SANDERS GAINS ON CLINTON IN IOWA DEM CAUCUS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; DEMS SAY 4-1 CLINTON IS HONEST

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1 Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) FOR RELEASE: JULY 2, 2015 SANDERS GAINS ON CLINTON IN IOWA DEM CAUCUS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; DEMS SAY 4-1 CLINTON IS HONEST Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and now trails the front-runner percent among likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Vice President Joseph Biden has 7 percent. This compares to a percent Clinton lead over Sanders in a May 7 survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today s survey, former Maryland Gov. Martin O Malley has 3 percent with one percent for former U.S. Sen. James Webb of Virginia. Another 5 percent are undecided. Among Democrats 7 percent say they would definitely not support Biden, Webb or former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and 6 percent say they would not support Clinton. Secretary Hillary Clinton should not be biting her fingernails over her situation in the Iowa caucus, but her lead is slipping and Sen. Bernie Sanders is making progress against her. Her 52 percent score among likely caucus-goers is still OK, but this is the first time she has been below 60 percent in Quinnipiac University s Iowa survey, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. But Sen. Sanders has more than doubled his showing and at 33 percent he certainly can t be ignored, especially with seven months until the actual voting. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers are generally considered more liberal than primary voters in most other states, a demographic that helps his insurgency against Secretary Clinton who is the choice of virtually the entire Democratic establishment. -more-

2 Quinnipiac University Poll/July 2, 2015 page 2 The good news for Clinton in this survey is that despite problematic scores among the overall electorate regarding her honesty and ability to understand the needs of average folks, none of those negative ratings are showing up among her Democratic base, to which she remains an iconic figure, Brown added. By overwhelming margins, likely Democratic caucus-goers themselves consider her to be honest; believe she understands the problems of average folks, and is a strong leader. Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants who describe themselves as very liberal go 47 percent for Sanders and 43 percent for Clinton. Clinton is up percent among voters describing themselves as somewhat liberal, and percent among self-described moderate or conservative Democratic caucus-goers. Democratic caucus-goers give Clinton an percent favorability rating. Voters say percent she is honest and trustworthy, 95 4 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and percent that she cares about their needs and problems. Sanders gets a 66 8 percent favorability rating. Voters say 71 5 percent he is honest and trustworthy, percent he has strong leadership qualities and 72 7 percent that he cares about their needs and problems. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers say percent that if Clinton is elected she will follow new policies, rather than the same policies as President Barack Obama. Voters say percent that she d follow new policies, not the policies of former President Bill Clinton. From June 20 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 761 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit call (203) , or follow us on 2

3 3. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O Malley, Sanders, or Webb? Biden 7% 2% 6% 11% 8% 6% Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb DK/NA TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? Biden Chafee - - na Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb Warren na na 19 DK/NA A. (If candidate chosen q3) Who is your second choice: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O Malley, Sanders, or Webb? Biden 23% 15% 26% 27% 18% 26% Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb No first choice DK/NA

4 3B. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%) Q3 & Q3A COMBINED... Biden 30% 17% 33% 38% 26% 32% Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%) Biden Chafee 1 2 na Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb Warren na na Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) Biden 7% 9% 4% 7% 6% 8% Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb No/No one DK/NA

5 TREND: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) Biden Chafee 7 4 na Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb Warren na na 3 No/No-one DK/NA Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 80% 81% 85% 76% 82% 79% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 10% 10% 14% 9% 17% 6% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

6 TREND: Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 10 8 Unfavorable 8 3 Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 1 1 Jul 02 May Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 85% 88% 88% 82% 83% 87% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 24% 25% 26% 23% 30% 19% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

7 44. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 66% 82% 69% 49% 73% 60% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 18% 21% 19% 15% 23% 14% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED TREND: Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 75% 76% 77% 73% 75% 75% No DK/NA

8 TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes No DK/NA 7 7 Jul 02 May Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 71% 81% 76% 59% 81% 64% No DK/NA Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 95% 98% 96% 92% 92% 97% No DK/NA TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes No 4 6 DK/NA 1 1 Jul 02 May Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 62% 76% 65% 47% 68% 57% No DK/NA

9 50. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 83% 83% 83% 83% 81% 84% No DK/NA TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA 5 4 Jul 02 May Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 72% 83% 73% 63% 79% 67% No DK/NA Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for president: is it someone who is honest and trustworthy or is it someone who has strong leadership qualities or is it someone who cares about the needs and problems of people like you? Honest/Trustworthy 17% 17% 12% 20% 16% 18% Strong leadership Cares Needs/Problems DK/NA

10 60. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Barack Obama or come up with new policies? Same policies 28% 42% 25% 17% 35% 22% New policies DK/NA & 60A. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Barack Obama or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q60) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Q60 & Q60A COMBINED... Same policies/good 22% 32% 21% 15% 28% 18% Same policies/bad New policies/good New policies/bad DK/NA (Q60 or Q60A) If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Bill Clinton or come up with new policies? Same policies 20% 19% 21% 20% 29% 14% New policies DK/NA & 61A. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Bill Clinton or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q61) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Q61 & Q61A COMBINED... Same policies/good 15% 14% 15% 16% 21% 10% Same policies/bad New policies/good New policies/bad DK/NA (Q61 or Q61A)