The ICT workforce and e-leadership demand and supply (2014-2020) Tobias Hüsing, Senior Research Consultant, empirica GmbH Marianne Kolding, Vice President IDC European e-skills 2014 Conference e-leadership and ICT Professionalism
Content e-skills: trends in ICT professional jobs What happened in the last two years? Forecasts: where are we going? e-leadership skills: quantification and forecast
million ICT workforce today and since 2000 8 7 7.3 7.4 7.3 2011-13: 0.2% p.a. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.7 4.8% p.a. 4.1%* 3.3% p.a. 2.6% p.a. 0.9% p.a. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Broad definition (data only 2011-2013) Core definition * 2010-2011 break in series Source: empirica based on Eurostat LFS data
Structural changes of the ICT workforce - EU27, 2011-2013 29.4% 4.5% Broad definition (previous slide) Core definition (previous slide) -20.9% 6.6% -26.8% 0.6% total Management, architecture and analysis Core ICT professional level Other ICT professional level Core ICT associate/ technician level Other ICT associate/ technician level ICT managers Management and organization analysts (partly) Systems analysts Software developers Web and multimedia developers Applications programmers Other software and app developers and analysts Database designers and administrators Systems administrators Computer network professionals Other database and network professionals Electronics engineers Telecommunications engineers IT trainers ICT sales professionals ICT operations technicians ICT user support technicians Computer network and systems technicians Web technicians Electronics engineering technicians Process control technicians not elsewhere classified Air traffic safety electronics technicians Medical imaging and therapeutic equipment technicians Medical records and health information technicians Broadcasting and audio-visual technicians Telecommunications engineering technicians Source: empirica based on Eurostat LFS data
Workforce structure change dynamics EU28 2013 - Total: 7,325,000 Other ICT associate/ technician level 1,045,000 Core ICT associate/ technician level 1,289,000 Management, architecture and analysis 1,763,000 Other ICT practioners - professional level 618,000 Core ICT practioners - professional level 2,608,000
Workforce structure change dynamics Vocational & University Business University Career mobility / stack effect? Major recruitment channel Blurring border between IT and business jobs
Index - prevalence of top ICT jobs % of workforce in ICT jobs 50,000 ICT workers Source: empirica, based on Eurostat LFS data > +1SD > +0.5SD > Avg. < Avg. < -0.5SD < -1SD Management, architecture and analysis Core ICT professional level Other ICT professional level Core ICT associate/ technician level Other ICT associate/ technician level FI NL LU SE UK DK BE IE DE EE AT LV MT FR BG CZ SI ES CY PL LT IT HU PT GR HR SK RO
Index - prevalence of top ICT jobs % of workforce in ICT jobs Source: empirica, based on Eurostat LFS data > +1SD > +0.5SD > Avg. < Avg. < -0.5SD < -1SD Management, architecture and analysis Core ICT professional level Other ICT professional level Core ICT associate/ technician level Other ICT associate/ technician level FI NL LU SE UK DK BE IE DE EE AT LV MT FR BG CZ SI ES CY PL LT IT HU PT GR HR SK RO
ICT budgets through the crisis 2012: expectations of recovery reflected in budgets 2013: optimism dampened. Renewed focus on cost. New projects not involving cost efficiencies postponed 2014: situation remain tense with IT budgets growing slowly (up 2.2% - driven by software investments up 4.5%) 2015 outlook: continued nervous conditions but IT budgets expected to increase slightly more 2014 2013 2012 0% 50% 100% Decrease Increase Stay the same Questions: Considering 2012, how did your IT spending develop? Now considering 2013, how do you expect IT spending to develop? In 2014, do you expect your external IT spending to increase, decrease or stay the same? Source: IDC European Pulse Survey, December 2012 (n=550) and IDC European Vertical Market Survey, November 2013 (n=1,309)
Forecast - The Impact of the Economy No absolute correlation between economic development and ICT spending hence no direct correlation with ICT jobs Part of spending are on multi-year contracts ICT is critical for businesses and organisations to function so budgets have to be maintained GDP 1.7% CAGR 2013-20 ICT spending 3.2% CAGR 2013-20 IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Twitter: @IDC 10
An Indicative Roadmap of Technologies Now (2014)... Cloud Computing, Mobile Apps Some social business Soon (2-3 years)... Big Data, Social Tech close to mainstream Increasing diffusion of IoT Not Long ( 2020) Convergence of main trends IoT & Cloud & Big Data 11
Globalisation Redeployment New onshore positions By 2020: 1.5% of jobs demanded will be lost to offshore Most jobs lost (3.1%) will relate to applications e-leadership skills are hard to offshore
Trends Influencing Development in Core vs Management Skills Core Offshoring Cloud Automation New technologies Security Business insight 2020: 40% Management Business/IT integration Innovation Industry insights e-leadership 2013: 22% 3 rd Platform % of IT spending 13
Jobs and demand potential Forecast 2020 9,000,000 8,800,000 EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario 8,650,000 8,809,000 8,600,000 8,400,000 8,200,000 8,000,000 7,800,000 7,600,000 7,400,000 7,200,000 7,700,000 7,866,000 8,060,000 7,594,000 337,000 7,598,000 270,000 262,000 7,529,000 7,437,000 7,325,000 Demand potential total 8,270,000 584,000 462,000 7,686,000 8,471,000 825,000 769,000 potential 692,000 7,780,000 Jobs total 7,881,000 7,984,000 660,000 realised 7,000,000 Source: empirica and IDC 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
431,000 Forecast 2020 - Potential for 820,000 additional jobs on top of 660,000 new jobs Management, architecture and analysis 820,000 Potential additional demand 138,000 68,000 Core ICT professional level Other ICT professional assumed level flat 453,000 Core ICT associate/ technician level Source: empirica and IDC 660,000 Realised by 2020 Other ICT associate/ technician assumed level flat
e-leadership skills Skills for ICT based innovation Survey of business economy enterprises (NL, UK, DE) Quantify e-leadership e-leadership manifests in successful innovation Recent ICT innovation Involvement of IT dept., business lines, external parties? Who proposed innovation? Who has acted as project client? Any innovative IT project? no 71% yes 29% Base: all businesses 10+ empl. Source: empirica, Survey NL, UK, DE 2013
e-leadership quantification 900,000 800,000 802,000 250+ 50-249 700,000 600,000 568,000 239,000 20-49 10-19 500,000 145,000 188,000 400,000 300,000 140,000 147,000 Where e-leaders are 200,000 108,000 100,000 0 176,000 proposing innovative IT projects 229,000 acting as internal client to innovative IT project Business 59% IT dept. 41% Source: empirica, Survey NL, UK, DE 2013. Data for EU, grossed up using Structural Business Statistics (Eurostat) Base: all businesses with ICT innovation Source: empirica, Survey NL, UK, DE 2013
e-leaders: Jobs and demand potential Proposed e-leadership measurement and forecast 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 568,000 592,000 620,000 651,000 683,000 715,000 746,000 776,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 CAGR: 4.6% e-leadership workforce estimate: proposing ICT innovation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: empirica
Conclusions Number of jobs keeps growing despite unfavourable economic context Job growth largest in highly skilled jobs Increasing excess demand even at very cautious growth assumptions Trend in ICT management jobs has been at almost Ø14% p.a. over two years Cautious forecast expects demand increase to continue at 4.6% p.a., but supply will be increasingly scarce Trend in core professional/associate jobs has been at Ø2.2% and Ø3.2% growth p.a. Cautious forecast expects demand increase expected to continue at about 2% p.a., but supply will be increasingly scarce Some technician/associate level and peripheral jobs are declining in numbers Bottlenecks especially in highest skilled tech jobs
Conclusions ICT spending expected to return to moderate growth levels Main digital trends feeding the IT investment growth in the next 2-3 years: data analytics and social business technologies Integration of novel trends into business requires combination of business acumen and tech savvy e-leadership skills in demand but development of metrics for demand is in its infancy yet
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