Decision Tools to Make Management and Marketing Decisions Kevin Dhuyvetter and Glynn Tonsor Agricultural Economists Kansas State University www.agmanager.info K State Decision Tools Cattle Price Oriented (http:///tools/default.asp) Expectations on Feeder Cattle Cash Prices http://www.beefbasis.com/ Examine Feeder Cattle Risk Management Alternatives K State Feeder Cattle Risk Management Tool Project Premium/Discount of Calf/Steer Attributes K State Feeder Cattle Price Analyzer Stocker Breakeven Selling/Purchasing Prices Cattle Breakeven Selling and Purchase Prices K State Decision Tools Management Oriented (http:///tools/default.asp) Value of Beef Replacements KSU Beef Replacements Beef Cow Lease Agreements KSU CowLease Determining Flint Hills Pasture Rents KSU Graze.xls Determining Cost of Caring for Cows KSU Cow Wintering Costs.xls
Price forecast for feeder calf What is your forecast for the price of a 538 lb steer in Springfield on May 7, 2012? 1. $130 140 2. $140 150 3. $150 160 32% 32% 26% 4. $160 170 5. $170 180 6. $180 190 11% 7. >$190 Value of a replacement heifer How much are you willing to pay for a replacement heifer (similar quality as the rest of your herd)? 1. $800 1000 2. $1000 1200 3. $1200 1400 4. $1400 1600 5. $1600 1800 6. > $1800 7. Does not apply 6% 39% 22% 33% Backgrounding costs If you are backgrounding calves this winter (or did), what would you estimate your cost of gain to be (excluding interest)? 1. < $50 2. $50 65 3. $65 80 4. $80 95 5. $95 110 6. > $110 7. Does not apply 13% 27% 4 2
www.beefbasis.com How much can I pay for a heifer/cow? Input Output KSU Beef Replacements.xls developed to help producers consider how much they can pay for replacement females given various assumptions. (Excel spreadsheet available on www.agmanager.info) How much can I pay for stocker cattle? Notable AgManager Resources /livestock/marketing/ Buy Sell.xls developed to help producers estimate breakeven purchase prices for feeder calves they are buying and breakeven selling prices for calves they are feeding given various assumptions. Weekly commentary & newsletters Current & historical price information Risk management/forecasting tools (Excel spreadsheet available on www.agmanager.info)
Other References of Notable Interest: /livestock/budgets/production/ Value of Gain (Situation and Decision Tool Overview) Cattle Cycles (Historical Overview and Implications) KSU Beef Replacement (Calculate Economic Value of Purchasing Replacements) Regular Newsletters & Commentary KSU Radio Interview /livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/ OR www.ksre.k state.edu/news/desktopdefault.aspx?tabid=66 Weekly, released on Mondays (Tonsor, Peel, LMIC) In the Cattle Markets www.lmic.info/memberspublic/inthecattlemarket/cattlemktsframe.html Weekly (Mark, Feuz, Petry, Riley/Anderson) Recent Cattle Finishing Returns /livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/finishingreturns/ monthly updates based on Focus on Feedlots newsletter Regular Situation Update Commentary: LMIC Chart of the Week www.lmic.info/index.shtml Weekly Price & Production Summary www.lmic.info/priprod/pandp.html Quick Market Reports www.lmic.info/quick/quickdr.html Current Price & Basis Information Futures Markets www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/ OR /livestock/marketing/futures/ LC, FC, LH & C, SB, S, W Cash Markets /livestock/marketing/graphs/default.asp#price Charts /livestock/marketing/database/default.asp#cattle and Beef Databases Dodge City, Pratt, & Salina 700 800 lb steer; KS Direct Slaughter steer prices Basis (Cash Futures) Information /livestock/marketing/graphs/default.asp#basis Charts BeefBasis.com (www.beefbasis.com/ )
Risk management and return forecasting tools available: Feeder Cattle Sales Risk Management Tool Compare expected sales prices of alternative FC marketing strategies /livestock/marketing/lrp/ Feedlot Profitability Tool: NAIBER s Feeding Risk Analyzer Forecasts feedlot returns and variability in returns for future placements www.naiber.org/cattleriskanalyzer/ BeefBasis.com Decision support for hedging feeder cattle (output for cow calf; input for feedlots) www.beefbasis.com/home/tabid/53/default.aspx Weekly email distribution of AgManager updates http://listserv.ksu.edu/web?subed1=agmanager UPDATE&A=1 OR email your request to: Rich Llewelyn [rvl@ksu.edu] 18