What if BAU would come true?

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1 What if BAU would come true? Scanning transport CO 2 emissions in the EU Petri Tapio & Jyrki Luukkanen Finland Futures Research Centre

2 The approach Introduction of general trends on EU15 level GDP Transport CO 2 emissions Historical CO 2 data by country Future extrapolations CO 2 by country Historical transport CO 2 intensity of the economy by country CO 2 /GDP Future extrapolation of intensity by country Comparison with USA and Japan history Discussion

3 CO 2 emissions by sector in EU CO 2 Emissions /1 6 tn 1 Electricity & Heat Production Transport 8 6 Household & Commerce Industry 4 Energy Branch Source of Data: Eurostat 2; 22

4 GDP, passenger traffic, freight and traffic CO 2 in EU15 in 197-2, scanning for 212 Source: Eurostat Real GDPmer, 35 passenger transport and freight transport/ 3 (index 197=1); 25 CO 2 emissions from transport/ 2 (index 1985=15) 15 GDP mer R 2 =,991 Passenger km CO2 from transport Freight (tnkm) GDPmer 1 5 CO 2 R 2 =,977 Freight R 2 =,954 Passenger km R 2 =,

5 Transport CO 2 emissions by country EU15 Big countries France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK Little central and southern countries Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Sweden

6 History : Big EU countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg Germany France UK Italy Spain Time/ Year

7 Future 212 big countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg Linear extrapolation - big EU countries R 2 =,9762 R 2 =,9912 R 2 =,971 R 2 =,9958 R 2 =,9446 Germany France UK Italy Spain

8 Future 212 big countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg Second order polynomial extrapolation - big EU countries R 2 =,984 R 2 =,984 R 2 =,9912 R 2 =,9959 Germany UK France Italy 1 R 2 =,975 Spain

9 History: Little central and southern countries ( ) Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 35 3 Transport CO 2 in the little central and southern EU countries Netherlands 25 Belgium 2 Greece 15 Aus tria Portugal 1 Ireland 5 Luxembourg Time/Year

10 Future 212 little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg Linear extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries R 2 =,9731 R 2 =,9822 R 2 =,9835 R 2 =,9795 R 2 =,9434 R 2 =,8785 Netherlands Belgium Greece Austria Portugal Ireland Luxembourg R 2 =,

11 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg Future 212 little central and southern countries Second order polynomial extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries 4 3 R 2 =,9731 R 2 =,9865 R 2 =,9885 Netherlands Belgium Greece 2 R 2 =,9839 R 2 =,9798 Austria Portugal 1 R 2 =,8923 R 2 =,9833 Ireland Luxembourg

12 History : Nordic countries Source IEA 3 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 2 Sweden Denmark Finland Time/ Year

13 Future 212 nordic countries Linear extrapolation - nordic EU countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 3 2 R 2 =,9543 R 2 =,985 Sweden Denmark Finland 1 R 2 =,

14 Future 212 nordic countries Second order polynomial extrapolation - nordic EU countries 3 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 2 1 R 2 =,9755 R 2 =,9832 R 2 =,9462 Sweden Finland Denmark

15 History : USA, Japan and EU15 Transport CO 2 in USA, EU15 and Japan in Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg USA EU15 Japan Time / Year

16 Future EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 in USA, EU15 and Japan in ; linear extrapolation for Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg R 2 =, USA 1 R 2 =,9916 EU15 5 R 2 =,9858 Japan

17 Future EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 in USA, EU15 and Japan in ; second order polynomial extrapolation for Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg R 2 =, USA R 2 =, EU15 5 R 2 =,9858 Japan

18 Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy Grouping as above CO 2 /GDP by country History Future 2-212

19 History : Big countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy big EU countries,2 Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1 Spain UK France Germany Italy, Time/ Year

20 Future 212 big countries,2 Transport CO 2 / Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and linear extrapolation for big EU countries GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1,5 R 2 =,5144 R 2 =,3884 R 2 =,8532 R 2 =,788 R 2 =,8714 Spain UK France Germany Italy

21 Future 212 big countries,2 Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15 Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and second order polynomial extrapolation for big EU countries R 2 =,7522 R 2 =,444 R 2 =,8535 Spain UK France,1,5 R 2 =,834 R 2 =,9142 Germany Italy

22 History : Little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy little central and southern EU countries,25 Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp,2 (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1,5 Luxembourg Greece Ireland Portugal Belgium Netherlands Austria Time/Year

23 Future 212 little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and linear extrapolation for little central and southern EU countries,25 Transport CO 2 / R 2 =,9352 Luxembourg GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),2 R 2 =,972 Greece,15,1,5 R 2 =,376 R 2 =,8452 R 2 =,7673 R 2 =,7449 R 2 =,123 Ireland Portugal Belgium Netherlands Austria

24 Future 212 little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and second order polynomial extrapolation for little central and southern EU countries,25 Transport CO 2 / R 2 =,947 Luxembourg GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),2 R 2 =,926 Greece,15,1 R 2 =,928 R 2 =,8125 R 2 =,165 Portugal Belgium Aus tria,5 R 2 =,8628 R 2 =,5666 Netherlands Ireland

25 History : Nordic countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy nordic EU countries Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),2,15,1 Sweden Finland Denmark, Time/ Year

26 Future 212 nordic countries Transport CO 2 / Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and linear extrapolation for nordic EU countries,2 GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15 R 2 =,3574 R 2 =,1638 Finland Sweden,1 R 2 =,1265 Denmark,

27 Future 212 nordic countries Transport CO 2 /,2 Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and second order polynomial extrapolation for nordic EU countries GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1 R 2 =,374 Sweden,5 R 2 =,664 R 2 =,651 Finland Denmark

28 Comparison of EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy History Future 2-212

29 History : EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),3,25,2,15,1 USA EU15 Japan, Time/ Year

30 Future EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and linear extrapolation for EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),3,25,2,15,1,5 R 2 =,7669 R 2 =,9171 R 2 =,338 USA EU15 Japan

31 Future EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ) Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy and linear extrapolation for EU15, USA and Japan,3,25,2,15,1 R 2 =,9173 R 2 =,356 EU15 Japan,5 R 2 =,865 USA

32 Discussion Substance Transport is an exceptional sector as the CO 2 intensity of the economy has not decreased The countries receiving a lot of EU structural funding have had high CO 2 growth rates USA has had decreasing transport CO 2 intensity figures but was still twice as high as EU15 in 1999 Methodology Extrapolation should be used very cautiously even in what if studies and even with BAU analyses

33

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