How To Understand The History Of The Brazilian Amazon

Transcription

1 Conservation-development trade-offs and the challenge of translating conservation science into policy: some insights from the Brazilian Amazon Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford 10 th November 2011 Joice Ferreira Toby Gardner And the > 115 colleagues and students that really do all the work!

2 The global significance of the Brazilian Amazon 4.2 million km2 40% of the world s tropical rainforest

3 Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Cumuilative deforstation (km2) 800, , , , , , , , , , ,

4 The Arc of deforestation Desmatamento 2002/2003 Desmatamento até 2002 Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.

5 The Amazon today: Deforestation c. 20%, Human population c. 20 Million

6 Changing land-use in the Amazon: actors Public forest land Speculators and loggers Ranchers Colonists From Fearnside (2008) Capitalized farmers Squatters

7 Deforestation and wellbeing Rodrigues et al. (2009) Science

8 Forest degradation in Brazilian Amazonia: logging Asner et al. (2005) Science

9 Forest degradation in Brazilian Amazonia: fire Aragao and Shimabukuro (2010) Science Global Forest Watch

10 Amazonia under pressure: Rural development, poverty and international markets Higher Income per capita (2000) International markets $$$$$$ Lower

11 The fate of the Amazon Annual deforestation (km2) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

12 Policy measurements to contain deforestation Land uses in the Amazon Network of Amazonia protected areas covering 200 million hectares (40% of area) Federal campaign and imprisonment of illegal operators Campaign across municipalities with higher deforestation rates (including restrictions on farm credit) Market pressure on buyers of Amazon products

13 Challenges and opportunities facing the development of sustainable economies in the Amazon Land-use intensification Conservation value Conservation value Development value $ Development value

14 Projeto Amazônia Sustentavél Projeto Amazônia Sustentavél Project Coordination Team

15 Problem analysis Conceptual framework Solution analysis Research approach Measurement, modelling and mapping Trade-offs and landscape accounting Applied research questions and scenarios on landscape sustainability Research insights and policy levers Spatial and temporal variability in land values Inequalities in wellbeing and income Political and market expectations and uncertainties Strong social and socialecological interactions

16 Research approach Remote landscape assessment Characterisation of multiple-use landscape mosaics Assessment of current landscape sustainability

17 Study regions Santarém-Belterra Paragominas

18 Watersheds as sampling units

19 Nested sampling design Amazon basin Santarem region Watershed Rural property

20 Building partnerships with rural producers and institutions

21 Building partnerships with rural producers and institutions

22 Regaining trust!

23 Ecological assessment SANTAREM Land-use Total Undisturbed forest 18 Logged forest 28 Burnt forest 16 Logged and burnt forest 27 Secondary forest 31 Reforestation 5 Small-scale agric 4 Fruticulture 4 Pasture 25 Mechanised agric 15 Total no. Land-uses 10 Total number of actor types 17 Total no. transects 174

24 Ecological sampling: Biodiversity and ecosystem services

25 Assessing condition of stream networks

26 Socio-economic survey I. Property II. Household Demography and migration Wellbeing III. Production Production modules 1: Annual crops 2: Perrenial crops 3: Animals 4: Silviculture 5: Forest management IV. Forest reserves Size, legal status Forest use and extraction Costs: fire, theft and invasion V. Perspectives on future land-use change Santarem: 305 farms + 82 subsidiary households Paragominas: 149 farms + 52 subsidiary households

27 Some results so far..

28 Research approach: landscape assessment

29 Landscape history: time of deforestation (NDFI)

30 Landscape history: forest degradation

31 Landscape history: deforestation profile Ferraz et al. (2009) FEM Land-use Change Analysis Tool Old deforestation Recent deforestation

32 Research approach: ecological assessment

33 Land-use and biodiversity change Number of forest species st st st st st re re ric r ic on ag ore t fore t fore ore ore stati icultu stu d ag f f f r a y d e d P e e rut hold urn burn ndar for rbe ogge nis F B e u a t l o R l L c ch nd dis ma Se Me da S Un e gg Lo

34 Ecological condition Forest degradation and biodiversity change Gradient of human impact

35 Landscape-scale forest loss and biodiversity change Number of primary forest species Local condition % Primary forest in 10 km buffer Landscape condition 100

36 Biodiversity and carbon: Avoided deforestation, degradation and forest restoration Above ground carbon stocks Richness of forest specialist birds Basal area (m2 per ha) Number of forest species st st st st e re re ore ore for t fo t fo y df df r n n e e r r b g u da Bu og tur on db s L c i n d Se da Un ge g Lo st di Un d be r stu t es r fo Unpublished data, Projeto Amazonia Sustentavél, Santarém d ge g Lo t es r fo t t t es es es r r r fo t fo t fo ry rn rn a u u d B on db c n e a S ed g g Lo

37 Biodiversity and carbon: trade-offs at local scales Secondary forest Undisturbed and degraded forest Number of forest bird species Number of forest bird species Undisturbed forest Logged forest Burnt forest Logged and burnt forest Basal area (m2 Basal area (m2/ ha) / ha)

38 Integrative research priorities Field assessment Ecological systems Validation Remote landscape assessment Field assessment Characterisation of multiple-use landscape mosaics Validation Analysis Conservation values and dynamics Production systems Analysis Trade-offs Assessment of current landscape sustainability Trade-offs Socio-economic Socio economic values and dynamics Research insights and policy levers Analysis of institutional drivers and market context Applied sustainability research Policy and management engagement and dialogue

39 Identifying priorities for sustainability research: Extensive agriculture

40 Identifying priorities for sustainability research: Uncertainty in legal compliance: Forest Code 2 1 3

41 Identifying priorities for sustainability research: Political leadership: Municipio Verde

42 Ecological-economic zoning Environmental value Multipleuse landscapes Existing landscape Economic value Polasky et al. (2008) Biological Conservation

43 Final thought: The ultimate legacy of any project lies in its people and what they go on to do.

44 The PAS Team Alessandra Damasceno Jose Max Bob Hughes Julio Louzada Amanda Alves Coelho Karina Dias Carla Morsello Leandro Juen Bradley Davis Mariana Durigan Carla Ribas Lenise Vargas Flores Bruno Amaral Miriam Cristina Almeida Carlos Eduardo Cerri Leonardo Fleck Claudio Nor Cardoso dos Santos Rodrigo Anzolin Begotti Carlos Souza Junior Luiz Aragao Darley Leal Victor Hugo Fonseca Oliveira Cecilia Viana Luke Parry Ednaldo Augusto Pinheiro Nascimento Cecilia Gontijo Leal Danilo Igliori Marcia Maues Felipe Rossetti Danielle de Lima Braga Denis Cunha Mateus Batistella Gab Costa Erika Berenguer Diana Weinhold Neusa Hamada Jair da Costa Freitas Janaina Gomes de Brito Driss Ezzine de Blas Og Desouza Joao Carlos Lima de Oliveira Nargila Moura Ederson Jesus Paulo Pompeu Joelma Dezincourt Nicola Saverio Holanda Tancredi Edson Lopes Phil Kaufmann Karoline da Silva Gonçalves Patricia Carignano Torres Emilie Coudel Plínio Barbosa de Camargo Leon Viega Peter Richards Eustaquio Reis Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior Magno Reis Rachel Carmenta Fatima Moreira Ralph MacNally Manoel Cordeiro Rachel Garrett Fernando Vaz de Mello Regina Célia Viana Martins da Silva Mario Roberto Nogueira Colares Rafael Leitao Francisco de Assis Costa Renata Pardini Miguel Pastana do Nascimento Ricardo Solar Ima Vieira Ricardo Abramovay Nelson Rosa Rodrigo Fagundes Braga Jan Borner Richard Bardgett Thiago Moreira Cardoso Samia Nunes Jansen Zuanon Rob Ewers Abel da Silva Costa Sergio André Castelani Jim Thomson Roberto Araujo Amanda Cardoso Joaquim Guilhoto Ronald Zanetti Fatima Lopes Teotonio Soares Thiago Fonseca Morello Ramalho da Silva Joice Ferreira Sebastein Marchand Ruan Carlo Stulpen Veiga Túlio Franco Joice Santos Silvio Ferraz Valto coelho santana Junior Vivian Campos Jorge Nessimian Toby Gardner Williams Souza de Avila Adriano Venturieri Jos Barlow Troy Beldini Amanda Estefania de Melo Ferreira Alex Lees José Feres Antonita Santana da Silva Alexandre Aleixo José Henrique Cattanio Carla Daniele Furtado da Costa Alexandre Coutinho Joseph Tobias Christian Andretti Alvaro O Dantona Juliana Silveira

45 Thank you!