major companies with a strong presence in digital billboard displays which include American Outdoor, Clear Channel Outdoor, and CBS Outdoor. Our firm also located one smaller company, Becker Boards, which owns one digital display according to our research. In addition, we collected general information on traditional static billboards which likely play an important role in determining pricing potential of digital signs. The following map displays the locations of digital billboards. 2

3 Metro Phoenix Digital Billboard Inventory City of Peoria Billboard Proposal Analysis 3

4 Companies were contacted about the pricing for digital billboards. CBS Outdoor provided a pricing schedule for individual locations. Other companies only gave a general range of pricing subject to individual clients and other sold billboard slots as a package deal with multiple locations. Within the advertising industry, the standard mechanism for comparing different media formats is known as the cost per thousand impressions (CPM). The CPM in the table uses the pricing and the number of impressions reported by the company. The CPM helps the potential advertiser to gauge how cost effectiveness of the billboard compared to other mediums as well as other companies. The following chart shows the number of panels and general price range. Digital Billboard Inventory Greater Phoenix Company Price Range CPM Number of Panels Low High Low High American Outdoor 30 $3,500 $5,500 $2.17 $6.29 Beckerboards 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A CBS 12 $1,000 $7,500 $1.53 $8.86 Clear Channel 34 $2,667 $2,667 $2.54 $27.92 Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, Arizona Department of Transportation, City of Phoenix, Internet Research The responses regarding the pricing of billboard contracts from representatives of the major billboard companies were similar. The overarching theme is that the billboard industry is similar to the real estate industry. A billboard s value (and therefore revenue potential) is determined by metrics such as size, location, traffic volume, type, quality and other factors. For instance, signs that are illuminated or receive high traffic volume may expect higher ad prices. Similarly, a digital display will generate higher prices than a static display. This is the result of the digital billboard s its ability to change displays every eight seconds and to accommodate seven to eight advertisers on one sign. The flashy nature of the signs allows for a greater probability of being noticed which increases the number of impressions and in turn also increases the price. Competition from other billboards in an area will also likely have a price effect. There appears to be an inverse relationship between the number (or density) of billboards in an area, whether static or digital, and the pricing of billboards. In other words, the greater the number of signs along a roadway potentially results in lower billboard price and revenue. 4

5 More specifically, our firm gathered as much information as possible regarding each of the digital displays in the metro area for comparison to the Peoria proposal. Information, beyond location, includes weekly traffic count (both as reported by sign companies and by ADOT), a metric known as E.O.I. (Eyes on Impression), and current lease rates. Daily Effective Circulation (DEC) is a metric used in the billboard industry and represents the total number of potential viewers that pass a given sign each day. This figure is typically based on the traffic counts for a given street. The Traffic Audit Bureau for Media Measurements created a new measurement technique called EOI (Eyes on Impressions) as a more accurate measure of viewers than the DEC. The EOI is a weekly count of the number of people likely to notice a given ad. According to the developers of the EOI measurement, there are several factors that influence the number of impressions such as media format, location, size, and other physical factors. By the design of the measurement, it should be a more conservative estimate of impressions because the DEC is decreased to adjust for visibility. Some companies have switched to the new system of EOI while others still use the DEC. In order to compare between companies, we expanded the DECs to a weekly count. In addition to the impression counts reported by the companies, we also provided the traffic counts for each location based on Arizona Department of Transportation reports and city traffic counts. The traffic count reports the number of cars that travel a portion of road during a given day but do not account for the number of people in the car which could also increase the potential number of impressions. The following tables detail the inventory of companies that provide digital billboard advertising in Maricopa County. Each of the listed locations represents a panel that can charge up to 8 advertisers at a time for an 8 second slot. When companies were unwilling to divulge individual location prices, the potential range for the billboard was used. CBS Outdoor was the only company that provided actual pricing rates for their digital billboards, though they indicated this is in the absence of package deals or any other discounts that are typical when providing a firm estimate to an advertising client and should be considered on the high end of current pricing. 5

6 Billboard* Street Location Street Boundaries American Outdoor Digital Billboard Inventory Facing Reported Weekly DECs Price Range Per Month CPM Range Weekly Traffic Count Low High Low High 1 Loop 202 Loop 101 Hayden Rd East 1,190,000 1,015,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.94 $ Loop 202 Loop 101 Hayden Rd West 1,190,000 1,015,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.94 $ Loop 202 Loop 101 Hayden Rd East 1,190,000 1,015,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.94 $ Loop 202 Loop 101 Hayden Rd West 1,190,000 1,015,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.94 $ Loop 101 Loop 202 University Dr North 1,260,000 1,330,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.78 $ Loop 101 Loop 202 University Dr South 1,260,000 1,330,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.78 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd North 875,000 1,470,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4.00 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd South 875,000 1,470,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4.00 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd North 875,000 1,470,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4.00 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd South 875,000 1,470,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4.00 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd North 1,057,000 1,470,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.31 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd South 1,057,000 1,470,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.31 $ Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave North 1,057, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.31 $ Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave South 1,057, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.31 $ Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave North 1,050, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.33 $ Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave South 1,050, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.33 $ I-17 Peoria Ave Cactus Rd North 1,050,000 1,260,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.33 $ I-17 Peoria Ave Cactus Rd South 1,050,000 1,260,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.33 $ I-10 51st Ave 43rd Ave East 947,100 1,617,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.70 $ I-17 Thomas Rd Indian School Rd South 1,050,000 1,344,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.33 $ I-10 Grand Ave Interstate 17 West 1,414,000 1,750,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.48 $ I-10 Grand Ave Interstate 17 East 1,414, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.48 $ I-10 24th St 40th St East 1,470,000 1,708,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.38 $ I-10 24th St 40th St West 1,470,000 1,708,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.38 $ I-10 91st Ave Loop 101 East 947,100 1,316,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.70 $ I-10 91st Ave Loop 101 West 947,100 1,316,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.70 $ I-10 83rd Ave 91st Ave East 947,100 1,365,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.70 $ I-10 83rd Ave 91st Ave West 947,100 1,365,000 $3,500 $5,500 $3.70 $ I-10 US Highway 60 Broadway Rd North 1,610,000 1,596,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.17 $ I-10 US Highway 60 Broadway Rd South 1,610,000 1,596,000 $3,500 $5,500 $2.17 $3.42 *Billboard numbers repeat due to the same billboard having multiple panels. Each panel is described for weekly DECs and the direction it faces. Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, Arizona Department of Transportation, City of Phoenix, American Outdoors 6

7 AMERICAN OUTDOOR 7

8 CBS Digital Billboard Inventory Billboard* Reported Weekly Street Weekly Traffic Price Per Location Street Boundaries Facing DECs Count Month CPM 1 University Dr SR th Street West 157,710 84,000 $1,000 $ SR 143 University Dr Broadway Rd North 383, ,500 $2,500 $ I-17 Bell Rd Union Hills Dr North 729, ,000 $3,500 $ I-17 Deer Valley Dr Loop 101 South 604, ,000 $2,500 $ I-10 19th Ave Interstate 17 West 1,232,700 1,750,000 $3,500 $ I-10 19th Ave Interstate 17 East 1,635,970 1,750,000 $3,500 $ I-10 40th St 48th St West 1,530,690 1,687,000 $4,500 $ I-10 Van Buren St Roosevelt St North 1,635, ,000 $2,500 $ Loop 202 Priest Dr Van Buren St North 915,180 1,169,000 $2,500 $ Loop 101 Cave Creek Rd 32nd St East 846,300 1,050,000 $7,500 $ I-17 McDowell Rd Thomas Rd South 1,064,630 1,386,000 $5,500 $ I-17 Northern Ave Dunlap Ave South 1,042,720 1,407,000 $3,500 $3.36 *Billboard numbers repeat due to the same billboard having multiple panels. Each panel is described for weekly DECs and the direction it faces. Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, Arizona Department of Transportation, City of Phoenix, CBS 8

9 CBS OUTDOOR 9

10 Clear Channel Digital Billboard Inventory Billboard* Street Location Street Boundaries Facing Reported Weekly EOI Weekly Traffic Count Average Price Per Month Average Cost Per 1,000 EOI 1 I-10 Ray Rd Chandler Rd North 384, ,000 $2,667 $ I-10 Ray Rd Chandler Rd South 690, ,000 $2,667 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd North 381,058 1,470,000 $2,667 $ I-10 Baseline Rd Elliot Rd South 403,001 1,470,000 $2,667 $ I-10 University Dr 24th St NW 569,254 1,708,000 $2,667 $ I-10 University Dr 24th St East 753,398 1,708,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Deer Valley Dr Pinnacle Peak Rd North 676, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Deer Valley Dr Pinnacle Peak Rd South 586, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 16th St 7th St West 796, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 16th St 7th St East 1,049, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Central Ave 7th Ave East 543, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Central Ave 7th Ave West 369, ,000 $2,667 $ th St Buckeye Rd Washington St South 95,538 91,000 $2,667 $ th St Buckeye Rd Washington St North 123,096 91,000 $2,667 $ I-10 51st Ave 59th Ave East 676,039 1,575,000 $2,667 $ I-17 McDowell Rd Thomas Rd North 626,535 1,386,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Camelback Rd Bethany Home Rd North 323,072 1,330,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Camelback Rd Bethany Home Rd South 305,501 1,330,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Northern Ave Dunlap Ave South 176,800 1,407,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Loop 101 Deer Valley Dr North 753, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Deer Valley Dr Pinnacle Peak Rd South 798, ,000 $2,667 $ I-10 Grand Ave Interstate 17 East 626,535 1,750,000 $2,667 $ Loop 202 Priest Dr 52nd St SE 384,372 1,169,000 $2,667 $ SR 143 University Dr Washington St North 586, ,400 $2,667 $ Jefferson St Interstate 10 16th St West 993,844 67,900 $2,667 $ Washington St 24th St 32nd St East 418,921 37,100 $2,667 $ Jefferson St Interstate 10 16th St East 356,068 67,900 $2,667 $ Thomas Rd 32nd St 40th St East 123, ,600 $2,667 $ Indian School Rd State Route 51 24th St East 552, ,000 $2,667 $ Indian School Rd Interstate 17 27th Ave East 127, ,000 $2,667 $ I-17 Cactus Rd Thunderbird Rd North 552,612 1,155,000 $2,667 $ I-17 McDowell Rd Thomas Rd North 473,598 1,386,000 $2,667 $ I-10 University Dr 24th St East 131,837 1,708,000 $2,667 $ I-10 University Dr 24th St NW 278,729 1,708,000 $2,667 $9.57 *Billboard numbers repeat due to the same billboard having multiple panels. Each panel is described for weekly EOIs and the direction it faces. Note: EOI is an industry system of measuring the Eyes on Impression over the course of a week. This count is multiplied by a visibility factor that decreases the measurements of the daily traffic count. Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, Arizona Department of Transportation, City of Phoenix, Clear Channel 10

11 CLEAR CHANNEL OUTDOOR City of Peoria Billboard Proposal Analysis 11

12 Beckerboards Digital Billboard Inventory Billboard* Location Street Boundaries Facing Reported Weekly DECs Weekly Traffic Count 1 I-10 27th Ave 35th Ave East 1,415,190 2,051,000 1 I-10 27th Ave 35th Ave West 1,415,190 2,051,000 *Billboard numbers repeat due to the same billboard having multiple panels. Each panel is described for weekly DECs and the direction it faces. Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, ADOT, City of Phoenix, Beckerboards 2.3 Static Billboards In addition, available information was collected on the general location of static billboards. Data was collected from websites, however, and does not show precise location, but rather density of boards. 2.3 Loop 101 Competition A physical survey was also conducted of the static and digital billboards located along the Loop- 101 from Interstate 10 on the south to SR 51 on the north. Results are shown on the following map. 12

13 13

14 The Loop 101 billboard survey shows that, in addition to the two digital billboards on the west side of the freeway north of Glendale Avenue, there are also two static two-panel billboards located on the east side of the Loop 101 freeway south of Glendale Avenue in the Westgate City Center property. Near Cave Creek Road where an east-facing digital CBS Outdoor billboard is located, a west-facing static billboard is also positioned on the opposite side of the pedestal. These are the only billboards along a 30 mile stretch of freeway from the Loop 101 s intersection with I-10 on the south to the Scottsdale city boundary on the north. The developer of the Peoria proposal, Osage West, has stated that the billboards on the Loop 101 at Glendale Avenue are price at $4,500 per eight second spot. Although we have not been able to independently confirm that pricing, we have no reason to doubt its accuracy. The highest priced billboard according to CBS Outdoor is the Loop 101 and Cave Creek Road sign at $7,500 per spot. However, we understand from the meeting of August 2, 2011 that this price was obtained from just one advertiser for the last available spot on the digital sign. The average fee charged to other advertisers at that location is less, although we do not have information on what those fees are. The pricing of the static signs along the Loop 101 at Westgate City Center south of Glendale Avenue have been confirmed at $15,000 per month with an asking rate of $20,000 per month. Rents have never been lower than $10,000 per month and vacancy averages 90% over the 1½ years that the signs have been in existence. Out of CBS Outdoor s twelve digital signs, only two others are priced at or higher than $4,500 (one on 1-17 between McDowell and Thomas Roads is priced at $5,500 and one on I-10 near 40 th Street is priced at $4,500). 14

15 3.0 Analysis of Billboard Market Based on a review of the CBS Outdoor data, it appears that static billboards can indeed affect the pricing of digital billboards from a competitive standpoint. Some specific examples are the digital signs located on I-17 and I-10 which have huge traffic volumes, but moderate pricing. The average CBS Outdoor pricing for I-17 signs is $3,750 per spot with average DECs in excess of 860,000; for digital signs along I-10, the average pricing is $3,500 per spot with average DECs of over 1.4 million. Through our research on the digital billboard display market, it appears that the proposed lease rate of $4,500 per spot could be achievable for the proposed Peoria billboards at the current time. For reference, the signs listed on the following table would be considered the closest competition to the proposed sign locations in Peoria. Again, it is difficult to definitively confirm current rates due to their limited release by sign companies (Clear Channel prices are based on a package deal to advertise on a network of 5-6 signs) and we have not been able to confirm actual digital lease rates except for the CBS signs. American Outdoor, which owns the Loop 101 at Glendale Avenue signs, lists the price range from $3,500 to $5,500 per month. Actual pricing, if accurate, as indicated by Osage West, is $4,500. Signs along the Loop 101 could carry higher than average lease rates as well as higher CPM (cost per thousand impressions) rates because of the lack of competing digital and static billboards along the length of the freeway. Billboard Inventory Closest To Proposed Peoria Billboard Sites Suggested Price Range Per Reported Weekly or Month Weekly Traffic Confirmed Company Location Street Boundaries Type Facing DECs Count Low High Price CPM American Outdoor Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave Digital North 1,057, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4,500 $4.26 American Outdoor Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave Digital South 1,057, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4,500 $4.26 American Outdoor Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave Digital North 1,050, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4,500 $4.29 American Outdoor Loop 101 Glendale Ave Northern Ave Digital South 1,050, ,000 $3,500 $5,500 $4,500 $4.29 Branded Cities Loop 101 Glendale Ave Bethany Home Rd Static (2) North 1,050, ,000 $10,000 $20,000 $15,000 $14.29 Branded Cities Loop 102 Glendale Ave Bethany Home Rd Static (2) South 1,050, ,000 $10,000 $20,000 $15,000 $14.29 CBS Loop 101 Cave Creek Rd 32nd St Digital East 846,300 1,050,000 $7,500 $8.86 Clear Channel I-17 Deer Valley Dr Pinnacle Pk Rd Digital North 676, ,000 $2,667 $2,667 $3.95 Clear Channel I-17 Deer Valley Dr Pinnacle Pk Rd Digital South 586, ,000 $2,667 $2,667 $4.55 Clear Channel I-17 Loop 101 Deer Valley Dr Digital North 753, ,000 $2,667 $2,667 $3.54 Clear Channel I-17 Deer Valley Dr Pinnacle Pk Rd Digital South 798, ,000 $2,667 $2,667 $3.34 *Billboard numbers repeat due to the same billboard having multiple panels. Each panel is described for weekly DECs and the direction it faces. Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, Arizona Department of Transportation, City of Phoenix, Internet Research Some of our primary concerns or issues related to the Osage West proposal are the following: Traffic volumes on the Loop 101 are lower than many other freeway locations; however, billboard lease rates at those other location with higher volumes are typically lower. For instance, traffic volumes on the Loop 101 at Glendale Avenue are approximately equal to volumes at I-17 and Bell Road. The CBS digital sign at 15

16 that location is priced at $3,500 per month. Signs located on I-10 near 19 th Avenue experience twice as much traffic as the Loop 101 at Glendale Avenue, but are priced at $3,500 per month. Several static and digital billboards from other companies are also found at this location. While there are certainly unique situations that affect the visibility of signs and revenue, we can only conclude that the lack of digital and static billboards on the Loop 101 today likely results in above average rates. However, if the City allows the installation of five digital billboards (ten panels in all) within one stretch of freeway, is that going to result in a lowering of lease rates? More than likely, we believe there will be some effect. In addition to the above concerns, other issues must be considered. If the City ends its prohibition of billboards and opens the door for other companies to submit permits for billboards, how will it control the number and placement of those signs? If the City disapproves of additional signs or makes it overly restrictive that additional signs cannot be placed along the freeway, will it be opening itself to lawsuits from sign companies for showing preferential treatment to the City-owned billboards? In our opinion, these issues must be considered since they will likely affect the revenue that could be generated from the proposed digital signs. In our opinion, there appears to be sufficient data to demonstrate there is the risk that the expected lease rate of $4,500 per month for the digital signs may not be achieved on a long term or consistent basis. As shown above, most billboards do not command the $4,500 or above level. Many sites have current rates in the $2,500 to $3,500 range, even though the sites have higher DECs and EOIs. Though various locations are not perfectly comparable to the proposed sites, the existence of lower fee levels demonstrate that location, local economic conditions and/or competition can affect revenue. The next section will review a revised pro forma from Osage West and provide updated information on the expected advertising rates for the billboards and ultimate number of signs proposed along the Loop 101 freeway and within the Sports Complex District. 16

17 4.0 Analysis of Osage West Pro Forma We have used the format of the revised Osage West pro forma dated August 10, 2011 to prepare revenue estimates based on six double sided 14 feet by 48 feet billboards (total of twelve panels), 19 single panel monument signs (five feet by ten feet in size) and a double panel monument sign located in the Sports Complex District designed for City use. This latter sign would not generate any revenue. Of the 14 feet by 48 feet signs, five would be placed on the Loop 101 freeway and one would be placed on 83 rd Avenue within the District. 4.1 Digital Sign Capital Expenditures The following tables show the capital cost of the digital signs, expected operating expenses and potential revenues. The overall capital cost of the signs is estimated at slightly less than $3.7 million. An additional 12% merchant build fee is added to the cost of the signs. The July 28, 2011 letter to Maria Laughner from Osage West seems to indicate that this fee is in place of a 30% markup on the labor and material typically charged to install the signs. We have not seen any documentation to confirm this. A capital raise fee totaling $222,480 is also added to the total cost of the digital sign costs. We would caution the City to confirm that these fees are reasonable, accurate and necessary for the installation of the signs. Assumptions Signage Costs # Signs 14' x 48' HWY Double Sided 6 5' x 10' Single Panels 19 5' x 10' Double Panel 1 Private Property Lease/annual 2 Ad Spots per Panel 8 Capital Expenditures Per Sign Total 14' x 48' Double Sided Signs Lights $410,000 $2,460,000 Signboard/Pole Installed $100,000 $600,000 Permits/Fees $15,000 $90,000 Misc. $5,000 $30,000 Total 14' x 48' Signs $530,000 $3,180,000 5' x 10' Double Panels $20,000 $380,000 5' x 10' Single Panels $148,000 $148,000 Total 5' x10' Signs $168,000 $528,000 Total Capital Expenditures $3,708,000 LCO Outdoor Advertising Merchant Build Fee 12% $444,960 Capital Raise Fee 6% $222,480 Capital Investment $4,375,440 From the information provided by Osage West, we have not been able to verify the cost for construction of the signs. The letter from the supplier, JNE Consulting, indicates that LED modules for a 14 foot by 48 foot sign would cost $105,600 per panel or $211,200 per sign. Total 17

18 cost of the lights shown in the table above is $410,000 per sign. This higher cost could include structural elements, but we are unable to confirm this. We would need more information if the City desires to question the costs of the signs or the merchant build fee of 12% of total capital expenditures. 4.2 Operating Expenses Operating expenses were developed from Osage West s estimates. We have no particular knowledge whether the office and administration expense are reasonable, but they do not seem excessive. However, we have added a reserve account to the operating expenses for replacement of the signs over time. A letter from JNE Consulting submitted by Osage West indicates that the life of the LED modules is up to 20 years. Using this estimate, we established a 5% annual reserve budget of $186,000 or $15,500 per month based only on the cost of the signs (excluding the 12% merchant build fee and capital raise fee). The reserve account shown on the original Osage West pro forma is listed as 1% of operating expenses or $5,220 per year. The latest pro forma available from Osage West dated August 10, 2011 increased that reserve to 8% of operating costs, which still has no relationship to the replacement cost of the signs and amounts to $34,680 per year or $693,600 after 20 years. While the vendor contract does include some replacement parts in the early years of the operation, there is no significant revenue set aside for replacing the modules or other parts of the signs as they wear out. The following operating pro forma represents our adjustments to expenses including a prudent replacement reserve expense. Operating Expenses Per Sign Monthly Office Expense $7,500 Administration $15,000 City/County Ground Leases $0 Electricity/APS 14' x 48' HWY Double Sided $1,000 $6,000 5' x 10' Single Panels $125 $2,375 5' x 10' Double Panels $250 $250 Private Property Leases $3,333 City Fees $0 Misc. Fixed $5,000 Operating Expense Totals $39,458 Reserves % of Cost (5% Annual) 0.42% $15,500 Total Monthly Costs $54,958 Management Fee Sales Commission 5.00% of Sales 10.00% of Sales Other changes in the revised Osage West pro forma include a reduction in the electricity cost from $10,000 to $6,000 per month. 4.3 Revenue Osage West has revised its revenue estimates for signs located on the Loop 101 freeway from $4,500 to $3,500 per eight second spot lease rate with eight advertisers per month. We have accepted these rates as a realistic scenario for the calculation of potential revenue. The other 14 18

19 foot by 48 foot sign will be located on 83 rd Avenue with a proposed lease rate of $1,000 per eight second spot. We have not been able to confirm if this lease rate is reasonable as there are no signs in similar locations with modest traffic counts. Average daily traffic on 83 rd Avenue is 18,200 or 127,400 per week (2008 counts). By comparison, Bell Road carries about 69,000 cars per day at the Loop 101 interchange (2008 counts). We have no point of reference or confirmation of the lease rates for the 19 single-sided signs that will be placed throughout the Sports Complex District. We know of no similar signage in the Greater Phoenix area. Expected revenue from these 19 signs represents about 13% of the gross sign and billboard revenue. The large number of signs located in a small area may make selling of advertising more competitive, leading to lower revenue. However, we have no way of measuring the potential revenue from these signs. Net annual revenue from the signs based on Osage West s revised pricing is estimated at $3,484,320 as shown on the following table. This differs from Osage West s estimate of $3,595,200 because the developer did not account for a vacancy rate for the 83 rd Avenue sign or the 19 smaller monument signs. Gross Revenues Ad Sales Panels Rate Per Spot Monthly Revenue Per Panel Total Monthly Revenues Total Annual Revenues 14' x 48' HWY Double Sided 10 $3,500 $28,000 $280,000 $3,360,000 14' x 48' Double Sided on 83rd Ave. 2 $1,000 $8,000 $16,000 $192,000 5' x 10' Single Sided Monument 19 $300 $2,400 $45,600 $547,200 5' x 10' Double Sided Monument - City use 2 $0 $0 $0 $0 Gross Revenue $341,600 $4,099,200 Vacancy Rate 15% ($51,240) ($614,880) Net Revenue $290,360 $3,484,320 Osage West has proposed in its latest cash flow analysis dated August 10, 2011 that the split of cash flow between the City and Osage West begin in 2014 on an 80%-20% basis. Prior to 2014, Osage West would retain all cash flow from the billboards. The following cash flow summary assumes that sign revenue would be generated by January At this late date, this assumption is likely optimistic. However, based on the above revenue and operating expense data, the stabilized cash flow from sign revenue is estimated on the following table at approximately $2.34 million with the City s 80% portion starting in 2014 at $1.87 million. These estimates differ from Osage West s latest cash flow estimate as a result of our recommendation to: Increase the replacement reserve fund to $15,500 per month and Applying a vacancy rate to the 83 rd Avenue sign and the 19 smaller signs. Osage West estimated the City s share of sign revenue would be $2.02 million per year compared to EDPCo s estimate of $1.87 million. All estimates are based on 2011 dollars; an inflation factor has not been included in the forecast. 19

20 Forecasted Cash Flow From Digital Signs Based on $3,500 Monthly Freeway Advertising Spot Revenues Ad Sales $2,641,800 $3,019,200 $3,484,320 $3,484,320 $3,484,320 $3,484,320 $3,484,320 Expenses Operating Costs $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 Sales Commission $264,180 $301,920 $348,432 $348,432 $348,432 $348,432 $348,432 Management Fee $132,090 $150,960 $174,216 $174,216 $174,216 $174,216 $174,216 Reserve/Replacement $186,000 $186,000 $186,000 $186,000 $186,000 $186,000 $186,000 Total Expenses $1,015,770 $1,072,380 $1,142,148 $1,142,148 $1,142,148 $1,142,148 $1,142,148 Operating Cash Flow Before Splits $1,626,030 $1,946,820 $2,342,172 $2,342,172 $2,342,172 $2,342,172 $2,342,172 City* 80% $0 $0 $1,873,738 $1,873,738 $1,873,738 $1,873,738 $1,873,738 Developer 20% $1,626,030 $1,946,820 $468,434 $468,434 $468,434 $468,434 $468,434 * Peoria receives no cash flow in first two years. 4.4 Parking Garage Construction Costs Parking garage construction costs submitted by Osage West, based on estimates from Manhattan Construction, show the base cost for the off-site or Harkin s garage at $11.9 million ($13,992 per space or $42.54 per square foot) and the cost for the on-site garage at $18.8 million ($18,327 per space or $49.25 per square foot). Research from several sources indicates that parking garages in Greater Phoenix should cost approximately $15,000 per space or $43 per square foot. The costs of the individual garages vary from this average, but are within reason. With the additional panels for art work, the cost increases to $15,853 per space for the off-site garage and $20,152 per space for the on-site garage. The total construction cost of the garages appears reasonable. However, soliciting bids for construction in the current economic environment could produce savings to the City. The assumptions for construction of the garages by Osage West are shown on the following chart. Some of the costs, such as financing and accrued interest will not be necessary since the City plans to issue bonds for financing of the garages. However, we seriously question the developer s imposition of a merchant build fee of 12% and an additional development management fee of 4%. 20

21 Osage West Garage Assumptions Off-Site Garage Construction Total Cost Cost/Space # of spaces 851 Cost of Construction $13,490,571 $15,853 Less: Developer's Share of Cost ($2,740,672) ($3,221) Development Management Fee and Overhead 4.0% $539,623 $634 Developer "Merchant Build" Fee 12.0% $1,618,869 $1,902 Financing Costs 3.5% $472,170 $555 Accrued Construction Interest $223,009 $262 Total Cost and Loan Amount $13,603,569 $15,985 On-Site Garage Construction Total Cost Cost/Space # of spaces 1,024 Cost of Construction $20,635,416 $20,152 Less: Developer's Share of Cost $0 $0 Development Management Fee and Overhead 4.0% $825,417 $806 Developer "Merchant Build" Fee 12.0% $2,476,250 $2,418 Financing Costs 3.5% $722,240 $705 Accrued Construction Interest $410,989 $401 Total Cost and Loan Amount $25,070,311 $24,483 recently conducted a survey of major developers in the Greater Phoenix area regarding construction developer fees. The respondents indicated that fees range from 3.0% to 4.0% of construction cost and are dependent on the developer s investment in the project. A project with a low level of developer participation would typically receive a fee at the lower end of the range while one with a higher level of investment would receive a higher fee. Since Osage West has limited investment in the garages (we do not have knowledge of the specific arrangement between the City and the developer to share in the cost of the off-site garage), we would expect the fee be in the range cited above. The following tables show the recommended cost for the garage construction by eliminating some costs and reducing the fee structure. We have assumed a 4% developer fee for the off-site garage if Osage West is sharing in the cost. A 3% developer fee is assumed for the on-site garage where Osage West has no investment. Overall, the City, not the developer, is the one at risk for repayment of bonds related to the garages. A merchant build fee is not warranted. 21

22 Off-Site Garage Recommended Parking Garage Cost Structure Construction Total Cost Cost/Space # of spaces 851 Cost of Construction $13,490,571 $15,853 Less: Developer's Share of Cost ($2,740,672) ($3,221) Development Management Fee and Overhead 4.0% $539,623 $634 Developer "Merchant Build" Fee 0.0% $0 $0 Financing Costs 0.0% $0 $0 Accrued Construction Interest $0 $0 Total Cost and Loan Amount $11,289,522 $13,266 On-Site Garage Construction Total Cost Cost/Space # of spaces 1,024 Cost of Construction $20,635,416 $20,152 Less: Developer's Share of Cost $0 $0 Development Management Fee and Overhead 3.0% $619,062 $605 Developer "Merchant Build" Fee 0.0% $0 $0 Financing Costs 0.0% $0 $0 Accrued Construction Interest $0 $0 Total Cost and Loan Amount $21,254,478 $20, Debt Service The City supplied this firm debt service schedules from TL Hocking and Associates for the individual parking garages based on current bond interest rates. The overall interest rate for a 15-year bond (the term preferred by the City staff) is just over 3.0%. The forecasted debt service payments have been adjusted by this firm for lower construction costs as outlined in the table above (after eliminating certain financing costs and reducing the developer management fees). The following debt service schedule assumes that bonds for the construction of the two garages would be issued in July 2012 (FY 2013) designed to coincide with the City s fiscal year. A capitalized interest fund would be established as part of the bond issue to pay interest in the first year, due in July The first payment required from the City would be due in July 2014 and the last payment due in July The following table outlines total debt service for the two garages based on the construction cost of the garages as outlined in the table above. 22

23 Parking Garage Debt Service Off-Site Harkins On-Site Garage Garage Total Construction Cost $11,300,000 $21,300,000 $32,600,000 Date Debt Service Debt Service Totals 7/1/2012 $0 $0 $0 7/1/2013 $0 $0 $0 7/1/2014 $989,472 $1,857,316 $2,846,789 7/1/2015 $919,638 $1,859,654 $2,779,291 7/1/2016 $924,563 $1,861,298 $2,785,861 7/1/2017 $919,038 $1,862,278 $2,781,316 7/1/2018 $923,288 $1,862,561 $2,785,849 7/1/2019 $922,088 $1,857,180 $2,779,268 7/1/2020 $920,550 $1,861,254 $2,781,804 7/1/2021 $940,531 $1,859,508 $2,800,039 7/1/2022 $962,853 $1,857,495 $2,820,347 7/1/2023 $969,833 $1,860,459 $2,830,292 7/1/2024 $980,113 $1,859,406 $2,839,518 7/1/2025 $984,509 $1,858,545 $2,843,054 7/1/2026 $986,341 $1,858,152 $2,844,493 7/1/2027 $987,718 $1,860,069 $2,847,787 7/1/2028 $996,336 $1,857,752 $2,854,088 Totals $14,326,867 $27,892,928 $42,219,795 Sources: TL Hocking & Associates, Elliott D. Pollack & Co. 4.6 Revenue Vs. Debt Payments The following table shows the forecasted city distributions from the sign revenue at the $3,500 monthly freeway advertising spot compared to the 15-year bond payments outlined previously. Depending on the timing of the installation of the billboards, issuance of bonds and the construction of the garages, the City could have a large deficit for the July 2014 payment. If revenue sharing from the billboards begins in January 2014, the City will receive one-half of its annual revenue sharing payment between January and June which represents the second half of FY However, a full debt service payment is due in July 2014, creating a deficit of $1.9 million in the first year. Thereafter, the deficit required to support the bonds does not exceed $1 million. The concern with the 2014 payment expressed above could likely be resolved by timing the issuance of the bonds and construction of the garages to coincide with sign revenue. Based on the $3,500 monthly freeway advertising rate, the City could support the construction of approximately 1,200 parking spaces without pledging other resources for debt service. Plans for the garages show a total of 1,875 spaces. Following is the forecasted revenue and debt service table. 23

24 Parking Garage Cash Flow Based on $3,500 Monthly Freeway Advertising Spot City Sign City Debt Revenue Service Surplus/(Deficit) 7/1/2012 $0 $0 $0 7/1/2013 $0 $0 $0 7/1/2014 $936,869 ($2,846,789) ($1,909,920) 7/1/2015 $1,873,738 ($2,779,291) ($905,554) 7/1/2016 $1,873,738 ($2,785,861) ($912,123) 7/1/2017 $1,873,738 ($2,781,316) ($907,578) 7/1/2018 $1,873,738 ($2,785,849) ($912,111) 7/1/2019 $1,873,738 ($2,779,268) ($905,530) 7/1/2020 $1,873,738 ($2,781,804) ($908,067) 7/1/2021 $1,873,738 ($2,800,039) ($926,302) 7/1/2022 $1,873,738 ($2,820,347) ($946,610) 7/1/2023 $1,873,738 ($2,830,292) ($956,554) 7/1/2024 $1,873,738 ($2,839,518) ($965,781) 7/1/2025 $1,873,738 ($2,843,054) ($969,317) 7/1/2026 $1,873,738 ($2,844,493) ($970,755) 7/1/2027 $1,873,738 ($2,847,787) ($974,049) 7/1/2028 $1,873,738 ($2,854,088) ($980,350) Total $27,169,195 ($42,219,795) ($15,050,600) Sources: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., TL Hocking & Associates 4.7 Analysis of Reduced Sign Revenues As noted previously, Osage West has reduced the expected lease rate for the freeway digital signs from $4,500 per month to $3,500 per month. From all information collected for this study, this lease rate appears more achievable on a long term and consistent basis. However, there is no point of reference for the pricing of the 14 foot by 48 foot sign to be located on 83 rd Avenue and the 19 smaller monument signs that will be place throughout the Sports Complex District. In order to test the sensitivity of the cash flow model to reduced revenue from these non-freeway signs, we have prepared an alternative set of revenue assumptions using lease rates at 75% and 50% of those expected by Osage West. This means that the 83 rd Avenue sign would lease for $750 per advertising spot at 75% of the expected lease rate and $500 per advertising spot at 50% of expected pricing. Lease rates for the 19 monument signs would decline from $300 per spot to $225 at 75% of expected pricing and $150 at 50%. The results of this analysis are shown on the following table. Ad sales decline by 4.5% to 9.0% compared to the expected lease rates for the non-freeway signs; operating cash flow declines by 5.7% to 11.4%. In terms of sign revenue that will accrue to the City, if sign lease rates are 75% of the expected rate, annual revenue to the City declines by $107,000. If lease rates average 50% of the expected pricing, revenue declines by $214,

25 Alternative Forecasted Cash Flow From Non-Freeway Signs Current 75% of Current 50% of Current Proposal Proposal Proposal 83rd Avenue Sign Lease Rate $1,000 $750 $ Monument Signs Lease Rate $300 $225 $150 Revenues Ad Sales $3,484,320 $3,327,240 $3,170,160 Percent Change -4.5% -9.0% Expenses Operating Costs $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 Sales Commission $348,432 $332,724 $317,016 Management Fee $174,216 $166,362 $158,508 Reserve $186,000 $186,000 $186,000 Total Expenses $1,142,148 $1,118,586 $1,095,024 Operating Cash Flow Before Splits $2,342,172 $2,208,654 $2,075,136 Percent Change -5.7% -11.4% Split City 80% $1,873,738 $1,766,923 $1,660,109 Developer 20% $468,434 $441,731 $415,027 Change in City Sign Revenue ($106,814) ($213,629) If non-freeway sign revenue does not meet expectations, the City would need to provide additional resources to support the debt service for the garages. If actual pricing only comes in at 75% of expected lease rates, another $107,000 would need to be committed from other accounts to support the bonds each year. Over the term of a 15-year bond, the City would need to supplement the bond payments from other sources by more than $1.5 million. In terms of the overall project, this is not a large amount of dollars, but it is something the City should consider in its negotiations with Osage West. The following chart demonstrates the payments that would need to be made if non-freeway sign lease rates are 75% of the expected rates. 25

26 Parking Garage Cash Flow Based on Reduced Non-Freeway Sign Revenue At 75% of Expected Lease Rates City Sign City Debt Revenue Service Surplus/(Deficit) 7/1/2012 $0 $0 $0 7/1/2013 $0 $0 $0 7/1/2014 $883,462 ($2,846,789) ($1,963,327) 7/1/2015 $1,766,923 ($2,779,291) ($1,012,368) 7/1/2016 $1,766,923 ($2,785,861) ($1,018,938) 7/1/2017 $1,766,923 ($2,781,316) ($1,014,393) 7/1/2018 $1,766,923 ($2,785,849) ($1,018,926) 7/1/2019 $1,766,923 ($2,779,268) ($1,012,344) 7/1/2020 $1,766,923 ($2,781,804) ($1,014,881) 7/1/2021 $1,766,923 ($2,800,039) ($1,033,116) 7/1/2022 $1,766,923 ($2,820,347) ($1,053,424) 7/1/2023 $1,766,923 ($2,830,292) ($1,063,369) 7/1/2024 $1,766,923 ($2,839,518) ($1,072,595) 7/1/2025 $1,766,923 ($2,843,054) ($1,076,131) 7/1/2026 $1,766,923 ($2,844,493) ($1,077,569) 7/1/2027 $1,766,923 ($2,847,787) ($1,080,863) 7/1/2028 $1,766,923 ($2,854,088) ($1,087,164) Total $25,620,386 ($42,219,795) ($16,599,409) Sources: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., TL Hocking & Associates 4.8 Conclusions on Osage West Pro Forma The proposal to support the cost of construction of the parking garages with digital billboard revenue is unique and we are not aware of any similar proposals in Arizona or other parts of the country. However, given the current state of the economy and municipal finance, we would expect that rating agencies would still require a pledge of secured revenue from other sources such as sales taxes. Such a pledge could affect the City s ability to finance other infrastructure or capital improvements even though the primary source of funding for the garages comes from the digital billboards. In their review, rating agencies typically consider coverage of debt service from matured revenue sources that have a track record and can be forecasted into the future. Billboard revenue is not something that offers the rating agencies a measure of comfort that the debt will be serviced. In addition, we have the following concerns or issues related to Osage West s assumptions for the billboard and parking garage proposal. Developer Fees: The latest cash flow statement from Osage West does not address the management and merchant build fees related to the construction of the garages. The proposed 12% merchant build fee plus the 4% management fee are not reasonable based on surveys conducted by this Company. While a developer fee of 3% to 4% may be justified, additional fees are not since a general contractor will be hired to construct the garage. Other than some cost sharing by the developer in the construction of the off-site 26

27 garage (20% of the cost), the City has sole responsibility and risk for the bond payments. There is no justification for large management fees by Osage West. Developer Sign Fees: Osage West, through LCO Outdoor Advertising, is proposing a 6% capital raise fee and a 12% merchant builder fee for the construction of the billboards. We question whether these are legitimate fees to be charged as part of the project and recommend that the City verify the necessity of the fees. Operating Costs: The estimates from Osage West do not include an adequate reserve fund for replacement of the signs over the long term. Funding for the replacement reserve suggested by this analysis is large at $186,000 per year. Placement of these funds in an interest bearing account could produce some additional revenue. However, if the City intends to continue to operate the billboards past 20 years, this reserve account needs to be funded. The reserve fund suggested by Osage West would only produce $694,000 in 20 years for an original investment that cost $3.7 million. Construction Cost of Garages: Excluding the fees proposed by Osage West, the expected construction cost for the parking garages is reasonable, 27

28 5.0 Conclusions & Recommendations It is the opinion of this firm that the proposed locations of digital billboards along the Loop 101 freeway in Peoria should be readily accepted by advertisers. It appears that municipal regulation and/or zoning has restricted many billboard locations along the Loop 101 and, as a result, demand should be available. Enhancing this underlying demand for billboards is the presence of major retailers and auto dealers located on Bell Road. We caution, however, that traffic volumes on the Loop 101 are lower than many other freeway locations and those higher volume locations currently command lower billboard lease rates than those originally proposed by Osage West. As more billboards are constructed along the Loop 101, lease rates will likely decline even if traffic volumes increase over time. Osage West has now submitted a revised pro forma based on a reduced lease rate for the freeway signs at $3,500 per advertising spot. In our opinion, this change reduces the risks associated with the billboard revenue and provides more assurance that adequate sign revenues for the City will be achieved over the long term. A conservative 15% vacancy rate has also been imposed in the cash flow model which provides additional certainty that the expected revenues can be achieved. While this firm generally endorses the $3,500 monthly advertising rate, we cannot guarantee that the revenue estimates outlined in this study will be achieved due to future changes in the economic environment, increased competition that may occur and the quality of management of the billboards by Osage West/LCO Outdoor Advertising. There is no point of reference or comparison for the pricing of the 14 foot by 48 foot sign to be located on 83 rd Avenue and the 19 smaller monument signs that will be place throughout the Sports Complex District. In particular, the number of monument signs may be excessive and could lead to lower lease rates. We have tested the sensitivity of the cash flow model to reduced revenue from these non-freeway signs and have found that revenue to the City could decline by 5.7% if sign lease rates are 75% of the expected rates or could decline even further by 11.4% if lease rates average 50% of the expected pricing. In the overall plan for the financing of the parking garages, these potential declines are not enough nullify the project. However, the City should take another look the number of signs proposed for the Sports Complex District, where the signs will be placed and the potential demand for advertising. The manner in which the City controls billboards through its zoning or sign code must also be considered. If the City ends its prohibition of billboards and other competing companies submit permits for billboards, lease rates could be affected. However, we believe the $3,500 advertising rate is reasonable and does not bear the risk associated with the previously-proposed $4,500 rate. The City needs to ensure it does not become the target of lawsuits from sign companies for denial of sign permits or if City regulations are so restrictive that competing companies cannot find locations for signs. We also suggest that the City investigate the issues described in the Conclusions to Section 4.0 related to: Excessive and unwarranted developer fees for construction of the parking garages, Unwarranted developer/merchant build fees related to installation of the billboards, and 28