What Really Wins Money

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1 October 2009 What Really Wins Money An independent review of tipsters and betting systems Welcome to October s WRWM. Has it really been a year since I began my one-a-day experiment? I was so much younger back then and did not have a spare tyre around my waist. Anyway, back to the onea-day. I ve learned a lot this year, the most important lesson is that one-a-day makes cash all of my new findings are inside. In response to readers s, there s a quick synopsis on trading, and a look at a profitable trading tipster. Do you fancy being the Derren Brown of football betting? Well, there s a neat little system which can help you land a nice priced, correct score bet. If you fancy things a little faster, then try out the speedrating system which looks to find the real speedball in a given horse race. The Patriarch has also fallen under Derren Brown s spell this month and introduces a new take on that bet we d all like to land the lottery! Martin Blakey continues to spill the beans on cracking those handicap races, and there s a couple of interesting new systems with promise, one produced two winners at 14/1 and 25/1 in September! Regards, Clive IN THIS ISSUE: Football: With This Simple System You Can Predict (and Profit From) Which Way a Football Match Is Likely To Go...4 Selection Strategy: An Easy Way I Know To Select The Fastest Horse In Any Race...5 Expert Strategy: Martin Blakey: How To Spot And Profit From Trainers Fixing Handicap Races...6 Trading Made Simple: How to Use Betfair to Sell Your Bet for a Guaranteed Profit...8 Review: ukhorseracing.tv: This Horse Trading Tipping Service Really Works But Beware The Drawbacks...10 The Patriarch Presents: How to have fun with the National lottery and a little known Handicap strategy that really works!...11 SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE...12 One A Day Compounding Experiment How I Turned 100 Into 5,579 Placing One Low-Risk Bet Per Day - And How You Could Do The Same... It began with an idea in November 2008 looking for a high strike rate selection strategy. Importantly, the system would have to be very easy to use, very practical (you can place your bets and go), and likely to make a sustained profit over time. One year has passed now, and I have learned a lot which I would like to share with you. The original betting idea was to find a betting strategy which would accommodate the idea of compounding. To recap, by looking to make 2% of your bank (e.g. 100), and doing this day in and day out, you will be looking at a handsome reward over time, because Einstein s eighth wonder of the world compounding would take over. A simple example of compounding can be seen below: DAY 1 Betting bank of 100. We are looking to make a target profit of 2% of our betting bank every day. Target profit is made. The new betting bank is now 102 (which is 100 plus our 2% target profit which equals 2). Moving on to DAY 2, and we have a new betting bank of 102. Today we are still looking to make 2% of our betting bank. With our new betting bank at 102, the new target profit today is Our target profit for day 2 is met, and our new betting bank becomes And so it continues. As our betting bank grows, so our target profit per day will grow. This is the essence of compounding. As the year progressed, the compounding element worked, but was problematic when a one-a-day bet please turn over

2 lost. The reason? In order to sustain a high strike rate, inevitably the odds will be short. So I investigated other staking plans which could be fitted into one-a-day betting and these proved to be very profitable, while at the same time keeping stakes small in proportion to the betting bank. I will be passing on my findings later, but firstly here are some lessons learned after being in the trenches, following this one bet a day philosophy day in and day out for a whole year. How One-A-Day Works For those new to one-a-day betting, here is a brief synopsis. The idea is simplicity itself. What we are looking to achieve here is to find just one bet a day amongst all of the betting opportunities that are available to us. Yes just one bet a day! That could be football, tennis, greyhounds, horse racing, or any other sporting event. However, I came to the conclusion that the best place to look for solid bets consistently is in the placeonly horse racing markets. Why place-only horse racing? It is far easier to pick a horse to finish in the first three places than it is to pick a horse to win only. The place-only market is available via the Tote, at bookmakers such as Paddy Power and Bet365 and at Betfair. Betfair is my preferred option as the prices are far more competitive. Further, there are many opportunities each given day for place-only betting, where in other markets, there may be no betting opportunities. One-A-Day improvements By focusing on just one betting style means that I have picked up a number of tips and tricks which increase the strike rate and keep the profits rolling in. 1. Place-only betting in the horse racing market. Betfair can offer superb betting opportunities when there are non runners. Let s look at a typical eight runner horse race. In the place-only market, you will win if your selection has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. If there are any horses who are withdrawn from that eight runner race, reducing the field to seven or six, the bookmakers will react in the place-only market and only pay out for 1st and 2nd place. BUT Betfair will still pay out on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place. Imagine we have an eight runner race. Two horses are withdrawn. The field is now six runners, so if we bet on the place only market with Betfair, we are encountering a race where any selection we make only has to beat three horses to place. This increases the probability of making a profit. 2 Let the market do the work for you. Do not dismiss short-priced favourites. They are short prices for a reason. The market has done the work for you in highlighting these apparent sure things. I say apparent because it is our job to see if we can find any justification for such short prices. A key factor to the success of one-a-day betting is the focus on short prices. Surely it is easier for a 1/5 shot to win than it is to pick a 5/1 winner every day. A 95% strike rate for the one-a-day selections ensures that you will profit despite the short prices so make the bookmaker your friend in this instance. Here is a very recent example: 440 CHELTENHAM BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Barizan, 5/1 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Riptide, 12/1 Royal Max. DIOMED VERDICT: If running his race then BARIZAN should continue on his merry way. This is the Betting Forecast which you will see at the base of a race card with the Racing Post. Barizan is priced at 2/5. The next best horse is priced at 5/1. The Betting Forecast is showing that there is a gulf in class between the favourite and the rest of the field. Because there are only four runners, Betfair pays out on only the first two places. Barizan is priced at 1.11 to place. This means that, in order for us to profit, Barizan has to finish 1st or 2nd out of four runners. Barizan won the race so the place-only bet was successful. The market had highlighted this strong favourite for us may not be much of a price, but imagine 365 of those winning over a year! Football betting The bookmakers can also point us towards football 2

3 teams who have an outstanding chance of winning their matches. As a matter of habit now, I visit every day, and by clicking on football, take note of all football teams priced at 1 /2 or lower. Ladbrokes (who are accurate with their football odds) have highlighted these apparent sure things to us, and now it is our job to justify backing at such short odds. and are two websites which are superb in showing you football teams recent performances, their opponents performances, head to heads and much much more. With this information, a short-priced selection highlighted to us by the bookmakers can be justified as a bet, and become a one-a-day bet. These are the main tricks I have picked up over the year. I have also learned, through investigating a number of staking plans, that there are better ways than compounding which really can maximise profits over a year without putting a lot of money at risk. Money management lessons learned There are 3 staking plans I would like to present to you which have produced exceptional profits since November 2008 (exceptional profits given that the odds we are focusing on daily are very short). Level stakes This staking plan involves betting a set amount every day. I include it as there are no calculations of stakes. Everything is clear. Make your one-a-day bet, and place the stake you have chosen on the selection. Betting a fixed stake of 100 on one chosen bet a day since November 2008 up to October 2009 has produced a profit of 4,091. POSITIVES The stake is set so once you have selected your bet, you can bet and go. NEGATIVES Betting to a fixed stake will not maximize profits as your betting bank grows. Kelly Staking Plan I just had to include her, didn t I! And for good reason. I put the 304 bets I have generated since November 2008 into the Staking Machine (found at The most profitable staking plan was the Kelly Staking Plan. Starting with a betting bank of 1,000, using an expected win percentage of 94 (my actual win percentage is 95%) and a divisor of two, the betting bank as at 17th October 2009 stands at 12,582. The largest stake was 439 and the average stake was 274. With a 95% strike rate, I personally see no problems with that kind of outlay in proportion to betting bank. I cannot explain how Kelly Staking Plan calculations are made I have just left it to the Staking Machine to tell me my new stake. If you were to follow the one-a-day betting, then I would advise a purchase of the Staking Machine as a way to maximize the profits if this Kelly Staking Plan interests you. Percentage of betting bank Starting with a 100 betting bank, and a first stake of 10, the betting bank now stands at 5,579 This is betting 10% of your betting bank every day there is a bet. Hence the 10 starting stake. This staking plan encapsulates the power of compounding. Starting small, then letting the stakes increase only as your betting bank increases. This is the staking plan that will appeal to most people because the very first stake is just 10. It will seem as if you are going nowhere in the initial stages because returns are so low, but stakes will rise and profits will rise, and the snowball effect of compounding will take over. So where to from here? I hope I have convinced you that there is a profit to be made from very short-priced bets despite the conventional wisdom telling you otherwise. The key to success is in the approach you take. Blanket backing of all short odds selections will simply not work. BUT if we become ultra selective, and on each given day search out that ONE selection that has the greatest chance of success, be it from a horse racing place-only perspective, or from doing a little research after the bookmakers have highlighted for you a football team most likely to win, then you will profit well a year from now. For those with limited resources who want to make this one-a-day system work, the best way is by betting 10% of a starting bank of 100. Your first bet will only be 10 but after nearly a year, you have seen how the please turn over 3

4 betting bank has become 5,000+. The high strike rate married with the short odds ensures a steady long-term growth. I have included two other staking plans, one of which will ideally require an investment in staking software such as that found at I refer to the Kelly Staking Plan in this instance, and the investment in the staking software should be adequately compensated by future profits. I have kept a diary of this experiment and urge anybody interested to look through previous days and months and see how I have approached making one-aday selections. The diary can be found at and will teach you a lot. Now is an ideal time to try this out for yourself. I managed a 95% strike rate over the year and fully intend replicating this for a new 12 month cycle hopefully, with a little help from Kelly, who knows? Fancy turning 100 into 5,000+ in the next 12 months? Soon to launch! I ve been publishing my One-A- Day tips on my blog for the last year for free. I wanted to prove beyond any doubt that slow and steady really can win the race. Bolstered by the long term success (and encouragement from followers) I have now decided to continue publishing my One-A-Day selections to those who are interested. So, very soon, I will be launching a full membersonly service. If you want to guarantee a place, then please got to and sign up. I ll send you full details as soon as we launch. Football With This Simple System You Can Predict (and Profit From) Which Way a Football Match Is Likely To Go With this simple system, you can now predict how a future football match is most likely to go. And if you are able to accurately predict how a football match is likely to go, then there are a whole wealth of betting opportunities which open themselves up to you. In this article, I will show you the strategy which can be used to make good correct score bets, and the correct score market is an ideal one to focus on because in some instances the lowest price in this betting category can be as high as 6/1. Follow this step-by-step guide: 1) Make a short list of teams who tend to dominate their leagues. Here is a list of likely candidates. Celtic and Rangers in the Scottish Premier League. Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and now Manchester City in the Premier League. Barcelona and Real Madrid in the Spanish League. Panathanaikos and Olympiakos in Greece. Fenerbahce and Galatasaray in Turkey. 2) If we use the example of Rangers and Celtic it is quite clear that they are the dominant forces in the Scottish Premier League and are closely matched in ability. This is the key. Being so closely matched we can gauge how one team is likely to perform against an opponent that the other has played against recently. Take a look at the 17th October 2009 fixture list. Celtic is playing Motherwell. What we do for Step 2 is to look at the most recent match between Rangers and Motherwell. What will this achieve? If our contention that Celtic and Rangers are closely matched in ability, then their respective past results can act as a mirror to how the other side is likely to perform. On 12th September Motherwell drew 0-0 with Rangers. What can we assume from this scoreline? Motherwell, against the top two sides this season, may put out an ultra defensive team in order to try not to concede and nick a point. What betting opportunities might this open when Celtic faces Motherwell? A backing of 0-0 correct score may be an option. A backing of under 2.5 goals, and more speculatively, under 1.5 goals may have value. For those football traders out there, as long as the match is in-running, these bets can also be traded. The actual result when Celtic played Motherwell was 0-0. It mirrored the result achieved by Rangers. 4

5 How about Hearts? They played Rangers on 23rd August 2009 and the score was 2-1 to Rangers. Celtic played Hearts on 20th September and the score was 2-1 to Celtic. How would Rangers scoreline in the earlier game suggest to you approach Hearts when Celtic played them? Firstly, Hearts had the ability to score against Rangers, so watch out for that in the Celtic game. Secondly, 3 goals were scored indicating the potential of an over 2.5 goals bet. Thirdly, a correct score bet of 2-1 when Celtic played Hearts may be worthy of speculation. This system becomes even more accurate if we look at home scorelines and away scorelines. In the example above, Rangers played Hearts at home. We will then be waiting for when Celtic play Hearts at home. With Hearts playing away from home, they might approach the game differently. Why might this be an accurate method of working out future scorelines and goals? It all lies in the fact that there is domination of a handful of teams in one league. The Premiership is an ideal example. Teams line up differently against the Big four teams of Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea than they might against others. Look at newly promoted sides too This little strategy is not just effective for dominant teams, it is also worth applying to teams at the bottom of leagues. As an example, I will tend to lump the newly promoted sides together, such as Wolves, Burnley and Birmingham City. These teams should struggle, but there might be a pattern to their play which we can apply to future matches. For example, Burnley specifically AWAY from home have lost to teams in the top half of the table. The top four teams who have played Burnley have won 3-0 and 4-0 when Burnley plays at their grounds. These teams were Chelsea and Liverpool. So expectation when Burnley play against Arsenal at the Emirates or Man Utd at Old Trafford is for a 3+ goal victory by the home side and also for Burnley to NOT score. Bottom line Do get to know It is such a wonderful resource (and it s free!) and the above strategies, when used in tandem with this resource site, can help you get an accurate idea of how a future match is likely to progress as far as the correct score and amount of goals scored is concerned. Have fun with the above strategy and see if you can correctly predict future correct scores, to become the Mystic Meg of Football! Selection Strategy An Easy Way I Know To Select The Fastest Horse In Any Race Here s s quick system you can use to find out instantly the fastest horse in a given race. The information can be found by using the TopSpeed ratings in the Racing Post. Follow theses steps: 1) Look at the Topspeed ratings for all races. These can be found in the Racing Post newspaper as part of the Postdata / Topspeed table. Online at click on Cards. 2) Choose the first race and then click on TS this will sort out the race by Topspeed. 3) If the top rated horse is clear of the second rated by 20 points or more, then it becomes a qualifier. 4) It would be wise to avoid soft and heavy ground. I told you it was quick. The logic behind this little system is that we have identified the horse that is clear of the rest of the field by the Racing Post s Speed Ratings. In an ideally run race without much buffeting, or traffic problems, then that horse has an outstanding chance of success if consenting to put his best foot forward. Here s an example just to make the above steps a little clearer: 30/09/ Newcastle Looking at the Latest Topspeed Ratings for this race in the Racing Post, Capable Guest is showing a rating of 81 (We know this is the highest topspeed rating because it is in bold). The next step is to find the next highest rating. This was 58 for a horse called Zefooha. The difference please turn over 5

6 between Capable Guest s rating of 80 and Zefooha s rating of 58 is 22. This fits in ideally with the system. Capable Guest wins at 11/2. It must be said there are no selections every day but selections are worth waiting for. This system is very easy to use. It can also be applied if you are looking at sprint distances over the flat in particular. If you notice a horse in a sprint race, with a good draw, and who is clear in the Topspeed ratings, then this could highlight a worthwhile bet. Bottom line It is very easy to check through Topspeed Ratings both online and offline using this little strategy and I will be following any selections with interest. There wont be selections every day, but when one appears then we can be assured that the horse who has met our criteria will, by default, be the fastest horse in the race, and as long as he or she gets a decent chance of a clear run, then the horse s chance of winning is increased. Expert Strategy : Martin Blakey How To Spot And Profit From Trainers Fixing Handicap Races This month I want to pass on to you a very effective strategy for highlighting well handicapped horses. This strategy works equally as well on the Flat, allweather and National Hunt. This particular method focuses on horses that finished 4th or 5th last time out, and as a result were dropped in the handicap, which obviously gives them a greater chance of winning when the time is right. You may wonder why 4th or 5th placing last time out is important, but I can assure you this is a route that many trainers go down prior to setting a horse up to win. The reason for this is that on the majority of occasions, if a horse finishes outside the first three, it will get dropped in the weights by the handicapper, usually between 1lb and 3lb. You also need to know that the horse is good enough to win a particular race, and many times you will see a horse running on strongly at the end of a race into 4th or 5th indicating that the horse is ready to strike when conditions are right. The obvious question to ask is why not let a horse finish nearer last than first so it will get dropped even further in the weights? But it is not as simple as that. Running a horse down the field is very difficult if the horse is in good form. But allowing it to run on well into 4th or 5th can be easily achieved, and this is also a good indication to the trainer that the horse is well and capable of winning, especially if it gets dropped in the weights which is the purpose of this exercise. Strategy Rules 1 Target all 3yo+ and 4yo and above handicaps but ignore all 3yo only handicaps. I do allow a 3yo to run in a 3yo+ race, but 3yo only races are very unpredictable as often there is not enough solid form to go on. If a trainer is prepared to run a 3yo against older horses then I allow this and take it that this horse is considered good enough to do itself justice. 2 Highlight all horses that finished 4th or 5th last time out. 3 Check the horse s current handicap mark, and then check to see what handicap mark it ran off last time, and if it has dropped in the weights (Must have dropped at least 1lb). 4 Any qualifier must have proved it is capable of winning over today s distance. 5 Any qualifier aged 5 or above must have proved it can win off its current mark. This means its current handicap mark must be equal to or lower than its last winning handicap mark. Horses aged 3 and 4 get a 6lb allowance, this means its current mark can be up to 6lbs above its last winning mark. I do this because young horses still have plenty of improvement in them and are well capable of defying a mark up to 6lbs above their last winning rating. 6 To qualify as a bet, a horse must meet with all the above criteria but MUST also be supported in the betting market as this is a strong indication that the horse is expected to run a big race. For example, opening price 8-1 and backed into 5-1. Below are a couple of examples showing how to identify these horses using the form as seen in the Racing Post or on the Racing Post website. Example one Sunday 11 October. LINGFIELD yo+ Handicap. 7f 14 declared 6

7 Kyllachy Star y-o 1m5f 12 declared. Bell Island. 9-5 R A Fahey Paul Hannagan. 5-y-o OR /09 Sand 7f Cls3 Lady Herries. OR67 Seb Sanders. 80 5/09 York 7f Cls3 19 Sept Ayr 7f 10 ran. Good 1. Harrison George Osteopathic Remedy Prime Exhibit. 2-1 fav. 5.KYLLACHY STAR. Took keen hold in rear, effort on outer over 2f out, stayed on final furlong, never troubled leaders. [RPR91 TS65 OR89] RESULT: Won 15-2 from 9-1. Step-By-Step Guide Using the above example, I will guide you through exactly what you need to look for to identify a qualifier using the above strategy. Starting at the top, I have underlined all the important points. 3-y-o+ Handicap: This shows that it is a 3-y-o+ race. 7f: This shows the race is over 7 furlongs. 3-y-o: This shows that Kyllachy Star is a 3-y-o so gets the 6lb allowance. OR88: This shows that Kyllachy Star is running off a handicap mark of 88 so is 4lb above his last winning mark but gets the 6lb allowance which in effect means he is running off /09 Sand 7f: This shows Kyllachy Star has won previously off a handicap mark of 84 over 7 furlongs. 5.Kyllachy Star: This shows Kyllachy Star was 5th last time out. OR89: This shows that Kyllachy Star ran off a mark of 89 last time out so has dropped 1lb for today s race to a mark of 88. Take off the 6lb allowance for a 3-y-o and this takes his Mark to 82 which is 2lb below his last winning mark and therefore makes him a qualifier. Kyllachy Star won at 15-2 having been backed in from 9-1 so it also qualified on the betting rule. Example two Sunday 11th October. Lingfield y-o+ Handicap /09 Ling 1m5f 69 2/09 Ling 1m5f 8 Sept Goodwood 1m3f 9 ran. GD-FM 1. Soundbyte Sand Repeal Sinbad The Sailor BELL ISLAND. 5-2 fav. Tracked leaders, ridden 3 out, not quicken over 2f out, held after, one pace final furlong. [RPR70 TS47 OR69] RESULT: Won 5-1 from Looking at the above example, you can see that Bell Island met with all the criteria we are looking for. He was running off a mark 6lb lower than for his last win and had dropped to 2lb to a mark of 67 (from 69). He had also won over the distance and was supported on course into 5-1 from Editor s Note Martin has relayed above how to use this system with the Racing Post newspaper, but the system can also be worked online, by using You can also use but will have to pay for the membership in order to access the information required. Here is a brief synopsis of those parts of which will help you in using this handicap system. 1) At click on the link to Racing 2) At the racing page, click on Racecards. Here you will find a list of all of the day s races and can view the handicap races and the ages of the horses in those handicap races in order to find qualifying races. 3) Once you have found a horse in a qualifying race who is worthy of further investigation under the system rules, simply click on his name and you will be taken to the horse s profile page. (NOTE in the form section of the profile page, the official rating please turn over

8 (OR), or current handicap mark as it is also referred to, is to be found under the column BHA. This is a fairly straightforward strategy that throws up a tremendous amount of winners and is very easy to follow once you get the hang of it. My personal handicap ratings are based on years of experience and knowledge which I know puts them head and shoulders above any other available ratings which all tend to follow the same predictable form route. I am looking for the first time to make my ratings available on a daily basis, and I should be in a position to do this at some stage in November. STOP PRESS! Martin Blakey is about to share his handicap expertise in his all-new Handicap Gold advisory service. It is due for launch in November and you can make sure you are the first to hear about it by signing up to his free alert list. Just go to the following website and register Trading Made Simple How to Use Betfair to Sell Your Bet for a Guaranteed Profit Ireceived a number of s asking me to explain, in simple terms, what exactly trading involves. Trading is the ability to sell your bet off when you are in a winning position. Imagine you have backed a football team, and it scores first. At that moment, your bet is winning, regardless of the fact that the football match may only be a few minutes old, or the first half has not even ended yet. So by trading you can get out while in a winning position, safe in the knowledge that you are not reliant on the football team you have backed going on to win after the 90 minutes is up. The same goes for horse racing. As long as the race allows in-running betting you have the opportunity to trade out for a profit. Imagine this time that you have backed a horse to win at odds of 5/1. The race goes off. Your 5/1 shot has started running very well, and its inrunning price reduces to 2/1. You now have the same opportunity as you did in the football match. You can sell back your bet via Betfair. The horse does not even need to win the race for you to profit. So how can you sell off a bet while you are in a winning position? You use a bet exchange like Betfair. Obviously if you were using traditional bookmakers, this would be impossible. The bookies will take your bet and if you win they pay out. Using a bet exchange is a bit like spread betting shares What do you do when your share is rising in price? Do you stay with the share in the hope that it will continue to rise? I hope not because, after all, we cannot predict the future. You would, I hope, get out of your position, and bank the profit by selling the share back and pocketing the difference between the price you bought the share and the price you sold the share at. And that s exactly what you are doing with sports trading. You back the team/horse/tennis player and lay off at a lower price to secure our profit. Betfair, the world s leading betting exchange, gives you this opportunity to effectively sell off a winning bet and profit. It also gives you the ability to lay (to oppose an event in direct contrast to backing) Here is a football trading example: Let s say I back Celtic at odds of 1.95 for 500. Within a few minutes Celtic score. As a direct consequence the market changes the odds to reflect that Celtic is more likely to win. The price available in the market for Celtic is 1.56 to back and 1.58 to lay. Contrast this with the price at which I backed Celtic. The odds have fallen and here is our window of opportunity as a trader to profit. When you back a selection and you have trading in mind, the only way you will profit is if the odds reduce. You then LAY the same selection to guarantee a profit. In our example, the odds have fallen from 1.95 to So always remember: back at higher odds and lay at the lower odds. Let s take a look at that Celtic match. The difference between the price I backed Celtic and the 8

9 price they are now after scoring a goal, puts me in a winning position. do not know what the 90 minute result is going to be with 100% certainty. So how do I claim my profit? I lay Celtic at 1.58 for the stake at which I backed Celtic (in this case 500). What does this achieve? Most importantly, laying Celtic as soon as their price is lower than when you backed them allows you to get your stake back and guarantee you cannot lose. However you can profit from ALL outcomes if you want! In the screenshot below, you will see a figure of which is the green up figure. The term green up is used to describe a situation where a successful trade can allow the sports trader to profit on ALL outcomes in a single event. In this example, by greening up you will profit if Celtic win, if Dundee United win, or even if it is a draw! Imagine that you have a bet where you cannot lose and there is no money at risk! Well this is it. I am using software here which calculates my profit on all outcomes for me. The software I am using in this instance is Fairbot from at only $99 for a year, it represents superb value for money and makes sports trading on Betfair extremely easy. There is no need to buy Fairbot to be a successful trader. If you visit you can download their Bet Angel BASIC software for free. This software has an in-built facility to green up for you. How you can spread the profit yourself To recap, we have backed Celtic at 1.95 for 500. Celtic have scored. Their odds reduce to 1.56 to back and 1.58 to lay. At this stage we can sell our bet, get our stake back and also profit! Remember that we would lay Celtic at odds of 1.58 for our stake of 500. This will produce a profit if Celtic wins. If Dundee United wins or there is a draw at fulltime, we win nothing, BUT we lose nothing. Why not ensure we profit regardless. After all, we When Celtic s odds reduce to 1.58 and we lay Celtic now for our stake of 500, simply add the profit you want on Dundee United or the draw. For example, if you wanted a profit of 60 on Dundee United and the draw (just in case Celtic do not win), then you would lay Celtic at odds of 1.58 for 560. So the simple rule is to add the profit you would like to see on other outcomes to your original stake. Let s say that we have backed Fulham at odds of 1.73 for a stake of 100. Fulham score first (this is a hypothetical example by the way). Fulham s odds reduce to 1.33 after they have scored. What can we do now? Remember? We lay Fulham at the lower odds for our stake of 100 in order to sell the bet and bank the profit. BUT I want to spread profit so that I not only cover Fulham, but also Hull and the draw so I can sit back and relax. The profit I want is 30 which I have added to the 100 stake I have laid Fulham at when their price reduced. Bottom line This is a basic introduction to trading, which is an excellent method of selling your bet while it is running, before an event has ended and either leaving a risk-free bet on your chosen team or horse, or spreading the profit on all outcomes (known as greening up). Now all you need is for your football team to be winning at one stage during a football match, or your horse to be running very well. With trading you can sell your bet and profit instantly without waiting for the final whistle. The best market to practise trading is the football market, as there are only three outcomes (the home win, the away win, and the draw). You can practise by following an in-running football match and seeing how the odds fluctuate after please turn over 9

10 a significant event (usually a goal is scored or one team has had a player sent off). Choose a team you think will win the match. Watch what happens to their odds if they are winning at any stage during the match. Using you can paper trade place a stake amount (as I did in the Fulham v Hull game which I used as an example) and practice the following: 1) Once their odds reduce, sell your bet by laying at lower odds with the stake at which you backed the team. 2) Try to green up profit by ensuring you will win on all outcomes. DO not press submit or confirm your bets, so you can play about with your lay stakes and practise trading and greening up. This is a superb method of guaranteeing you will profit on a given event if your chosen bet is winning at any time during the event. You can ensure your stake is returned (very reassuring) and guarantee a risk-free profit. You can even guarantee that whatever happens, you WILL profit. Review: ukhorseracing.tv This Horse Trading Tipping Service Really Works But Beware The Drawbacks Ihave been trialling a horse racing betting service for some time, and it has been consistently profiting during my trial period. The service is available at but this is a horse racing tipping service with a twist. The focus is firmly on trading rather than traditional backing to win or each-way tips. Before I get started, it is important to note that this is a service which will, ideally, require you to follow the betting markets on Betfair. I say ideally because there is a betting bot which can place your bets for you automatically, and although you will not need to be at your computer, you will need to leave your computer running with the betting bot and software. So what s involved? The ukhorseracing.tv tipping service provides you with an Excel spreadsheet to download daily which contains the selections for that day. There are normally two to three selections in a given race. The Excel spreadsheet works in tandem with Gruss software, found at in order to automate the betting and trading process of the service. Gruss software is designed to run specifically with Betfair and is superb value at 6 per month. After downloading the Excel spreadsheet and setting up the Gruss software you will then be in a position to automate the whole betting process. The man behind the tipping service, Sid, places great emphasis on trading as being the ideal way of profiting consistently. There is an option to back the selections with small level stakes and on some days there have been huge priced winners. One day recently saw a winner at odds of 30 within the first two races. Other days have seen quite exceptional performances with consistent winners throughout the day. Yes, good days if you were backing selections to level stakes, but again the emphasis is on small and consistent profits by backing pre race and hoping the horse runs well in the in-running market (its price will shorten then and you can lock in profit). There are a couple of negatives about the service Firstly, the cost: 130 per month is quite an amount to pay for any sort of tipping service, and so it follows that if you are TRADING, as advised, profits will be smaller than if you backed in the conventional manner. Will the profits cover the cost of the service? And how much will you have to be staking to firstly cover the cost of the service, and then, move on into profit? The second niggle comes with the automated aspect of the service. Personally, I found it difficult to sort out the settings in order to ensure that trading profits were reasonable when the horses prices shortened as they ran well. In this regard then, trading manually is my preferred option. Another concern any trading tipping service puts the vendor at an immediate advantage over those receiving the tips. Why? Well before he releases his selections to subscribers, he can back them all, knowing that the subscribers will all be backing the 10

11 same horses and this will inevitably push the price down. He can trade out on the back of this sudden weight of money from subscribers. The last worry is a practical one. How do we know when it s the right time to trade out of a horse? How can we gauge when a horse has reached its lowest price in running without going on to win the race? These negatives aside, there is no getting away from the fact, that in a large proportion of cases, the horses listed in the Excel spreadsheet did shorten, and even go on to win. There is plenty of support for members regarding trading and full instructions for setting up the automation process. Bottom line There is an option to pay 5 per day which is the way I would approach this service. Far better this, than committing to 130 and a full month only to find that this is not suitable for you. If you have the ability to follow the betting live, are already au fait with horse racing trading, and want a chance to profit small but consistently, then for 5 per day, you should make enough to cover the small daily fee. Do take note of my concerns. There has been a consistency to the quality of selections made during my trial which augurs well for the future. The Patriarch Presents: How to have fun with the National lottery and a little known Handicap strategy that really works! Now that Derren Brown has brought the National Lottery back into the limelight with his amazing programmes, I thought I would start this month with a bit of fun betting on it, always remembering that it is one of the worst bets in the world with odds of almost 14 million to 1 against you winning it. But at least we can console ourselves with the knowledge that part of our losing stake is going to good causes. And my approach to winning is going to be magic too, but not quite in the Derren Brown style. I m going to start with the 49 lottery numbers set out in a square, as follows: Now this is not any old square, I ll have you know. This is a truly magic square, sure as my name is Derren. Take a closer look at the seven rows, the seven columns and the two diagonals. Get out your calculator and add up the numbers in each row, column and diagonal. Isn t that amazing? Yes, they all add up to 175 a truly magic square. Now, how do we make use of this? Here are some suggestions. Take any line of numbers that you fancy (you have 16 to choose from seven rows, seven columns and two diagonals) and drop one figure, your least favourite. You are left with six numbers to enter. Another idea. Since 175 is the magical total you might like to include 1 or 7 or 5 or 17 and 5. But best of all, I have two plans for you involving 14 numbers, that is any two lines of your choice as long as they are not intersecting which would reduce the number to 13. With your 14 chosen numbers write them out as follows. A = your first number, B = your 2nd, C = your 3rd, D = your 4th, E = your 5th, F = your 6th, G = your 7th, H = your 8th, I = your 9th, J = your 10th, K = your 11th, L = your 12th, M = your 13th and N = your 14th. And here s where more magic comes in. The first plan has only five lines to enter and yet there is quite an amazing guarantee. If you have five of the drawn numbers among your 14 numbers, then you are guaranteed to be a winner of a prize. Here are the five lines to enter on your lottery ticket. 1. A F G H I J 2. A F I J M N 3. A F G H M N 4. B C D E K L 5. G H I J M N The second plan costs more at 14 with 14 lines, and perhaps could be used for a small syndicate. This time the guarantee is that if you have the six drawn numbers among your 14 selections then you are guaranteed a line with at least four correct. As before, match your numbers to the letters A to N and then enter these 14 lines. please turn over 11

12 1. A B C D E F 2. A B G H I J 3. A C D G K L 4. A C F H J M 5. A E G H K N 6. A F I L M N 7. B C E G I M 8. B D J K M N 9. B E F H K L 10. B F G J L N 11. C D H I L N 12. C E I J K N 13. D E H J L M 14. D F G I K M I just hope that a little bit of magic rubs off on your entry. And finally in this lottery piece, how about that news item I saw some weeks ago relating to the National Lottery of Bulgaria. The exact same six numbers came up in two successive draws now that is truly weirdly magical! We ll move on to something with a much greater chance of success an old system for the National Hunt season that is now in full swing What follows is the exact wording of the system. This system is designed to isolate horses who have an outstanding chance of winning on form. It couples together good recent winning form the best kind of form and the opinion of a form expert. It applies only to handicap chases as I have found that chase form is more reliable than hurdle form. A list of rules is set out and for a horse to qualify as a system selection it must meet all qualifying conditions. To follow the elimination procedure it is necessary to refer to a copy of a racing paper and to the Daily Mail. By applying all these rules one should be left with an average of one or two bets a week during the main National Hunt season. Rules 1. The selection must run in a handicap chase, excluding novice and selling handicap chases. 2. The horse must be carrying a penalty. 3. The horse must have won its last race which must have been a handicap chase as defined in Rule The horse must have won its previous race by a distance in lengths which equals or exceeds the lbs of the penalty carried in the current race. For example, a horse carrying a 5lb penalty must have won its previous race by 5 lengths or more. 5. The horse must have won its previous race by at least 3 lengths. 6. The horse must be the Spot selection of Formcast of the Daily Mail. 7. The number of runners in the present race must be 14 or less. When operating the system do not be frightened of other penalised runners, but do exercise caution if one of these runners is a potential qualifier in that it won its previous race by a distance which equals or exceeds the lbs of the penalty carried. (I would just add my own comment that I m sure it would be possible to use the form experts of other papers than the Daily Mail. Most have the black spot to indicate the form choice, and although Formcast of the Mail is good I feel that others, including Racing Post Ratings could be used with equal success). SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE Imentioned Quick On The Draw from last month. Sso how has it performed in the interim? The system focuses specifically on a certain draw bias at Kempton s all-weather course. It is very easy to use, so in that regard it gets the thumbs up. As hinted at in the website, Quick On The Draw s long-term profits hinge upon hitting a big priced winner with enough frequency to account for the losing bets; you see, this system backs up to three selections in any qualifying race. I began my trial on 21st September and there have only been eight meetings at Kempton from then to the time of writing. To level stakes we have, broken even. No gain and no loss. This is calculated using bookmaker SP, and as the author indicates, preference would be for Betfair prices, as with some of the bigger priced selections we will be backing at prices which are considerably bigger than bookmaker prices. With 12

13 the use of Betfair, I suspect we would be in profit especially considering the winners have come at bookmaker s SPs of 8/1, 10/1, 9/1, 5/1 and 2/1. As you can see though, with the fact that Quick On The Draw backs up to three selections per race, any losing run can quickly erode profit made. This is certainly a system to keep the right side of, and with the focus on Kempton, bets will be few and far between but the winter all-weather season should help in that respect. The easy lay method If you go to tipsters/tipster-performance.php and look for Horse4course race tips (LAY) you will see the frustration with this lay system at present. It just doesn t seem to go anywhere and seems a terrible waste of time. This is a short-term reaction of course. The results are calculated using FIXED LIABILITY. This means that losses are controlled you know in advance how much you will lose if any selection wins, BUT your returns will be compromised by price. The bigger the price when laying to fixed liability, the smaller the return. The shorter the price laid, the better the return. A profit of 0.28 points since I began testing from 163 bets just seems too much work for too little reward. There are a lot of selections generally each day, and although this system really is simplicity itself, it is not profiting to the extent I personally would want for the effort expended. The 5-Year consistency plan Bad timing on my part I think! I received the 5 year consistency plan, (another from on the 22nd September. The website relates three winners between the 15th-19th September at 25/1, 15/8 and 14/1. I have tracked these three horses down and, indeed, they were system bets on the 15th September, 18th September and 19th September, so this is interesting. The 25% strike rate tells you that this is a system which will be reliant on big priced winners coming along, such as those above. Can you live with losing 75% of bets? Losing runs will be inevitable. Faith then rests with the hope of future big-priced horses to negate the expected losing runs. I have spoken to system author Derek Nadin personally and he is certainly no fly-by-night. The system contains rules for the National Hunt season and rules separately for the Flat season. With the claimed big-priced winners being verified, this augurs well for the 5 Year Consistency plan as it stands with my short trial, and I will definitely be following this system and reporting back. This tipping service makes use of the price movements near the off time in races and horses become qualifiers or non-qualifiers based on whether they hit a target price. This month gone, nonqualifiers, as they are termed, have accounted for winners priced 7/1, 8/1, 16/1, 7/2, 15/2 and 6/1. An impressive haul. Of course clarification is required as to whether these non qualifiers should be factored into betting. This will determine the success for those who have joined the service. Bets are characterized by just info horses and official account bets. The official account bets have had a poor run from September through to October but some profit has been clawed back with the last two account bets five points win at 4/5 and 6 points win at 4/5. Since October 2009 began with wins at great prices 4/1 and 6/1 followed by eight no return bets and one each-way return bet. Two 2nd places extremely frustrating. The just info is very interesting each day, and your profit and satisfaction will be determined by your choice of whether to back these selections or not. It looks as if the guys behind this service do have genuine information both in the UK and Ireland and this looks to be a genuine service worthy of following. However, I have had no experience with the service over the jumps. It would seem the website is taking something of a makeover. The results will be available for inspection and there are a wide variety of services to choose from which offer low entry costs. please turn over 13

14 You should know by now the vagaries of loss retrieval services, but another month with 100% strike rate. I will repeat what I said last month. As long as you are aware of the risks associated with loss retrieval, and accept that a losing day can lose a lot of profit gained, then this service has delivered to date. On the subject of loss retrieval services, please do beware of This is the reincarnation of the now defunct which showed the poor side of loss retrieval tipping services. JCA Racing is best avoided. Whilst on the subject of loss retrieval systems, here s a report from David McLean on one which he was pleased with: This American Sports Betting System is from John Morrison and covers Basketball (NBA) and Baseball (MLB). The MLB season runs from Apr-Oct and gives selections. Teams will play each other three times in succession (bets A, B & C). This system went 49-0 in 2009 and 43-0 in The last time this had a losing C bet was in This is straightforward betting. Your tip (called a pick in America) will look like the following: Oakland (A) v Seattle. Go to your betting account, check the odds and place your bet. Meanwhile the NBA season runs from Nov-Mar and gives picks. Again this system uses A, B and C bets. This system won 79-0 in and 80-1 in The basketball system uses an advanced form of handicap betting which isn t offered by any British bookmakers that I can find. You may get a pick such as: Washington (A) v Utah. Go to your American betting account where you can handicap bet Washington with a 6 point start for odds of You can also buy points which means you buy an extra 2 or 3 points to give Washington an 8 or 9 point start. Of course the more points you buy the lower the odds you receive. Typically buying 3 points will reduce the odds to As this system uses loss retrieval I set a modest goal of winning only $10 per game on basketball and $20 per game on baseball. This helps keep losses reasonable if the C bet fails. The system claims a 97% strike rate but remember this is per series, so bets A and B may lose, but C usually wins. Note: There is also a bonus NFL betting system ebook provided when joining, but this system does not include picks, unlike the baseball and basketball which do. How much does it cost? Currently $197 Money saving tip: Go to ClickBank.com (it s free to join) then buy this system using your affiliate link. You ll receive a cheque for $100 as your affiliate commission. Note: Obviously this is in US dollars so you need to open a dollar account to bank it. This system is really only costing you $97. You re also covered by ClickBank s 60 day guarantee. Websites (To check the results using your mobile phone.) Tip: Betfair and Ladbrokes offer the best prices on American sports. Drawbacks Having to open a US betting account to use the buy points option for basketball is a negative. Your account is kept in US dollars leaving you open to currency fluctuations. The website also claims to include picks for life, which is misleading as after 12 months using the system I was told the NBA bets were being upgraded to a new 2.0 version. Of course I would receive the old 1.0 version picks, but these would only be sent out 15 minutes before the game began! As most games begin after midnight UK time this was not a good option so I bought the new version for $125. The same stunt was pulled for the following MLB season. I dislike this as it s misleading to offer a lifetime of picks when they fully intend to charge you each new season. Conclusion The high strike rate per series is genuine. You receive three ebooks explaining the system plus qualifying selections ed to you for both basketball and baseball. The negatives already mentioned will bring my final rating down as there is simply no need for sneaky marketing tricks with a good system like this. 14

15 Final score: 7 out of 10. Many thanks to David for that report on another loss retrieval service that he has made work. An 8 point profit since the last newsletter is welcome. This is a one-a-day lay service, and is something you can easily replicate for yourself to be honest. As I discussed in my One-A-Day update earlier, the expectation with one-a-day betting is for a high strike rate. After all, we are selecting just one bet a day. And remember, with laying, it is the equivalent of backing short odds on shots. My own personal niggle there aside, at least the service is moving forward. This service costs 77 per month which is a little big for a one-a-day lay service. This must be factored into your laying stake to ensure that this amount is covered before you are able to realise a profit. Tipsters and systems whose results are online for your inspection s results are updated to 30th September. provide results for the Dodgy Favourites lay system which is being sold at Sportsworldpublishing. Tipsters Track I ve am followed and both from the same guy and so far, the last months results are poor. You realise this when there is a clause enacted after a poor bad run for both of these services. Both are football tipping services, focusing on backing and laying, but simply have not performed to date. Still, it is only fair to continue the testing as it is only October and there is plenty of football left to be played. is a general tipping service covering all events. It is another one-a-day service so, as I mentioned with Flatlays, the expectation on our parts should be for a decent strike rate. October has been very poor indeed. One of the saving graces of this service is its full transparency. Profits have been made regularly in previous months, and to be fair, October is the transitional period where the flat is winding down, and the jumps winding up. 15 The results are fully available for inspection on the website and hide nothing. I will continue to monitor this service because I think, if previous-to-october results can be replicated, then profits will return. Once this service resumes its profitable ways then the 30 per month fee will look reasonable. I suspect it is better to keep a watching brief until some form has returned. I warned you about this website last month, that it had all of the triggers that I was used to seeing with glossy brochure scam tipsters. Well, he hasn t disappointed. Wave bye bye to the 4/1 and above 75% strike rate and hello to the odds on shots (where did they come from? I thought he didn t back under 4/1!). And so to the second part of the operation the request to place bets on his behalf. This has occurred before and Mr. Walters has effectively followed the scam tipster blueprint to the letter. Avoid please! TCS Publications of Newport, Wales Beware of this lot who are operating the old small field scam, and have been found out, having given two friends two different horses in the same race as tips. This scam works by choosing a small field (say five horse race. They then split their targeted audience into five different sets, and provide the first set with one horse, the seond set with the second horse in the race and so on. The set of people who happened to be given the winner will receive follow-up offers. And Finally... What Can a Hearing Aid Consultant Teach You About Making 2,000 Per Month Spread Betting The Financial Markets? There a bit of a story to this one, so bear with me. Last year Wilson P Williams a self-taught trader who also happens to be a hearing aid consultant told me about his trading system. As I get hundreds of these kind of approaches every year I passed his details on to please turn over

16 Dave Evans (editor of What Really Profits) to test and report back. Dave got a bunch of testers to put the system through the usual real life testing. I completely forgot about it but was delighted to hear some very positive feedback. The strategy worked as claimed aiming as it does to just pick up 10 points a day either trading in the morning or evening using a simple indicator-based system. But what made this stand out, was the almost universal praise for the support and encouragement given by Wilson to all his students. Not only does he offer very personal support and guidance, he also sends out regular s showing his trades plus (and this really does set him apart from many others), he is very much focused on helping to debvelop a positive trading mentality. So even if you have tried and failed at the trading game before this could just be the one to help you become a more successful trader faster and with less risk and stress. Take a look at the enclosed report to find out exactly how. Or go to: It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: Fax: Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No Vat Reg No Copyright What Really Wins Money